Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

The SPD's Michael Müller – once the Governing Mayor of Berlin, now an influential Member of the Bundestag – has spoken out in favor of facilitating negotiations between Russia and Ukraine rather than further escalating the conflict:

"We need to keep our lines of communication open. We must be open for dialogue. It is very sad that the Greens and the FDP don't understand this."

Seems as if intra-SPD support for the Ukrainian cause is increasingly eroding. Scholz is not to be envied.

Sure, I'm all in favor of even restoring a direct DC-Moscow phone line (Skype? Zoom?) and giving the Russians the legitimacy they've always always craved. Maybe even loop in Brussels and Beijing this time.

We answer the line and ask Putin if he's willing to withdraw to 2014 lines, try war criminals, fund Ukrainian reconstruction efforts and maybe even hold an internationally observed Crimea referendum. If he isn't, we hang-up and continue on course. A solid and clear defeat for imperialism.

Now, what this guy (presumedly) means however is that we give the Russians significantly any of what they seem to be demanding right now. That's clearly out of the question.

[Hollywood]

Let this kill any remaining speculation as to Israel adopting a more pro-Ukrainian stance. It doesn't surprise me for reasons I've previously gone into here - at least humanitarian aid will, allegedly, continue.

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1609886512694595584
Policy inertia in the US and European states means this is a smart move for Netanyahu. Our governments will not reassess and change our Iran/Israel policies for the better, even though this is long overdue.

This isn't a shocker to me.  Israel can't screw around with Russia given their presence and influence in the region, and doesn't help when Ukraine voted against Israel at the UN in November, and didn't attend in December.  Israel needs to worry about Russian/China allies like Iran and Syria, and Ukraine gains nothing by acting petty.  After the Biden administration's mishandling of Saudi Arabia, John Kerry handing Israeli Intelligence to Iran, rekindle the Nuclear Agreement, and attempts to influence the Israeli Election against Netanyahu with the Lebanon Deal and Media, they cannot rely on the US with Biden at the helm.  They are sitting next to Russian allies, and need to fly through Russian/Syrian Airspace to conduct pre-emptive strikes.  And it's not just Israel.  Brazil is also resuming geopolitical cooperation, particularly economics.  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Let this kill any remaining speculation as to Israel adopting a more pro-Ukrainian stance. It doesn't surprise me for reasons I've previously gone into here - at least humanitarian aid will, allegedly, continue.

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1609886512694595584
Policy inertia in the US and European states means this is a smart move for Netanyahu. Our governments will not reassess and change our Iran/Israel policies for the better, even though this is long overdue.

This isn't a shocker to me.  Israel can't screw around with Russia given their presence and influence in the region, and doesn't help when Ukraine voted against Israel at the UN in November, and didn't attend in December.  Israel needs to worry about Russian/China allies like Iran and Syria, and Ukraine gains nothing by acting petty.  After the Biden administration's mishandling of Saudi Arabia, John Kerry handing Israeli Intelligence to Iran, rekindle the Nuclear Agreement, and attempts to influence the Israeli Election against Netanyahu with the Lebanon Deal and Media, they cannot rely on the US with Biden at the helm.  They are sitting next to Russian allies, and need to fly through Russian/Syrian Airspace to conduct pre-emptive strikes.  And it's not just Israel.  Brazil is also resuming geopolitical cooperation, particularly economics.  

If Israel can’t afford to “screw around” with Russia, how can the US - let alone European nations - afford to screw around with Iran? Iranian military support to Russia far outsizes anything Russia has done for countries in a high-intensity war with Israel (unless you count its time as part of the USSR).

If they can’t afford to do this, why should they work with Israel to antagonise it?

