Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

If that's his modus operandi, a commitment about not sending e.g. small arms can't be relied on by Russia for long, because arranging the delivery of, logistics for and training on small arms is a quick process.

The issue with having this kind of stance on jets is that it gives Russia months - possibly years - of breathing room, depending on how long it takes to make newer jets work for Ukraine. Unless "we won't supply jets" does not preclude training Ukrainians on jets in the meantime, Macron changing his mind will be followed by the non-trivial delay in getting the jets ready. In the interim (in or before which the Ukrainian Air Force might be heading towards total collapse), there are fewer and fewer Soviet/Russian jet/AA platforms Ukraine can be supplied with.

It was bad enough with the MiG-29s that Ukraine already knows how to use, and I hope (but don't expect) that leaders learnt from this.

That's fair, but frankly, I think the underlying fact here is that Macron isn't the one who ultimately makes this decision - it will probably be Biden in concert with the Eastern European countries that are actually needed for the logistics of the transfer. Of course, Biden himself isn't free from waffling and being unconscionably timid about imagined risks of "escalation". But I'd pay more attention to what he, Austin, Sullivan etc. are saying than Macron.

[CumbrianLefty]

Really, that Macron is trying to have his Ukrainian cake and eat it isn't the most surprising thing is it?

[DINGO Joe]

Hard to keep up with and sort out (I was hoping Storr had been looking into it all), but the Girkin feed has video of numerous targets in the LNR and DNR hit or on massive fire.  Including a military registration office in Sobinov, Dominek Hotel in Donetsk (which he says is favorite of Russian officers), an ammo depot in Krasny Luch (Red Beam), and a military base in the Kievsky district in Donetsk. 

Lots of video.  All well behind the lines. 

[Logical]

Hard to keep up with and sort out (I was hoping Storr had been looking into it all), but the Girkin feed has video of numerous targets in the LNR and DNR hit or on massive fire.  Including a military registration office in Sobinov, Dominek Hotel in Donetsk (which he says is favorite of Russian officers), an ammo depot in Krasny Luch (Red Beam), and a military base in the Kievsky district in Donetsk. 

Lots of video.  All well behind the lines. 

Most of them are Tochka strikes. I believe Ukrainians are more willing to utilize their long range missile stockpile now since the HIMARS will be arriving very soon.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hard to keep up with and sort out (I was hoping Storr had been looking into it all), but the Girkin feed has video of numerous targets in the LNR and DNR hit or on massive fire.  Including a military registration office in Sobinov, Dominek Hotel in Donetsk (which he says is favorite of Russian officers), an ammo depot in Krasny Luch (Red Beam), and a military base in the Kievsky district in Donetsk. 

Lots of video.  All well behind the lines. 

Most of them are Tochka strikes. I believe Ukrainians are more willing to utilize their long range missile stockpile now since the HIMARS will be arriving very soon.

Hitting logistics like this may be the primary role of the new guided MLRS given the small quantities it will arrive in and the vast number of artillery guns Russia has. They will probably run out of shells before they run out of guns, so if a war of attrition must be fought, successfully targeting the shells might end it faster.

In general, logistics seems to be a weak point for the Russian army. The situation is much easier for them than it was in phase 1 because their advances are slow, not far from Russia and currently pushing into a salient which is hard to defend, but they still make errors like building large ammunition depots and then leaving them poorly defended. Drones and foreign intelligence gathered from satellites probably help Ukraine locate these, but I wonder how much is down to local partisans reporting things to Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sanctions-hit-kremlin-stage-annual-russian-davos-bereft-financial-elite-2022-06-14/

"Sanctions-hit Kremlin stages 'Russian Davos' bereft of elite, Putin speaks Friday"

An example of spinning just going to far

This week, to make up for the lack of major Western attendees, Russia is giving pride of place to smaller players or countries like China - the world's second largest economy - that have not joined in sanctions.

I think it is reasonable to point out that the collective West has boycotted the annual economic forum in St Petersburg and that this must be something that must displeases Putin.  But it is another thing to say that the PRC is "a smaller player" just to try to highlight that Putin is totally isolated when he clearly is not.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-16/europe-risks-zero-gas-stockpiles-by-january-if-nord-stream-shuts

"Europe Risks Running Out of Gas Mid-Winter If Nord Stream Shuts"

Gas flows from Russia to Europe has dropped a lot recently due to problems on Nord Stream 1. 

It seems to fix this will require Canada to break its sanction on Russia

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-reports-talks-with-germany-siemens-made-nord-stream-1-equipment-2022-06-16/

"Canada reports talks with Germany on Siemens-made Nord Stream 1 equipment"

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-vigilantes-boj-are-breaking-japans-bond-market-2022-06-16/

"Analysis: Bond vigilantes and the BOJ are breaking Japan's bond market"

So far the focus on Russian sanction blowback has been in EU and partly USA.  But now the blowback is beginning to hit Japan.

