Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Russia isn't sending their best:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573420510092087297?s=20&t=QQ92q3a0...

RIP... 

He’s calling hits on angels now…

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1573337663561777155

The Russian army is raping, pillaging and murdering civilians en masse like the Mongol horde. Russia is a terrorist state like ISIS or Al Qaeda. You don't negotiate with terrorists, you defeat them.

[NOVA Green]

Follow-Up on forced Russian Mobilization stories... this one courtesy of The Washington Post.

“It’s just hell here; they are grabbing everyone,” a resident of Sosnovo-Ozerskoye, a rural settlement of about 6,000 people in the eastern Siberian region of Buryatia near Russia’s border with Mongolia, wrote to Victoria Maldeva, an activist with the Free Buryatia Foundation who has collected hundreds of reports about mass mobilization.

“Drunk men who are supposed to leave the very same day are roaming the town square,” the Sosnovo-Ozerskoye resident wrote. “Everyone knows each other here. This is impossible to bear. Women are crying, chasing the bus, and men pleaded for forgiveness before they left as they know they are facing certain death.”

The Free Buryatia Foundation and similar activists working in Yakutia, another remote, impoverished region of Russia, in northeastern Siberia, said they were concerned that the mobilization is disproportionately targeting ethnic minorities that live in these areas, many thousands of miles from Moscow.

“When it comes to Buryatia, this is not a partial mobilization, this is a total mobilization,” the head of the Free Buryatia Foundation, Alexandra Garmazhapova, said in a television interview. “And it amazes me how people who know how much Vladimir Putin likes to lie believed that this will be a partial mobilization.”

Garmazhapova said her volunteers stayed up all night on Wednesday and Thursday helping men, some as old as 62, who were awakened by schoolteachers forced to go door-to-door in Buryatian villages at night and hand notices.

The rights workers said they believed that Russian military recruiters are focusing their efforts in rural and remote areas, rather than big cities like Moscow or St. Petersburg, because a lack of media outlets and protest activity makes it easier for them to enforce recruitment orders and to appease the regional leaders seeking to curry favor with Putin. The Asian ethnic populations of Siberia and the Russian Far East are also less likely to have personal and family connections to Ukraine.

[NOVA Green]

Isbcs  banning Russian "Draft Dodgers" the best move forward for the EU and if so why?

Sounds to me like a mixture of both virtue signaling and attempts to punish "Russia" for Ukraine War under guise of cutting off hard Western cash going directly into Russia.

Surely the EU should recognize the "Refusniks" and welcome them in, as opposed to forcing them to stay home and build a potential rebellion in Russia proper?

The draft dodgers fleeing the forced mobilization are much more likely to identify with dissident political formations and why should the EU turn their back on those who don't want to fight in Mr. Putin's War in Ukraine?

Way way back in the 1960s when the US created the Draft during the War in Vietnam (We didn't quite call it a special operation initially), there were all sorts of innovative ways of dodging the draft, even for those without all sorts of deferments that the wealthy and well connected had.

We now are seeing stories in Russian Social Media, which almost represent stories I learned as a child regarding how parents didn't want to send their kids to Vietnam.

In Russia, googling "how to break your arm" searches are spiking... spouses are threatening to break their husbands bones so they are disabled and not have to go to war.

Meanwhile, for a musical interlude the great late Phil Ochs (Legendary American Folk Singer at the height of the Vietnam War).

Courtesy of NOVA GREEN PIRATE ATLAS RADIO

Draft Dodger Rag

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1573337663561777155

The Russian army is raping, pillaging and murdering civilians en masse like the Mongol horde. Russia is a terrorist state like ISIS or Al Qaeda. You don't negotiate with terrorists, you defeat them.

Ofc this math changes when those terrorists have nuclear weapons, sadly.

[Splash]

Good article from the New York Times. In addition to the quotes below, it appears that Putin was one of the lead architects of the strategy to encircle Kyiv and topple the Zelensky government at the beginning of the war. After that failed, he took more of a back seat and allowed his generals to plan the summer offensive in the Donbas. Now, after the Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv, he's taken a lead role again.


As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy - NYT

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

But American officials briefed on highly sensitive intelligence said that behind the scenes Mr. Putin is taking on an even deeper role in the war, including telling commanders that strategic decisions in the field are his to make. Although Mr. Putin has accepted some recommendations from military commanders, including the mobilization of civilians, his involvement has created tensions, American officials said.

