Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DavidB.]

Had missed this. Always that sanctimonious face as well. He looks like a harmless fool, but he was the leader of the Labour Party in the last general election. Just take a second to imagine the disaster if this man were the Prime Minister of the UK right now.

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1554360196935335936

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe provoke regime change in the long run. That's still unlikely, though, because there's literally no free press in Russia and a majority of people just eat up what Kremlin propaganda channels tell to believe.

We'll have to see. Dictatorships have survived far worse than a failed war of conquest. The Kim and Castro regimes defied all odds and survive to this day. I was told by Cubans when I was there, that the 1980s were the most materially wealthiest period, but also the most politically and socially repressive. Fidel Castro survived the Soviet collapse by legalizing dollars and some private businesses. So, dictatorships are often adept at surviving, when their existence is at stake.

Its very hard to overstate how useful the "vengeful US" bogeyman was for Castro in deflecting mass popular discontent from his own regime though. Its no coincidence either that near economic collapse following the fall of the USSR caused some belated modernisation and liberalisation.

[2952-0-0]

Its very hard to overstate how useful the "vengeful US" bogeyman was for Castro in deflecting mass popular discontent from his own regime though. Its no coincidence either that near economic collapse following the fall of the USSR caused some belated modernisation and liberalisation.

Of course. That's why the "western powers led by the US are out to get us" propaganda line will be useful for dictatorships seeking to distract their populations from their failing economies, and that we can't automatically expect a regime change even if Russia completely loses this war.

But even that has limits. Most Cubans, from my understanding, do recognize the US embargo as unfair, but largely blame their own leadership for the long lines and power blackouts they endure. They're especially enraged at (for instance) the all-inclusive beach resorts having all-you-can-eat buffets and reliable power, since the resorts are owned by the state or even the military. Hence, the country's scarce resources are funnelled into resorts that generate foreign exchange that enrich the party elite.

Hence, the cliché that Russians are willing to endure horrible leadership still holds true, until it doesn't. Which is itself a cliché.

[jaichind]

https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

"UKRAINIAN FIGHTING TACTICS ENDANGER CIVILIANS"

Amnesty International which clearly is no friend of Russia gets around to complain about Ukrainian tactics

[2952-0-0]

https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

"UKRAINIAN FIGHTING TACTICS ENDANGER CIVILIANS"

Amnesty International which clearly is no friend of Russia gets around to complain about Ukrainian tactics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

[Sir Mohamed]

https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

"UKRAINIAN FIGHTING TACTICS ENDANGER CIVILIANS"

Amnesty International which clearly is no friend of Russia gets around to complain about Ukrainian tactics

Russians can immediately end this by going back to Russia. Ukraine can't, because their country wouldn't exist anymore.

[2952-0-0]

https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

"UKRAINIAN FIGHTING TACTICS ENDANGER CIVILIANS"

Amnesty International which clearly is no friend of Russia gets around to complain about Ukrainian tactics

Russians can immediately end this by going back to Russia. Ukraine can't, because their country wouldn't exist anymore.

I wonder what Jaichind thought of the army of Nationalist China using scorched earth tactics - including intentionally flooding the North China Plain - in order to disrupt the invading Japanese army.

[jaichind]

https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

"UKRAINIAN FIGHTING TACTICS ENDANGER CIVILIANS"

Amnesty International which clearly is no friend of Russia gets around to complain about Ukrainian tactics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Just to be clear I have no problem with these Ukrainian tactics and in fact support them since All is fair in love and war.  War is a matter of life and death and all tactics has to be on table to achieve victory. 

My main point is that this news is a signal that this is a sign that the progressive left NGO anti-Russian front might be breaking and some are beginning to distance themselves from Zelensky.

[2952-0-0]

Just to be clear I have no problem with these Ukrainian tactics and in fact support them since All is fair in love and war.  War is a matter of life and death and all tactics has to be on table to achieve victory. 

My main point is that this news is a signal that this is a sign that the progressive left NGO anti-Russian front might be breaking and some are beginning to distance themselves from Zelensky.

The war would end tomorrow if Russia simply withdraws its troops back to its own territory, and Putin declares his "special military operation" a success. Not a single more person, Russian or Ukrainian, military or civilian, would die, and the west would probably lose interest in sanctions by the end of the year. Everyone wins. Except Putin's personal ego.

