Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/casualartyfan/status/1568714781837897728

The scale of the Russian retreat after the first phase of the war was larger, meaning that overall, Ukraine may capture less now than they did after the first Russian pushes. Still, on per town/sq km bases, Russia is leaving more equipment behind in what appears to be a more disorderly retreat. Perhaps this was necessary to avoid captures of personnel, but the scale of what's been captured in a week makes foreign military aid look like a pittance by comparison.

[MABA 2020]

These recent developments are stunning, hopefully this war won't be as long lasting as many had assumed.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, Russia certainly showed those stupid Ukrainians how to lose a war in 3 days.

[Woody]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

[Brittain33]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

What is Russia’s strategy in Ukraine? It is wise in the sense of not getting captured or destroyed, agreed.

[rc18]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

The Oskil is no Dnipro, and is relatively easy to ford in places. Also more importantly the left bank is not going to be defensible given that every major line of communication in the area is or will soon be under Ukrainian fire control. There isn't going to be much in the way of resupply.

Ukrainian control of Kupyansk effectively leaves Russian forces in Eastern Kharkiv Obl., Northern Donetsk Obl. and Northern Luhansk Obl. in a very precarious position. They can try to hold on here, but ultimately it will be a losing battle.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

What is Russia’s strategy in Ukraine? It is wise in the sense of not getting captured or destroyed, agreed.

Russia's strategy is to achieve some form of outcome that doesn't look like a defeat for them. As for any specifics regarding that, you and me probably know as much as the Russian government does.

[DINGO Joe]

Hello

https://mobile.twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536

If Bilaps weren't banned, he would have left by now. The Putin bots have run out of disinformation.

In my twitter travels yesterday, I saw a 3rd tier Putinist of the Tucker/Shapiro mold being mocked and his defense was "things look pretty bad for Russia, but you should consider what this guy says" and he linked to a longass substack article by.................................Big Serg!

Sure enough he's doing his thing on twitter and elsewhere.  I'm sure he'll be sad when the checks stop arriving.

[Oryxslayer]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

The Oskil is no Dnipro, and is relatively easy to ford in places. Also more importantly the left bank is not going to be defensible given that every major line of communication in the area is or will soon be under Ukrainian fire control. There isn't going to be much in the way of resupply.

Ukrainian control of Kupyansk effectively leaves Russian forces in Eastern Kharkiv Obl., Northern Donetsk Obl. and Northern Luhansk Obl. in a very precarious position. They can try to hold on here, but ultimately it will be a losing battle.

I mean at the end of the day, a rout is a psychological military disease. Armies are held together by groups cooperation so when you think that the guy next to you won't be there tomorrow, you will turn and run cause the enemy will now outnumber you. The fear of routing and falling behind the rest of your comrades keeps everyone in a a general state of panic and disorder.

This is the big difference between now and Kyiv, where Russia disorderly retreated whereas now it is full flight spurred by actions on the ground not orders from above.

In the old days, when armies were columns and battles occurred in set pieces, it was the task of the leadership and the reserves to rally soldiers who routing and tried to leave the battlefield. Under mass industrial war routs can only be stopped by quarantining the affected area and reforming the line a ways back with un-infected troops who can serve as a rally point for those who previously fled the field. So this is just standard tactics. There is likely already a defensive line behind the frontline in Donetsk to prevent the infection spreading southwards. The million dollar question of course is if the river here will serve as a new frontline or the Kharkiv soldiers will keep running all the way to the border.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, there are rumors of a third task force ready to strike towards Melitopol and try to make Kherson into a truly grand pocket. Might actually exist, might be deliberate rumors to try and spread the panic of the rout southwards.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Also, there are rumors of a third task force ready to strike towards Melitopol and try to make Kherson into a truly grand pocket. Might actually exist, might be deliberate rumors to try and spread the panic of the rout southwards.

The Wagner Group and Girkin spread these rumours publicly before the Ukrainians did. If it's a psyop, it's a psyop involving manouevres on the ground.

