Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1566550046379839488?s=20&t=uxem_yD...

Speculative. It seems one of the most likely reasons, but another factor (which could co-exist with it) is an increased willingness to use TB2s despite the risk from air defences precisely because they could be deployed as attritable assets during an offensive.

A third possibility is that they were running low on TB2 munitions until now and have been resupplied. There's also recent footage of at least one TB2 strike in Donetsk, where Russian air defences are likely to hold up better than in Kherson.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

"Completely plundered city" [if/when recaptured] is a fairly bleak outlook (some things can be hidden or protected/are practically immovable), but I think there's a real risk of something worse. If Ukraine tries to take it by force, a lot of buildings will be destroyed; if they try to besiege it and Russia leaves because its position becomes unsustainable, they will first prioritise the supply of military materiel for their troops over the supply of food for the local civilians. There might be a threat of mass starvation in the interim.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

"Completely plundered city" [if/when recaptured] is a fairly bleak outlook (some things can be hidden or protected/are practically immovable), but I think there's a real risk of something worse. If Ukraine tries to take it by force, a lot of buildings will be destroyed; if they try to besiege it and Russia leaves because its position becomes unsustainable, they will first prioritise the supply of military materiel for their troops over the supply of food for the local civilians. There might be a threat of mass starvation in the interim.

What happens if Russia still more-or-less controls Kherson in January?

[Oryxslayer]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

"Completely plundered city" [if/when recaptured] is a fairly bleak outlook (some things can be hidden or protected/are practically immovable), but I think there's a real risk of something worse. If Ukraine tries to take it by force, a lot of buildings will be destroyed; if they try to besiege it and Russia leaves because its position becomes unsustainable, they will first prioritise the supply of military materiel for their troops over the supply of food for the local civilians. There might be a threat of mass starvation in the interim.

This is war - urban war. I gives me no joy to say this but the size of the modern city and it's utter dependence upon importing foodstuffs means that when any conflict endangers urban life chaos reigns and civilians become expendable hostages. if the defenders dig in, it becomes a horrific street-to-street maze of skirmishes where numbers and advantages mean very little. We have seen this horror before in Libya, Syria, and Mariupol. It is the accounted-for cost of modern warfare and one of the many reasons why continued NATO and US strength worldwide beneficially keeps many people alive.

Most memoirs or histories of any advanced war within the last 200 years feature something like this tragedy. The video game "This War of Mine" explicitly tries to convey it to people who will hopefully never experience it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anyone is sincerely getting persuaded by Jaichind&co's attempts to convince you that the West is losing the economic war to Russia, watch this video. Putin is putting all his remaining chips into a desperate gamble to scare Europeans off - but if we call his bluff in the next few months, he's basically out of options.

[jaichind]

FT: Russia is to halt all gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions are removed

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FT: Russia is to halt all gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions are removed

That's not what the FT article says. Russia has said it will not resume Nord Stream 1 supplies in full until sanctions are lifted - but it is still using its land-based pipelines, the South Stream and LNG. It has not attempted to stop these yet (although it may well before the end of the winter) and LNG sanctions would be the hardest to enforce.

[jaichind]

FT: Russia is to halt all gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions are removed

That's not what the FT article says. Russia has said it will not resume Nord Stream 1 supplies in full until sanctions are lifted - but it is still using its land-based pipelines, the South Stream and LNG. It has not attempted to stop these yet (although it may well before the end of the winter) and LNG sanctions would be the hardest to enforce.

You are right.  I did not read the details on this headline.  I should have realized this when there was no big shift in gas prices in the EU on this headline.  This would make more sense.  I think if Russia came out and cut off all gas unless sanctions are removed it would be a sign of weakness since that would mean that it would project that time was not on its side.  I was about to write that this, now false, reading of the headline would mean that Russia is in trouble and projecting weakness.  In this case, it is just the same thing as before.  Russia is making this about some technicality about fixing turbines and sanctions around fixing turbines that the Canadians have to do.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FT: Russia is to halt all gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions are removed

That's not what the FT article says. Russia has said it will not resume Nord Stream 1 supplies in full until sanctions are lifted - but it is still using its land-based pipelines, the South Stream and LNG. It has not attempted to stop these yet (although it may well before the end of the winter) and LNG sanctions would be the hardest to enforce.

