Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DaleCooper]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

I imagine Xi is terrified. Putin obviously thought that he'd steamroll Ukraine in a week and that turned out to be a total delusion. I'm sure Xi has (or had) similar delusions about his own army's capabilities.

[Aurelius]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

I doubt Xi cares one bit about the atrocities Russia is doing in Ukraine. More likely, he's mad at Putin for making him look like a fool by signing that No Limits Partnership right before the war, as the National People's Congress approaches.

[Person Man]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

I doubt Xi cares one bit about the atrocities Russia is doing in Ukraine. More likely, he's mad at Putin for making him look like a fool by signing that No Limits Partnership right before the war, as the National People's Congress approaches.

Between Putin’s stupidity and his COVID strategy, the US might have to wait until India or even Nigeria becomes a superpower.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1570403249550946305

Well, it's about time they unleased the Dingoes.  I approve.

[DINGO Joe]

Russians considering new strategies

https://mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1570350377878585346


https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1570393330164596739

[Storr]

lol

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1570391974003486721?s=20&t=t_UVXw...

[It’s so Joever]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

I doubt Xi cares one bit about the atrocities Russia is doing in Ukraine. More likely, he's mad at Putin for making him look like a fool by signing that No Limits Partnership right before the war, as the National People's Congress approaches.

Between Putin’s stupidity and his COVID strategy, the US might have to wait until India or even Nigeria becomes a superpower.

Let’s not pretend the US isn’t self imploding either due to the GOP. I think we are entering a strange power vacuum.

[Person Man]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

I doubt Xi cares one bit about the atrocities Russia is doing in Ukraine. More likely, he's mad at Putin for making him look like a fool by signing that No Limits Partnership right before the war, as the National People's Congress approaches.

Between Putin’s stupidity and his COVID strategy, the US might have to wait until India or even Nigeria becomes a superpower.

Let’s not pretend the US isn’t self imploding either due to the GOP. I think we are entering a strange power vacuum.

Well, we might soon have a situation where the greatest threat is literally from within.

[President Johnson]

According to German newssources, Russian Duma considers "inviting" Defense Minister Shoigu for a hearing. This is quite unusual. Apparently there's increasing backlash even in Russia over recent military losses. Has first been reported by a Russian newspaper close to the Kremlin. Maybe he's on his way out?

[Virginiá]

Most of the unguided rockets that could serve as cheaper, shorter-range alternatives to GMLRS - perhaps against artillery - have been or are soon to be retired, but it would take months to equip them with alternative warheads (the vast majority used to be, or still are, cluster munitions, and are either inert or extremely unlikely to be sent, respectively).

IIRC, I also read that the MARS launchers' FCS won't allow launch of submunition rockets.

Mostly I agree that cluster bombs are a scourge to be avoided, but there are some limited situations where they would be useful, such as attacking staging areas, air bases, or really any large base or formation. Nonetheless, I'd be very surprised if those found their way to Ukraine.

Those M26s Germany has would be better off being converted to GMLRS if they chose to use them for Ukraine. Ukraine has Grads (even more launchers and ammo after Kharkiv) for unguided area targeting. Using M270s or HIMARS for that would be risky and not terribly useful, especially since M26s don't have the same range or accuracy as M30s and M31s.

[rc18]

According to German newssources, Russian Duma considers "inviting" Defense Minister Shoigu for a hearing. This is quite unusual. Apparently there's increasing backlash even in Russia over recent military losses. Has first been reported by a Russian newspaper close to the Kremlin. Maybe he's on his way out?

That's worrying.

He might get replaced with someone competent.

[President Johnson]

According to German newssources, Russian Duma considers "inviting" Defense Minister Shoigu for a hearing. This is quite unusual. Apparently there's increasing backlash even in Russia over recent military losses. Has first been reported by a Russian newspaper close to the Kremlin. Maybe he's on his way out?

That's worrying.

He might get replaced with someone competent.

Not sure whether they even have one falling in that category. And any Defense Minister can only influence to the degree Putin lets him.

[ugabug]

According to German newssources, Russian Duma considers "inviting" Defense Minister Shoigu for a hearing. This is quite unusual. Apparently there's increasing backlash even in Russia over recent military losses. Has first been reported by a Russian newspaper close to the Kremlin. Maybe he's on his way out?

That's worrying.

He might get replaced with someone competent.

Don't think it would matter even if he did get replaced with someone more competent since the problems facing the Russian military are too large and entrenched for even a genius to fix while Russia is still in the middle of fighting the war in Ukraine.

[Dereich]

According to German newssources, Russian Duma considers "inviting" Defense Minister Shoigu for a hearing. This is quite unusual. Apparently there's increasing backlash even in Russia over recent military losses. Has first been reported by a Russian newspaper close to the Kremlin. Maybe he's on his way out?

That's worrying.

He might get replaced with someone competent.

I don't think that's fair! He's been a Russian cabinet minister for 31 years under Yeltsin and all the various Putin regimes without falling out of any windows or being arrested for making the wrong person angry. He's definitely competent at something...just maybe not running the Russian military efficiently.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1570526838933557248

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1570526838933557248

Only 600M? I don't understand why they do it in small drips instead of a full long-term aid package numbered in the billions.

[Aurelius]

Crazy thought. What would it take to shoot down GLONASS?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1570526838933557248

Only 600M? I don't understand why they do it in small drips instead of a full long-term aid package numbered in the billions.

There have been previous aid packages in the billions. I believe the largest one so far amounted to $3 billion, which was announced to coincide with Ukrainian Independence Day.

