Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

Seems retaliations are starting

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1511236292310413312

[Torie]

To make some unfounded speculation, does anybody else think part of the reason for the war crimes is to provoke Ukrainian war crimes and scare Russian soldiers away from surrendering, along with making as many officers as possible complicit thereby tying them further to Putin? Or is the Russian army really that bad?

My uninformed speculation from just reading the news every day, is that the command and control mechanisms of the Russian army are "that bad." So some of its troops punch holes in the gas tank, or dessert or surrender at the first opportunity, and some commit war crimes, and some loot for resale of stolen goods.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean, this was the fundamental reason the Catholic and Orthodox churches separated in the first place: The Byzantine (Roman) Emperors thought they should have control over the church, and the Popes thought they should have control over the church. There were other doctrinal reasons of course that made the split more theological nominally, but in practice the real dispute was whether the Emperor (through appointment of religious officials) or the Pope (independently) was the supreme religious power in Christianity. So it should be hardly surprising that Orthodox churches today remain highly reliant on secular power, even though there are no more Roman emperors to claim legitimacy over the church. It's pretty unfair to say that the entire branch of Orthodoxy is invalid, though. It's just a different model of Christianity.

And it needs to be noted that the undeniably odious Kirill, specifically, is an extremely compromised (and ultimately rather pathetic) figure: it isn't clear if he is still an agent of the security services, but he was under the Ancien Regime and it is also well known that he is quite personally corrupt. As such he will generally do what he is told. People need to take care not to fall into old tropes and clichés out of habit and a tendency to dislike Orthodoxy because it is so obviously alien to the Western Christian tradition. Putin's regime has co-opted the Church and its compromised leadership for its own ends,* but Orthodoxy is not the reason why any of this is happening: the city of Kiev is as important to the branches of Orthodoxy that date back to the days of the Rus as Rome is to Catholicism and yet was recently subjected to heavy, indiscriminate artillery bombardment.

_{*Largely because much as traditional English patriotic sentiment is impossible to entirely disentangle from Protestantism, traditional Russian patriotic sentiment is impossible to entirely disentangle from Orthodoxy. Which is why even Stalin used it during the Second World War.}

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seems retaliations are starting

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1511236292310413312

Almost impossible to prevent in the long term (especially after Bucha), but Ukraine just work overtime to keep these incidents isolated so that surrenders are not discouraged. Pointing out that Russian soldiers are also human probably isn’t going to work anymore, so the military value of POWs should be promoted.

The best use of POWs is in a post-war exchange for kidnapped Ukrainians in Sakhalin, but announcing this to discourage executions could incentivise more kidnappings in Russian-held territories.

[Beet]

The "fall of Ukraine" looks nowhere within the sight of a high-powered telescope at this point.

Unfortunately the Ukrainians may also be committing war crimes:

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1511230275077894146?s=20&t=ai95Wd1njyM...

[Omega21]

The "fall of Ukraine" looks nowhere within the sight of a high-powered telescope at this point.

Unfortunately the Ukrainians may also be committing war crimes:

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1511229854913495042?s=20&t=ai95Wd1njyM...

Also provides Mr. Putin with some great material to muster up support and make sure his soldiers don't even think about giving up.

I assume most of this is being done by the relatively small group of diehard Banderovites/neo Nazis, so, unfortunately, I don't think Ukraine can do much to talk sense into them.

[Logical]

New strategy by the Russians. Instead of waiting for the mass graves to be found, they are going to come out and admit that they killed civilians by accusing them of being deserters. I'm pretty sure deserters are protected in the laws of war though.
93 "deserters" have been "liquidated".
https://russian.rt.com/ussr/news/978134-mariupol-likvidaciya-dezertiry
https://twitter.com/antonphd/status/1511087133242630161

[Sir Mohamed]

This is genocide, and anyone pretending otherwise is an ignorant hack to say at least. So much for "denazifaction."

Unfortunately, this kind of stuff seems to be quite common from Russian forces for a very long time. Let's not forget the red army committed terrible crimes in WWII already, and not just against German civilians, but also against Polish civilians and others. As much wrong was done to them by the Nazis, still doesn't justify rape and murder against civilians. Two wrongs don't make a right. In WWII, I'm just aware of few cases of such cruelty from American and British troops, and where they happened, the offenders were put on military trial.

Putler, his soldiers and generals need to be put on trial. It's for sure wishful thinking, but I'd like to see an international arrest warrant issued for him.

[It’s so Joever]

The Russians appear to be attempting an attack from the sides on the Donbas front and flank the Ukrainians in the area.

[GoTfan]

This is genocide, and anyone pretending otherwise is an ignorant hack to say at least. So much for "denazifaction."