[Coldstream]

If Putin tries to drop a nuke on Ukraine he will get fragged. It is not a serious concern.

[Earthling]

If Putin tries to drop a nuke on Ukraine he will get fragged. It is not a serious concern.

The problem for Putin that the same will happen if he loses in the Ukraine.

The more dangerous the situation becomes for him, the more dangerous he might become.

[nicholas.slaydon]

If Putin tries to drop a nuke on Ukraine he will get fragged. It is not a serious concern.

The problem for Putin that the same will happen if he loses in the Ukraine.

The more dangerous the situation becomes for him, the more dangerous he might become.

However, it is also the case that as the war becomes worse for Putin, his legitimacy will degrade, which makes it less likely that he would be obeyed if he started giving out insane orders.

[rc18]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

The Oskil is no Dnipro, and is relatively easy to ford in places. Also more importantly the left bank is not going to be defensible given that every major line of communication in the area is or will soon be under Ukrainian fire control. There isn't going to be much in the way of resupply.

Ukrainian control of Kupyansk effectively leaves Russian forces in Eastern Kharkiv Obl., Northern Donetsk Obl. and Northern Luhansk Obl. in a very precarious position. They can try to hold on here, but ultimately it will be a losing battle.

I mean at the end of the day, a rout is a psychological military disease. Armies are held together by groups cooperation so when you think that the guy next to you won't be there tomorrow, you will turn and run cause the enemy will now outnumber you. The fear of routing and falling behind the rest of your comrades keeps everyone in a a general state of panic and disorder.

This is the big difference between now and Kyiv, where Russia disorderly retreated whereas now it is full flight spurred by actions on the ground not orders from above.

In the old days, when armies were columns and battles occurred in set pieces, it was the task of the leadership and the reserves to rally soldiers who routing and tried to leave the battlefield. Under mass industrial war routs can only be stopped by quarantining the affected area and reforming the line a ways back with un-infected troops who can serve as a rally point for those who previously fled the field. So this is just standard tactics. There is likely already a defensive line behind the frontline in Donetsk to prevent the infection spreading southwards. The million dollar question of course is if the river here will serve as a new frontline or the Kharkiv soldiers will keep running all the way to the border.

Although it is certainly not helping the Russians, losing the Northern Donbas has less to do with the formidable adversary Major Panic and more to do with logistics.

There is a reason the borders pre-24th February settled to look like this,



This reflects the territory that is logistically supportable with the lines of communication available to Russia DPR/LPR. The Russian army is heavily reliant on artillery and heavy armour, meaning rail supply is vital for positions to be supported longterm.

Now here's a map of the rail network.



The rail lines to support the left bank of the Oskil (north of Kramatorsk on the map) are now cut, as is the line to Severodonetsk. To supply these areas now requires big truck convoys to take long trips from Luhansk/Donetsk passing close to Ukrainian-held positions. To say this is suboptimal would be an understatement.

As I've pointed out earlier; since Valuyki (over the border in Russia top center) is now rendered unusable as it is soon to be under Ukrainian fire control, so is the big light green rail line that passes through Northern Luhansk Obl. The loss of Kupyansk leaves Russia in logistically the same position they were in pre-24th February. The whole Northern Donbas is now effectively on borrowed time, that is why Kupyansk is so strategically significant.

It may not happen tomorrow or the day after, but eventually the Russians will have to retreat back to the pre-24th line.

[Earthling]

If Putin tries to drop a nuke on Ukraine he will get fragged. It is not a serious concern.

The problem for Putin that the same will happen if he loses in the Ukraine.

The more dangerous the situation becomes for him, the more dangerous he might become.

However, it is also the case that as the war becomes worse for Putin, his legitimacy will degrade, which makes it less likely that he would be obeyed if he started giving out insane orders.

That is also true.

But the nuclear option might be his endgame. And if he still has enough support within the military than the nuclear option will be real. He propably won't care what happens after him.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

The Oskil is no Dnipro, and is relatively easy to ford in places. Also more importantly the left bank is not going to be defensible given that every major line of communication in the area is or will soon be under Ukrainian fire control. There isn't going to be much in the way of resupply.