As to your question, my best guess is that the aid is drip fed to reflect what is most needed at that moment in time given ammo burn rates and conditions on the ground. You wouldn't want to apportion all of the aid for artillery only to find out several weeks later that the Ukrainians are in desperate need of something else, like Humvees for example. That said, I kind of think the Biden Administration should seize on the recent success of the counteroffensive to double or triple the most recent aid package that they have requested from Congress. The current request might be enough to last until lame duck session but why not go bigger and let the Ukrainians build up some ample reserves?

 

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Crazy thought. What would it take to shoot down GLONASS?

While a few countries operate anti-satellite weapons AFAIK they've only ever successfully shot down satellites operating in near-earth orbit such as around 1,000km maximum. GPS and GLONASS both operate almost 19,000km away from the earth so unless someone has been working on essentially space-missiles unbeknownst to us, then it'd be pretty difficult.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Crazy thought. What would it take to shoot down GLONASS?

Not worth it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

[NOVA Green]

A huge mass grave site has been found in recently liberated Izium containing (440) individual graves.

Sounds like around 1,000 dead bodies in all have been discovered thus far just within Izium.

Cause of death appears to be from multiple causes, although it is in the early stages of investigation by the forensic teams, and complicated by the length of time between the time of death and exhumation of bodies of the deceased.

Links and quotes both the NYT and Sky News articles below:

New York Times:

A mass burial ground with about 440 individual graves has been found in Izium in the days since the city, in Ukraine’s northeast, was reclaimed from Russian forces in a lightning offensive last week, a senior Ukrainian police official told Sky News on Thursday.

Serhii Bolvinov, the head of the investigative department of the regional police force in Kharkiv, said the bodies would be exhumed and forensically examined as part of an investigation into whether Russian forces committed war crimes during their occupation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine confirmed the discovery of the grave site in his nightly address on Thursday, saying “there should be more information, clear, verified information” after journalists visit the city on Friday.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs who traveled to Izium with Mr. Zelensky on Wednesday, told the BBC on Thursday that about 1,000 dead bodies had been found in the city since it was liberated last week.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/15/world/ukraine-russia-war/a-mass-grave-site-with-440-bodies-was-found-in-izium-a-police-official-said?smid=url-share

SKY NEWS: (Non-Paywall)

Earlier, Sky News broadcast an interview with Serhii Bolvinov, the chief police investigator for the Kharkiv region, who revealed the discovery of the mass burial site.

He said officers were also aware of a number of other sites elsewhere in the Kharkiv region.

Mr Bolvinov and his team, along with prosecutors and other specialists, have the vital task of investigating all suspected Russian war crimes in the villages, towns and cities that have been recaptured by Ukrainian troops in a lightning offensive this month.

Asked if he could say how the victims had died, he responded: "We know that some were killed [shot dead], some died because of artillery fire, so-called mine explosion traumas. Some died because of airstrikes. Also we have information that a lot of bodies have not been not identified yet. So the reasons of death will be established during the investigations."

Mr Bolvinov was speaking from an undisclosed location in Kharkiv city after the police station where he and his officers work was hit in Russian missile strikes earlier in the week.

https://news.sky.com/story/mass-burial-site-containing-440-graves-found-in-izyum-after-city-liberated-by-ukrainian-forces-12698332

[NOVA Green]

Also from Izyum, handwritten notes allegedly written by Russian soldiers paint a picture which jives with other reports regarding the state of Russian Military morale shortly before the liberation of the city.

Very long read from the WP, although just a few short excerpts below, but well worth reading the full article.

About 10 days before Ukrainian forces retook the city of Izyum last weekend, Russian troops stationed here were so demoralized that they drafted letters begging their superiors to dismiss them from their roles.

The 10 handwritten letters, dated Aug. 30, were left behind in a two-story residential house where Russians were squatting and later found by Ukrainian soldiers who provided the letters to The Washington Post for review. They paint a portrait of dejected troops desperate for rest and concerned about their health and morale after months of fighting.

“I refuse to complete my duty in the special operation on the territory of Ukraine due to lack of vacation days and moral exhaustion,” wrote a man who identified himself as the commander of an antiaircraft missile platoon from the Moscow region.

The similar style in which the 10 letters were written suggests the troops, weary and disheartened, banded together to draft them. The letters caught the attention of Ukrainian soldiers when they first arrived in Izyum, which the Russians abandoned hastily in retreat, and some were shared on social media.

The authenticity of the letters has not been confirmed by independent forensic experts, but the original documents provided to The Post for review were among the heaps of belongings — from boots and uniforms to colorful letters of support from Russian schoolchildren — that were abandoned as the Russians fled from a remarkably rapid Ukrainian advance that put nearly all of the Kharkiv region back in Ukrainian control in a matter of days.

Once the Ukrainians began their push toward Izyum, the Russians who had been based here for months had just enough warning time to destroy what they could on their way out.

They set fire to the city council building where they had installed a puppet government, ignited explosives on some of the military hardware they planned to abandon and blew up a strategic bridge. In the process, civilians said, they left some of their own forces stranded on the other side with no choice but to walk or run across the damaged bridge to leave.

Shortly before the Ukrainians reclaimed the city, residents said, the Russian troops imposed a 24-hour curfew, then entered civilian homes and raided closets for mismatched clothing to avoid being seen in their uniforms. Some then fled on foot or by bike, the residents recounted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/15/letters-left-behind-by-demoralized-russian-soldiers-they-fled/

[NOVA Green]

For those interested in counter-spin regarding the state of the Russian Economy, as compared with perhaps a few more optimistic assessments presented on this thread:

https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1570426432471592960?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc7...

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

[Frodo]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

And yet the soldiers they have in Transnistria that are closest at hand apparently are to remain in place.