Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/TaranQ/status/1563574382554845185

Putin signs a decree allowing permanent residence for Ukrainians fleeing or taken to Russia, right to work, etc.. and a monthly pension of 10k rubles.

[Omega21]

European Fertilizer and Chemical plants, which are very sensitive to energy prices, are winding down or shutting down completely.

Less fertilizer = fewer jobs + less food

https://twitter.com/ICIS_Sylvia/status/1562820700108271618

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/scholzs-spd-lawmakers-demand-an-end-to-ukraine-war-negotiations-with-russia/

"Scholz’s SPD lawmakers demand an end to Ukraine war, negotiations with Russia"

We can more than make up for it even if Berlin gets cold feet.

To put it into context... it's a faction within the SPD's left wing. Hardly a majority, but a very vocal minority.

It's a sign, along with FDP's Kubicki's recent Nord Stream comment, that at least the consensus on Ukraine begins to crack. What used to be (seemingly) near-unanimous support for Ukraine among SPD, FDP, or CDU ranks is starting to get reduced to a three-fourth or maybe two-third majority. Or to phrase it differently: There probably ALWAYS was a 2/3 to 3/4 support for Ukraine in these parties and the remaining 1/4 to 1/3 that had largely been silent up until now are starting to speak up.

What does that mean for the future? Increasing infighting within the SPD over the Ukraine issue is to be expected. Maybe that infighting will force the SPD leadership to adopt a more "moderate" stance on Ukraine to appease the critics. However, adopting such a stance would almost certainly threaten to lead to infghting within the governing coalition itself, between SPD and Greens/FDP, fueled by additional criticism from the CDU opposition. That was basically the reaction that open letter of the "SPD rebels" has already provoked among the ranks of the Greens and CDU, attempting to pressure the SPD into keeping their own people in check.

In essence, Germany won't abandon Ukraine, but up to a point its support could effectively be paralyzed by internal strife and conflict. Which is exactly what Putin counts on, I guess.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

European Fertilizer and Chemical plants, which are very sensitive to energy prices, are winding down or shutting down completely.

Less fertilizer = fewer jobs + less food

https://twitter.com/ICIS_Sylvia/status/1562820700108271618

Europe will not be where most people who suffer substantially from this will be, I suspect. The Third World, on the other hand...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/scholzs-spd-lawmakers-demand-an-end-to-ukraine-war-negotiations-with-russia/

"Scholz’s SPD lawmakers demand an end to Ukraine war, negotiations with Russia"

We can more than make up for it even if Berlin gets cold feet.

To put it into context... it's a faction within the SPD's left wing. Hardly a majority, but a very vocal minority.

It's a sign, along with FDP's Kubicki's recent Nord Stream comment, that at least the consensus on Ukraine begins to crack. What used to be (seemingly) near-unanimous support for Ukraine among SPD, FDP, or CDU ranks is starting to get reduced to a three-fourth or maybe two-third majority. Or to phrase it differently: There probably ALWAYS was a 2/3 to 3/4 support for Ukraine in these parties and the remaining 1/4 to 1/3 that had largely been silent up until now are starting to speak up.

What does that mean for the future? Increasing infighting within the SPD over the Ukraine issue is to be expected. Maybe that infighting will force the SPD leadership to adopt a more "moderate" stance on Ukraine to appease the critics. However, adopting such a stance would almost certainly threaten to lead to infghting within the governing coalition itself, between SPD and Greens/FDP, fueled by additional criticism from the CDU opposition. That was basically the reaction that open letter of the "SPD rebels" has already provoked among the ranks of the Greens and CDU, attempting to pressure the SPD into keeping their own people in check.

In essence, Germany won't abandon Ukraine, but up to a point its support could effectively be paralyzed by internal strife and conflict. Which is exactly what Putin counts on, I guess.

Would Germany would probably benefit from having more natural gas storage capacity (relative to usage, anyway)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

ok that's enough jaichind spam. Back to the ignore list you go.

[CumbrianLefty]

ok that's enough jaichind spam. Back to the ignore list you go.

His barely being able to control his excitement over gas shortages this winter maybe giving Putin what he wants has been a real tell hasn't it.