Some American officials said they saw trouble ahead for the Russian military in the southern theater. A senior U.S. official said this week that Ukraine was well on its way to repeating in the south the gains its forces had managed during a lightning offensive in the northeast earlier this month.

In addition to blocking a retreat from Kherson, Mr. Putin has raised doubts about Russian efforts to consolidate their position in the northeast near the Oskil River, which the Ukrainian counteroffensive reached this month. Mr. Putin, an American official said, has opposed pulling back there as well, because he is reluctant to hand anything to Mr. Zelensky that looks like a win.

[NOVA Green]

To briefly rewind back to the whole "Russians against the War Movement"...

When I was a teenager during Iraq War 1.0, was somehow involved in a direct action scene in the middle of the night where we pasted anti-military posters on window panes of multiple military recruitment centers throughout our small town Oregon City, glued the locks on the recruitment offices throughout the city...

Many of us had parents who had served in the Vietnam War, so naturally we don't want anything like that bcs of Bush Senior's War Against Iraq.

I would imagine that although we aren't likely to see to much on the news from the Russian totalitarian regime, that recruiting stations are likely getting hit with Molotov Cocktails in many places on a semi-regular basis, now that "Mother Russia", is sending more and more young men into the "meat grinder".

Burn them all down... Putin's War in Ukraine is NOT Russian people's War of Agression and Occupation of Ukraine.

May the Russian youth rise up and torch the centers that attempt to enslave them because of the hubris of one leader of Russia, who appears to fashion himself after Catherine the Great... (Don't know if Putin is high on crack or what, but still dude is absolutely nuts--- at least with former top Communist leaders of the Soviet Union we had a sense of where folxs were at).

[Storr]

A quite rare Russian 2S23 Nona-SVK captured by Ukraine has already been repainted and is in AFU service. According to this website there are only around 50 in Russian serivce.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1573523078642008064?s=20&t=BEQ3phLN0...


And you guessed it, the 2S23 is built on the chassis of the BTR-80:

[Sol]

Does jaichind truly believe that people are gonna freeze to death or was this meant as a figure of speech?

It's hard not to get the impression that a lot of people don't understand what winters in North Western Europe are actually like, isn't it? Yes there will be problems, but the deep, terrifying colds that you get with a true Continental Climate are essentially not a thing: outside the highest upland regions they don't turn up as a constant issue until you reach, as it happens, Ukraine.

As an American, my assumption before learning about these matters was that Northern Europe had a climate similar to the properly temperate climate I knew best...Illinois.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Good article from the New York Times. In addition to the quotes below, it appears that Putin was one of the lead architects of the strategy to encircle Kyiv and topple the Zelensky government at the beginning of the war. After that failed, he took more of a back seat and allowed his generals to plan the summer offensive in the Donbas. Now, after the Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv, he's taken a lead role again.

Good news for Ukraine then, I suppose.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Isbcs  banning Russian "Draft Dodgers" the best move forward for the EU and if so why?

Sounds to me like a mixture of both virtue signaling and attempts to punish "Russia" for Ukraine War under guise of cutting off hard Western cash going directly into Russia.

Surely the EU should recognize the "Refusniks" and welcome them in, as opposed to forcing them to stay home and build a potential rebellion in Russia proper?

The draft dodgers fleeing the forced mobilization are much more likely to identify with dissident political formations and why should the EU turn their back on those who don't want to fight in Mr. Putin's War in Ukraine?

Way way back in the 1960s when the US created the Draft during the War in Vietnam (We didn't quite call it a special operation initially), there were all sorts of innovative ways of dodging the draft, even for those without all sorts of deferments that the wealthy and well connected had.

We now are seeing stories in Russian Social Media, which almost represent stories I learned as a child regarding how parents didn't want to send their kids to Vietnam.

In Russia, googling "how to break your arm" searches are spiking... spouses are threatening to break their husbands bones so they are disabled and not have to go to war.

Meanwhile, for a musical interlude the great late Phil Ochs (Legendary American Folk Singer at the height of the Vietnam War).

Courtesy of NOVA GREEN PIRATE ATLAS RADIO

Draft Dodger Rag

They might be overcorrecting for the migrant crisis issues?

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%      +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%      +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -7.2%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%      +3.4%          +1.6%

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -2.4%       +0.1%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.4%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%

Expected Russia's economic prospects to continue to improve although when compared to the Spring 2022 Russia's GDP loss is now less than expected but is worse in 2023 which tells a story of Russia being able to mitigate short-term losses but cannot stop the long-term impact of sanctions.   