To draw a line from "Amnesty International criticizes Ukrainian troops for being to close to civilian buildings" to "lol teh woke left are breaking up from supporting Ukraine" would require mental gymnastics that would make Ah Q [for non-Chinese: a figure in a Chinese short story written in the 1920s, who lives a miserable life, and who spins his failures as successes] proud.

[rc18]

https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

"UKRAINIAN FIGHTING TACTICS ENDANGER CIVILIANS"

Amnesty International which clearly is no friend of Russia gets around to complain about Ukrainian tactics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Just to be clear I have no problem with these Ukrainian tactics and in fact support them since All is fair in love and war.  War is a matter of life and death and all tactics has to be on table to achieve victory.  

My main point is that this news is a signal that this is a sign that the progressive left NGO anti-Russian front might be breaking and some are beginning to distance themselves from Zelensky.

The 'progressive left NGOs' as you put it were never on Zelenskys side in the first place. These are organisations that have been fully captured by people with similar views to, for instance, Corbyn. They are just shills for anyone they perceive as anti-West.

[jaichind]

In a couple of days Spain has gone from

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/02/1115113636/spains-prime-minister-has-a-proposal-to-cut-the-costs-of-keeping-cool

"Spain's prime minister has a proposal to cut the costs of keeping cool"

Pedro Sanchez, has a proposal. He says men ought to ditch their ties at work. Now, Sanchez stopped wearing ties himself. And the Spanish government is telling its citizens to save on electricity bills by not blasting the air conditioning.

This is actually a copy of  now Tokyo governor  Koike's 2005 campaign to reduce energy use

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cool_Biz_campaign


to

https://menafn.com/1104644265/Spain-to-issue-huge-fines-for-non-compliance-with-energy-restrictions

"Spain to issue huge fines for non-compliance with energy restrictions"

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/4/zelenskyy-urges-chinas-xi-to-help-end-russias-war-in-ukraine

"Zelenskyy urges China’s Xi to help end Russia’s war in Ukraine"

PRC's response should be: OK, for starters please put out this public statement first

"The current criminal war Russia is inflicting on Ukraine is based on its "intervention" into puppet separatist regimes in the Donbass.  The Donbass is a part of Ukraine and any issues between Kyiv and Donbass is an internal matter and Russia's intervention into a internal matter of Ukraine is criminal and unacceptable. Likewise Taiwan is a part of One China and any issues between Beijing and Taipei is an internal Chinese matter. We denounce any external intervention into the domestic Beijing-Taipei conflict  and any such intervention is just as criminal as the illegal war Russia has inflict on Ukraine using the pretext of "protecting" the "rights and freedoms" of Ukrainians in Donbass  region."

After that we will get involved to see what we can do to convince Russia to be reasonable in this conflict.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/4/zelenskyy-urges-chinas-xi-to-help-end-russias-war-in-ukraine

"Zelenskyy urges China’s Xi to help end Russia’s war in Ukraine"

PRC's response should be: OK, for starters please put out this public statement first

"The current criminal war Russia is inflicting on Ukraine is based on its "intervention" into puppet separatist regimes in the Donbass.  The Donbass is a part of Ukraine and any issues between Kyiv and Donbass is an internal matter and Russia's intervention into a internal matter of Ukraine is criminal and unacceptable. Likewise Taiwan is a part of One China and any issues between Beijing and Taipei is an internal Chinese matter. We denounce any external intervention into the domestic Beijing-Taipei conflict  and any such intervention is just as criminal as the illegal war Russia has inflict on Ukraine using the pretext of "protecting" the "rights and freedoms" of Ukrainians in Donbass  region."

After that we will get involved to see what we can do to convince Russia to be reasonable in this conflict.

Clever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 'progressive left NGOs' as you put it were never on Zelenskys side in the first place. These are organisations that have been fully captured by people with similar views to, for instance, Corbyn. They are just shills for anyone they perceive as anti-West.

Yes, Amnesty has (very regrettably) been an increasingly unfunny joke for years* and while this report is an embarrassment it doesn't come as a surprise. It also augers nothing about mainstream Western centre-left opinion which remains firmly pro-Ukraine.

_{*For complete balance it should be noted that some sections of it do still do good work here and there, but...}

[jaichind]

https://eurasiantimes.com/india-hypersonic-brahmos-ii-missile-could-be-based-on-zircon/?amp

"India’s 1st Hypersonic Missile Could Be Modeled On Russia’s Ferocious Zircon; Missiles Not To Be Exported — CEO"

Looks like India's first hypersonic weapon will be based on Russian technology.   In theory this means India might get sanctioned by the collective West. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a new poll conducted and released in Germany, 61% of Green party voters support temporarily extending the lifespan of the three remaining nuclear power plants beyond the planned shutdown date of December 31, 2022.

