Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

The two ships being transferred to the Ukrainian Navy are HMS Ramsey and HMS Blyth, Sandown-class minehunters, commissioned in 2000 and 2001 respectively. They are newer than any minesweepers the US Navy could give. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1554255665010544642?s=20&t=touH6L...

Dang... I even just checked The Guardian and the BBC prior to posting to see if England had chipped in as well.   

So yeah, basically the way this works is that Ukraine privately requests certain items on a list, and all of the countries willing to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, basically go through the "shopping list", with representatives from all of the various "Alliance Countries", and then depending upon political will, availability, inventory levels, budgets, national security concerns, etc... basically offer to "chip in".

Much of this is done way under the political and media radar levels.

Typically there can easily be a 1-2 Month "waiting period" between approval for shipping the "product", before it is transferred directly into the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

There was a really good high quality story I read about this a week or so back from one of the main US solid newspapers (NYT,WP, or WSJ... can remember offhand).

Still wondering what exactly these Minesweeper would be used for, other than perhaps to clear mines from dangerous shipping lanes, where most likely both Ukrainian and Russian mines have at various times broken loose?

So Ukrainian Grain exported along with Russian fertilizer so that Merchant Marines, and the owners of the ships, feel comfortable that they won't be targeted?

Strange donation request, since naturally Ukraine does not have anything approaching an offensive naval force in the Black Sea, so doubt Minesweepers are preparing for an Ukrainian Naval offense anytime soon....

[Virginiá]

US announced another $550 Million arms package to Ukraine today... looks to be mostly ammo:

The arms transfer will include ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, rocket launchers that have been used to destroy Russian command posts and ammunition depots as well as for 155-millimeter howitzers already in use by Ukrainian troops, Mr. Kirby said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/world/us-ukraine-weapons-military-aid.html

Germany apparently just delivered some additional weapons systems:

Ukraine on Monday confirmed the delivery of precision multiple-launch rocket systems from Germany, bolstering a growing arsenal that has been credited with destroying dozens of strategically important Russian targets. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht recently said that an initial delivery of German Gepard antiaircraft weapons has arrived in Ukraine and that Germany is sending more self-propelled howitzers than initially planned. Several German IRIS-T air defense systems are also slated for delivery in the autumn.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

FTR the Gepard anti-aircraft tanks had to be used with ammunition from Norway that apparently turned out to not be compatible, so right now these are not particularly useful until adjustments are made.

Also I don't think that aid package was all ammunition. It was mentioned in another article that these were the topline items, "among other things." Plus going by the dollar amount, and by the cost of standard 155mm artillery shells, it wouldn't add up unless the US was giving Ukraine thousands of rockets in one go. I remember seeing a request by Ukraine a month or two ago about its "partners" being a bit more opaque about military aid, so that might be it. Then again, it's also possible I mistranslated the quote as my Russian is a tad rusty (like their tanks).

FWIW, it's probably in America's interest to not send large batches of MLRS rockets at once anyway, as that increases the risk of Russian conducting their own successful attacks on Ukraine's munition supplies. It also allows the US to more tightly control Ukraine's missile usage by forcing them to be frugal and only save them for high-priority targets.

[NOVA Green]

US announced another $550 Million arms package to Ukraine today... looks to be mostly ammo:

The arms transfer will include ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, rocket launchers that have been used to destroy Russian command posts and ammunition depots as well as for 155-millimeter howitzers already in use by Ukrainian troops, Mr. Kirby said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/world/us-ukraine-weapons-military-aid.html

Germany apparently just delivered some additional weapons systems:

Ukraine on Monday confirmed the delivery of precision multiple-launch rocket systems from Germany, bolstering a growing arsenal that has been credited with destroying dozens of strategically important Russian targets. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht recently said that an initial delivery of German Gepard antiaircraft weapons has arrived in Ukraine and that Germany is sending more self-propelled howitzers than initially planned. Several German IRIS-T air defense systems are also slated for delivery in the autumn.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

FTR the Gepard anti-aircraft tanks had to be used with ammunition from Norway that apparently turned out to not be compatible, so right now these are not particularly useful until adjustments are made.

