Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Person Man]

So basically all the gains the Russians made during the summer are collapsing within a few days?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1568576718692093952?s=20&t=mU9I3HV9qhc_L...

[Storr]

Based on the presence of a civilian car and lack of military personnel, this was probably done by locals/partisans. Of course, it's still notable:

https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1568609197926785031?s=20&t=mU9I3HV9qhc_...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353
https://twitter.com/GoncharenkoUa/status/1568643958074392577

[DINGO Joe]

Everything is under control folks; Steiner is sending reinforcements lol

Just wait until the 100,000 North Koreans arrive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sounds like lzyum is going to fall soon, possibly as soon as today. Most devestating to Russia is their troops won't be able to retreat.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

Edit: I am now seeing claims that the airport has already been taken by the Ukrainians. If that is true, I am sure visual confirmation will come soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I bet Modi supporters in India are deeply triggered now.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

I would be shocked if the Ukrainians are actually making an attempt to retake Donetsk city or the occupied suburbs. I think it's more likely that they are attempting to keep up the pressure on Russian/DPR forces in that area so they can't be redeployed further north. That said, the ability of the Ukrainians to mount simultaneous counteroffensives and supporting actions across multiple fronts is incredibly impressive and speaks to how far they have come as a fighting force since 2014/2015.

Addendum: that said, I didn't think that the Russian military would cease to be an effective fighting force in Kharkiv Oblast within a matter of a week and yet...

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

I'm no military expert, but I'd guess this isn't a real offensive, but an effort to sow even more confusion and panic among very tired and low morale conscripts.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1568624975220772864

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

I'm no military expert, but I'd guess this isn't a real offensive, but an effort to sow even more confusion and panic among very tired and low morale conscripts.

I don't think that airport has been usable for a long time. Prior to the Russian invasion, the runway was bisected by the demarcation line of the rebel zone. The Russians after the invasion got the rest of the runway, with the line of control now about 3000 feet away, so it's still not safe to fly.

[rc18]

I wonder how the Russians are taking all this?

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1568619450718461953?s=20&t=U8xs_l673...

Oh.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

I would be shocked if the Ukrainians are actually making an attempt to retake Donetsk city or the occupied suburbs. I think it's more likely that they are attempting to keep up the pressure on Russian/DPR forces in that area so they can't be redeployed further north. That said, the ability of the Ukrainians to mount simultaneous counteroffensives and supporting actions across multiple fronts is incredibly impressive and speaks to how far they have come as a fighting force since 2014/2015.

Addendum: that said, I didn't think that the Russian military would cease to be an effective fighting force in Kharkiv Oblast within a matter of a week and yet...

I don't expect them to try and push into Donetsk city any time soon (but what the hell do I know), but having Ukrainian forces only six miles away from the city center after seven months of fighting? That has to make the so-called "DPR" forces very nervous.

[DINGO Joe]

So basically all the gains the Russians made during the summer are collapsing within a few days?

Yes, they've gained more than lost in the Russian summer offensive.  However, much of the territory liberated by the Ukrainians was land the Russian had taken in the initial invasion and didn't withdraw from like they did around Kyiv.  Izium in particular was the Northern base from which the Russians tried to encircle the UA in the Donbass before they gave up encirclement and just basically went with the Crawlkrieg strategy. 

[2952-0-0]

Meanwhile, in Moscow...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1568569887605362688

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1568633440110628865

[Splash]

More on the Donetsk situation:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1568656767395176448

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile on the Kherson Front, this reminds me of a story a former Professor of mine who served in the Air Force in Vietnam told about how every day his squadron would go out to bomb a strategic section of the Ho Chi Minh trail and every night the VC or NVA would have it rebuilt and they would go at it again.

The pontoon bridge had been in place for barely a day. The Ukrainian Army rushed to move troops and equipment across. Then the soldiers watched on a drone video feed as the Russians blew up their bridge, yet again.

“Yes, they hit the bridge,” the drone pilot said matter-of-factly, peering at images beamed in from a safe distance, a mile or so away.

The soldiers shrugged. It was no great loss.

The Ukrainians would soon build another bridge, across the slender, slow-flowing Inhulets River in southern Ukraine, to replace the one destroyed by the Russians. It’s a cycle that repeats itself daily: the Ukrainian Army builds pontoon bridges across the river as it tries to advance in the Kherson region, only to see them blown up.

“We build them, they blow them up,” said Col. Roman Kostenko, the commander of the troops stationed here. “They build them, we blow them up.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/10/world/ukraine-russia-war

[windjammer]

Let's be honest. It is a question of Time now that Russia fully loses the War.


How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

[HillGoose]

Ukrainian thunder run on Moscow when?

[2952-0-0]

Ukrainian thunder run on Moscow when?

Broke: Putin conquers Ukraine and creates a new Russian Empire.

Woke: Zelensky conquers Moscow and creates a new Kievan Rus'.

[ugabug]

I thought i remember reading a few weeks ago that Shoigu was getting increasingly sidelined while Putin was taking a more hands on approach himself if so do you all think these setbacks could end up hurting his grasp on power like what happen with Nicholas II?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile pro-Russian collaborators have been rapidly fleeing, even to Russia itself.

Officials and “volunteers” working for the Russian-installed occupation administration in the Kharkiv region were retreating to the Russian border and setting up temporary camps amid the Ukrainian breakthrough, and pro-Russian officials were urging residents to flee.

The leader of Russia’s governing United Russia party, which runs quasi-government bodies in occupied Ukrainian territories, announced on Telegram that it moved its “volunteer detachment from Balakliya, Kupyansk, Izyum and Volchansk to the border with the Belgorod region.”

“Refugees arrive here, massively leaving the Kharkiv region due to increased shelling launched by Ukrainian nationalists,” the party leader, Andrei Turchak, wrote on his Telegram blog. “People are leaving with their families; there are many children. There are now more than 400 vehicles at the border.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/10/ukraine-kharkiv-russia-retreat-izyum/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Russian positions on the Kharkhiv front seem to have collapsed about as quickly as an England batting line up at the old WACA ground.