Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Goldman Sachs had a report out this week expecting European natural gas prices to plunge soon saying that Europe has solved its natural gas problem for this winter.

JP-Morgan analysts also think that European gas prices will be dropping soon and that a combination of changing gas usage and high reserves mean that if there are going to be any issues they won't be until next year. Specifically "Even with assuming zero supply from Russia going forward, storage likely won’t dip below 30% this winter, leaving Europe with a buffer for an extraordinary cold spell."

This is the kind of economics story you'd expect Jaichind to have posted but I guess he just missed all of this positive news for some reason.

Only positive news for Russia are truly positive news.

[Storr]

The CEO of Ukrainian Railways is in Balakliya, says regular passenger trains will resume tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1570145989461262337?s=20&t=PaBFGXHIE87P...


https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1570146654015344640?s=20&t=PaBFGXHIE87P...

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1570197278840979457

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/status/1569536372012195841

[NOVA Green]

The reality of war is starting to come home to the Russian border city of Belgorod as local residents become increasingly concerned by the noise of war as Ukrainian troops advance closer.

Certainly the "stress" they might be experiencing is certainly nothing like those in most cities in Ukraine, even those far removed from the front lines.

Military trucks and armored personnel carriers spray-painted with the letter Z rumble through intersections, and groups of men in camouflage walk the streets and shop for military goods like thermal underwear. Refugees pour in from territories in Ukraine that were recently lost to the enemy.

The sounds of nearby explosions have become regular occurrences in Belgorod, 25 miles from the Ukrainian border, and anxious store owners call the police reporting imagined bomb threats, a sign of the paranoia that is starting to spread. Residents express fear about what will come next, with some even speculating that Ukrainian troops could take a step they have avoided for nearly seven months and enter Russian territory.

“It is as if they are already here,” an ashen-faced woman told a merchant at the city’s central market, after the boom of an explosion.

The mood at the market, a warren of stalls selling clothes, home goods and military gear, was tense. Though the city of Belgorod is not being directly attacked, Russia’s military air defense is intercepting missiles in the distance. The sounds of the explosions ring out, and in the Komsomolsky neighborhood, homes and property are being hit by debris.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/world/europe/russia-ukraine-border-belgorod.html

[NOVA Green]

Interesting article from the Washington Post earlier today about why Lukashenko is unlikely to join the War in Ukraine on Russia's behalf.

Much longer read, so just a few selected highlights quoted below.

Any Belarusian troops sent to Ukraine would rely on the Russian command infrastructure. With the Russian army already on Belarusian territory and deepening integration between Russia and Belarus moving toward uniting the two countries’ economies and military and political structures, losing control is not in Lukashenko’s interests.

But Lukashenko has been actively demilitarizing the Belarusian army since the invasion, by handing over military equipment and ammunition to Putin. In August, Russia received over 12,000 tons of ammunition from Belarus. These steps relieve pressure on Lukashenko to mobilize the Belarusian army to intervene directly in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia.

Such measures probably reflect Lukashenko’s wariness about allowing the Belarusian army to fall under Russian command, if troops are dispatched into Ukraine. That would give Russia an opportunity to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, which would weaken Lukashenko even further and place Belarus firmly in Putin’s pocket.

Lukashenko continues to hang on to power. However, some of his close political insiders appear to oppose the decision to back Putin’s war against Ukraine. The protracted military conflict in Ukraine has led to ongoing sanctions pressure on the Belarusian economy and on business leaders — including sanctions that specifically target Belarus military leaders.

In April, Lukashenko unsuccessfully attempted to conduct secret negotiations with the West. On April 6, the Belarus minister of foreign affairs sent a confidential letter asking European Union countries to abandon the sanctions policy and restore dialogue with the Belarusian regime. The E.U. did not respond, and the letter was leaked to the media.

A majority of Belarusians do not want their country to take part in the war against Ukraine. According to a Chatham House poll conducted in August, only 5 percent of Belarusians favored sending troops to support Russia, while 2 percent wanted Belarus to side with Ukraine. About 70 percent of Belarusians indicated their refusal to engage in the conflict.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/14/belarus-russia-ukraine-putin-lukashenko/

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile pro-Russian collaborators have been rapidly fleeing, even to Russia itself.

Officials and “volunteers” working for the Russian-installed occupation administration in the Kharkiv region were retreating to the Russian border and setting up temporary camps amid the Ukrainian breakthrough, and pro-Russian officials were urging residents to flee.

The leader of Russia’s governing United Russia party, which runs quasi-government bodies in occupied Ukrainian territories, announced on Telegram that it moved its “volunteer detachment from Balakliya, Kupyansk, Izyum and Volchansk to the border with the Belgorod region.”