Ukrainian control of Kupyansk effectively leaves Russian forces in Eastern Kharkiv Obl., Northern Donetsk Obl. and Northern Luhansk Obl. in a very precarious position. They can try to hold on here, but ultimately it will be a losing battle.

I mean at the end of the day, a rout is a psychological military disease. Armies are held together by groups cooperation so when you think that the guy next to you won't be there tomorrow, you will turn and run cause the enemy will now outnumber you. The fear of routing and falling behind the rest of your comrades keeps everyone in a a general state of panic and disorder.

This is the big difference between now and Kyiv, where Russia disorderly retreated whereas now it is full flight spurred by actions on the ground not orders from above.

In the old days, when armies were columns and battles occurred in set pieces, it was the task of the leadership and the reserves to rally soldiers who routing and tried to leave the battlefield. Under mass industrial war routs can only be stopped by quarantining the affected area and reforming the line a ways back with un-infected troops who can serve as a rally point for those who previously fled the field. So this is just standard tactics. There is likely already a defensive line behind the frontline in Donetsk to prevent the infection spreading southwards. The million dollar question of course is if the river here will serve as a new frontline or the Kharkiv soldiers will keep running all the way to the border.

Although it is certainly not helping the Russians, losing the Northern Donbas has less to do with the formidable adversary Major Panic and more to do with logistics.

There is a reason the borders pre-24th February settled to look like this,



This reflects the territory that is logistically supportable with the lines of communication available to Russia DPR/LPR. The Russian army is heavily reliant on artillery and heavy armour, meaning rail supply is vital for positions to be supported longterm.

Now here's a map of the rail network.



The rail lines to support the left bank of the Oskil (north of Kramatorsk on the map) are now cut. To supply these areas now requires big truck convoys to take long trips from Luhansk/Donetsk passing close to Ukrainian-held positions. To say this is suboptimal would be an understatement.

As I've pointed out earlier; since Valuyki (top center) is now rendered unusable as it is soon to be under Ukrainian fire control, so is the big light green rail line that passes through Northern Luhansk Obl. The loss of Kupyansk leaves Russia in logistically the same position they were in pre-24th February. The whole Northern Donbas is now effectively on borrowed time, that is why Kupyansk is so strategically significant.

It may not happen tomorrow or the day after, but eventually the Russians will have to retreat back to the pre-24th line.

Couldn't they just use the light green rail line from the eastern border of Luhansk? It might take a bit longer and there are other reasons why northern Luhansk is now vulnerable (e.g. potential lack of fortifications), but it looks like they'll still have some rail access.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Northern Luhansk also lacks large settlements, and if Ukraine advances into it then its forces there would be flanked on three sides. So it's not likely to see many Russian troops stationed there, but equally it's unlikely to be a priority for future offensives.

[Torie]

The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

The Oskil is no Dnipro, and is relatively easy to ford in places. Also more importantly the left bank is not going to be defensible given that every major line of communication in the area is or will soon be under Ukrainian fire control. There isn't going to be much in the way of resupply.

Ukrainian control of Kupyansk effectively leaves Russian forces in Eastern Kharkiv Obl., Northern Donetsk Obl. and Northern Luhansk Obl. in a very precarious position. They can try to hold on here, but ultimately it will be a losing battle.

I mean at the end of the day, a rout is a psychological military disease. Armies are held together by groups cooperation so when you think that the guy next to you won't be there tomorrow, you will turn and run cause the enemy will now outnumber you. The fear of routing and falling behind the rest of your comrades keeps everyone in a a general state of panic and disorder.

This is the big difference between now and Kyiv, where Russia disorderly retreated whereas now it is full flight spurred by actions on the ground not orders from above.