Rising interest rates in the collective West has put pressure on BOJ to raise rates as well.  The main problem there is the BOJ feel that Japan's domestic economy is too fragile to raise rates.  There is also the issue of raising interest payments on the Japanese public debt which amounts to 270% of GDP although most of this debt has been monetized by the BOJ.  But not raising rates means JPY will weaken and imported inflation has started and will continue to hit Japan.  There is also the specter of the "Mr and Mrs Watanabe trade" where Japanese retail investors will borrow in JPY and buy higher yielding USA debt which will put more pressure on JPY and reward these same retail investors with gains in JPY terms. 

For now the impact is limited but over the next few months, Kishida, the hero of March 2022 for his hardline position on Russia will need to put pressure on USA EU and Ukraine to end the war to try to slow down the global inflation surge.  Big financial collapses tend to go on slowly but then quickly.  Kishida must be concerned that with the Japanese public debt at 270% of GDP Japan might be entering into the "slowly" phase and he has to stop if before it goes into the "quickly" phase.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1537830039273803777

[Torie]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

Will not the French press hound Macron to define precisely what he means when he says that France will "guarantee" Ukraine's security (presumably in exchange for conceding more real estate to Russia)? I mean guarantee is a French word that the Normans imported into English, so I don't think we have a translation problem here. Guarantee means you put up all your assets to back up preserving Ukraine's security. That means if Russia goes into Ukraine for more, then France goes in with troops and weapons. If Russia rattles its nukes, France rattles theirs. And if France defaults and breaches the guarantee contract, what is Ukraine's remedy? Can it  seize France's nukes, the Eiffel Tower, the contents of the Louvre, what?

How can I arrange to ask Macron all of these interesting questions myself? I want him.

How aggressive is the French press? Does Macron give press conferences?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1537830039273803777

It could prove consequential if other armies follow suit, although the value of training is somewhat limited by the volatility of the Ukrainian Army (casualties, the eclectic and shifting mix of equipment used, objectives, etc.).

In a war of attrition, the limitless reserve of British government scandals is proving to be a reliable boon for Ukraine.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

Will not the French press hound Macron to define precisely what he means when he says that France will "guarantee" Ukraine's security (presumably in exchange for conceding more real estate to Russia)? I mean guarantee is a French word that the Normans imported into English, so I don't think we have a translation problem here. Guarantee means you put up all your assets to back up preserving Ukraine's security. That means if Russia goes into Ukraine for more, then France goes in with troops and weapons. If Russia rattles its nukes, France rattles theirs. And if France defaults and breaches the guarantee contract, what is Ukraine's remedy? Can it  seize France's nukes, the Eiffel Tower, the contents of the Louvre, what?

How can I arrange to ask Macron all of these interesting questions myself? I want him.

How aggressive is the French press? Does Macron give press conferences?

I wish you luck. Alas, this government is an expert in not answering questions. We're talking about a president who managed to get reelected without a second term agenda.

[jaichind]

https://www.thelocal.de/20220616/german-energy-crisis-call-for-reduction-in-minimum-temperatures-for-tenants/

"German energy crisis: Call for reduction in minimum temperatures for tenants"

Given the large number of people that rent in Germany, this will be significant. 

Of course, Putin tried to warn them in 2010

https://www.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53174220101126

“I don’t understand; how will you heat your houses? You do not want gas, you do not want to develop nuclear energy. Where will you get your heat from then? From firewood?”
“But even for firewood you will need to go to Siberia, you do not even have wood,” Putin said.

I think Putin still has a lot of firewood in Siberia he can sell to Germany.

[Person Man]

https://www.thelocal.de/20220616/german-energy-crisis-call-for-reduction-in-minimum-temperatures-for-tenants/

"German energy crisis: Call for reduction in minimum temperatures for tenants"

Given the large number of people that rent in Germany, this will be significant. 

Of course, Putin tried to warn them in 2010

https://www.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53174220101126

“I don’t understand; how will you heat your houses? You do not want gas, you do not want to develop nuclear energy. Where will you get your heat from then? From firewood?”
“But even for firewood you will need to go to Siberia, you do not even have wood,” Putin said.

I think Putin still has a lot of firewood in Siberia he can sell to Germany.

They really shot themselves in the foot with denuclearization. France and Japan probably weather this situation far better than Italy or Germany.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1537894024626905094

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995775703060481

[NOVA Green]

Another ship claimed to have been sunk, this time a rescue tug said to be carrying a Tor SAM system to Snake Island. This has been reported by the Ukrainian Navy so hopefully it is correct.

https://twitter.com/UA_NAVY/status/1537682084088651776?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRFrc...

The Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck another "no analogues" - a tug with SAM "TOR" on board

The tugboat of the Black Sea Fleet "Vasiliy Bekh" was hit in the Black Sea during the transportation of ammunition, weapons and personnel of the Black Sea Fleet to Snake Island.

And the video of the strike from a TB2. Seems the TB2 may have been just spotting and the weapons used are anti-ship missiles.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537696927827079170?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRF...

Odessan local government is claiming this was the work of a Harpoon missile, but the (abbreviated) training wasn't supposed to be finished for a few days yet and I've seen some claims to the contrary.

Given the short range of other anti-ship missiles in Ukraine, the only other plausible answers are a ship-launched missile (very risky given the size and vulnerability of the Ukrainian fleet) or a Neptune missile. It is quite plausible the imminent entry of Harpoons into Ukrainian service made Ukraine feel more comfortable about using its limited stock of Neptunes.

Striking resupply vehicles like this might be the best way to solve Ukraine's Snake Island problems. It allows them to avoid wasting guided land-attack rockets on the island that could be used in the Donbas while still making the occupation painful and potentially untenable.

My buddy Sutton has a few takes on the recent Snake Island activities...

https://[tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/153791505701464473...[/tweet][/tweet]

Link to his article about why this would be considered a High Valued Target (HVT) from a Ukrainian military perspective...

The ship is a described as a rescue ship. It's expected role involves towing ships in distress, fire fighting, water pumping and electricity supply. In medical emergencies it can evacuate crew and provide some medical support. It can conduct diving works down to 60m for rescue and underwater inspection.

Despite the seemingly pedestrian label, ‘Rescue Tugs’, are valid military targets. And can be important targets. These are utility ships and in the context of Snake Island, are used for critical resupply. They have been used to bring air defense systems to the island.
There are unconfirmed reports that SB-739 had an SA-15 GAUNTLET (Tor) system aboard. This may have been for supply, or self-defense. It has become common for Russia to place ground based air-defense systems, Tor and Panistir, on ships without built-in defenses.

Since the SLAVA Class cruiser Moskva was sunk on April-13/14, it has also needed to provide local air defense. But the Tor and possibly Pantsir missile complexes there are very short ranged, not comparable to the S-300F Rif (SA-N-6 GRUMBLE) aboard Moskva.

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Vasily-Bekh-attack.html

[NOVA Green]

Here's another recent coverage regarding Snake Island...

Russian military try to hide their vehicles from the "Eyes in the Sky".

https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1537754346552807424?s=20&t=9aVMU_3XcdnC6A...

[DINGO Joe]

Now anyone can be an "elite" Russian soldier in only three weeks!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537504376604004352

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Now anyone can be an "elite" Russian soldier in only three weeks!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537504376604004352

It’s bad, but that unit is the elite of the National Guard, not spetznaz.

[Annatar]

Now anyone can be an "elite" Russian soldier in only three weeks!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537504376604004352

Rob Lee is just straight up misrepresenting the post, he's basically lying here, if you google translate it says at the beginning veterans have requested for this so 3 month contracts have been approved, those who want to sign up have to go through a selection committee first and then they do their 3 weeks of training, for veterans 3 weeks as a refresher course might be enough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Russia has probably already lost the war in the sense that it is unlikely to have the combat power to achieve most of its significant goals, but Ukraine is also losing it because they are stuck in a horrible war of attrition which has a far greater impact on their civilian population than Russia’s and face the prospect of being unable to retake most of the land that Russia still occupies.

Russia grinding itself into exhaustion would not actually be a good thing or the ideal way for Ukraine to achieve “victory”; if Russia has to exhaust its entire artillery ammunition to lose, a lot more of Ukraine is going to be destroyed.

Yes, in a Clausewitzian sense, Russia has already lost: if war is the extension of policy by other means (and it is), then it's hard not to notice that there is now no plausible outcome to the war that would have been regarded as a success by the Russian government at its onset. Savage damage has also been done to the prestige of the Russian military and to the ability of the Russian state to throw its weight around. But that doesn't mean that it can't gnaw and nibble away at Ukraine's (depopulated and now economically worthless) marches and borderlands as a means of saving a small amount of face. Equally, while Ukraine has already won in the fundamental sense that there will still be an independent polity called Ukraine, the damage done to the place has been immense and there's no guarantee that it will be able to regain control of those devastated marches and borderlands any time soon: especially as aiding them to do so is not quite as much of a moral and strategic imperative to Western governments as preventing the conquest of the entire country was.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995775703060481

So many places taken on this twitter offensive, yet no single proof or video from inside those settlements.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995775703060481

But.....but we were just told on here the Kherson offensive doesn't exist!

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995775703060481

So many places taken on this twitter offensive, yet no single proof or video from inside those settlements.

What went wrong that lead you to rooting on a country that is rounding up civilians and shooting them in the back of the head?

Edit: oh btw
https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995782745272321