Unfortunately, this kind of stuff seems to be quite common from Russian forces for a very long time. Let's not forget the red army committed terrible crimes in WWII already, and not just against German civilians, but also against Polish civilians and others. As much wrong was done to them by the Nazis, still doesn't justify rape and murder against civilians. Two wrongs don't make a right. In WWII, I'm just aware of few cases of such cruelty from American and British troops, and where they happened, the offenders were put on military trial.

Putler, his soldiers and generals need to be put on trial. It's for sure wishful thinking, but I'd like to see an international arrest warrant issued for him.

A somewhat different situation existed in WW2. Slavs as a whole were considered sub-human by the Nazis. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians are considered sub-human by the Russians, but we can't be sure.

And personally, if you're willing to invade a country and commit war crimes, dont be f(inks)ing surprised when the other side responds in kind. I mean, there was one instance where the Soviets found the bodies of children literally bled dry to provide transfusions for SS officers. How are yu going to respond to that if you see that done to your countrymen?

[Omega21]

Poland hitting back at Germany, claiming it is Germany who is stopping new sanctions & that Hungary is onboard.

Germany is the main roadblock to imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday during a news conference, adding that Hungary was not blocking them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-main-roadblock-tougher-russian-sanctions-polands-pm-says-2022-04-04/

[Storr]

The "fall of Ukraine" looks nowhere within the sight of a high-powered telescope at this point.

Unfortunately the Ukrainians may also be committing war crimes:

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1511229854913495042?s=20&t=ai95Wd1njyM...

Also provides Mr. Putin with some great material to muster up support and make sure his soldiers don't even think about giving up.

I assume most of this is being done by the relatively small group of diehard Banderovites/neo Nazis, so, unfortunately, I don't think Ukraine can do much to talk sense into them.

The transfer of Czech T-72M1 tanks has been confirmed:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511337128831197199?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...

[Torie]

Poland hitting back at Germany, claiming it is Germany who is stopping new sanctions & that Hungary is onboard.

Germany is the main roadblock to imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday during a news conference, adding that Hungary was not blocking them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-main-roadblock-tougher-russian-sanctions-polands-pm-says-2022-04-04/

Citation needed.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The "fall of Ukraine" looks nowhere within the sight of a high-powered telescope at this point.

Unfortunately the Ukrainians may also be committing war crimes:

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1511229854913495042?s=20&t=ai95Wd1njyM...

Also provides Mr. Putin with some great material to muster up support and make sure his soldiers don't even think about giving up.

I assume most of this is being done by the relatively small group of diehard Banderovites/neo Nazis, so, unfortunately, I don't think Ukraine can do much to talk sense into them.

The transfer of Czech T-72M1 tanks has been confirmed:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511337128831197199?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...

The WSJ also reports that an unspecified number of howitzers and an unspecified number BMP-1s (not part of the 56 being prepared by a company) have arrived so far.

The Czech government confirmed these deliveries after they were spotted but says it wants to keep specifics of other deliveries as secret as possible.

Idnez, one of the largest news sites in Czechia, has more details. I’m not sure how credible they are as they extrapolated a Polish rumour about British weapons into a statement by our MoD that doesn’t exist, but they probably have better local sources. They claim up to 40 T-72s are being delivered and that - more importantly - Strela-10 SAM systems were to be sent in the last few days. The Strela-10 is a very short-range, mobile, ground-based air defence. It doesn’t have much more altitudinal reach than MANPADS, but it is more effective and probably amongst the most important deliveries Ukraine can receive from its allies.

The WSJ also reports that Slovakia has “no tanks to give” - it does, but they’d need to be replaced with Western models and these would require training - but that it and the Czech Republic, possibly among other Central European countries, is  considering allowing Ukraine to send damaged vehicles to their countries for repair.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1511226848868454404

[CumbrianLefty]

Poland hitting back at Germany, claiming it is Germany who is stopping new sanctions & that Hungary is onboard.

Germany is the main roadblock to imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday during a news conference, adding that Hungary was not blocking them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-main-roadblock-tougher-russian-sanctions-polands-pm-says-2022-04-04/

Citation needed.

Given how Orban openly gloated at Zelensky after his election win, I wouldn't mind a Hungary citation for the above either.

[Storr]

The "fall of Ukraine" looks nowhere within the sight of a high-powered telescope at this point.

Unfortunately the Ukrainians may also be committing war crimes:

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1511229854913495042?s=20&t=ai95Wd1njyM...

Also provides Mr. Putin with some great material to muster up support and make sure his soldiers don't even think about giving up.

I assume most of this is being done by the relatively small group of diehard Banderovites/neo Nazis, so, unfortunately, I don't think Ukraine can do much to talk sense into them.

