Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

Good catch!

I will also say on the subject of the Ukrainian Airforce using their fighter jets in a ground-support role, there was an article in either the NYT, WP, or WSJ within the past ~week in their Kherson Province counter offensive... believe something like (4) Ukrainian Fighter jets were referenced while the reporter was embedded with Ukrainian forces near the front lines?

[NOVA Green]

Boom!
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1555288621787275271

This is likely the advantage of a mixture of an either / or / neither combo of three options:

1.) NATO SIGINT Capabilities
2.) Russian Compromised Communication Systems and/or Unencrypted Radio transmissions
3.) Successful Ukrainian drone penetration able to execute the operation.

Watched the video multiple times, but doesn't really look like an IED hit, or small-arms fire.

Artillery generally works much better against fixed targets versus moving targets, although in theory I guess one could preposition the artillery to hit a certain GIS coordinates, and then trigger the artillery to hit once certain software detects motions, once the remote analyst confirms it is a legit target?

Also other traps can be set such as using laser guided trips to trigger either IED or lurking drone munitions to hit an area also under surveillance.

Will be interesting to see what the Geo-Locations gurus come up with on this one, since after all the current Russian-Ukrainian front is something like 1.500 Km long...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

Why did the US block the Poles sending fighter jets to Ukraine, but not Czechia or Macedonia?

[NOVA Green]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

Why did the US block the Poles sending fighter jets to Ukraine, but not Czechia or Macedonia?

Do we really *know* that US blocked Fighter Jet transfers to Ukraine?

US and UK have generally been very transparent regarding military assistance to Ukraine.

Seem to recall a couple months back in the war, regarding Polish Jets, reality is that NATO provided tons of "Spare Parts" to the cause, since apparently was suffering from a deficit of skilled jet-fighter pilots.

It's really easy to dump a ton of $$$ for military hardware, but reality is that it takes quite a bit of time to train a "new pilot". especially if they are using different hardware from the usual Russian based systems.

Sometimes folx on Atlas think there is a limitless supply of skilled military forces for either side, like it's some kind of computer wargame.

Regardless, not surprised to see Macedonia contribute the cause...

Imagine Albania is holding onto all of the stocks from their bunkers, especially since Serbia is looking for a decent chance to "Reoccupy", while Europe, America, and NATO are a bit distracted on multiple items.
Hostage d
We haven't yet really seen what the "Chinese Military Exercises" around Taiwan will look like...

Russia trying to blackmail Europe to freeze during the Winter will likely accelerate over the next month or so, with Italian Elections naturally on the radar of the Kremlin.

At some point this whole Russian-Ukraine scene might end up coming down to a proxy war with basically only the US, UK, Canada, and France providing direct military assistance, as Russia increasingly attempts to hold all of Europe hostage in what might well be s severe Winter Event, as we increasingly experience the volatility of massive climate-change related events.

[Woody]

[Virginiá]

Hey, human wave tactics might still make a comeback in Europe after all

100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0

Up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Vladimir Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine, according to Russian reports.

A leading defence expert in Moscow, reserve colonel Igor Korotchenko, told state TV: “We shouldn’t be shy in accepting the hand extended to us by Kim Jong-un.”

North Korea has made it clear through “diplomatic channels” that as well as providing builders to repair war damage, it is ready to supply a vast fighting force, reported Regnum news agency.

They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.

They will overwhelm Ukraine with requests to defect

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1555346594827993090

[rc18]

LOL

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1555346594827993090

The bit of the video just before this cut,

"What's up martyr?"
"Haha, I'm no martyr..."

Umm, you are now mate.

[Logical]

Of some interest
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1555594205019471872

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Of some interest
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1555594205019471872

The end of privacy via social media has had grim consequences across society, but at least it bodes well for the future war criminals careless enough to let their crimes end up on video. Men like this one may never be truly safe.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

A new report from a local news portal that Macedonia (which presumably delivered all 31 of its tanks to Ukraine) donated all 4 of its retired Su-25 jets (originally bought from Ukraine) to the UkrAF. The Left Party of Macedonia previously claimed in June that these were being overhauled/repaired for delivery’s sake.

https://m.mkd.mk/makedonija/politika/makedonija-i-suhoite-i-gi-podari-na-ukraina

When asked, the Macedonian MOD neither confirmed nor denied, but said they’d bring transparency to the matter in due course.

It is worth mentioning the FoPo piece in July which mentioned Su-25 “in disassembled form” being sent to Ukraine. Bulgaria was widely presumed to be the supplier on Twitter, but their aid has been somewhat constrained by political concerns. Czechia and Macedonia are the only other Su-25 operators in the EU, but their Su-25s have been retired for decades. Macedonia allegedly kept its own close to working order for a while as a reserve and then made attempts to sell them as late as 2018, so theirs were probably in better condition than Czechia’s.

Good catch!

I will also say on the subject of the Ukrainian Airforce using their fighter jets in a ground-support role, there was an article in either the NYT, WP, or WSJ within the past ~week in their Kherson Province counter offensive... believe something like (4) Ukrainian Fighter jets were referenced while the reporter was embedded with Ukrainian forces near the front lines?

