Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another Russian collaborator is seriously injured in alleged car combing earlier today:

The Russian-backed leader of an occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously injured in a car bombing, occupation authorities said Tuesday. In a Telegram post showing a burned-out SUV parked on a narrow street, authorities accused Ukrainian forces of blowing up the car of Artyom Bardin, the head of the Russian-backed occupation administration in Berdyansk, a port city in southeastern Ukraine. Bardin was hospitalized “in a serious condition,” the post said. The Ukrainian military did not immediately release any information about the alleged bombing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

The collaborator framing is wrong - he was a Russian officer (the military head of the administration), not a collaborator.

Thanks Tilts for the IIRC.

That's the problem with a few brief snips from a story I hadn't yet seen posted at that time (lacking context).

Regardless of one's personal opinions regarding how the partisan resistance are conducting themselves within Russian Occupied Ukraine, this would pretty clearly make him a legitimate military target, despite how individuals might view Ukrainian Civilian Collaborators under the Russian Occupation Government (Legitimate Military Targets) vs (Non-Legit Military Targets).

Personally I would subscribe to the POV that any Ukrainians working for the Russian Occupied Gvt, even within civilian structures could be considered legit targets, since effectively they are effectively working in a governmental capacity with the occupying country, but still it is perhaps a very important distinction to make, especially since the Ukrainian GVT has a legitimate claim over Russian GVT occupied territories, but still that does not mean that Ukrainian official military forces have rights to assassinate their own civilians simply because of collaboration.

Thanks again for calling out the distinction, since I was unaware from the WaPo article, that this individual was in fact a member of the "Military Wing" of the "Ukrainian Collaborators"....

We cool?

The rules of war allow for Ukrainian resistance fighters to kill collaborators, but also allow Russians to defend said collaborators.
The "military wing" of Ukrainian collaborators particularly have no right to think they are entitled to protection from violence, for obvious reasons.
But Ukrainians involved in the resistance know the price they are paying and deserve all the more respect because of it. Should the blue-and-yellow flag be raised in Kherson once again their bravery was an important part in making it happen.

[Storr]

Possible Ukrainian advances near Balakliia (or Balakliya) Kharkiv Oblast, population 27,000. It is home to a huge ammunition depot, located on the satellite image as the giant rectangle of fenced off land above the "Балаклія".

Russian version of the situation map.  Their version has Ukrainian forces trying to cut off Russians in Balakleya but risk getting cut off themselves.  Very interesting battle.

Interestingly, Yakovenkove is also shown being under Ukrainian control on the Russian situation map:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567276398653349889?s=20&t=PZy2KAhh7q...

This is the first mention of a specific unit being surrounded I've seen. SOBR are spetsnaz of the Russian National Guard, evidently closer to gendaramie or SWAT than traditional military.  

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567272187697979393?s=20&t=PZy2KAhh7q...

[NOVA Green]

Ukrainian Supreme Court bans many political parties:

Ukraine’s Supreme Court announced a final ban on the activities on a Ukrainian political party called the Party of Shariy. The judgment affirmed a government decision in March to suspend the operations of the Party of Shariy — along with 10 other parties — for alleged links to Russia or anti-Ukraine sentiment. The judgment can no longer be appealed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[Storr]

The Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine (that is quite a long title lol) claims Balakliya was taken with many Russian POWs and KIA:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291547145703426?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291548781395969?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291550408794113?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Between Kharkiv and Kherson; Ukraine has set itself up nice to deal Russia devastating defeats

[Storr]

Another Russian collaborator is seriously injured in alleged car combing earlier today:

The Russian-backed leader of an occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously injured in a car bombing, occupation authorities said Tuesday. In a Telegram post showing a burned-out SUV parked on a narrow street, authorities accused Ukrainian forces of blowing up the car of Artyom Bardin, the head of the Russian-backed occupation administration in Berdyansk, a port city in southeastern Ukraine. Bardin was hospitalized “in a serious condition,” the post said. The Ukrainian military did not immediately release any information about the alleged bombing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Video of the car bombing aftermath:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567119634356207617?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567132286222565381?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567134571996618757?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

How the hell did this guy survive the car bombing (Assuming that Russian propaganda is correct)?

