Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

Addendum: Here is an almost 5 month old article on the matter of Crimea (I surmise that it has been put up before here). The author goes to close to the gates of the place of the ripe hanging fruit in characterizing it. Things didn't progress according to his schedule obviously, but it perhaps offers up some insight as to why Russia took the bait or whatever it was and redeployed military assets to Kherson. Perhaps it is true that what lies beyond is the soft underbelly of the peninsula itself.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-and-how-russian-occupied-crimea-can-fall-ukraine

Given how badly things are going for Russia, and how hard up for troops they are short of full wartime mobilization, they are going to have to decide whether it is more important to hold on to Transnistria with Russian units that aren't doing anything at the moment, or to transfer that manpower to Crimea to assist in its defense, giving Moldova its territory back after thirty years of occupation.  And they better make that decision soon...  

The most weird thing on the planet as an insane meaningless construct known as Transnistria, has about 1,500 Russian troops. It is the ultimate paper tiger, and when the map after this horrible war comes to a close, it should be rendered to the ash heap of history. Even the residents of this strip of particular poverty don't quite get the raison d'etre as to why this oddity is on the map.

[Torie]

Mobilisation could take a long time and Russia might not be able to fully exploit it, but I've not seen a good case for it not having the potential to help at least somewhat. Even underequipped extra troops are better than no extra troops.

It can be pursued and bring fruit, but the political will isn't there.

Putin seems quite afraid of Moscovites, and thus their bubble status. War and death is for the more "expendable." He has read about 1789 and its aftermath in a nation to the west. Even relocating to Versailles was not enough.

[Oryxslayer]

This is all great, and often incredible, stuff - but Russia (well, Putin anyway) are hardly likely going to take this lying down once they have recovered from the shock, surely?

He/they are going to try *something* - the question is what, and how much it should concern not just Ukraine but the rest of the world.

Well the plan to freeze out Europe seems now like a total fail with the collapse of the Russian lines screwing up the narrative of a long slow hellish stalemate seeming without end, and for what, for the Russian symps to hawk (what's Tucker Carlson going to do now)? So I don't know. That is beyond my pay grade. Saber rattling of nukes did not seem to fly either.  

Its a trope to say that war is the continuation of Politics by other means, but in this case it holds true. Ukraine cannot let itself fall out of the headlines, or else it risks the average EU joe wondering why he has to budget for a quagmire that shouldn't affect his daily life. There are more reasons then tactics that Ukraine launched the Kherson trap now rather than earlier or later, and success means that the observer community can see their assistance bearing fruit. And all this means is that Russia's gas freeze matters for little if EU citizens continue to believe that it is a cost worth bearing for victory.

[NOVA Green]

So really interesting thread from a random OSINT guy regarding how Ukraine has supposedly cobbled together new military formations, which is part of the reason for their successes on the Kharkiv front, as well as along the Kherson Front.

Take it for what it is worth, but at least check out the other posts on the thread.

Edit: Tossing in a few more tweets from the random Twitter Dude:

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1568438928516022279?s=20&t=1MUuV88H...

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1568439651349794816?s=20&t=1MUuV88H...

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1568440095824400387?s=20&t=1MUuV88H...

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1568440394123288578?s=20&t=1MUuV88H...

[Storr]

Super detailed map for anyone curious about the specific units involved in the current offensive. This is tweet 1 of 6 in the thread, but the only one with a map:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1568737425597386752?s=20&t=XPkPAEho8bGxNg...

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/DanRather/status/1568705340568653824

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile the rapid Russian retreat reminds me of a classic American songs regarding the War of 1812:

A military rout is a rout and not a "strategic withdrawal" (Like he said to use a bit of crude humour and British English spelling).

Apologies in advance for anybody offended about posting YouTube Music Videos on this thread!

Johnny Horton Battle of New Orleans

[Middle-aged Europe]

As far as insane/desparate Putinist war tactics are concerned, I think there was also some speculation about Russia blowing up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on purpose, creating another Chernobyl that binds Ukrainian (and Western) ressources.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568026439382929409?s=20&t=xY13g2o4pi6...

With how slow offensive progress has been for both sides since the initial Russian onslaught, it is quite incredible how much the map has changed in just twenty-four hours:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568389026884853762?s=20&t=l6BoT_O6AEE...

Update:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568755355592626176?s=20&t=AjY-WjXFMcX...

[Frodo]

Let's be honest. It is a question of Time now that Russia fully loses the War.

How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

Substantial war reparations should definitely be on the table, at least until Ukraine has fully recovered from the war back to where it was before the invasion, which Russia should be able to easily afford given its vast energy resources.  As to territorial concessions, while I would like to see Russia give up Transnistria, Crimea, and Kaliningrad in particular, it may be better if they give them up of their own accord (especially the latter, now that the Baltic Sea is about to become a NATO lake) as opposed to a peace treaty mandating they do so.  With NATO countries closing sea, land, and air space to Russian use around Kaliningrad, the Russian military may decide to simply transfer to St. Petersburg and leave Kaliningrad to fend for itself.