I don’t blame Israel for their hypocrisy - they act in their interest, knowing that Western countries will keep choosing to ignore it. This doesn’t change the reality that it is a hypocritical policy which costs lives.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s utterly embarrassing that in a conflict that seeing an aggressive authoritarian nation wage a genocidal war of aggression against a neighbor who’s national and ethnic identity they regard as a historical mistake while said invaded nation is lead by a man who has family members who died in the holocaust and is the bane of alt-right in the west due to his Jewish identity that Bibi will side with the invading nation due to feeling ideological kinship a fellow corrupt, grifting, tinpot dictator in Moscow

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1609963845795053569

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've been reading headlines along the lines of "Russia only has enough missiles for 3-4 mass strikes" for months now, and it's going up to as many as 8. Obviously if these predictions were accurate, Russia would have run out of strike options a while ago.

I think the general issue here is some combination of everyone under-counting Russian stocks of missiles, even if some are older and not widely in use anymore, and also the rate at which Russia can produce new missiles.

Granted we are also talking mostly about cruise missiles, which are relatively easy to take down with enough air defenses. Ballistic missiles are much more of a problem and why potential deals with Iran are such a major threat.

After the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the West kept selling microchips and other high tech military equipment. Russia still has a lot of Western microchips in stockpile for it's missile production. If the West had tougher sanctions in 2014, then Russia would be running low today.

The West had a chance to take a tougher stand in 2014, but they wasted 9 years.

It feels like the narrative the US govt has been selling tends to underestimate Russia, while their actions reflect more realistic assessments of their strength.

Which is pretty much what you would expect, I would have thought.

Yep.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

[jaichind]

Can you connect me with President Putin?  I want a similar deal and cash payout for my services.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Can you connect me with President Putin?  I want a similar deal and cash payout for my services.

The amount of effort for $0.07 isn't worth it in value.

[jaichind]

Can you connect me with President Putin?  I want a similar deal and cash payout for my services.

The amount of effort for $0.07 isn't worth it in value.

But I was going to ask President Putin if I can be paid in RUB as written in the contract

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/alert_ukraine/status/1610049870122913794
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1609977821715103745?cxt=HHwWgoCw-Y-T5dcsAAA...
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1609963862400593921?cxt=HHwWgsDT-crm3tcsAAAA

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I have to say I'm proud of the "Knights of the Long Table"

[NOVA Green]

Regardless of the "Doomers" on Atlas, still appears that Ukraine still has tons of "Boosters" in the MSM in the USA while PUBs are on the verge of "Maybe" losing a first round vote for House Majority speaker in almost 100 years?

Anyways...

Here is a small news round up from Amerikkka...

No clapping frogs here....

In one of their deadliest attacks yet on Russian forces, Ukrainians used American-made rockets to kill dozens — and perhaps hundreds — of Moscow’s troops in a New Year’s Day strike behind the lines, prompting outraged Russian war hawks to accuse their military of lethal incompetence.

The strike by the HIMARS rockets killed 63 Russian soldiers in a building housing them in the occupied city of Makiivka, in eastern Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday — an unusual admission for a military that has often refused to acknowledge serious losses. A former Russian paramilitary commander in Ukraine, Igor Girkin, wrote on the Telegram app that “many hundreds” were dead and wounded and that many “remained under the rubble.”

Ukrainian military officials said it appeared that “about 400” Russian troops had been killed, though they did not explicitly say that Kyiv was behind the attack.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/02/world/europe/ukraine-russia-himars-makiivka.html

Meanwhile US Military Troops performing tons of War Games in Romania:

The soldiers of the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne Division train, eat and sleep on a drab, sprawling post in southeast Romania, a mere seven-minute rocket flight from where Russia has stockpiled munitions in Crimea.

Farther north, in military exercises with Romanian troops just a few miles from the Ukrainian border, U.S. soldiers, also from the 101st division, are firing artillery, launching helicopter assaults and digging trenches similar to those on the front lines in the region near Kherson, the Ukrainian port city from which Russian troops retreated in November.

It is the first time the 101st Airborne Division has been deployed to Europe since World War II, and with their presence in Romania, a member of NATO, its soldiers are now closer to the war in Ukraine than any other U.S. Army unit.