[Red Velvet]

European Fertilizer and Chemical plants, which are very sensitive to energy prices, are winding down or shutting down completely.

Less fertilizer = fewer jobs + less food

https://twitter.com/ICIS_Sylvia/status/1562820700108271618

Europe will not be where most people who suffer substantially from this will be, I suspect. The Third World, on the other hand...

Depends which part of the third world you mean tbh. Here in Brazil we’re heading to be the biggest agricultural exporter (currently surpassed Netherlands, with only US still being ahead but only for the time being).

Bolsonaro has strategic good relations with Putin a lot due to the agrobusiness influence and visited Russia this year to secure the Fertilizers, which Russia is making sure to deliver, thanks to the Brazil signaling as a friend nation. Which means agricultural production won’t be affected.

We just need a more patriotic president that will somewhat limit exportation in order to favor national stock if the situation in the world gets dire that we can assure both local supply and also get richer by offering something that the world increasingly needs.

You need to look where the Russian and Ukrainian exports go to, although it will affect everyone because main food exporters will also be driven towards nationalism in order to secure their countries supply. So especially places that buy from Europe (outside Russia/Ukraine) will be affected because it’s Europe who will do the most work to make sure the food produced on its soil doesn’t leave their land.

You need to look at the combo of
A) Who’s more of an agricultural importer instead of exporter
B) Who is more dependent on European agriculture to get food
C) Who doesn’t have alternatives to their dependence on European food

The first place that comes to mind without searching for any import/export data? Arid places (no fertile soil) that are relatively close to Europe and are surrounded by other importers.

The region that comes first to mind is the Arab world. North African countries + the Middle East. A food crisis on those places would result in massive and broad (not just one country in war) immigration movements and where would they all would go? Europe.

So yeah, there’s probably no sugarcoating around the situation. Even if it doesn’t suffer with hunger, there probably will be still more poverty and increased immigration due to the food crisis. Europe is doomed.

[GoTfan]

ok that's enough jaichind spam. Back to the ignore list you go.

His barely being able to control his excitement over gas shortages this winter maybe giving Putin what he wants has been a real tell hasn't it.

I've been convinced for some time that he is unable to see the world through any sort of moral lens.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yep, just the balance sheet.

[Red Velvet]

Agricultural Top Exporters along time (only the more recent data from 2020 is necessary to look):

Map from 2017 (somewhat dated but still only 5 years ago) showing the Net on food trade - Countries in blue are the ones which export more than they import food the most and will probably be least affected. The countries in Red are the main dependents on importation which makes them the most vulnerable to the coming food crisis:



I was right about it being the Arab world after all. Massive Muslim immigration movements to Europe in a moment of deindustrialization incoming. Basically every place in red or yellow will be very negatively affected.

Also likely internal European migratory movements as well because Southern Europe will totally get the short end of the stick of suffering here if European countries opt to favor their national supply instead of cooperation. I feel bad for Portugal being fully dependent on them on this regard.

It also tells me more Mexico and Central American immigration to USA as well because they’re also very dependent on food imports and if USA or Brazil get nationalist on this, there’s no alternative.

I think it’s an opportunity for Brazil (under a decent non-crazy government) as one of the safest countries on this regard to regain a positive regional influence in South America. There’s enough production to be food secure, so put places like Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Chile as priorities if they want to buy from us. Do NOT prioritize more powerful and richer places like China (which exports a lot but imports even more because their population is huge) or Europe or US if they’re willing to pay more.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which countries import the most grain from Ukraine?

[Red Velvet]

Which countries import the most grain from Ukraine?

Arab/Muslim countries lmao. Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, Somalia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, etc. But also Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

Basically the entire North Africa and the Middle East as a whole with some localized parts of Asia as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which countries import the most grain from Ukraine?

Arab/Muslim countries lmao. Lebanon, Somalia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, etc. But also Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

Basically the entire North Africa and the Middle East as a whole with some localized parts of Asia as well.

Apologies for the bad wording. I meant, which countries are most singularly reliant on Ukraine for grain? I would not be shocked if it was, yes, Arab countries, but I couldn't find data specifically making reference to which countries Ukraine exported the most grain to.

