Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-scores-russians-killed-kherson-fighting-2022-07-30/

"Zelenskiy announces mandatory evacuation of Ukraine's Donetsk region"

I guess the Ukrainian side feels that the Donetsk front might fall apart over the coming weeks.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1553718271345664003

The "evidence" is that certain anti-anti-war-crimes posters on s certain secular blog known to us all have kept insisting that it's the case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russian POWs in Ukrainian custody should hope nothing Geneva Conventions-violating happens to them.
Historically, things of this caliber being done by the enemy has not infrequently been met with a likewise response in turn.
It is not clear precisely why it happened (I personally lean towards Wagner doing this on its own initiative, at this moment).
Wagner Group seems at least a bit more ghoulish than the average PMC group. I remember there were news from Mali some months ago where Wagner was found burying bodies in the sand (all while making it look like the French did it).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Russian POWs in Ukrainian custody should hope nothing Geneva Conventions-violating happens to them.
Historically, things of this caliber being done by the enemy has not infrequently been met with a likewise response in turn.
It is not clear precisely why it happened (I personally lean towards Wagner doing this on its own initiative, at this moment).
Wagner Group seems at least a bit more ghoulish than the average PMC group. I remember there were news from Mali some months ago where Wagner was found burying bodies in the sand (all while making it look like the French did it).

Absolutely. They have basically the same ideology people were (reasonably) uncomfortable with the lionization of the Azovstal defenders over, plus the brutality we see with other Russian auxiliaries like the Kadyrovites.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russian POWs in Ukrainian custody should hope nothing Geneva Conventions-violating happens to them.
Historically, things of this caliber being done by the enemy has not infrequently been met with a likewise response in turn.
It is not clear precisely why it happened (I personally lean towards Wagner doing this on its own initiative, at this moment).
Wagner Group seems at least a bit more ghoulish than the average PMC group. I remember there were news from Mali some months ago where Wagner was found burying bodies in the sand (all while making it look like the French did it).

Absolutely. They have basically the same ideology people were (reasonably) uncomfortable with the lionization of the Azovstal defenders over, plus the brutality we see with other Russian auxiliaries like the Kadyrovites.

It's fair to say that if Russia has Wagner, then Ukraine can have the Azov Regiment. And anyone from the Azov regiment that has died is a martyr for Ukraine. A lot of martyrs are being made in this war. This is not withstanding any (well-reasoned) objections people have to their ideology (to the extent that Wagner has a uniform ideology - it doesn't necessarily do, but it doesn't seem like Azov does either).

Both sides have proxies and elements that have piece-of-work characteristics and there isn't some ideological litmus test that either side would be inclined to put up. That's just reality, no matter how much Russian media talks about Azov. Russia wants to have its cake and eat it too, but under any fair standard, they have no real right to.

To Zelensky's credit, he has shown considerable willingness to restrain the nasties on his side, and he deserves to be lauded for it.

I recall the Russians punishing one soldier who raped a woman and bragged about it on social media, but it's obviously clear they don't care about being civilized as much. And in a war like this, that could cost them pretty significantly.

[bilaps]

This is the kind of propaganda that viewers in USA are subjected daily. Really no difference between this and Russia's propaganda. In first two sentences it says Ukraine's massive offensive in Kherson is underway which is a blatant lie and then that Russia's forces outnumber Ukrainian forces 10 to 1. That's even worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmIyyYa1skA&t

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the kind of propaganda that viewers in USA are subjected daily. Really no difference between this and Russia's propaganda. In first two sentences it says Ukraine's massive offensive in Kherson is underway which is a blatant lie and then that Russia's forces outnumber Ukrainian forces 10 to 1. That's even worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmIyyYa1skA&t=82s

Some of those numbers sound ludicrous. If Ukraine was outnumbered 10 to 1, it would have little chance of being able to win this thing.
What source could that 10 to 1 figure come from?
P.S. You should have just linked the video without specifying a time stamp. It was a bit confusing to see the video link and then he's not talking about Kherson.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think weasel conjunctions like "up to" are often used in this context, which reveals enough in itself.

[bilaps]

This is the kind of propaganda that viewers in USA are subjected daily. Really no difference between this and Russia's propaganda. In first two sentences it says Ukraine's massive offensive in Kherson is underway which is a blatant lie and then that Russia's forces outnumber Ukrainian forces 10 to 1. That's even worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmIyyYa1skA&t=82s

Some of those numbers sound ludicrous. If Ukraine was outnumbered 10 to 1, it would have little chance of being able to win this thing.
What source could that 10 to 1 figure come from?
P.S. You should have just linked the video without specifying a time stamp. It was a bit confusing to see the video link and then he's not talking about Kherson.

Yes, changed it.

I think he talks about supposed strength of entire military which is useless and even those numbers are inflated. But in this context, just plain propaganda.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In time to stop widespread famine? At the very least, this could become a huge boon for the Ukrainian economy.

https://www.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1553999201956204544

[CumbrianLefty]

And its hard not to see Russia allowing this as a concession.