The division was ordered to deploy about 4,000 soldiers and senior commanders just weeks after Russia invaded. They arrived at the air base, near the Romanian coastal city of Constanta, over the summer. The base previously served as a sleepy outpost for training NATO troops, including several hundred American soldiers, and was known more broadly in the military as a way station with a small mess hall for U.S. forces heading to and from Afghanistan.

As part of military exercises with American and British forces, Romanian troops have been testing the HIMARS rocket launching systems — the same weapons that have helped Ukraine push Russian forces into retreat — against simulated targets in the Black Sea over the past few months. Romania bought three of the rocket systems years ago, and officials said they are still in the process of being delivered.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/world/europe/us-troops-romania-russia-ukraine-war.html

Once again Ukraine accuses Russian forces for their "smoking habits" near stockpiles of ammo:

Without claiming responsibility for the attack, Kyiv’s military command said that at least 400 soldiers were killed in the strike in Makiivka, a city in eastern Ukraine under Russian occupation, and that at least 300 soldiers were injured. Russia’s Defense Ministry put the death toll at 63.

In a statement posted to Telegram, the Department of Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided little detail, suggesting sarcastically that the incident was the result of “the careless handling of heating devices, neglect of security measures and smoking.”

Igor Girkin, an ultranationalist figure who led Moscow-backed separatists during the conflict in Donbas in 2014 and regularly criticizes Russia’s military decisions, said that the building had been “almost completely destroyed” and alleged that ammunition stored in the building had compounded the damage.

“Almost all of the military equipment was also destroyed, which stood right next to the building without any disguise whatsoever,” Girkin wrote on Telegram, saying that “many hundreds” had been killed and wounded and that many were still missing under the rubble.

Several commentators said that the victims in Makiivka included men from central Russia who had been recently conscripted as part of the Kremlin’s widely unpopular mobilization drive. Russian state media reported that the recruits had been using their cellphones, which reporters speculated had revealed their location.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/02/ukraine-russia-war-donetsk-strike/

Here's another angle from The Wall Street Journal:

Anastasia Kashevarova, a Russian official, said the troops housed at the compound were mobilized from Russia’s Saratov and Samara regions.

Rybar, a Telegram news channel with links to the Russian military, said that about 70 people had been confirmed dead and more than 100 wounded as debris continued to be cleared at the site. Russian President Vladimir Putin last month included Rybar’s founder, Mikhail Zvinchuk, in a new Kremlin-run working group producing a monthly report on the progress of Russia’s troop mobilization.

Earlier, Ukraine’s armed forces—without saying they were behind the strike—said 400 troops had died and 300 were wounded at the school. Some Russian military journalists and bloggers, who embed with the Russian military, estimated that casualties ranged from 200 to 600 people, saying that the troops were housed at a vocational school compound. They and Russian-installed officials in Donbas said the strike came at the stroke of midnight on New Year’s Eve.

Photos of the site have since spread on Russian social media. Several of the military bloggers said the army had stored ammunition at the same location that triggered a large explosion leveling the building. Military equipment placed next to the building “without the slightest sign of disguise” was also destroyed, said Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who commanded irregular Russian forces in the area in 2014, on the social-media app Telegram.

The attack caused uproar among some of the most vocal supporters of Russia’s war, who criticized the military housing the soldiers in a vulnerable location, blaming its leadership for failing to learn any lessons since the invasion last February. Mr. Girkin described Russian generals as untrainable, saying he had been warned the strike could happen at any time after Ukraine began targeting Russian troop locations with satellite-guided Himars rockets over the summer.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-strikes-russian-forces-in-donbas-as-kyiv-repels-more-drone-swarms-11672665144?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Regardless of the "Doomers" on Atlas, still appears that Ukraine still has tons of "Boosters" in the MSM in the USA while PUBs are on the verge of "Maybe" losing a first round vote for House Majority speaker in almost 100 years?

Anyways...

Here is a small news round up from Amerikkka...

No clapping frogs here....

