Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 932073 times)
DINGO Joe
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« Reply #13175 on: July 30, 2022, 09:56:59 PM »
Quote from: Storr on July 29, 2022, 08:30:30 PM
This is the first time I can remember Ukraine targeting a hotel the Russians had been using: 







No, the Ukrainians have hit other hotels that are known to hold Russian officers.  In fact Girkin has video of a "Yacht Club" burning in Donbas and subsequent video of  Russian air evac of wounded presumably from that event just yesterday.  And air evac is, of course, only for the high ranking.
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Woody
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« Reply #13176 on: July 30, 2022, 11:27:43 PM »
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13177 on: July 31, 2022, 12:40:30 AM »


This video appeared in my sidebar. The channel is good and so I'm sure they might have something insightful about this.
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Logical
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« Reply #13178 on: July 31, 2022, 02:18:17 AM »
Gigachad move. Attacking your enemy's Naval HQ on Navy Day. I believe that this is the first direct Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol.
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andjey
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« Reply #13179 on: July 31, 2022, 08:18:05 AM »





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Storr
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« Reply #13180 on: July 31, 2022, 08:22:43 AM »
« Edited: July 31, 2022, 08:30:21 AM by Storr »
Quote from: Storr on July 30, 2022, 12:59:36 AM
"Kherson, Antonovsky Ferry queue"

Almost all of the cars and trucks in the line have the regional license plate code for Kherson Oblast, either the moden BT prefix or Soviet era XO suffix. I saw one each BH (Odessa Oblast), AH (Donetsk Oblast), AE (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and KP suffix (Crimea). So they seem to be locals, as opposed to being some of the rumored Russian civilians trying to flee advancing Ukrainian forces.

If they're trying to head out of town, heeding the Ukrainian government's guidance for civilians in Kherson to do so ahead of the upcoming offensive, it's hard to tell. Though if it indicates anything, the vehicles don't appear to be packed full of possessions and luggage.


Antonovsky Bridge situation update:



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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13181 on: July 31, 2022, 09:16:36 AM »
Quote from: Storr on July 31, 2022, 08:22:43 AM
Quote from: Storr on July 30, 2022, 12:59:36 AM
"Kherson, Antonovsky Ferry queue"

Almost all of the cars and trucks in the line have the regional license plate code for Kherson Oblast, either the moden BT prefix or Soviet era XO suffix. I saw one each BH (Odessa Oblast), AH (Donetsk Oblast), AE (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and KP suffix (Crimea). So they seem to be locals, as opposed to being some of the rumored Russian civilians trying to flee advancing Ukrainian forces.

If they're trying to head out of town, heeding the Ukrainian government's guidance for civilians in Kherson to do so ahead of the upcoming offensive, it's hard to tell. Though if it indicates anything, the vehicles don't appear to be packed full of possessions and luggage.


Antonovsky Bridge situation update:




HIMARS said hi!
(Of course, it would probably be wasteful for Ukraine to do that, but it's also not something that would be completely insane either, considering the US is very willing to assist in arming them)
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #13182 on: July 31, 2022, 09:20:44 AM »
This is how you demine a road.  Cheesy
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Storr
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« Reply #13183 on: July 31, 2022, 10:15:42 AM »


Meanwhile Russia's actual aircraft carrier is....looking rough:
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Storr
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« Reply #13184 on: July 31, 2022, 10:59:23 AM »
"Operational information as of 18.00 on 07/31/2022

"In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, using the available means of fire damage, fired at Nevelskyi, Umanskyi, New York, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Piskivy and Novobakhmutivka.

Russian attack and army aircraft cynically struck the settlements of Avdiyivka, Novoselyvka, and Yuryivka.

The occupiers tried to advance in the districts of Kamianka and Piskiy. Here the assault failed. In the Avdiivka region, individual units of the enemy have partial success."
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Woody
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« Reply #13185 on: July 31, 2022, 11:12:09 AM »
« Edited: July 31, 2022, 11:15:18 AM by SirWoodbury »
The outskirts of Donetsk City is probably the most hellish place currently on the front. Taking Avdiivka might give the Russians and it's separatists some breathing room around the city, I suspect they'll advance north towards Kostiantynivka through the H20, but not before they try to secure Toretsk/New York, and it's surrounding settlements.