Hell, my wife was a kid back in the '70s living in Vegas, where they saw the massive plume of a car bomb Mafia hit.

The movie Casino actually covered that incident, although the Mobster target actually survived.

We all know about how effective the IRA was in Northern Ireland when it came to the use of car bombs, let alone how IEDs were used in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq wars in more recent times.

It's been claimed he's died, which fits with the damage seen in the footage:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1567182382339440646?s=20&t=tGp1YAfikYkV5...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567297092900503552

[Logical]

Russian lines in Kharkiv has collapsed faster than I thought was possible. Volokhiv Yar has been liberated and Ukrainian scouts are pushing onwards to Semenivka to the north. Russians in Balakliya are encircled and fighting to the last man.


UPDATE: Russian Su-25 shot down near Volokhiv Yar
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1567424375019683840

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Between Kharkiv and Kherson; Ukraine has set itself up nice to deal Russia devastating defeats

If there really are two major offensives going on at once - and the alleged* scale of what is being reported would suggest there is - then Ukraine is making an even bigger gamble by not concentrating as much in one offensive as they could (the commentariat insisted the logic of the Kherson offensive was that they could concentrate forces more easily there than Russia). They shouldn't want to fall into slower, positional warfare where they can avoid it, or any towns they gain will end up like those conquered by Russia in the Donbas: taken too slowly to avoid being levelled beforehand, and too slowly to avoid the defenders setting up new defensive lines behind them.

The rasputitsa will slow or possibly halt offensive actions during October, as it hindered the Russian push last spring.

*Not enough reliable information information is present now, but this could become clear in a month or so.

[Omega21]

Economic front update

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567389797647368192

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567392613728133121

According to Goldman Sachs, energy costs in 2023 will equal to 20% (!) of EU citizens available income.

https://twitter.com/_MartinNeumann/status/1567230692567748611?t=3JQ7VR9tW66ICECb...

[jaichind]

Between Kharkiv and Kherson; Ukraine has set itself up nice to deal Russia devastating defeats

If there really are two major offensives going on at once - and the alleged* scale of what is being reported would suggest there is - then Ukraine is making an even bigger gamble by not concentrating as much in one offensive as they could (the commentariat insisted the logic of the Kherson offensive was that they could concentrate forces more easily there than Russia). They shouldn't want to fall into slower, positional warfare where they can avoid it, or any towns they gain will end up like those conquered by Russia in the Donbas: taken too slowly to avoid being levelled beforehand, and too slowly to avoid the defenders setting up new defensive lines behind them.

The rasputitsa will slow or possibly halt offensive actions during October, as it hindered the Russian push last spring.

*Not enough reliable information information is present now, but this could become clear in a month or so.

I think the current Ukraine strategy of attacking on several fronts are risky but does give it path toward victory.  I am going to define Ukraine victory as end of conflict without ceding territory. Just letting the Russians slowly chip away at Donbass with massive artillery creates a de facto situation of Russian annexation of Donbass which will not be victory.  Taking advantage of Ukraine manpower advantage while most Russia attention are in Donbass to try to chip away at Russian holdings elsewhere so Russia takes its eye off the ball in Donbass is one route, risky one to be fair, to victory where as status quo does not lead to victory.  Fortune favor the bold.  We will see if it works out for Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://nypost.com/2022/09/06/karine-jean-pierre-confuses-russias-nord-stream-1-pipeline-with-nordstrom/

"Karine Jean-Pierre mocked after calling Nord Stream 1 pipeline ‘Nordstrom’"

Wow, a massive blow from Putin to show down Nordstorm.  What will the upscale shoppers in my own neighborhood Scarsdale do when the Nordstorm in Westchester Mall in White Plains is shut down?  Won't affect me.  I always hated Nordstorm as a store that is way overpriced.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1567484279554293760

[Virginiá]

Article describes US munition production efforts

US military working on analysis to shape and support Ukraine's military in long term

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/07/politics/us-military-ukraine-analysis/index.html

The Pentagon issued $364 million in contracts late last month to a variety of US and international suppliers. "This is a big deal," said William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told CNN. "I can't say the sources, but they are around the world."
The goal is to deliver 100,000 rounds in 90 days and 15,000 a month after that.