You are right.  I did not read the details on this headline.  I should have realized this when there was no big shift in gas prices in the EU on this headline.  This would make more sense.  I think if Russia came out and cut off all gas unless sanctions are removed it would be a sign of weakness since that would mean that it would project that time was not on its side.  I was about to write that this, now false, reading of the headline would mean that Russia is in trouble and projecting weakness.  In this case, it is just the same thing as before.  Russia is making this about some technicality about fixing turbines and sanctions around fixing turbines that the Canadians have to do.

That's one way to read it, but cutting off all gas would deplete Europe's reserves faster before winter - and by next winter, they are likely to have at least a few more alternatives or countermeasures around. If Russia has enough cash to finance its government and war, and if it is willing to expend its long-term leverage over Europe to give it a boost in the Ukrainian conflict, cutting it all off might be more effective.

[jaichind]

That's one way to read it, but cutting off all gas would deplete Europe's reserves faster before winter - and by next winter, they are likely to have at least a few more alternatives or countermeasures around. If Russia has enough cash to finance its government and war, and if it is willing to expend its long-term leverage over Europe to give it a boost in the Ukrainian conflict, cutting it all off might be more effective.

The optimal strategy for Russia has to limit but not cut off gas supplies to the EU.   The idea is that a complete cut-off might galvanize the EU population toward a common radical solution.  That shared pain and working together toward a solution will create a solitary that will not be in Russia's interests.  Russia should ideally want some limited but not catastrophic pain so as to turn the EU population toward blaming their current rulers for their inconvenience.  It is not easy to balance these goals of some but not total pain but that should be the optimal Russia strategy in my view.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If anyone is sincerely getting persuaded by Jaichind&co's attempts to convince you that the West is losing the economic war to Russia, watch this video. Putin is putting all his remaining chips into a desperate gamble to scare Europeans off - but if we call his bluff in the next few months, he's basically out of options.

This provides us additional context alongside Jaichind's contributions to our understanding of how this situation is evolving.
The Russians do have a number of issues that complicate the picture for them. Just because the situation might not be as bleak for them as many think (including on the economic front), doesn't mean they are on the cusp of a huge win either.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1566667179646488580
https://twitter.com/business/status/1566749039500165125

[Torie]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

So apparently what is left of Atlas has no commentary whatsoever regarding the live account of a journalist in KC, who joined the armed resistance against Russian Occupation?

Suspect most of Atlas are too lazy to click on links, and like most Millennials need some content a bit more visual in style?

Ok-- will likely attempt quotes tomorrow from the articles in question, for what appears to be essentially a community heavily impacted by conditions such as attention-deficit-disorder...

No picture, no text quotes... basically ignore...

Whatever....

It's very interesting. I've been a bit swamped lately though. I'll check this out later tonight.

So I've now read through it all, earliest occasion I could give the thing the time and focus it deserves.
I will probably be the only person to give such an assessment of what he said in-thread, but then again, I have loads of free time. Reading it is no problem, you can simply left-click and use Google Translate (same trick I use a lot on the Japanese part of the internet). I am summarizing each question with different words and quotation marks.
Anyway:
... .

I'd like to thank NOVA Green for giving us this.

The guy is certainly articulate and expresses himself well. Thank you both to afford us the opportunity to read it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

So apparently what is left of Atlas has no commentary whatsoever regarding the live account of a journalist in KC, who joined the armed resistance against Russian Occupation?

Suspect most of Atlas are too lazy to click on links, and like most Millennials need some content a bit more visual in style?

Ok-- will likely attempt quotes tomorrow from the articles in question, for what appears to be essentially a community heavily impacted by conditions such as attention-deficit-disorder...

No picture, no text quotes... basically ignore...

Whatever....

It's very interesting. I've been a bit swamped lately though. I'll check this out later tonight.