(Speculation)
Which the timing makes sense I guess? since the Wagnerovites are assaulting from Novoluhanske/Vuhlevirsk to the west side of the settlements, and the supply route to Bakhmut (Which is about to be assaulted soon) goes through Kostiantynivka.
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Storr
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« Reply #13186 on: July 31, 2022, 11:53:05 AM »
« Edited: July 31, 2022, 12:35:33 PM by Storr »
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Bulgaria, a country with strong historical and cultural links with Russia.




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Storr
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« Reply #13187 on: July 31, 2022, 12:05:26 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2022, 12:13:39 PM by Storr »
It seems unlikely to a be coincidence that Chubias' preliminary diagnosis is a rare neurological disorder and that Russia's favored method of assassination is the use of nerve agents.  Beyond being a Putin "advisor", Chubias was a Deputy Prime Minister and Kremlin Chief of Staff during the Yeltsin era.   

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #13188 on: July 31, 2022, 12:39:06 PM »


Not so noteworthy for Russian stuff being blown up (as there a dozen video a day of that) but for the juxtaposition of a lovely sunflower field and a rocket being launched.
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Woody
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« Reply #13189 on: July 31, 2022, 12:43:13 PM »
Russians going all in for solidifying the bridge.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13190 on: July 31, 2022, 12:48:05 PM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on July 31, 2022, 12:43:13 PM
Russians going all in for solidifying the bridge.



Do you think Ukraine can get HIMARS or similar-type systems to strike the bridge? Do you think Russia can resist or nullify the effect of such strikes?
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Woody
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« Reply #13191 on: July 31, 2022, 01:08:55 PM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on July 31, 2022, 12:48:05 PM
Quote from: SirWoodbury on July 31, 2022, 12:43:13 PM
Russians going all in for solidifying the bridge.



Do you think Ukraine can get HIMARS or similar-type systems to strike the bridge? Do you think Russia can resist or nullify the effect of such strikes?
Have no earthly idea.

I don't know how HIMARS are designed against such targets, if they really are covering it with plates and just guzzling it all with cement I still couldn't say. Bridges in general are pretty hard to just completely destroy in wartime, even during Vietnam.

I don't know if they could render it ineffective or damage it significantly.. guess this is just one of those things we will have to watch as time goes on, just a matter of days as UA pounds the bridge, we will see how effective it is.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13192 on: July 31, 2022, 01:13:25 PM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on July 31, 2022, 01:08:55 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on July 31, 2022, 12:48:05 PM
Quote from: SirWoodbury on July 31, 2022, 12:43:13 PM
Russians going all in for solidifying the bridge.



Do you think Ukraine can get HIMARS or similar-type systems to strike the bridge? Do you think Russia can resist or nullify the effect of such strikes?
Have no earthly idea.

I don't know how HIMARS are designed against such targets, if they really are covering it with plates and just guzzling it all with cement I still couldn't say. Bridges in general are pretty hard to just completely destroy in wartime, even during Vietnam.

I don't know if they could render it ineffective or damage it significantly.. guess this is just one of those things we will have to watch as time goes on, just a matter of days as UA pounds the bridge, we will see how effective it is.
I see. Fair enough.
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Storr
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« Reply #13193 on: July 31, 2022, 02:04:50 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2022, 02:17:28 PM by Storr »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on July 31, 2022, 12:43:13 PM
Russians going all in for solidifying the bridge.




Russian video of the replacement ferry. It appears to have fairly limited capacity. Scaffolding can be seen on the underside of the bridge:

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jaichind
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« Reply #13194 on: July 31, 2022, 02:23:18 PM »
https://rs.n1info.com/english/news/serbian-ruling-party-mp-serbia-might-have-to-begin-denazification-of-balkans/

"Serbian ruling party MP: Serbia might have to begin denazification of Balkans"


https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-border-corssing-blocked-tensions/31967812.html

Tensions Rise Again Along Serbia-Kosovo Border As Protesters Block Crossings

Second front to open soon?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13195 on: July 31, 2022, 02:29:27 PM »
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13196 on: July 31, 2022, 03:19:15 PM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on July 31, 2022, 01:08:55 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on July 31, 2022, 12:48:05 PM
Quote from: SirWoodbury on July 31, 2022, 12:43:13 PM
Russians going all in for solidifying the bridge.



Do you think Ukraine can get HIMARS or similar-type systems to strike the bridge? Do you think Russia can resist or nullify the effect of such strikes?
Have no earthly idea.