In the old days, when armies were columns and battles occurred in set pieces, it was the task of the leadership and the reserves to rally soldiers who routing and tried to leave the battlefield. Under mass industrial war routs can only be stopped by quarantining the affected area and reforming the line a ways back with un-infected troops who can serve as a rally point for those who previously fled the field. So this is just standard tactics. There is likely already a defensive line behind the frontline in Donetsk to prevent the infection spreading southwards. The million dollar question of course is if the river here will serve as a new frontline or the Kharkiv soldiers will keep running all the way to the border.

Although it is certainly not helping the Russians, losing the Northern Donbas has less to do with the formidable adversary Major Panic and more to do with logistics.

There is a reason the borders pre-24th February settled to look like this,



This reflects the territory that is logistically supportable with the lines of communication available to Russia DPR/LPR. The Russian army is heavily reliant on artillery and heavy armour, meaning rail supply is vital for positions to be supported longterm.

Now here's a map of the rail network.



The rail lines to support the left bank of the Oskil (north of Kramatorsk on the map) are now cut. To supply these areas now requires big truck convoys to take long trips from Luhansk/Donetsk passing close to Ukrainian-held positions. To say this is suboptimal would be an understatement.

As I've pointed out earlier; since Valuyki (top center) is now rendered unusable as it is soon to be under Ukrainian fire control, so is the big light green rail line that passes through Northern Luhansk Obl. The loss of Kupyansk leaves Russia in logistically the same position they were in pre-24th February. The whole Northern Donbas is now effectively on borrowed time, that is why Kupyansk is so strategically significant.

It may not happen tomorrow or the day after, but eventually the Russians will have to retreat back to the pre-24th line.

Couldn't they just use the light green rail line from the eastern border of Luhansk? It might take a bit longer and there are other reasons why northern Luhansk is now vulnerable (e.g. potential lack of fortifications), but it looks like they'll still have some rail access.

The rail line to which you refer is about 20 miles away from where Ukraine's forces just arrived. At some point it would seem to be within shelling distance. When US sky spying picks up a train moving south on it, a target for a Ukraine missile is born.

[rc18]

Couldn't they just use the light green rail line from the eastern border of Luhansk? It might take a bit longer and there are other reasons why northern Luhansk is now vulnerable (e.g. potential lack of fortifications), but it looks like they'll still have some rail access.

They could (but they have been able to since 2014 and it didn't get them far then), but as you say it is a big detour that is going to struggle to supply their forces at a rate high enough to hold these areas (I frankly doubt they'll bother, they aren't strategic).

But as I said, the left bank of the Oskil and Severodonetsk are unlikely to hold very long now either after being cut off from Kupyansk, at which point the rail line in Luhansk Obl. will be under Ukrainian fire control at locations closer to Luhansk anyway.

That's why I said it may not happen tomorrow, but it is essentially inevitable now.

[Torie]

The pincer on the move again.

[rc18]

It seems the Russians are determined to prove my point even sooner than expected.

They are apparently retreating from Starobilsk, the most significant settlement on the rail line in northern Luhansk Oblast, towards Luhansk city.

The whole area is just not supportable anymore.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1568992045406076930?s=20&t=w9I-fZXev...

[Storr]

This town is one of the largest held by Russia north of Kharkiv, seems they are evacuating the whole Oblast.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568887188351496193?s=20&t=bcnBgg...

If they leave that part of the border area, life in the city of Kharkiv will become more bearable as less of Russia's artillery arsenal will be able to hit it.

Ukraine will still have to man the border, but in the long term, this will probably free up troops for them, too. You can't easily build minefields or tear up transport infrastructure in front of territory you want to retake, but you can do that on your border.

Hoptivka is also in the border area north of Kharkiv that was occupied by Russia. It's 8km southeast of Kozacha Lopan. So indeed it seems Russia has left that area:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1568981328317521921?s=20

[Storr]

AFU in Dvorichna, 17km north of Kupyansk. The town is about 25km south of the Russian border:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1568976470411808772?s=20

[Biden 2024]

What are the general expectations re: when Ukraine retakes Kherson? End of month I imagine?