A further update on this: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-rumors-spin-around-macedonian-su-25-delivery

The jets were sat in a Macedonian airbase in February and vanished at some point between April and July (inclusive). This doesn't quite confirm the original report to be true, but I'd say it's much more likely than not.

[NOVA Green]

Of some interest
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1555594205019471872

Thanks for posting Logical!

Definitely a gripping read, since as I had previously posted would not watch the original videos which our Ukrainian comrade linked to, simply because I have a difficult time watching live footage of humans committing such actions against other human beings.

It seems pretty clear that bellingcat has done extensive research on this topic, and interestingly enough this article is much more plausible in terms of likely identifying the one individual who committed the most heinous actions, than some of the earlier reporting, which apparently erroneously identified another individual with the same military unit.

Regardless, when it comes to brutal war crimes such as this, it is not just the individual who committed the worst atrocities who is guilty of war crimes.

Other members of the same military unit who were present are also guilty, at minimum by inaction.

Chain of command is guilty for inaction regarding war crimes.

My key takeaway after reading this article, is that it clearly reinforces the narrative where Russian soldiers or "Russian Militias" in Ukraine appear to believe they can operate within a culture of impunity from any real consequences for their behavior.

When contacted directly, the individual claimed the FSB interviewed him and actually provided information which allowed the OSINT team to further narrow down their search!

The sheer fact that Russia has channels which promote videos of murders of Ukraine is also extremely disturbing, although I guess in one sense it does allow war criminals to be more easily identifiable through SM posts, it can also create a culture where various sociopaths try to "out-compete" each other for "trophy scores".

Not all Russian soldiers are war criminals, despite the fact they are fighting for a country which is waging an illegal war of aggression, occupation, where war crimes are committed on a daily basis from long range artillery units destroying civilian populations, etc...

This one disturbing (3) video set is likely just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the extent of the depravity of war crimes committed against Ukrainian POWs and Civilian Populations alike.

It matters not if the individuals in question are "regular" or "irregular" military units, ultimately Russia is directly responsible for all war crimes committed within the territory under their direct military control.

There is no "plausible deniability" here, no obfuscation credible, no lies and distortions available.

Once again Russia by lack of action against a likely war criminal guilty of an act not directly sanctioned by the Kremlin is effectively themselves committing a war crime at the highest level of government by not taking direct action against the entire unit involved, where traditionally leadership should start at the top.

Quite frankly, I'm starting to be pleasantly surprised about how the Ukrainians thread the needle, despite the fact that "Anti-Russian" hatred is starting to increase dramatically in a level which never existed before Feb 2022, considering the long shared mutual history over centuries with all the warts and all.

Still, how to deal with a neighbor where a significant majority of the population appears to continue to support this invasion and aggression, while also recognizing that Russia has become a place where there isn't really any such thing as "freedom" for anybody who disagrees with Putin's programs.

Meanwhile Mr. Putin is continuing his own "Pogrom" in the name of "Denazification", whereas in reality his behavior certainly is more similar to the German National Socialist Party, in terms of "historical grievances", "territorial expansion", while meanwhile consolidating control of all elements, including effectively the last level of "Civil Society" from the post Soviet era.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like there might be something going on around the Russian Occupied Nuclear Power Plant:

Quite possibly a developing story.

Artillery duels around a huge power plant on the Dnipro river raised the risk of an accident, as each side blamed the other for the explosions on Friday. The top Russian and U.S. diplomats said they were ready to discuss a deal to secure the release of the American basketball star Brittney Griner.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/05/world/ukraine-russia-news-war

[NOVA Green]

Should have gone down slightly on my NYT newsfeed prior to posting:

Long Story so don't want to over-quote...

Explosions in and around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power complex at about 2:30 p.m. destroyed electrical transmission lines and posed risks of damaging the plant, forcing engineers to alter the operation of one of its six reactors by reducing power, Ukraine’s state nuclear company, Energoatom, said.

Hours later, a second series of three explosions damaged an auxiliary building near one of the nuclear reactors, raising the risk of hydrogen leaks and fire, the company said. 

For a about a month, Russia has used the site to stage artillery strikes on Ukrainian targets without fear of retaliation, since the Ukrainian military cannot fire back without risk of hitting safety equipment, reactors or storage facilities for spent fuel. Ukrainian officials say the Russians aim to disrupt a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the country’s south.

After the explosions on Friday afternoon severed a high-voltage electrical line, the plant operators reduced output from one of the reactors. Previously, three of the six reactors at the plant were operational, two were on standby and one was undergoing planned repairs.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/05/world/ukraine-russia-news-war

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There's a fair amount of overlap between pro-Russia rhetoric on the Western left now and pro-Japan rhetoric in certain black circles in the 1930s, not that it's in almost anybody's ideological interests right now to admit it. "We will save you from Western imperialism by brutally conquering you ourselves. The only antidote to exploitative and violent colonization by the Western democracies is VERY exploitative and VERY violent colonization by us instead. Try not to pay too much attention to the fact that a disproportionate amount of our military behaves like a racist Yellow Peril caricature of itself, especially towards women." The whole nine yards.