“Refugees arrive here, massively leaving the Kharkiv region due to increased shelling launched by Ukrainian nationalists,” the party leader, Andrei Turchak, wrote on his Telegram blog. “People are leaving with their families; there are many children. There are now more than 400 vehicles at the border.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/10/ukraine-kharkiv-russia-retreat-izyum/

Among them are the involuntarily deported. It is important for Ukraine not to give up on these people or dismiss them as collaborators.

So to tie a few threads together having been discussed here in recent days...

We have experienced a bit of heated discussion regarding what constitutes a Russian Collaborator and to what extent individuals who might have collaborated with the Russian Occupation regime might be considered legitimate military targets, even if they occur at the hands of Ukrainian Partisans not affiliated with the Ukrainian Government.

Tilts "kept me honest" (Poker vernacular), by reminding me that not everyone fleeing was necessarily a "collaborator".

Now we have yet another story posted today from a legit and well respected media outlet, reporting "Live from Belgorod".

Long article so apologies for trying to keep my quoting within limits...

In interviews in Belgorod, a Russian city about 25 miles north of the Ukrainian border, a half-dozen Ukrainians, as well as local residents offering them humanitarian aid, said many of those who streamed into Russia had originally welcomed the Russian takeover.

Some had received Russian passports; others, looking for a regular income, took jobs at state hospitals and schools.

Some were stunned by the Russian retreat. At a clothing bank run by volunteers, a Ukrainian woman said she had taken a job in the accounting department of the Russian-installed government in Kupyansk, Ukraine. She left everything behind on Saturday as fighting reached the city, fearing she would have been prosecuted for collaborating with the Russians.

Hundreds of residents of the Russian-occupied territory fled into the greater Belgorod region, according to local authorities. Videos shared by local media outlets last weekend showed a column of cars lined up at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Nearly 1,300 Ukrainians who fled have been housed in the region since, according to its governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov.

“People believed the Russian troops when they said, ‘We won’t leave you,’” said a man who left the city of Balakliya last week as Ukrainian forces swept in. His parents remain in the city. “We ourselves don’t understand what happened.”

In a market in central Belgorod, Russian soldiers who said they had just retreated from the Kharkiv region milled about stalls that sold military gear. The soldiers were trying on leather army boots and warm headwear, selecting cushions used for sitting on frozen ground, and purchasing basic kitchen items like frying pans.

The soldiers had received last-minute directives to fall back from their positions and have since been told that they will be redeploying to man the border in the coming days, three soldiers said.

“We would have been surrounded if we didn’t leave when we did,” one soldier said. “The Ukrainians have a lot more equipment now.”

One soldier said the retreat presented his first break since invading Ukraine in late February. Some soldiers strolling in Belgorod’s city center were visibly inebriated in recent days.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-russian-border-city-pro-kremlin-ukrainians-soldiers-regroup-after-retreat-from-ukraine-11663187679?mod=hp_lead_pos6

[The Dowager Mod]

 
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1569738899404034049

[NOVA Green]

Paging our Aussie Comrade Meclazine, who hasn't posted in a bit on this thread...

Although honestly I might have made at least one "ignorant or absurd post" some years back regarding WW II, where Meclazine and a couple other Aussies challenged me either publicly or via PM to correct my misunderstanding of Australian History.

Needless to say, interested to hear some perspectives from "Down Under" now that Aussie Military Vehicles have been spotted in combat in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570051519705403393?s=20&t=dZt-IWX3oZ5ReN...

[NOVA Green]

Could have sworn that I had posted an article a Month or so back regarding the 10k+ Ukrainian Soldiers going through basic training in Kent County, UK from the Economist.

Haven't tracked my OP down yet, but still looks like Ukrainian forces are arriving from high quality Western Military training exercises and starting to show up as either replacements for depleted UKR military units, or even possibly being added into new military (more cohesive) smaller scale formations.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1570094127827517441?s=20&t=dZt-IW...

[Badger]

Very surprised no one has posted about Putin barely surviving an assassination attempt today (not joking).

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=522277.0

[NOVA Green]

Very surprised no one has posted about Putin barely surviving an assassination attempt today (not joking).

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=522277.0

The entire story sounds a bit "bunk" to me, and a bit more of an attempt to gin up Russian Support for the "War Pigs", as opposed to an actual event. (Meaning deliberate Kremlin Fake News to support flagging Russian public support for the "Special Operation".)

What are the sources for the news story?

Granted my research consisted of a brief "Google Search".

Australia:

Vladimir Putin’s limousine was allegedly attacked in a possible assassination attempt as the war in Ukraine rages on, Kremlin insiders claim.