Also I don't think that aid package was all ammunition. It was mentioned in another article that these were the topline items, "among other things." Plus going by the dollar amount, and by the cost of standard 155mm artillery shells, it wouldn't add up unless the US was giving Ukraine thousands of rockets in one go. I remember seeing a request by Ukraine a month or two ago about its "partners" being a bit more opaque about military aid, so that might be it. Then again, it's also possible I mistranslated the quote as my Russian is a tad rusty (like their tanks).

FWIW, it's probably in America's interest to not send large batches of MLRS rockets at once anyway, as that increases the risk of Russian conducting their own successful attacks on Ukraine's munition supplies. It also allows the US to more tightly control Ukraine's missile usage by forcing them to be frugal and only save them for high-priority targets.

Your Russian is likely much less rusty than my German!

Regarding the Gepard anti-aircraft tanks and ammo supplied from Norway, would imagine it would be easier to "modify the barrel" vs "modifying the ammo.

Pretty sure Europe still has plenty of armament factories, Steel Mills, Tool & Die factories, etc which can make minor modifications to the barrels?

Agree on supplies of MLRS rockets, since it sounds like the US have already depleted something like 35% of inventory, and naturally will take the one factory a bit of time to expand and build new MFG lines, which is difficult enough even in the PRIV SECTOR, from my humble experience...

Takes a bit of time to build world-class quality MFG-MIL-FACILITIES, and I as I believe posted about a month or so ago, we only have (1) USA military munitions facility remaining vs (6) during the height of the US Involvement in the Vietnamese Civil War...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The two ships being transferred to the Ukrainian Navy are HMS Ramsey and HMS Blyth, Sandown-class minehunters, commissioned in 2000 and 2001 respectively. They are newer than any minesweepers the US Navy could give. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1554255665010544642?s=20&t=touH6L...

Dang... I even just checked The Guardian and the BBC prior to posting to see if England had chipped in as well.   

So yeah, basically the way this works is that Ukraine privately requests certain items on a list, and all of the countries willing to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, basically go through the "shopping list", with representatives from all of the various "Alliance Countries", and then depending upon political will, availability, inventory levels, budgets, national security concerns, etc... basically offer to "chip in".

Much of this is done way under the political and media radar levels.

Typically there can easily be a 1-2 Month "waiting period" between approval for shipping the "product", before it is transferred directly into the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

There was a really good high quality story I read about this a week or so back from one of the main US solid newspapers (NYT,WP, or WSJ... can remember offhand).

Still wondering what exactly these Minesweeper would be used for, other than perhaps to clear mines from dangerous shipping lanes, where most likely both Ukrainian and Russian mines have at various times broken loose?

So Ukrainian Grain exported along with Russian fertilizer so that Merchant Marines, and the owners of the ships, feel comfortable that they won't be targeted?

Strange donation request, since naturally Ukraine does not have anything approaching an offensive naval force in the Black Sea, so doubt Minesweepers are preparing for an Ukrainian Naval offense anytime soon....

These vessels are not aid - they were actually purchased months before the war and training had started when it broke out. I'm not sure how they're supposed to get to Ukraine - they're probably too big to be transported over land, they can't go through the Straits right now because of the Montreux Convention, and going via inland rivers would require passage through parts of the Danube which are on Serbian territory. Serbia would probably veto delivery via the Danube.

[Torie]

Given its role as the supplier of the weapons of war/defense, I wonder how closely the US (NATO) is coordinating with Ukraine on a day to day basis as to intelligence and tactics. Does anyone have any sense of that?

[Storr]

Good news:
https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1554523894559694848?s=20&t=YZIs4QtNifHk...

[Storr]

A good example of just how manipulative Russian state TV is:https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1554052487623098370?s=20&t=DD9xDLbo...

[nicholas.slaydon]

A good example of just how manipulative Russian state TV is:https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1554052487623098370?s=20&t=DD9xDLbo...

Wow, that's like some North Korea style propaganda there.