In one of their deadliest attacks yet on Russian forces, Ukrainians used American-made rockets to kill dozens — and perhaps hundreds — of Moscow’s troops in a New Year’s Day strike behind the lines, prompting outraged Russian war hawks to accuse their military of lethal incompetence.

The strike by the HIMARS rockets killed 63 Russian soldiers in a building housing them in the occupied city of Makiivka, in eastern Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday — an unusual admission for a military that has often refused to acknowledge serious losses. A former Russian paramilitary commander in Ukraine, Igor Girkin, wrote on the Telegram app that “many hundreds” were dead and wounded and that many “remained under the rubble.”

Ukrainian military officials said it appeared that “about 400” Russian troops had been killed, though they did not explicitly say that Kyiv was behind the attack.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/02/world/europe/ukraine-russia-himars-makiivka.html

Meanwhile US Military Troops performing tons of War Games in Romania:

The soldiers of the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne Division train, eat and sleep on a drab, sprawling post in southeast Romania, a mere seven-minute rocket flight from where Russia has stockpiled munitions in Crimea.

Farther north, in military exercises with Romanian troops just a few miles from the Ukrainian border, U.S. soldiers, also from the 101st division, are firing artillery, launching helicopter assaults and digging trenches similar to those on the front lines in the region near Kherson, the Ukrainian port city from which Russian troops retreated in November.

It is the first time the 101st Airborne Division has been deployed to Europe since World War II, and with their presence in Romania, a member of NATO, its soldiers are now closer to the war in Ukraine than any other U.S. Army unit.

The division was ordered to deploy about 4,000 soldiers and senior commanders just weeks after Russia invaded. They arrived at the air base, near the Romanian coastal city of Constanta, over the summer. The base previously served as a sleepy outpost for training NATO troops, including several hundred American soldiers, and was known more broadly in the military as a way station with a small mess hall for U.S. forces heading to and from Afghanistan.

As part of military exercises with American and British forces, Romanian troops have been testing the HIMARS rocket launching systems — the same weapons that have helped Ukraine push Russian forces into retreat — against simulated targets in the Black Sea over the past few months. Romania bought three of the rocket systems years ago, and officials said they are still in the process of being delivered.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/world/europe/us-troops-romania-russia-ukraine-war.html

Once again Ukraine accuses Russian forces for their "smoking habits" near stockpiles of ammo:

Without claiming responsibility for the attack, Kyiv’s military command said that at least 400 soldiers were killed in the strike in Makiivka, a city in eastern Ukraine under Russian occupation, and that at least 300 soldiers were injured. Russia’s Defense Ministry put the death toll at 63.

In a statement posted to Telegram, the Department of Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided little detail, suggesting sarcastically that the incident was the result of “the careless handling of heating devices, neglect of security measures and smoking.”

Igor Girkin, an ultranationalist figure who led Moscow-backed separatists during the conflict in Donbas in 2014 and regularly criticizes Russia’s military decisions, said that the building had been “almost completely destroyed” and alleged that ammunition stored in the building had compounded the damage.

“Almost all of the military equipment was also destroyed, which stood right next to the building without any disguise whatsoever,” Girkin wrote on Telegram, saying that “many hundreds” had been killed and wounded and that many were still missing under the rubble.

Several commentators said that the victims in Makiivka included men from central Russia who had been recently conscripted as part of the Kremlin’s widely unpopular mobilization drive. Russian state media reported that the recruits had been using their cellphones, which reporters speculated had revealed their location.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/02/ukraine-russia-war-donetsk-strike/

Here's another angle from The Wall Street Journal:

Anastasia Kashevarova, a Russian official, said the troops housed at the compound were mobilized from Russia’s Saratov and Samara regions.

Rybar, a Telegram news channel with links to the Russian military, said that about 70 people had been confirmed dead and more than 100 wounded as debris continued to be cleared at the site. Russian President Vladimir Putin last month included Rybar’s founder, Mikhail Zvinchuk, in a new Kremlin-run working group producing a monthly report on the progress of Russia’s troop mobilization.