The longer-term goal is to deliver more than 30,000 rounds a month in the next two to three years. Separately, another defense official said a contract is expected from the Army in the coming days to begin to replenish US 155 mm ammunition stocks due to the high volume being sent to Ukraine.
Current US production is about 15,000 rounds a month at facilities in Pennsylvania but additional government funding is aimed at getting production up to more than 30,000 rounds a month.

To replenish US weapons stocks from the drawdown of inventory sent to Ukraine, the US has issued several critical contracts since May including: $624 million to Raytheon for Stinger missile systems; $352 million to Raytheon and Lockheed Martin for the Javelin anti-armor system; $33 million to Lockheed for HIMARS multiple rocket launcher, and $8 million to AeroVironment for smaller Switchblade drones. The Pentagon also hopes to more than double monthly HIMARS production to 12 launchers per month.

[Storr]

What Russian telegram channels have been claiming the Ukrainian objective is. Kupyansk is a major railway junction, and Russian supply lines to the Donbass would be in major jeopardy if Kupyansk is threatened or cut if taken, so it being the Ukrainian offensive objective makes sense:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567459059527290882?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT-DWB...

Captured Russian positions near Balakliya:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1567487920667230208?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT-...

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1567502462919008256?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT-DW...

[Storr]

Big if true. Shevchenkove is 30km west of Kupyansk and the largest town, population 6,700, between Chuhuiv (under Ukrainian control for the entire war) and Kupyansk as well as Balakliya and Kupyansk:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567508891193286656?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT...

From a Russian channel:
https://twitter.com/AnnonDocss/status/1567518354017062912?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT-...

[Storr]

8km southeast of Balakliya:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567513176895328258?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT...

7km north of Balakliya:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567486096853852163?s=20&t=cXaR0Y...

[Stranger in a strange land]

Getting back to North Korea now becoming an arms merchant to Russia (how the world changes), there is but one transit point between Russia and North Korea - just one (the borders there between the PRC, Russia and N. Korea are erose, as if gerrymandered almost).



It's time for Ukraine to blow that bridge up. That will catch Putin's attention. I really don't see why mother Russia gets to be a sanctuary city in this war. That's not very symmetrical. I find asymmetry discordant and unaesthetic myself. What's Putin going to do about it? Rattle his nukes again? Does he even know if his nukes work?

Pity that even though the river is very close to the Pacific there, it looks too sallow for a sub. It's no Hudson River. So sad.  If it were deeper I might do a gofundme so that Ukraine can buy a sub. I could arrange to use my political influence in Samoa (yes I do know the PM there personally), to arrange for it to be the delivery point. From there it is a straight shot to the bridge.

Nice bridge. Shame if anything happened to it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I imagine North Korea will just bring them in by ship to Vladivostok.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567532184449286147
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567536800717049856
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567538768214646787

[Storr]

8km southeast of Balakliya:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567513176895328258?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT...

7km north of Balakliya:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567486096853852163?s=20&t=cXaR0Y...

More from Yakovenkove:

https://twitter.com/blinzka/status/1567539067608338433?s=20&t=p8-oFLAPFd3Ms_...

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/06/liz-truss-expected-to-freeze-uk-energy-bills-at-2500-a-year

One European country after another announcing full freezes on Energy prices (for at least this winter and in some already admitting until mid 2024). France already has one in place, Germany and Austria have now also said this, and the UK's new Prime Minister Liz Truss will announce the same tomorrow. Hard to see how public pressures won't now result in a domino effect in all of Europe here.