[President Johnson]

A new Yale study finds that the Russian economy is in shambles as a result of sanctions, despite Kremlin propaganda and some Western news articles that only base on selective facts.

https://twitter.com/jerryjamesstone/status/1553311082768281600

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good thing this guy is now about as relevant in Parliament as the Sinn Fein members who don't even take their seats: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/02/jeremy-corbyn-urges-west-to-stop-arming-ukraine

[TheReckoning]

A new Yale study finds that the Russian economy is in shambles as a result of sanctions, despite Kremlin propaganda and some Western news articles that only base on selective facts.

https://twitter.com/jerryjamesstone/status/1553311082768281600

That’s not a good thing. Sanctions only hurt civilians, not governments. Theres a reason why every country with an economy in “shambles” still has all the higher-ups in government living in palaces. The Russian people don’t deserve to be hurt, but that’s the only thing that comes out of sanctions.

[DINGO Joe]

Despite Russia being uncooperative or incapable of running their gas lines to Europe, the EU is well ahead of pace for filling their NG storage for winter.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/080222-eu-wide-gas-stocks-on-track-for-nov1-target-after-july-injections

In fact if they fill as fast in August as they did in July, they'll hit their goal by the end of August instead of the end of October.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Despite Russia being uncooperative or incapable of running their gas lines to Europe, the EU is well ahead of pace for filling their NG storage for winter.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/080222-eu-wide-gas-stocks-on-track-for-nov1-target-after-july-injections

In fact if they fill as fast in August as they did in July, they'll hit their goal by the end of August instead of the end of October.

Russia is far more dependent on EU money for gas. Over 90% of Russian gas is sent to the EU, while 40% of EU gas is from Russia.

There were Western sanctions against Apartheid South Africa, Communist Poland and Communist Romania in the Cold War. All of these regimes collapsed in part to the sanctions.

[2952-0-0]

That’s not a good thing. Sanctions only hurt civilians, not governments. Theres a reason why every country with an economy in “shambles” still has all the higher-ups in government living in palaces. The Russian people don’t deserve to be hurt, but that’s the only thing that comes out of sanctions.

The purpose of these sanctions was to cripple the Russian economy's ability to sustain the cost of a long war, not to provoke a regime change in the Kremlin. These are completely different from the US sanctions on (say) Cuba, which exist purely because a small group of sore losers are located in a swing state. This is the most important nugget in the article:

The study said Russian imports have largely collapsed since the war began, and that the country is facing stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology.

"Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent," the team found.

"The hollowing out of Russia's domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst," the authors added.

[Sir Mohamed]

That’s not a good thing. Sanctions only hurt civilians, not governments. Theres a reason why every country with an economy in “shambles” still has all the higher-ups in government living in palaces. The Russian people don’t deserve to be hurt, but that’s the only thing that comes out of sanctions.

The purpose of these sanctions was to cripple the Russian economy's ability to sustain the cost of a long war, not to provoke a regime change in the Kremlin. These are completely different from the US sanctions on (say) Cuba, which exist purely because a small group of sore losers are located in a swing state. This is the most important nugget in the article:

The study said Russian imports have largely collapsed since the war began, and that the country is facing stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology.

"Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent," the team found.

"The hollowing out of Russia's domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst," the authors added.

Maybe provoke regime change in the long run. That's still unlikely, though, because there's literally no free press in Russia and a majority of people just eat up what Kremlin propaganda channels tell to believe.

[Torie]

A new Yale study finds that the Russian economy is in shambles as a result of sanctions, despite Kremlin propaganda and some Western news articles that only base on selective facts.

https://twitter.com/jerryjamesstone/status/1553311082768281600

That’s not a good thing. Sanctions only hurt civilians, not governments. Theres a reason why every country with an economy in “shambles” still has all the higher-ups in government living in palaces. The Russian people don’t deserve to be hurt, but that’s the only thing that comes out of sanctions.

Nice “try,” but aside from the reduction in revenues from energy exports used to finance the war (sales to Asia in lieu of Europe are at a 35% discount – China and India are bottom feeding predators here as it were), when you don’t have the ability to fabricate domestically components critical to producing and maintaining the instruments of waging war, and they stop working, it’s back to bows and arrows.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/sanctions-against-russia-are-working_en

“Sanctions on semiconductors imports for instance have a direct impact on Russian companies that produce consumer electronics, computers, airplanes, cars, or military equipment. In this field, which is obviously crucial in the war in Ukraine, sanctions limit Russia's capacity to produce precision missiles. On the ground, the Russian army is not making much use of this type of precision-guided missiles, not out of moderation, but out of necessity, as it does not have enough of them. In addition, the Russian air force has underperformed in Ukraine, also because it lacks precision-guided munitions.”