Earlier, Ukraine’s armed forces—without saying they were behind the strike—said 400 troops had died and 300 were wounded at the school. Some Russian military journalists and bloggers, who embed with the Russian military, estimated that casualties ranged from 200 to 600 people, saying that the troops were housed at a vocational school compound. They and Russian-installed officials in Donbas said the strike came at the stroke of midnight on New Year’s Eve.

Photos of the site have since spread on Russian social media. Several of the military bloggers said the army had stored ammunition at the same location that triggered a large explosion leveling the building. Military equipment placed next to the building “without the slightest sign of disguise” was also destroyed, said Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who commanded irregular Russian forces in the area in 2014, on the social-media app Telegram.

The attack caused uproar among some of the most vocal supporters of Russia’s war, who criticized the military housing the soldiers in a vulnerable location, blaming its leadership for failing to learn any lessons since the invasion last February. Mr. Girkin described Russian generals as untrainable, saying he had been warned the strike could happen at any time after Ukraine began targeting Russian troop locations with satellite-guided Himars rockets over the summer.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-strikes-russian-forces-in-donbas-as-kyiv-repels-more-drone-swarms-11672665144?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Thanks for regularly providing these round-ups. They are especially helpful for me when I have too little time to go through recent news about the conflict.

[Virginiá]

Thanks for regularly providing these round-ups. They are especially helpful for me when I have too little time to go through recent news about the conflict.

Yeah same. Part of the week I don't have time to keep up to date on just about anything except maybe skimming this thread for a few minutes.

[Virginiá]

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Amid reluctance to deliver more heavy weapons, Germany is at least working towards solutions to the ammunition problems (according to Der Spiegel): https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-Krieg-Hersteller-fuer-fehlende-Gepard-Munition-gefunden-Wehrressort-in-Norwegen-article23453142.html

The government is apparently looking to fire up a disused factory in Romania which previously produced Soviet-era artillery ammunition (presumably this was previously financed by the Bundeswehr until it retired all of its GDR stocks).

I'm quoting this to offer some perspective on the speed at which these things move. In the interim, I've seen nothing concrete about this part of the Spiegel story - although there is firm evidence of newly manufactured Romanian ammunition going to Ukraine.

This new WSJ article mentions the following:

Some efforts are being made to expand production across Europe. Germany will co-finance the refurbishment and expansion of a Soviet-era factory in Romania to produce both NATO-standard shells and types compatible with Soviet-standard weapons used by Ukraine, according to German and Romanian officials. The project, which hasn’t been previously reported, could be unveiled by the end of this month.

It is possible the bolded text is true and that we are talking about different factories, but I'm guessing the people at WSJ simply didn't connect the dots to the Spiegel story.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ever since Russia's first Donbas offensive slowed down, the Wagner Group ramped up its criticisms of the Russian Army. It heavily publicised its presence in Bakhmut - and as Bakhmut isn't delivering the headlines its leadership wants, the mercenary group now seems to be escalating its criticisms of the Russian state. A Russian general who sits in the Duma also criticised Wagner four days ago, arguing that they should be "put in their place" as an illegal group which had gone overboard by insulting Army Chief of Staff Gerasimov.

They do appear to have been rationing ammo a bit more in recent weeks, according to Kofman - perhaps this is because RuMOD is drawing some red lines as to their consumption rates. Some of the complaints have focused on this apparent lack of ammunition, but it seems Prigozhin wants to lean more into the ridiculous to avoid making Wagner look weak.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1610105463605190657
This may just be an anti-bureaucracy/red tape type kind of complaint, but it's hard not to see a pathway to an argument that reads something like "We're not doing better than the Army because of the deep state." Russia's domestic political situation is probably stabler than in the aftermath of the Kharkiv/Kherson counteroffensives, but I'd advise keeping an eye on RuMOD-Wagner/Kadryovite tensions for now.