In the general population this option reaches only a support of 41%, because another 41% say that they'd support using nuclear energy on a long-term basis rather than temporarily.

Meanwhile, AfD voters are split 48/47 whether to expand the usage of wind power, the only political party whose supporters don't back such a measure with at least a three-quarter majority. I guess we all have our hill to die on (wind power like all renewables is largely associated with the Greens and AfD voters tend to oppose everything the Greens stand for, as a matter of principle).

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-3105.html

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1554944225552252928?s=20&t=8ChfaypI6nBF...

[GoTfan]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

[NOVA Green]

Maybe time to buy Gold or Swiss luxury watches?

Switzerland on Wednesday banned imports of Russian gold and gold products, on the heels of similar moves by the European Union and the United States.

The country is a leader in the gold refining market, according to a 2018 watch and jewelry sector report by the World Wildlife Fund, with 60 to 70 percent of the world’s gold passing through Switzerland to be refined. The precious metal is a common material in Swiss luxury watches.

Russia is one of the world’s biggest producers of gold, and has cranked up the mining of new gold to compensate for the frozen reserves held by Russian companies and oligarchs under sanctions, said Christopher Swift, a national security lawyer who formerly worked at the U.S. Treasury Department’s office of foreign assets control.

Demand for gold has shrunk 8 percent compared with this time last year, according to the World Gold Council.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/04/world/ukraine-russia-news-war

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

[The Dowager Mod]

Boom!
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1555288621787275271

[NOVA Green]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

Good catch!

I will also say on the subject of the Ukrainian Airforce using their fighter jets in a ground-support role, there was an article in either the NYT, WP, or WSJ within the past ~week in their Kherson Province counter offensive... believe something like (4) Ukrainian Fighter jets were referenced while the reporter was embedded with Ukrainian forces near the front lines?

[NOVA Green]

Boom!
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1555288621787275271

This is likely the advantage of a mixture of an either / or / neither combo of three options:

1.) NATO SIGINT Capabilities
2.) Russian Compromised Communication Systems and/or Unencrypted Radio transmissions
3.) Successful Ukrainian drone penetration able to execute the operation.

Watched the video multiple times, but doesn't really look like an IED hit, or small-arms fire.

Artillery generally works much better against fixed targets versus moving targets, although in theory I guess one could preposition the artillery to hit a certain GIS coordinates, and then trigger the artillery to hit once certain software detects motions, once the remote analyst confirms it is a legit target?

Also other traps can be set such as using laser guided trips to trigger either IED or lurking drone munitions to hit an area also under surveillance.

Will be interesting to see what the Geo-Locations gurus come up with on this one, since after all the current Russian-Ukrainian front is something like 1.500 Km long...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

Why did the US block the Poles sending fighter jets to Ukraine, but not Czechia or Macedonia?

[NOVA Green]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

Why did the US block the Poles sending fighter jets to Ukraine, but not Czechia or Macedonia?

Do we really *know* that US blocked Fighter Jet transfers to Ukraine?

US and UK have generally been very transparent regarding military assistance to Ukraine.

Seem to recall a couple months back in the war, regarding Polish Jets, reality is that NATO provided tons of "Spare Parts" to the cause, since apparently was suffering from a deficit of skilled jet-fighter pilots.

It's really easy to dump a ton of $$$ for military hardware, but reality is that it takes quite a bit of time to train a "new pilot". especially if they are using different hardware from the usual Russian based systems.

Sometimes folx on Atlas think there is a limitless supply of skilled military forces for either side, like it's some kind of computer wargame.

Regardless, not surprised to see Macedonia contribute the cause...

Imagine Albania is holding onto all of the stocks from their bunkers, especially since Serbia is looking for a decent chance to "Reoccupy", while Europe, America, and NATO are a bit distracted on multiple items.
Hostage d
We haven't yet really seen what the "Chinese Military Exercises" around Taiwan will look like...

Russia trying to blackmail Europe to freeze during the Winter will likely accelerate over the next month or so, with Italian Elections naturally on the radar of the Kremlin.

At some point this whole Russian-Ukraine scene might end up coming down to a proxy war with basically only the US, UK, Canada, and France providing direct military assistance, as Russia increasingly attempts to hold all of Europe hostage in what might well be s severe Winter Event, as we increasingly experience the volatility of massive climate-change related events.