(even if they will spin it as their "generosity")

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And its hard not to see Russia allowing this as a concession.

(even if they will spin it as their "generosity")

I would also lean towards this being a political concession, although military reluctance or incompetence can’t be completely ruled out as contributing factors.

The main question is - a concession to who? I suspect it’s not a concession to Ukraine, but to countries which rely on its grain. Starving parts of the developing world wasn’t stopping Western support for Ukraine, so the principal international result was causing suffering in countries with which Russia would like to retain relations. Perhaps the African Union had enough leverage here.

There was speculation that certain European sanctions were relaxed or slowed down in exchange for this, but the cynic in me suggests that was going to happen anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There was speculation that certain European sanctions were relaxed or slowed down in exchange for this, but the cynic in me suggests that was going to happen anyway.

That's not something you can do under the table though? The EU is famously bureaucratic, so any decision it makes will involve dozens of actors and have an enormous paper trail.

[Torie]

Perhaps this Russian "concession" was to forestall NATO establishing a formal convoy system to open up the Black Sea to transport.

[Person Man]

Russian POWs in Ukrainian custody should hope nothing Geneva Conventions-violating happens to them.
Historically, things of this caliber being done by the enemy has not infrequently been met with a likewise response in turn.
It is not clear precisely why it happened (I personally lean towards Wagner doing this on its own initiative, at this moment).
Wagner Group seems at least a bit more ghoulish than the average PMC group. I remember there were news from Mali some months ago where Wagner was found burying bodies in the sand (all while making it look like the French did it).

Wagner people aren’t mercenaries. They’re serial killers. Basically Jeffrey Dahlmer with guns.

[Alben Barkley]

Putin's lost the use of his right arm:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-caught-on-camera-unable-to-use-right-arm/ar-AA10ajzZ?

Didn't something similar happen to Hitler in his last days?

[President Johnson]

So Russia demands the release of a convicted murderer from Germany (!) in exchange for releasing American basketball player Brittney Griner, who's imprisoned in Russia without any valid justification. Just a reminder that Vadim Krasikov openly shot a Putin opponent on the street in Berlin (at daylight). He was found guilty of murder by a German court. The judge also found that he acted at the direction of Russian authorities. Beyond disgusting and also a blatant attempt to divide the US and Europe. The US State Department already rejected this, saying it was not a serious offer.

https://twitter.com/PaulaChertok/status/1553099676638797824

[Person Man]

Putin's lost the use of his right arm:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-caught-on-camera-unable-to-use-right-arm/ar-AA10ajzZ?

Didn't something similar happen to Hitler in his last days?

People have said that he is Parkinsonian.

[Alben Barkley]

Putin's lost the use of his right arm:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-caught-on-camera-unable-to-use-right-arm/ar-AA10ajzZ?

Didn't something similar happen to Hitler in his last days?

People have said that he is Parkinsonian.

That's what they said about Hitler too... The more things change...

[Mr. Smith]

Putin's lost the use of his right arm:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-caught-on-camera-unable-to-use-right-arm/ar-AA10ajzZ?

Didn't something similar happen to Hitler in his last days?

People have said that he is Parkinsonian.

He moved his right arm just fine a few seconds later.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1554122972935372804?s=20&t=20sDubs...

[Storr]

[tweet snip]


I will use any excuse to share this wonderful gem:

A parade BTR captured:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1553999985288642561?s=20&t=20sDubsS7dqI...

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/333f7447-aed8-40d2-87e9-f8d289162707

"West eases efforts to restrict Russian oil trading as inflation and energy risks mount"

Plans to keep Russian oil tankers out of the tanker insurance market are delayed.   Clearly, this is driven by concern that the removal of Russian oil from the oil market will lead to another oil price surge.

[NOVA Green]

US announced another $550 Million arms package to Ukraine today... looks to be mostly ammo:

The arms transfer will include ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, rocket launchers that have been used to destroy Russian command posts and ammunition depots as well as for 155-millimeter howitzers already in use by Ukrainian troops, Mr. Kirby said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/world/us-ukraine-weapons-military-aid.html

Germany apparently just delivered some additional weapons systems:

Ukraine on Monday confirmed the delivery of precision multiple-launch rocket systems from Germany, bolstering a growing arsenal that has been credited with destroying dozens of strategically important Russian targets. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht recently said that an initial delivery of German Gepard antiaircraft weapons has arrived in Ukraine and that Germany is sending more self-propelled howitzers than initially planned. Several German IRIS-T air defense systems are also slated for delivery in the autumn.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[Storr]

The two ships being transferred to the Ukrainian Navy are HMS Ramsey and HMS Blyth. They are Sandown-class minehunters, commissioned in 2000 and 2001 respectively. That means they are newer than any minesweepers the US Navy could give. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1554255665010544642?s=20&t=touH6L...