Putin is not only a sociopath, he’s a fool. He just didn’t think this one through.

Oh yes, the propped up and artificial ruble exchange rate thing that has received such focus here from a certain quarter, is a lagging indicator of economic health, not a leading one. Russia is “saving” a lot of money by not importing much as it reverts to a more primitive economic autarchy with its useless rubles gathering dust.

[Woody]

Livemap has Pisky and it's surroundings as under the control of RU.. if so, this is the first suburb of Donetsk City to fall since the invasion. A little surprised it fell relatively quickly when they started their assault, compared to other fronts, as I thought this was the most entrenched and heavily defended positions Ukrainians have of all fronts. But from what I have seen and heard from UA fighters on the ground, Russians have been pounding both of these settlements non-stop with artillery fire, so being mobile and effective there is probably no use.

Probably still some fighters left in the outskirts from what I can gather.
 
Avdiivka to the north is still contested. If it falls (along with Marinka to the city's west), Donetsk City proper and it's suburbs/settlements is under RU control.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1554805677293535234

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1554910466098479105?s=20&t=uewvEFMH4...

[Storr]

Livemap has Pisky and it's surroundings as under the control of RU.. if so, this is the first suburb of Donetsk City to fall since the invasion. A little surprised it fell relatively quickly when they started their assault, compared to other fronts, as I thought this was the most entrenched and heavily defended positions Ukrainians have of all fronts. But from what I have seen and heard from UA fighters on the ground, Russians have been pounding both of these settlements non-stop with artillery fire, so being mobile and effective there is probably no use.

Probably still some fighters left in the outskirts from what I can gather.
 
Avdiivka to the north is still contested. If it falls (along with Marinka to the city's west), Donetsk City proper and it's suburbs/settlements is under RU control.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1554805677293535234

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1554882124255215616?s=20&t=uguLpkQm3oGRt5...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1554882137513394177?s=20&t=uguLpkQm3oGRt5...

[Storr]

An informative (imo) podcast about Zelensky's recent firings of several key figures in his administration, which I didn't have much context for before listening to:

https://twitter.com/ForeignOffPod/status/1554111773783085056?s=20&t=5ntOFHVk...

Just today one of those recently let go, ex-Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova, was nominated to be ambassador to Switzerland:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1554780200491163649?s=20&t=0g1tPh...

[NewYorkExpress]

Dimitry Medvedev is calling for reestablishing the Soviet Union on social media.

A social media post that appeared on the account of former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev described how Russia should "restore the borders of our Motherland."

The page on Medvedev's VKontakte account referred to ex-Soviet countries neighboring Russia such as Georgia and Kazakhstan and was deleted within 10 minutes. His aide Oleg Osipov told the Tass news agency that the social media account had been hacked.

The message was still up for long enough for opposition figure and TV personality Ksenia Sobchak to post screenshots of the purported Medvedev post, which outlines a hawkish geopolitical vision for Russia's future following the war in Ukraine.


The post said that "after the liberation of Kyiv and all the territories of Little Russia from gangs of nationalists... Russia will become united again."


It also said that before 1801, Georgia as a country didn't exist, and that it was part of the Russian empire and that "North and South Ossetia, Abkhazia and the remaining territories of Georgia can only be united as part of a single state with Russia."

[2952-0-0]

Maybe provoke regime change in the long run. That's still unlikely, though, because there's literally no free press in Russia and a majority of people just eat up what Kremlin propaganda channels tell to believe.

We'll have to see. Dictatorships have survived far worse than a failed war of conquest. The Kim and Castro regimes defied all odds and survive to this day. I was told by Cubans when I was there, that the 1980s were the most materially wealthiest period, but also the most politically and socially repressive. Fidel Castro survived the Soviet collapse by legalizing dollars and some private businesses. So, dictatorships are often adept at surviving, when their existence is at stake.

But...