[Red Velvet]

Which countries import the most grain from Ukraine?

Arab/Muslim countries lmao. Lebanon, Somalia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, etc. But also Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

Basically the entire North Africa and the Middle East as a whole with some localized parts of Asia as well.

Apologies for the bad wording. I meant, which countries are most singularly reliant on Ukraine for grain? I would not be shocked if it was, yes, Arab countries, but I couldn't find data specifically making reference to which countries Ukraine exported the most grain to.

In general me neither, but this one talks about Wheat Imports share and a little about other ones, which is very important and a main export from Ukraine: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61583492

- Moldova: 92% of all wheat imports come from Ukraine
- Lebanon: 81%
- Qatar: 64%
- Tunisia: 49%
- Libya: 48%
- Pakistan: 48%
- Indonesia: 29%
- Malaysia: 26%
- Egypt: 26%
- Bangladesh: 25%

And that’s because the article only chooses to list those specific countries, there are more that are even more dependent on wheat than Bangladesh, as the article mentions Yemen, Ethiopia and Afghanistan sourcing 40% of its wheat from Ukraine.

Meanwhile India is heavily dependent on Sunflower Oil, 76% of it comes from Ukraine only. But which is not that important to food security as wheat, I would say.

But anything higher than 10% from one single country is already pretty high imo and bound to have very negative consequences. Not something you can just replace in the short or maybe even medium term.

That said, those are only likely to feel first effects of food crisis by the war. It could become broader and more serious than just Ukrainian exports if European production is compromised as the other poster hinted. To produce you need energy and you also need fertilizers. And that would not just affect third world places but obviously Europe and places that buy from Europe.

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/28/europe-little-option-rescue-consumers-energy-crisis-ukraine-war

"Europe has little option but to rescue consumers from the energy crisis"

According to the consultancy Capital Economics, if gas prices stay at current levels Vladimir Putin could keep exports to Europe at 20% of normal levels for the next two to three years, and could cut off supplies entirely for a year without adverse effects on the Russian economy.

The main problem with this assertion is that gas prices are unlikely to stay at elevated levels due to the increased chances of an economic crisis in the collective West, especially the EU, which will drive down aggregate demand for energy.

[Torie]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/28/europe-little-option-rescue-consumers-energy-crisis-ukraine-war

"Europe has little option but to rescue consumers from the energy crisis"

According to the consultancy Capital Economics, if gas prices stay at current levels Vladimir Putin could keep exports to Europe at 20% of normal levels for the next two to three years, and could cut off supplies entirely for a year without adverse effects on the Russian economy.

The main problem with this assertion is that gas prices are unlikely to stay at elevated levels due to the increased chances of an economic crisis in the collective West, especially the EU, which will drive down aggregate demand for energy.

1. Over the next year or so, assuming Russia is exporting less gas, and will continue to do so, how much of that can be replaced with increased production elsewhere?

2. If the planet has less gas to consume, and assuming the pace of securing alternative sources of energy is a longer term process, then the reduction in gas use needs to be forced with either price increases or rationing. Are there areas of the EU economy that use gas that could literally be shut down or close to it to divert the use to hard pressed consumers that would make any sense?

3. The EU has had at least 8 years' notice that being dependent on Putin controlled exports that were essential to it, without having prepared for an exit ramp, will surely go down as one of the most feckless and short sighted policy choices ever - a case of being worried more about the next election, than the longer term welfare of its citizens.

[NOVA Green]

Ukraine strikes at several more targets in Ukraine.

Extent of damage unclear.


https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563821249595580416?s=20&t=WUPfBU...

https://twitter.com/UkraineDiary/status/1563860946820501507?s=20&t=WUPfBUlyO...

[NOVA Green]

Russian "Reinforcements" heading to Ukraine:

Russia is moving to significantly bolster its forces in Ukraine as its campaign to secure territory in the country’s east and south stalls ahead of planned plebiscites on annexation by Russia.

A series of volunteer battalions formed in recent weeks across Russia is preparing to deploy to Ukraine, officials and military analysts say, including a major new ground-forces formation called the 3rd Army Corps intended to shore up a new offensive in eastern Ukraine and reinforce troops holding off a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south.

