Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

Minus two digits soon once the energy bills catch up to futures



Anyway, in Austria, the Vienna gas provider is apparently out of cash, and is begging for a bailout.

While ways out of the misery were being discussed at the energy crisis summit in the Chancellery, the supplier Wien Energie caused a sensation with dramatic information: The company with around two million customers is in financial distress and needs guarantees from the federal government in the amount of 1 77 billion euros.

https://www.krone.at/2793928

On the Germany front, the Greens and their minister are rightfully being called out for being a big reason this whole crisis is as bad as it is.

This is where Habeck's real omissions lie: Although experts demanded immediately after the start of the war that all coal and nuclear power that was still available be mobilized, he hesitated to break the green taboo that was necessary. He preferred to allow the power generation of horrendous amounts of gas to continue over the summer. The consequences can be seen in the skyrocketing energy prices, which are leading Germany straight into recession.

"For the next few years, all available coal and nuclear power plants are to be maintained or reactivated." This sentence comes from an open letter from a few dozen energy experts at the beginning of March. A week after the start of the war it was clear what had to be done. But the government lacked emphasis, did not act, shied away from the nuclear decision and regulated the return to coal-fired power generation so restrictively that only one coal-fired power plant has been connected to the grid to date, while the superfluous gas-fired power generation continues at full speed.

Perhaps Robert Habeck's biggest mistake lies on another level. He belongs to a party that has always believed in only one type of adviser, namely those who have been uttering sentences of this quality for years – and in some cases even after the start of the war: “The renewables are ready.” “Coal and nuclear power are clogging just the nets.” “We don’t need LNG.”

None of that was true. However, it was carried into people's minds in the media via the NGO scene, which is mainly financed by the European Climate Foundation. Politicians therefore felt that they had to comply with the will of the people and switched off large quantities of electricity generators through state market interventions without having a replacement.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article240715281/Gasumlage-Robert-Habecks-groesster-Fehler-sind-die-falschen-Ratgeber.html

Also, due to extreme gas prices, there is now even a glass shortage in Europe, with companies starting to stockpile and prepare for the hard times ahead.

Volkswagen is stockpiling windows and windscreens amid a glass shortage in Europe, per the WSJ.
Glass making requires large amounts of natural gas, which has become far more expensive. 
A German brewer told The Journal it had bought 50 million beer bottles to cope with shortages.

https://www.businessinsider.com/volkswagen-is-stockpiling-windshields-amid-looming-glass-shortage-wsj-2022-8

[NOVA Green]

Not a great day to be a collaborator:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563160607603318784?s=20&t=UMORY_...

Video of another collaborator meeting his fate

https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1563165675476369408

Props to the dude who was smoking on the front steps and took one more drag before heading in

Another one:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1563655536486354945?s=20&t=CgqYIP...

Well tbh do we really know that he was hanged by Ukrainian Partisans, or perhaps might have committed suicide?

It sounds like this might have been a village liberated by Ukraine from the "temporarily occupied" verbiage.

Still, when I was living in East Berlin shortly after the fall of the East German GVT, someone I knew from a local soup kitchen told the story of how his Dad had committed suicide shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, mainly because his neighbors shunned him because he worked for the STASI.

If it was in a liberated Ukrainian Town and village, I would hope that the Collaborator would have been given a trial rather than an extrajudicial execution, since technically in that scenario the Government of Ukraine has taken control of the territory, and at that point even collaborators should be treated as non-military (civilian), and even if one considers the Russian Occupiers police force to be a "Military Force", would then be considered more of POW, and still entitled to all just legal processes.

If a collaborator is located within Ukrainian territory prior to the 1st round of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in the post Soviet era, then certainly I would consider that to be a legitimate military target, since effectively they are agents of the Occupying Power.

Naturally one person's "terrorist" might be another persons "freedom fighter" and all that, but pretty clear that if your sovereign nation is invaded by another nation, that the rules of what constitute legitimate military targets, would likely include the political and governmental domestic agents representing the occupying power.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I hope after the war is over the US, UK, Germany and France issue a defense guarantee to Ukraine.  They should have done it in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Crimea.

The US has said to China that they will defend Taiwan, they should do the same with Ukraine.

[nicholas.slaydon]

I hope after the war is over the US, UK, Germany and France issue a defense guarantee to Ukraine.  They should have done it in 2014 after before the Russian invasion of Crimea.

The US has said to China that they will defend Taiwan, they should do the same with Ukraine.

Corrected that for you

[Woody]

Russians seem to be have their eye for Kharkiv Oblast again. Not far from the border they are now occupying the settlement of Udy. General staff also said they repelled an attack near Svitlychne, which is south of Udy.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563945749817266176

Map location:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-august-russian-forces-in-udy-village-of-kharkiv-region

[CumbrianLefty]

Ukraine strikes at several more targets in Ukraine.

Still have to do a slight double take at that

Also strong rumours that the big push for Kherson has begun

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1564182512758394881
https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1564194589300457475
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1564206149783650304
The Kherson offensive is about to begin!!!

[CumbrianLefty]

Will still fully believe it when I see it, mind.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Buckle up, Kherson...
Not that Putin's war has given you much a chance to do so, unfortunately...

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-29/germany-wants-power-market-overhaul-to-dampen-soaring-prices

"Germany Wants Power-Market Overhaul to Dampen Soaring Prices"

many’s economy minister proposed tackling soaring energy costs over the longer term by reforming power markets so that prices are no longer coupled to the most expensive supplier.