So I've now read through it all, earliest occasion I could give the thing the time and focus it deserves.
I will probably be the only person to give such an assessment of what he said in-thread, but then again, I have loads of free time. Reading it is no problem, you can simply left-click and use Google Translate (same trick I use a lot on the Japanese part of the internet). I am summarizing each question with different words and quotation marks.
Anyway:
... .

I'd like to thank NOVA Green for giving us this.

The guy is certainly articulate and expresses himself well. Thank you both to afford us the opportunity to read it.

His words are immensely interesting. He, from the looks of it, is a fairly high-level Ukrainian operative, and what he said reflects this well.
I only wish we had a Russian prespective on this...there surely is, but it's not likely to be publicly available until long after the war is over.
You're welcome for the kind words. May we continue to be able to get a sense of how the winds in this war are blowing.

[Torie]

Maybe my faith and optimism are misplaced, but I have close to an absolute confidence that the key players in  Europe will not break due to economic stress in the face of Russian aggression. Even if the war drags on and on, I think they realize that its economic dependence on Russia must be severed. Stay the course. I hope the US pitches in to help Europe out, including sharing the pain of rising energy costs. We are all in this together. "Man" does not live by bread alone, particularly if one looks out over to a farther horizon.

I hope a lesson has been learned here that will not be forgotten. If so, it will be an invaluable lesson.

This almost prayerful hope is in response to doomster posts intermittently lacing this thread that the the Euro is collapsing, the gas will run out, factories will turn cold, people will shiver, implying that spirits will break to tyranny. Perhaps naively, I have more faith in their character than that.

[Woody]

Flashback to the man who foresaw this

[nicholas.slaydon]

Flashback to the man who foresaw this

Well, a stopped clock is right twice a day, and the Germans nor any others who put their energy dependence in the hands of tyrannical dictator are reaping that to which they have sown.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/russia-risks-bigger-longer-sanctions-hit-internal-report-warns

"Russia Risks Bigger Sanctions Hit, Internal Report Warns"

Bloomberg says it got an internal Russian report that indicated that the road to Russian recovery will be arduous.

The report says that while the "Target" scenario in the chart below is possible the "Inertial" scenario is more likely with a chance of a disastrous "Stress" scenario.  All 3 scenarios assume that the war will go on indefinitely and that the sanctions are here to stay and could grow.  Everything, it seems, comes how to how quickly Russia can shift its exports away from the collective West.


Certainly, most of the Western investment banking GDP projections for 2022 and 2023 tend to align with the "Inertial" scenario.  It certainly makes sense for the Russian government to plan on that taking place versus the rosy and ideal "Target" scenario which I think Russia will be lucky and unlikely to hit.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1566786848776757248
Ukraine continuing progress in Kherson

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1566667179646488580
https://twitter.com/business/status/1566749039500165125

At some stage, the ECB will have to raise rates and trigger a significant economic downturn.  When that does take place I do expect EUR to bounce back.

[Red Velvet]

If the European deindustrialization prediction is confirmed as a result of all this, which places would benefit the most? To which places would these industries escaping from huge unsustainable energy costs would move to?

[jaichind]

If the European deindustrialization prediction is confirmed as a result of all this, which places would benefit the most? To which places would these industries escaping from huge unsustainable energy costs would move to?

Clearly USA PRC India.

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1566786848776757248
Ukraine continuing progress in Kherson

That is close to 10 miles south from that mouthful of a name town directly to the north (let's call it Pillya), where the gang was last seen a couple of days ago. I hope they have perfected the best way to facilitate Russian troop surrenders so that the Russian conscripted kids do not get unnecessarily hurt. Maybe those that raise the white flag first should be offered asylum to sweeten the deal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At times this thread really does seem to exist in an alternative reality.

[Red Velvet]

If the European deindustrialization prediction is confirmed as a result of all this, which places would benefit the most? To which places would these industries escaping from huge unsustainable energy costs would move to?

Clearly USA PRC India.

Damn, I kinda wish I was American so that Europeans would listen to me as a western helpful fella concerned about their well being. That pro-Ukraine stuff sure sounds like great business with the inheritance of German competitive industry. And you still get to retain the soft power by keeping the narrative you do it all for freedom so that these losers keep buying everything from you.

Game, set, match.