[Logical]

The official death toll from the New Years Day missile strike has gone up to 89, although this is likely just the bodies they can identify immediately.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1610402710062235648

US intelligence believes that the numbers are higher. Either way, you can scratch one battalion from the Russian order of battle.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1610398369460936704

[Storr]

The official death toll from the New Years Day missile strike has gone up to 89, although this is likely just the bodies they can identify immediately.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1610402710062235648

US intelligence believes that the numbers are higher. Either way, you can scratch one battalion from the Russian order of battle.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1610398369460936704

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1610400046394101760?s=20&t=Fk1CdXji...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1610272391778680833?s=20&t=Fk1CdX...

[NOVA Green]

Interesting read from The Wall Street Journal as a right after New Years Day (observed) gift...

I had previously posted multiple other stories starting from the beginning of the War in Ukraine on the "Home-Grown" ingenuity of Ukrainians when it came to preparing and dealing with a complete asymmetrical style of warfare, compared to what most "experts" and "Western Pols" thought would most likely result in a quick Russian complete conquest of Ukraine, with the exception of perhaps a buffer area within the Western 1/3 of the County.

Ukrainian "Home Grown", still continues to be an "X-Factor" in this war, regardless of continued "hand-outs" and "welfare" from NATO allies.

Few brief excerpts... if you don't have a sub, consider using a freebie of your monthly (If WSJ does that?), or just do a one month free trial sub if interested (where you can cancel without payment?)''

Very long article, so just the tip of the reporting....  (Here is my brief "Op-Ed" before the meat of the story.

1.) Ukraine will continue to innovate, regardless of support from external allies in what has effectively become an existential war for the existence of Ukraine as a Free and Independent Country.

2.) Despite the full might of "The Empire", Ukraine can and will continue to fight to not only defend their Nation, but also those other former Soviet Republics who worry every day about the massive revival of Russian Nationalism, Military Expansionism targeting former Russian Soviet Republics.

3.) Russia has effectively become a completely illiberal Nation, where the thin veneer of Russian "Democracy" has been completed ripped of the face of the facade, and now in 2023 it is patently clear that "The Emperor Has No Clothes".

4.) Ukraine should continue to deserve the full support of all free nations, in both military, economic, and social support.

Regardless, Ukraine will never, ever, allow their country to be dominated by Putin's thugs and Oligarch Buddies on the take...

Ukraine has achieved a cut-price version of what the Pentagon has spent decades and billions of dollars striving to accomplish: digitally networked fighters, intelligence and weapons.

Kyiv’s improvised web of drones, fighters and weapons, linked through satellite communications and custom software, is giving its soldiers a level of intelligence, coordination and accuracy that has allowed the initially outnumbered and outgunned forces to run circles around Russia’s massive but lumbering armies.

Ukraine’s grab bag of systems, built largely around off-the-shelf equipment, remain a far cry from the U.S. military’s sprawling and hugely ambitious digitization effort, which has evolved and expanded with technological advances and carries names such as network-centric warfare. The Defense Department aims for network scale, security and bandwidth that far exceed Ukraine’s ambitions.

In Ukraine, home to a thriving tech-outsourcing industry and hackers who operate outside the law, the motivated people are often software engineers who connect using digital services like encrypted messenger Signal and networks from companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX. And their tools have become mobile apps, 3-D printers and consumer drones.

Units are modifying off-the-shelf drones with slings they can release remotely to drop grenades on enemy positions. Volunteer soldiers are using their private-sector experience developing enterprise resource-management software for multinationals to automate payroll on the front lines. One Ukrainian company is building remote-controlled electric vehicles that can be mounted with heavy machine guns or other cargo.

One element of Ukraine’s success in innovation is how different military units and Ukrainian tech companies are working on their own new military technologies—a bottom-up approach that at times more closely resembles a string of Silicon Valley garages than a Pentagon-funded project.