Smart idea to remove this silly system.  Of course the entire nature of this type of pricing model is to subsidize green energy like wind and solar.  So if Germany changes this system, which is an excellent idea, it will of course be backtracking on the green energy push.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-to-suspend-visa-facilitation-agreement-with-russia-report/

"EU set to suspend visa facilitation agreement with Russia: Report"

There is pressure for a complete Russia visa ban for EU.  I think getting rid of this multiple entry visa for Russians is the compromise.  Of course this hurts the very Russians that are most likely to be opposed to Putin (Russians with a lot of cultural and economic connections with the West and are much more likely to make multiple visits to EU in a short period.)

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1564233146098384896
https://mobile.twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1564234197123964929

[The Dowager Mod]

The VDV "withdrew" lol, that's a euphemism if i ever heard one.

[Sir Mohamed]

I hope after the war is over the US, UK, Germany and France issue a defense guarantee to Ukraine.  They should have done it in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Crimea.

The US has said to China that they will defend Taiwan, they should do the same with Ukraine.

Yup, and set the path for admission to NATO. Ideally, the end of the war leaves Russia and its military in such horrible shape that they won't be in a position to attack anyone again.

And any potential help to stabilize Russia economically and with humanitarian aid afterwards should be conditioned on serious reforms. Putin and his gang no longer should be considered any dialogue partners beyond the absolutely necessary.

[rc18]

Honestly this is sounding like a bit of a twitter offensive at the moment, very little hard evidence of significant advances. A few of the claims being made earlier seem to be from fake accounts. A couple of villages may have been retaken on the far side of the Inhulets but that's about it.

I'd be very surprised if a significant offensive started in daytime anyway as that would waste the advantage of Western supplied night vision equipment.

[Hindsight was 2020]

From Russian sources themselves
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564274795146932224

[Storr]

While we're trying to make sense of the twitter chatter about a possible AFU breakthrough, have a clip of a Russian missile missing the Inhulsky Bridge in Mykolaiv:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1564252672567513089?s=20&t=dibfgluHJ...

[Storr]

Not a great day to be a collaborator:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563160607603318784?s=20&t=UMORY_...

Video of another collaborator meeting his fate

https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1563165675476369408

Props to the dude who was smoking on the front steps and took one more drag before heading in

Another one:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1563655536486354945?s=20&t=CgqYIP...

And it's been confirmed one of the highest profile collaborators MP Alexey Kovalyov (formerly of Zelensky's party, Servant of the People) died in his home by gunshot wound to the head. He was claimed to have been killed back in June, but this time his demise appears to be genuine.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1564152992269570049?s=20&t=eU2otd...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1564279390279815169?s=20&t=eU2otdDQlq0E...

[Silent Hunter]

Honestly this is sounding like a bit of a twitter offensive at the moment, very little hard evidence of significant advances. A few of the claims being made earlier seem to be from fake accounts. A couple of villages may have been retaken on the far side of the Inhulets but that's about it.

I'd be very surprised if a significant offensive started in daytime anyway as that would waste the advantage of Western supplied night vision equipment.

It's now 7:43pm in Kyiv. It's not dark, but it will be soon.

[Torie]

Assuming it is not a pseudo offensive (not sure why it would be in Ukraine’s interest to launch a virtual rather than real offensive, which would damage its credibility), I was googling around as to what the implications would be of Russia being ejected from Kherson, and then perhaps having its lines of communication between its south Ukraine forces and the Dombas. That seems to me something that would really freak Putin out. What is the man like when he is a cornered animal?

As to Ukraine, its showing that its new military toys are really making a difference on the ground and enabling it to take back contested real estate that Russia clearly does not want to lose, is a really good way to enhance the odds that the toys will continue to flow their way. It would be politically very difficult to justify stopping the flow. I guess one issue is if Ukraine gets close to Crimea itself, will Biden tell Zelinsky to not shoot missiles to blow up stuff in Crimea itself in a systematic manner, or start trashing Sevastapol.

Anyway, here is a pretty good analysis of the state of play a few days ago.

https://www.vox.com/world/2022/8/24/23311778/ukraine-war-russia-winning-six-months

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1564300176482770944?cxt=HHwWgICx1Z6uwbUrAAAA
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1564300174729551877

[Woody]

The mayor of Odessa now favors the option that Ukraine starts peace talks with Russia as soon as possible.

The mayor of Odessa, Gennady Trukhanov, said that it is necessary to negotiate with Russia and seek compromises. An interview with him was published on August 29 by an Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.

He noted the importance of political negotiations, as “the lives of millions of people are at stake.”

“Of course, I would like to return our borders of 1991, but this must be done step by step, compromises must be found, and wall-to-wall logic should be avoided,” the Odessa mayor emphasized.

The actions of the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky since the beginning of Russia’s special military operation to protect Donbass, he called “generally correct.” However, Trukhanov criticized the fact that the country’s president did not grant more autonomy to the regions and municipalities.

On August 13, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, said that peace negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian sides would mean a victory for Russia. He noted that at the moment Kyiv has no reason to resume peace talks.

https://pledgetimes.com/the-mayor-of-odessa-called-for-negotiations-with-russia/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1564341780769824768

[Virginiá]

Well, any way you cut it, there is definitely a major operation going on:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1564348154132238337

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1564378604850626567
https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1564351232747065344
One of biggest cautious accounts on the Kherson news earlier today seems to be confirming it and now request to go dark proves that it in on for Kherson 😎