Footage posted online purporting to show the 3rd Army Corps training at a Russian military base in Mulino, some 250 miles east of Moscow, displays modern weaponry of a kind rarely deployed to Ukraine, analysts say. However, the U.S.-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War played down the formation’s chances of shifting the military balance in Ukraine, saying in a Saturday report that “better equipment does not necessarily make more effective forces when the personnel are not well-trained or disciplined.”

Conflict Intelligence Team, an open-source investigative group, on Saturday posted photographs of Russian military equipment on railcars, including Buk surface-to-air missile systems and T-90 tanks, that it said were heading to Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine, citing train data published by Russia’s railways service

But the campaign to expand the military’s ranks has caused tension. In Mulino, a town of around 13,000 where the 3rd Army Corps has been training new recruits, residents have been taking to social media to complain about the men wandering the streets drunk after dark and harassing local women.

“The whole village is suffering because of these volunteers,” a woman identifying herself as Ksenia Glotova wrote on Russian social network VK recently. “They walk around in groups and harass. It would be one thing if they were being trained and stayed on their base. But they’re walking around drunk from 11 a.m.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-to-reinforce-its-stalled-assault-on-ukraine-11661686452?mod=hp_lead_pos9

[Woody]

From what I can gather as was written above, the 3rd Army Corps is actually decently equipped, which
means it's most likely ment to be committed to offensive actions..

I (and other 3rd parties) seem to think they are mainly going to be around the Donetsk City Axis, which makes sense as Russia is already going ham for a breakthrough in it's suburbs already. And at this moment is Ukraine's toughest weak spot and concern should it fall (ISW also seems to be holding that view).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is a Russian perspective on what sanctions mean. Courtesy of the Youtube algorithm...
Btw, if you look at the comment section, the person who made the video said they didn't want to end up in jail. So please keep that in mind.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which countries import the most grain from Ukraine?

Arab/Muslim countries lmao. Lebanon, Somalia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, etc. But also Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

Basically the entire North Africa and the Middle East as a whole with some localized parts of Asia as well.

Apologies for the bad wording. I meant, which countries are most singularly reliant on Ukraine for grain? I would not be shocked if it was, yes, Arab countries, but I couldn't find data specifically making reference to which countries Ukraine exported the most grain to.

In general me neither, but this one talks about Wheat Imports share and a little about other ones, which is very important and a main export from Ukraine: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61583492

- Moldova: 92% of all wheat imports come from Ukraine
- Lebanon: 81%
- Qatar: 64%
- Tunisia: 49%
- Libya: 48%
- Pakistan: 48%
- Indonesia: 29%
- Malaysia: 26%
- Egypt: 26%
- Bangladesh: 25%

And that’s because the article only chooses to list those specific countries, there are more that are even more dependent on wheat than Bangladesh, as the article mentions Yemen, Ethiopia and Afghanistan sourcing 40% of its wheat from Ukraine.

Meanwhile India is heavily dependent on Sunflower Oil, 76% of it comes from Ukraine only. But which is not that important to food security as wheat, I would say.

But anything higher than 10% from one single country is already pretty high imo and bound to have very negative consequences. Not something you can just replace in the short or maybe even medium term.

That said, those are only likely to feel first effects of food crisis by the war. It could become broader and more serious than just Ukrainian exports if European production is compromised as the other poster hinted. To produce you need energy and you also need fertilizers. And that would not just affect third world places but obviously Europe and places that buy from Europe.

I wonder how much Ukraine could leverage its position here. It's a supplier of important things, just as Russia is; it just makes less.
Lebanon feels like it should be one of the most pro-Ukraine countries outside of Europe, for numerous reasons, many of them historical.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1563990022470225925?s=20&t=E_iOXRKUx...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1563990022470225925?s=20&t=E_iOXRKUx...

This, a thousand times.

[Storr]

Not a great day to be a collaborator:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563160607603318784?s=20&t=UMORY_...

Video of another collaborator meeting his fate

https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1563165675476369408

Props to the dude who was smoking on the front steps and took one more drag before heading in

Another one:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1563655536486354945?s=20&t=CgqYIP...