The result is a cut-price, improvised approximation of vast efforts that the Defense Department and other Western militaries have been working on for years, a secure digital matrix linking commanders, fighters, weapons and intelligence, say Western defense specialists familiar with Ukraine’s systems. U.S. ambitions for networked warfare have sprawled to cover a panoply of services, weapons systems and intelligence agencies while also trying to keep pace with tech advances.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-has-digitized-its-fighting-forces-on-a-shoestring-11672741405?mod=hp_lead_pos6

[NOVA Green]

Some interesting musings from Phil's sub-stack now that he is looking at splitting from Twitter.

(Totally free and no paywall required).

Don't want to overquote, so gotta hit up the link yourself, but yeah Phil looking extremely vindicated from his posts way back to the start of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2.0

Since before Feb 24 I assumed Ukraine would emerge victorious in some form from a war with Russia, if Putin was rash enough to invade (see yesterday’s post)

The idea that Ukraine would emerge victorious came from a number of different assessments—that the Ukrainians were determined to fight for their independence, that they would receive aid, and that the Russian military was being grossly overrated by the analytic community. That being said, the road to a Ukrainian victory was very hazy indeed. After more than 10 months of full-scale conflict, however, visions of that victory are becoming clearer (if still rather indefinite). It will depend on a great deal of different variables, most importantly being the amount and type of aid provided to the combatants by outsiders—for Ukraine primarily the NATO states and for Russia primarily China/Iran

From the very beginning, Ukrainian campaign planning has been leaps and bounds ahead of its Russian equivalent. Whereas the Russians seem possessed by political victories and the taking of places on maps (Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and of course Bakhmut), the Ukrainians have from the start realized that their real enemy is the Russian military machine. The Russians set themselves objectives to seize, and the Ukrainians tasks to accomplish, and intellectually that difference is so important. The former/Russian method (which I would argue is very much a war-gaming way of looking at war and led to the overestimation of Russian military capacity before the war) is based on conducting operation with arrows on the map heading towards objectives that should be seized. The whole Battle of the Donbas seemed very much like this—the Russian army directed to take places, regardless of whether they actually mattered to Ukrainian force generation and, even more strangely, regardless of whether the massive Russian losses suffered to take those objectives were worth it for the losses being inflicted on the Ukrainians.

What the Ukrainians did in the summer of 2022 was basically attrit down Putin’s first Russian Army. Particularly once they gained an advantage in range and accuracy, they spent their effort destroying the Russian ability to resist, actually avoiding direct assaults wherever possible. They attacked in Kharkiv where there were very few Russian troops and then in Kherson, once they realized that Russia had too many troops to attack directly, the patiently destroyed Russian logistics and command and control, making it impossible for Russia to maintain forces on the west bank of the Dnipro.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/thinking-ahead-how-ukraine-might

[Virginiá]

Seems likely that Biden will actually pull the trigger on the Bradley, at least in the sense that other countries are finally opting to send modern IFVs to Ukraine, so they must believe the US is going to as well, or have received assurances of such. France is going with the AMX-10 RC:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1610694187824943107

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-france-to-send-light-tanks/a-64281700

France is to send AMX-10 RC armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine following a call between the countries' presidents.

"This is the first time that Western-made armored vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army," a French official said.

I'll note that this is NOT a "tank" so much as an wheeled IFV (infantry fighting vehicle, so an APC with offensive capabilities). In fact, it's even more a mobile gun system, like America's Stryker MGS. These are IFVs with large caliber cannons, like the 105mm. In fact, the US is retiring all 120+ of their Stryker MGS's and should have nearly concluded that process already, so I do wonder if this has come up in discussions at the White House. I haven't seen it mentioned but if the US is willing to go with Bradleys, this seems like a no-brainer.

It's going to take a lot of these to truly make a difference and make the increased logistical demands worth it, though. So I hope France isn't planning to just send a couple dozen and call it a day. Ditto for Biden. Ukraine needs many hundreds of these vehicles to truly make a difference. In our case, we have thousands of these in reserve.

[Virginiá]

lolol

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1610691713231720460