The inflation situation gets worse in the EU and UK and with both areas behind the USA curve in terms of monetary policy it is expected that economic growth in the EU and UK in 2022 improve but will see a much worse 2023.  With the USA getting serious about the monetary policy the inflation situation in the USA gets better while economic prospects in 2022 dim but this also means while its 2023 situation still is getting worse the scale of decline in prospects is more limited.  PRC gets a mild positive impact from the war which helps its inflation to be under control while its economic prospects in 2022 dim on COVID lockdowns and real estate bubble bursting.  Due to PRC inflation being under control 2023 PRC GDP prospects seems fairly bright.

Eyeballing the economic losses of Russia vs the collective West the impact clearly is much worse for Russia but given the collective West is about 13 times bigger in terms of GDP PPP than Russia I estimate that the 2022-2023 economic loss impact between Russia and collective West is about 3 to 1 meaning for every unit of GDP loss in Russia there are about 3 units of GDP loss in the collective west.  The collective West can clearly afford it given even collective political will.

[Woody]

General Mizintsev, who oversaw the decisive victory over Ukrainians at Mariupol capturing several thousands of Azov troops and veterans of the 2014-2022 Donbass war, will now serve as Deputy Defense Minister in charge of logistics. Most likely seen as the man for the job with mobilization going on right now.

https://twitter.com/DimitriASimes/status/1573621517623099393

[CumbrianLefty]

Good article from the New York Times. In addition to the quotes below, it appears that Putin was one of the lead architects of the strategy to encircle Kyiv and topple the Zelensky government at the beginning of the war. After that failed, he took more of a back seat and allowed his generals to plan the summer offensive in the Donbas. Now, after the Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv, he's taken a lead role again.

Good news for Ukraine then, I suppose.

Indeed, dismal failure when Putin was in charge followed by *relative* success when he left it more to the actual military - and now.....??

[Virginiá]

Only the best for the Second Army of the World

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573604558835785729

[Virginiá]

Good reason why despite Ukraine capturing so many Russian tanks and other armored vehicles, it's not good enough in the long run as half the tanks the Russians are trying to field don't work, and the other half that supposedly do, many of them have a lot of broken components that inhibit their effectiveness. There's only so many repairs even the Ukrainians can do.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1573561620151746562

This is a fairly common gripe from Rus telegram-world

[Person Man]

General Mizintsev, who oversaw the decisive victory over Ukrainians at Mariupol capturing several thousands of Azov troops and veterans of the 2014-2022 Donbass war, will now serve as Deputy Defense Minister in charge of logistics. Most likely seen as the man for the job with mobilization going on right now.

https://twitter.com/DimitriASimes/status/1573621517623099393

You mean the city that took two months to fall and who all the nasty last standers just got out of?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573568521560379393?s=46&t=--xwxd3T...

[DINGO Joe]

Uh oh, they're starting to cooperate.  This could get dangerous.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1573662086927884288

[jaichind]

https://militaryleak.com/2022/09/21/slovenia-to-supply-28-m-55s-main-battle-tanks-to-ukraine/

"Slovenia to Supply 28 M-55S Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine"

M-55S tanks are really an upgrade of old T-55 tanks.  The fact that Ukraine is taking these tanks while Solvenia is taking German tanks to replace them shows the critical role of tank doctrine.  The Ukraine tank doctrine is still based on the old USSR tank doctrine which means that they can operate better tanks that fit that doctrine even if they are based on tanks as old as T-55. 

Of course deals like this indicate that NATO might now be running out of T-72s to send to Ukraine.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1573675212884901890

[jaichind]

Russian mobilization includes General Cat

[parochial boy]

I mean it’s all quite morbid when you consider that these guys are all being sent off basically to go and die. And they’re perfectly aware of this themselves.

You can laugh at the incompetence and all but on a moral level, sending off ethnic minorities and the poor to their deaths like that is quite sick.

[Splash]

Confirmation that the Ukrainians have liberated Yats'kivka in northern Donetsk Oblast. This is notable because it's on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1573629624906661888

[jaichind]

TASS reports turnout on the first day of referendums are

Luhansk         21.9%
Donetsk         23.6%
Zaporizhzhia   20.5%
Kherson         15.0%