[Torie]

Just in case you missed it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/05/putin-erdogan-meet-secretive-talks-sochi-russia-turkey-ukraine

[NOVA Green]

The life expectancy of a senior VDV officer in Ukraine appears to be fairly short...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1555999540704153601?s=20&t=LJB4b68DVgkEmZ...

[NOVA Green]

Very good detailed read on the Russian filitration camps in Ukraine and Russian forced deportation of Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1555636525718708224?s=20&t=LJB4b68DVgkEm...

You can either click on the link in the tweet, or access directly at the following URL

https://www.info-res.org/post/deported-civilians-how-civilians-are-illegally-deported-to-russia

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ukraine has confirmed Macedonia "offered support...in the form of aircraft" (i.e. sent Su-25 jets): https://news.yahoo.com/presidents-office-confirms-north-macedonia-143912619.html

Given that it was already probable the original story was true, I considered not posting this third update, but I think it's notable if a country is willing to let Ukraine reveal this (it's also notable if Ukraine is admitting this against the will of North Macedonia, which previously provided no comment on the delivery of aircraft - but this scenario is less likely). It provides some cover for other states to do the same without worrying about being the first to put their heads over the parapet, although aircraft are usually considerably trickier to part with than tanks even when it comes to platforms the Ukrainians have already trained on.

[NOVA Green]

Read from the WP on how the Javelin's, or "Javelina's" are still killing Russian tanks, despite to what on many parts of the front has turned into more of an artillery war.

Lt. Col. Bohdan Dmytruk is another fan of the anti-armor system. A battalion commander in Ukraine’s 93rd brigade, Dmytruk said he’s seen a decline in the quality of tanks Russians are using on the front lines. He has an intimate understanding of his enemy — his battalion was fighting the same Russian brigade in the Sumy region, farther north, earlier in the war, and they are now facing off again in the Kharkiv region.

In Sumy, the 93rd brigade was victorious, expelling Russian forces from the region. In the more than three months that they’ve been posted near Izyum, the front line hasn’t budged much, though Dmytruk said his unit advanced about 5 miles along one part of it during that time. The road to Ukraine’s current trench positions is littered with destroyed Russian vehicles and rotting soldiers’ corpses. The grain fields here have been burned and filled with craters from artillery shells ― sunflowers tend to sprout around their edges.

The tanks the Russians are using now are older, Dmytruk said, because Javelins and similar weapons have depleted their arsenal. Even the crews operating the tanks now are less experienced, often not even managing to fire on Dmytruk’s forces before they’re taken out, he said, because they didn’t properly load the ammunition.

“The Ukrainian military basically destroyed their newest tanks and infantry combat vehicles in the first wave of fighting,” Dmytruk said. “The last vehicle of theirs we damaged just a couple days ago was a BMP-1, which is one of their oldest models. They would’ve had that one sitting in storage for a long time, so they’re really emptying out their stocks right now.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/05/ukraine-war-javelins-russia-tanks/

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1555971120045690888?s=20&t=ACb-TI...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1555965045040992256?s=20&t=ACb-TI...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1555971120045690888?s=20&t=ACb-TI...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1555965045040992256?s=20&t=ACb-TI...

RIP comrade Vitaly Guru.   

Pretty clear partisan and guerilla warfare will continue within Kherson Province, no matter how many decades Russia attempts to maintain control, assuming they aren't forced out sooner rather than later.

Interestingly enough, he must have been shot at close range, considering the Makarov is basically a 9 mm semi-automatic.

This naturally begs the question as to *how* this might have occurred?

Naturally my initial assumption would be that this was likely a military operation carried out by Ukrainian partisans or security service agents, considering it has a population of 45k and located relatively close to the front-lines.

My understanding from what I have read is that Ukrainian partisan forces still operate using the traditional (3-4) person cell operations from WW II days, but do we really know that it was even the Ukrainian Gvt who carried out the assassination?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Nova_Kakhovka

The case of Mr. Vladimir Saldo, perhaps raises even more questions when it comes to the origins of these matters.

Various Russian intelligence agencies are traditionally the ones who use toxic poisoning type stuff as a routine manner of eliminating political opponents of the regime, whereas Ukraine has been a victim of such activities.

We are not talking about stories such as the "elderly Babushka who offered Russian conscripts poison pies", early on in the Russian Invasion / Occupation of 2022, but rather a targeted assassination attempt.

Scratching my head to unravel, and quite frankly and honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Russia take out their own "Ukrainian Allies", but if not this is clear a series of massive "spectacular" targeted assassinations from Ukrainian Partisans from behind enemy lines, prior to the much rumored Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson Obl....

[NOVA Green]

So meanwhile, Russian domestic propaganda has gotten to the point, that apparently they are creating new "Light Shows" for their Black Sea Naval Fleet...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1555593689354932226?s=20&t=vjZbMlJoq...

[NOVA Green]

Really good thread from Mike Ryan here regarding the changing military dynamics currently during the 2022 Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1556092549474820097?s=20&t=vjZbMlJ...

[Woody]