The transfer of Czech T-72M1 tanks has been confirmed:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511337128831197199?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...

Obviously Orban won't send any tanks, but Hungary does have T-72s

Wikipedia says North Macedonia has 31 T-72As and Bulgaria 160 (+ 250 in storage) T-72M2s (a Bulgarian design).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-72_operators_and_variants#Current_operators

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1510355711418679297?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1510356520390823940?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1510695804750766093

 He is  Rabid nationalist disguised as a Christian. Surely if Jesus's injunction against the wicked using his name in the furtherance of evil is true, then there's a special place in h*** for Kirill.

I have said for years if I'm going back to the Church it's either Catholic or Orthodox cause I frankly think Protestantism makes no sense.

This solidifies Catholicism for me.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1510695804750766093

 He is  Rabid nationalist disguised as a Christian. Surely if Jesus's injunction against the wicked using his name in the furtherance of evil is true, then there's a special place in h*** for Kirill.

I have said for years if I'm going back to the Church it's either Catholic or Orthodox cause I frankly think Protestantism makes no sense.

This solidifies Catholicism for me.

You do know, however, that Greeks & Patriarch of Constantinople are the "fathers" of Orthodoxy, not Russians, right?

Russia has tried to LARP as the 3rd Rome, but it's no more genuine than the HRE.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The "fall of Ukraine" looks nowhere within the sight of a high-powered telescope at this point.

Unfortunately the Ukrainians may also be committing war crimes:

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1511229854913495042?s=20&t=ai95Wd1njyM...

Also provides Mr. Putin with some great material to muster up support and make sure his soldiers don't even think about giving up.

I assume most of this is being done by the relatively small group of diehard Banderovites/neo Nazis, so, unfortunately, I don't think Ukraine can do much to talk sense into them.

The transfer of Czech T-72M1 tanks has been confirmed:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511337128831197199?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...

Obviously Orban won't send any tanks, but Hungary does have T-72s

Wikipedia says North Macedonia has 31 T-72As and Bulgaria 160 (+ 250 in storage) T-72M2s (a Bulgarian design).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-72_operators_and_variants#Current_operators

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1510355711418679297?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1510356520390823940?s=20&t=ZC6iEWf...

There are also some in Romania, in addition to significantly upgraded models in Czechia and successors heavily based on the T-72 in Bosnia, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia. These could have logistical/training issues but they’d probably be a lot easier to integrate than any other systems.

There are likely to be more across the territories of Ukrainian allies that are not being maintained but could be repaired or stripped for parts. There are definitely a few left in working order for testing purposes in states that used to have them or captured some.

Cyprus and South Korea have T-80s, but Cyprus (like Bulgaria and Hungary) probably won’t be persuaded to send anything more than ammunition. If desperate, Ukraine might be able to fall back on the T-54/55 - although it no longer has that tank in service, it has kept upgrading and repairing it for other countries, and presumably has retained some operational experience. There are stocks of T-54/55 variants in Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Finland, Romania and Slovenia.

[Storr]

Shooting down a modern Russian attack helicopter with an anti-tank missile is pretty based.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1511339024761376784?s=20&t=uc5OrwhVhGf...

[Torie]

This idea strikes me as quite clever. Until the time of the Jubiliee, when Russia's fossil fuel income drops to zero, and Putin is rendered homeless panhandling for spare change, another tool to drive it down in the interim is to turn the market into a monopsony buyer as much as possible, by having the EU and friends make purchases through one centralized designated buyer, who uses the most predatory purchasing practices that are possible.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-play-rough-russia-gas-prices/

[Person Man]

This idea strikes me as quite clever. Until the time of the Jubiliee, when Russia's fossil fuel income drops to zero, and Putin is rendered homeless panhandling for spare change, another tool to drive it down in the interim is to turn the market into a monopsony buyer as much as possible, by having the EU and friends make purchases through one centralized designated buyer, who uses the most predatory purchasing practices that are possible.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-play-rough-russia-gas-prices/

Is this basically what we did to Saddam in the 90s?

[Torie]

This idea strikes me as quite clever. Until the time of the Jubiliee, when Russia's fossil fuel income drops to zero, and Putin is rendered homeless panhandling for spare change, another tool to drive it down in the interim is to turn the market into a monopsony buyer as much as possible, by having the EU and friends make purchases through one centralized designated buyer, who uses the most predatory purchasing practices that are possible.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-play-rough-russia-gas-prices/

Is this basically what we did to Saddam in the 90s?

I don't know.

[Storr]

I know this is likely due to English not being his first language. But, confusing before and after is definitely...interesting.

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1511257451013754883?s=20&t=uc5Orw...