This is not really a good idea at all because it will end, or at least drastically reduce the incentive to save energy (depending on how the freeze is implemented). There should be more targeted support payments to more vulnerable households, instead of artificially cheapening a already scarce resource for everyone. However it is clear that the public pressure is now so intensive that in a democratic system there is no alternative. But if European countries don't reduce energy consumption significantly, there will be a essentially a very bad circular loop where the prices on the spot market this winter will balloon to astronomical levels, and Governments have pour more and more money (debt) in to subsidise the energy and keep the cap in place.

The consequences of this could be: In Germany only small businesses and private households are planned to be price capped, not industry. The result will be industry paying massively inflated prices at which point many will no longer be able to produce. The economic consequences of that would be horrific, so it is likely that the German Government would then have to impose energy rationing.

But Germany is not even on the worst end here: The UK, which doesn't have meaningful manufacturing, but whose economy instead relies on foreign capital inflows is possibly in even worse situation. Why? UK will be even more exposed to market conditions this winter as it has almost no storage (Germany has iirc somewhere like enough storage for 60 days, while UK has for about 4 Days), and as such will have to take even more debt to fund its price freeze. UK already has a big current account deficit and unusually large foreign outflows. Deutsche Bank has warned that the UK is increasingly at risk of no longer attracting enough foreign capital to fund the external balance, which would result in a very stark depreciation of GBP, and a emerging-market style currency crisis. Without manufacturing, exports won't be helped by this, only imports will become much more expensive, drastically reducing living standards. To be clear this is the worst case szenario, but it is definitely realistic. Europe really needs leaders with nerves of steel right now.

I said it couple of times before: The solution to high prices are high prices

[NOVA Green]

This stories jives with some of the early reports from the Kherson Offensive regarding high Ukrainian casualty numbers, and the risks inherent in attacking heavily fortified enemy defensive positions.

In dimly lit hospital rooms in southern Ukraine, soldiers with severed limbs, shrapnel wounds, mangled hands and shattered joints recounted the lopsided disadvantages their units faced in the early days of a new offensive to expel Russian forces from the strategic city of Kherson.

The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia’s entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries. The interviews provided some of the first direct accounts of a push to retake captured territory that is so sensitive, Ukrainian military commanders have barred reporters from visiting the front lines.

Russia’s Orlan drones exposed Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their movements.

Russian tanks emerged from newly built cement fortifications to blast infantry with large-caliber artillery, the wounded Ukrainian soldiers said. The vehicles would then shrink back beneath the concrete shelters, shielded from mortar and rocket fire.

Counter-battery radar systems automatically detected and located Ukrainians who were targeting the Russians with projectiles, unleashing a barrage of artillery fire in response.

Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.

Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members — a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

[GeneralMacArthur]

I've been getting so many conflicting reports about this whole offensive.  Seems like Ukraine is in fact making progress, but there's heavy losses on both sides?  Anyone have an up-to-date map of where Ukraine has regained territory?  How close are they to Kherson?  Is the Russian position strong enough to prevent Ukraine from pushing through to Crimea if the front collapses?

[NOVA Green]

Granted I tend to take Russian public opinion polls with some obviously large shakers of salt, but still...

Limited quotes and link to WaPo (paywall summary at top), and link to the actual, much more detailed article from Carnegie Endowment study below that (free).

Russian public support for the war against Ukraine, while sky-high, is less solid than statistics generally suggest, according to an analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and has fallen in recent months with some supporters saying they are ambivalent, anxious, shocked or fearful about the ongoing military campaign.

About 20 percent of respondents said they did not support the war, up from 14 percent in March, the analysis found. About 75 percent said they supported the war, compared with 81 percent in March.

“Opinions are becoming polarized. Over time, polarized opinions are becoming radicalized. All of that points to growing conflict within Russian society,” Kolesnikov and Volkov wrote, pointing to sharp differences between the 47 percent who definitely supported the war in June — described in Russia as a “special military operation” — and the 28 percent who mostly supported it.

Even among those who said they supported the war, many were ambivalent. The 28 percent who mostly supported the war were more likely to express anxiety, fear or horror about it, according to Kolesnikov and Volkov.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/russia-war-ukraine-public-opinion/


https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803