I don't know how HIMARS are designed against such targets, if they really are covering it with plates and just guzzling it all with cement I still couldn't say. Bridges in general are pretty hard to just completely destroy in wartime, even during Vietnam.

I don't know if they could render it ineffective or damage it significantly.. guess this is just one of those things we will have to watch as time goes on, just a matter of days as UA pounds the bridge, we will see how effective it is.

Well, I would imagine Ukrainian Special Forces using plastic explosives could take out one or two of the under-pillars supporting the bridge and pretty much make it useless for awhile.

Seem to recall a similar action way further behind enemy lines in Russia occupied Kherson province.

Ukraine did receive something like (18) riverboats in one of the more recent US military aid packages.

Sure it would be risky as all freaking hell, but it's not as if Ukrainian Special Forces haven't conducted high-risk and high-reward operations in the past, such as the Helicopter resupply / rescuing wounded  Ukrainian soldiers during the "Battle of the Steelworks", or the purported (But unconfirmed) Ukrainian helicopter raid into Russia proper to hit a large fuel depot a couple months back.
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Storr
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« Reply #13197 on: July 31, 2022, 03:35:08 PM »
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13198 on: July 31, 2022, 04:05:10 PM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on July 31, 2022, 02:29:27 PM


Yeah... interesting concept of graves having been dug prior to the incident.

I saw a couple MSM news sources in the American Press which included comments from previous "detainees", or family member of detainees, but believe I neglected to post them, so having to scramble around to try to find relevant quotes that might closer approximate to the timeline... but don't want to spend all day pulling up many of the previous recent articles I have read.

Pretty sure I read recent accounts on the NYT & WP, and possibly the WSJ, from family members of the Ukrainian POWs held at the camp, who had some relatively recent info regarding not only the overall conditions, but also had received Telegram messages from Russian soldiers taunting them on their cell phones....

Still, this is the closest account I can find without more extensive research, but if so it looks like even if mass graves were created in advance, at least two prisoners were likely relocated to the "new facility" on the day of the explosion, and if so not all of the (47 ??) dead would have been summarily executed prior.

Quote
Tetiana Kravchenko, a Ukrainian rights activist whose organization has been in contact with prisoners in the camp, said that a prisoner had called his wife on Thursday night and reported hearing an explosion, rather than shelling, around 11 p.m. She said she had a recording of the call, in which the prisoner said that two of his friends had been moved to a different building within the prison on the day of the explosion and that one was now dead and the other wounded.

Soldiers held in other parts of the camp have also relayed similar accounts to their own family members, she said.

The competing claims could not be immediately independently verified. Ms. Kravchenko said she could not disclose more information without risking the safety of prisoners still being held at the camp.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/30/world/europe/ukraine-prison-explosion.html?searchResultPosition=7

Here's another recent story about the camp, but it doesn't cover the current timeline.

Quote
Stas Hlushko, 37, a civilian prisoner released on July 4 from the camp, Correctional Colony No. 120, said the blast site was far from the barracks where hundreds of prisoners are being held.

He described how new inmates were beaten upon arrival.

“As prison guards explained to us, it’s important for the prisoner to be humiliated at once,” he said. “The torture of us civilians was not so bad as for soldiers.” He described how camp guards would create a “corridor” and force new prisoners to run the gantlet as he was beaten with “chains, metal pipes and so on.”

“One emergency service guy was put in our cell and for a day couldn’t move,” he said. “He was tortured with electricity.”

Quote
Incidents of torture and inhumane living conditions at Correctional Colony No. 120 were described by several former prisoners and by family members of people still being held.

Vitaliy Sytnikov, a 35-year-old civilian who was arrested while trying to evacuate other residents from Mariupol in March, described a disciplinary cell known as “the pit.”

“Almost every day we heard the beatings of prisoners of war there,” Mr. Sytnikov said in a telephone interview. He said that most of the people who were beaten were soldiers who had defended the Azovstal steel plant.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/31/world/europe/prisoners-describe-harsh-treatment-in-the-russian-camp-where-an-explosion-killed-dozens.html
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13199 on: July 31, 2022, 04:11:12 PM »
Quote from: Storr on July 31, 2022, 03:35:08 PM


WOW!!!

If I'm reading the map right that is 80 km from the front lines?

If so is basically on the far outer limit of the current US HIMARS range with the ammo we are currently providing.
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