A sizeable minority of Russians have come to expect a first-world standard of living with iCrap, overpriced coffee, and fancy vacations. For all that to be rudely taken away by a war that turned into a disaster would shock their perspective of Putin. Putin, in turn, will have to resort to the jackboot to hold onto power; but Kamil Galeev pointed out that Russia is so large, and so centralized, that a failure in the patronage system will lead to regional leaders simply ignoring the Kremlin and finding their own way.

So, it's quite possible after a hypothetical Russian defeat, that Putin remains in the Kremlin, but as little more than a Grand Duke of Moscovy.

[NOVA Green]

Surprised that nobody has mentioned much other than the "War Front", and nobody has yet mentioned this on the thread:

Sure, technically more US-DOM-POL, but yet still appears to be a consistency of US-Foreign Policy in Ukraine regardless of 2022 Elections:

The Senate on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved a treaty that would expand NATO to include Finland and Sweden, with Republicans and Democrats linking arms to pave the way for one of the most significant expansions of the alliance in decades amid Russia’s continued assault on Ukraine.

The vote was 95 to 1, with only Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, opposing the move. The lopsided tally, far surpassing the two-thirds support necessary to approve a treaty, underscored the bipartisan appetite for a more muscular Western military alliance even amid threats from Russian officials that Sweden and Finland would face retaliation should they join NATO.

“Finland’s and Sweden’s membership will strengthen NATO even further, and is all the more urgent given Russian aggression, given Putin’s immoral and unjustified war in Ukraine,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader. “Putin is strengthening the NATO alliance, and nothing shows it better” than the Senate’s resounding approval of the pact.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/03/us/politics/sweden-finland-nato-senate-vote.html

[NOVA Green]

Naturally now time to talk about the "Food Wars".

We have all ready seen one government fall (Sri Lanka) as a direct result of the Russian-Ukraine War of 2022.

We are also looking at a global situation where over 500 Million Humans are directly impacted as a result of Climate Change, lack of access to basic food needs throughout the Global South, etc...

Naturally lack of access to basic needs such as "Food", tends to trigger political instability globally, which will impact the Global South, regardless of their votes for whom many see as a proxy war between the US and Russia.

Still, if Ukrainian Grain Shipments are held much longer in the harbors of Ukraine, pretty clear they will not be viable commodities when it comes to edible human consumption.

Grain storage facilities in Ukraine are packed with a new crop coming up shortly.

There was an alleged "deal", and now looks like we might have a ton more ships riding the dangerous waters to feed the "Global Poor"

Sixteen more cargo ships are loaded with grain and ready to depart Ukrainian ports, officials said Wednesday. The ships are awaiting final approval as countries around the world struggle with skyrocketing prices of food. Earlier Wednesday, the first ship to leave Ukraine with grain since the war began passed inspection in Turkey and carried on to Lebanon. Ukraine’s prime minister also increased the nation’s 2022 grain harvest forecast from 60 million metric tons to at least 65 million.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/03/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Any early UK "Alt-Punk" band from the '80s Chumbawumba did an album called: "Pictures of Starving Children Sell Records"...

Basically a concept album and not really a "Punk Album"...

Still many of the younger Atlas members didn't recall the mass starvations going on in places such as Ethiopia in the mid '80s, "Civil Wars in Central America", Apartheid in South Afrika etc...

Regardless of whatever caused the Russian Elites to invade and occupy Ukraine in 2022, it is imperative that the Global Community unites in such a way that Millions of people don't die in Planet Earth, especially in the Equatorial Regions most heavily hit by Climate Change when it comes to subsistence farming, in search of basic needs such as food and water...

PUBS in America like to hate on the more recent waves of Central American "Convoys" trying to cross the border into America, but reality, is that Climate Change has massively disrupted food production my many traditional Native American Pops in places such as Guatemala and Honduras...

[Badger]

A new Yale study finds that the Russian economy is in shambles as a result of sanctions, despite Kremlin propaganda and some Western news articles that only base on selective facts.

https://twitter.com/jerryjamesstone/status/1553311082768281600

No no no no no no no! Jaichind has assured me with numerous one hand typed posts that rushes economy is flourishing and Western sanctions are utterly failing to the relief of his portfolio!