The Russian tyrant’s car was hit by a “loud bang” on its left front wheel which was followed by “heavy smoke”, sources close to the leader allege.

The Sun reports that Putin’s limo was driven to safety with the president unharmed – but there have been multiple arrests from his security service, it is claimed.

It is reported some of his bodyguards have vanished amid claims secret information about the 69-year-old’s movements were compromised, according to the General GVR Telegram channel.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russian-president-vladimir-putin-survives-another-brutal-assassination-attempt/news-story/2533de4fc82782d7087c7acb3fd8fb6a

UK--- The Mirror

In a separate post, the same source claims that Putin had ordered his glamorous lover Alina Kabaeva, 39, a former Olympic gymnast, to have an abortion leading to a “worsening” of their relations.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putins-limo-attacked-assassination-27993499

There is an old expression which I learned a couple decades back working at the Factory: "Does it pass the Sniff Test?".

At this point gonna call BS on this story, unless we actually see information to the contrary.

Not that there aren't many powerful men in Russia who would likely love to see the backside of Putin, but really don't think this is like Germany in '44 with the suitcase bomb which almost took out Hitler occurred when it was pretty clear that the NAZI regime was on its last legs...

More than willing to be proved wrong, but we need much better sources then a handful of tabloids trying to sell print on mass transit stations.

[Woody]

The most interesting video I have seen in a while from the conflict.

Head of PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin himself, is in a Russian penal colony and gives a speech to convicts about a half year service and a pardon.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1570123353331011586

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103416935923714
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103429342629890
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103438830374912
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570173183155916800

[rc18]

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103416935923714
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103429342629890
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103438830374912
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570173183155916800

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

And you better bet you are going to leave the graveyard and morgues alone! Seriously? I’ve said this from the beginning but it’s really hard to tell this war apart from something like Family Guy, Archer, or any Mel Brooks movie.

[Badger]

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

Or how about, some of you may have sex offenses, but we know that mistakes can be made.

These bastards know exactly who and what they're looking for.

[Person Man]

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

Or how about, some of you may have sex offenses, but we know that mistakes can be made.

These bastards know exactly who and what they're looking for.

Are you thinking of Sudan level sh**t?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1570403249550946305

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103416935923714
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103429342629890
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103438830374912
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570173183155916800

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

And you better bet you are going to leave the graveyard and morgues alone! Seriously? I’ve said this from the beginning but it’s really hard to tell this war apart from something like Family Guy, Archer, or any Mel Brooks movie.

It’s like if Enemy at the Gates were a dark comedy.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103416935923714
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103429342629890
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103438830374912
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570173183155916800

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

And you better bet you are going to leave the graveyard and morgues alone! Seriously? I’ve said this from the beginning but it’s really hard to tell this war apart from something like Family Guy, Archer, or any Mel Brooks movie.

It’s like if Enemy at the Gates were a dark comedy.

Is it too soon for Mike Judge to make a Stalingrad film?

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103416935923714
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103429342629890
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103438830374912
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570173183155916800

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

And you better bet you are going to leave the graveyard and morgues alone! Seriously? I’ve said this from the beginning but it’s really hard to tell this war apart from something like Family Guy, Archer, or any Mel Brooks movie.

It’s like if Enemy at the Gates were a dark comedy.

Is it too soon for Mike Judge to make a Stalingrad film?

If 20 years from now, Russia is even slightly less oppressive than it is now, I'm guessing we'll get quite a few movies from Russia about the current war in this vein.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1570403249550946305

This is good news, but Germany does not produce GMLRS rockets and is "only" supplying 200 munitions this time. Having a certain number of launchers is good for flexibility even if they are not all firing at once, but Ukraine may end up putting more pressure on American GMLRS production, which also caters to other clients and which has hard limits for at least a year.

Most of the unguided rockets that could serve as cheaper, shorter-range alternatives to GMLRS - perhaps against artillery - have been or are soon to be retired, but it would take months to equip them with alternative warheads (the vast majority used to be, or still are, cluster munitions, and are either inert or extremely unlikely to be sent, respectively).

Germany is one of the few potential suppliers for which that isn't true - I wonder if this is potentially a prelude to supplying them. They acquired just shy of 10k unguided, non-cluster munition M26 rockets - they may still have most or all of these. Instead of buying training rockets (which they could now do), they adapted their rockets from their previous MLRS, which could still be combat-effective. They were reported to have over 30k of these in 2019, although some of them are likely to be unsafe for use at this point.

[Storr]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

[Stranger in a strange land]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

Xi undoubtedly has some about the Russian army's poor performance