All of the above are negotiable.  What isn't is driving home to Russia that it can no longer reclaim its Soviet-era empire -eastern Europe and the Caucasus are now off-limits to Russian intervention. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Let's be honest. It is a question of Time now that Russia fully loses the War.


How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

Russia would have to return Crimea and the puppet states in the Donbass. The war started with Russia occupying Crimea, so it should end with Crimea returning to Ukraine.

I don't think Russia would agree to reparations, you would have to seize Russian assets and send the money to Ukraine. The West has already seized hundreds of billions in assets.

[DINGO Joe]

Obviously not real, but......

https://mobile.twitter.com/SignMyRocket/status/1568650372864004096

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Let's be honest. It is a question of Time now that Russia fully loses the War.


How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

Russia would have to return Crimea and the puppet states in the Donbass. The war started with Russia occupying Crimea, so it should end with Crimea returning to Ukraine.

I don't think Russia would agree to reparations, you would have to seize Russian assets. The West has already seized hundreds of billions in assets.

Russia isn't going to give up Crimea willingly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Seems like the predictions that if Ukraine just holds on long enough the Russian Army will just fall apart in the end could turn out to be true.

Ukraine actually probably has them even outnumbered now when including paramilitaries and partisans.

[BG-NY]

Troubling recent trend - In subways and on corners in NYC the last few days, there have been a number of fraudulent and/or corrupt charities soliciting pro-Ukraine donations. Always investigate an organization before you send your hard-earned money.

[BG-NY]

Russia isn't going to give up Crimea willingly.

Those suggestions (and some others suggesting Ukraine will "win the war") almost certainly aren't literal, it's just showing solidarity against invaders.

[KaiserDave]

Russia isn't going to give up Crimea willingly.

Those suggestions (and some others suggesting Ukraine will "win the war") almost certainly aren't literal, it's just showing solidarity against invaders.

Ukraine will win the war.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Russia isn't going to give up Crimea willingly.

Those suggestions (and some others suggesting Ukraine will "win the war") almost certainly aren't literal, it's just showing solidarity against invaders.

Ukraine will win the war.

A strong argument can be made that Ukraine HAS "won the war" in the sense that its initial victory condition--maintain national sovereignty--has obviously been met and Russia's--eliminate or hollow out Ukraine's national sovereignty--has obviously not been met. Of course, this definition of "win the war" doesn't really connect to the current military realities one way or another, but it should be kept in mind that when we talk about Russia doing, or not doing, "well", what they're doing well relative to is a much, much, much more modest baseline than they started out with.

[CumbrianLefty]

As far as insane/desparate Putinist war tactics are concerned, I think there was also some speculation about Russia blowing up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on purpose, creating another Chernobyl that binds Ukrainian (and Western) ressources.

Though it has been claimed it wouldn't "do a Chernobyl" even if they tried this (and yes, I would still prefer it not to be put to the test nonetheless) The fact any resulting fallout would almost certainly significantly affect Russia as well as Ukraine is perhaps the most practical deterrent.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1568675464163770369
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1568741048729337859

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/casualartyfan/status/1568714781837897728

[rc18]

This town was one of the largest still held by Russia north of Kharkiv, seems they are evacuating the whole Oblast.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568887188351496193?s=20&t=bcnBgg...

[Middle-aged Europe]

As far as insane/desparate Putinist war tactics are concerned, I think there was also some speculation about Russia blowing up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on purpose, creating another Chernobyl that binds Ukrainian (and Western) ressources.

Though it has been claimed it wouldn't "do a Chernobyl" even if they tried this (and yes, I would still prefer it not to be put to the test nonetheless) The fact any resulting fallout would almost certainly significantly affect Russia as well as Ukraine is perhaps the most practical deterrent.

This assumes, of course, that Putin would actually care about fallout possibly affecting (areas of) Russia. So the the main issue seems to be that he would need to credibly lay the blame for the "accident" on Ukraine, at least for domestic consumption.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This town is one of the largest held by Russia north of Kharkiv, seems they are evacuating the whole Oblast.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568887188351496193?s=20&t=bcnBgg...

If they leave that part of the border area, life in the city of Kharkiv will become more bearable as less of Russia's artillery arsenal will be able to hit it.

Ukraine will still have to man the border, but in the long term, this will probably free up troops for them, too. You can't easily build minefields or tear up transport infrastructure in front of territory you want to retake, but you can do that on your border.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As far as insane/desparate Putinist war tactics are concerned, I think there was also some speculation about Russia blowing up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on purpose, creating another Chernobyl that binds Ukrainian (and Western) ressources.

Though it has been claimed it wouldn't "do a Chernobyl" even if they tried this (and yes, I would still prefer it not to be put to the test nonetheless) The fact any resulting fallout would almost certainly significantly affect Russia as well as Ukraine is perhaps the most practical deterrent.

This assumes, of course, that Putin would actually care about fallout possibly affecting (areas of) Russia. So the the main issue seems to be that he would need to credibly lay the blame for the "accident" on Ukraine, at least for domestic consumption.

Maybe, but if you think your population can cope with fallout, surely they can cope with mobilisation? I don't have the answers here, but I think my neighbours would rather deal with the risk of conscription than that of irradiation.

The plant has now been powered down to be put in reserve.