Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This does not sound like an action taken by a side for whom things are going well.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1563313796071862272?t=XpHrBFAlQYUYoIeD4L7i-g&...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like UN inspectors will be visiting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant next week:

The team from the International Atomic Energy Agency could bring spare parts, radiation-monitoring devices and other vital materials to the plant, Europe’s largest, amid fears that fighting in the area that has damaged power lines and caused fires at the facility could lead to a nuclear catastrophe.

Over the past 72 hours, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has shuttled between Ukrainian diplomats in Vienna, Russian officials in Istanbul and President Emmanuel Macron in Paris to discuss preparations.

Two people familiar with the situation said it was almost certain an IAEA mission would visit the Zaporizhzhia plant early next week, although final details were still being nailed down. One person said “frantic preparations” were under way. “Next week is the date,” said another. Another said the visit was scheduled for Monday.

“After Chernobyl, this is the most important mission the IAEA has ever undertaken—everything else pales in comparison,” said Morgan D. Libby, a nuclear oversight officer at Excel Services Corporation, who spent years working at plants in the former Soviet Union, including Zaporizhzhia.

Mr. Libby cautioned that there were so many safety issues at the plant that the delegation might need weeks on site to properly address them.

Russian officials have long said that they are open to an IAEA visit to Zaporizhzhia, but until now have set terms—including that inspectors should travel to the plant through Crimea—that were unacceptable to Ukraine and the agency.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-likely-to-inspect-ukraine-nuclear-plant-next-week-11661527167?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[DINGO Joe]

Not a great day to be a collaborator:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563160607603318784?s=20&t=UMORY_...

Video of another collaborator meeting his fate

https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1563165675476369408

Props to the dude who was smoking on the front steps and took one more drag before heading in

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The whole Western world is sending aid, even Taiwan.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1562877892874252290

[NOVA Green]

Not a great day to be a collaborator:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563160607603318784?s=20&t=UMORY_...

Video of another collaborator meeting his fate

https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1563165675476369408

Props to the dude who was smoking on the front steps and took one more drag before heading in

Really easy to drop a lit cig right before it hits a some flammable and highly combustible materials in a part of the world where most men tend to smoke cigs...

[Person Man]

https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2022/08/24/European-governments-spend-278-billion-to-cushion-energy-crisis

"European governments spend $278 billion to cushion energy crisis"

This is unwise.  Economics is about the allocation of scarce resources that have alternative uses.  High prices are just a signal that there is excess demand for a scarce resource.  Just handing out free money to mitigate the impact of high prices does not increase the supply of said scarce resources.  The solution to high prices is high prices.  The fact is high prices just mean some demand for these scarce resources will just have to go unmet with allocation going to those willing to pay more which represents a greater need.

The choice is basically:

1) Let parts of the industry/economy suffocate due to inability to compete on the intl markets, thereby relieving demand, whilst causing an unemployement crisis + recession

2) Somehow convince Putin to turn on the tap and increase supply (like turning on NS2).

Choice 1 sacrifices our economy and the bottom 50% of the population, choice 2 sacrifices the "commitment to Ukraine"

So, something has to go. This dream of printing money or "subsidizing" high energy prices is beyond foolish with raging inflation and an already weak euro.

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1563129148620836864

https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1563067641626894336

We all know that it’s about far more than that.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1562768154878623744

[jaichind]

https://www.thelocal.de/20220616/german-energy-crisis-call-for-reduction-in-minimum-temperatures-for-tenants/

"German energy crisis: Call for reduction in minimum temperatures for tenants"

Given the large number of people that rent in Germany, this will be significant. 

Of course, Putin tried to warn them in 2010

https://www.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53174220101126

“I don’t understand; how will you heat your houses? You do not want gas, you do not want to develop nuclear energy. Where will you get your heat from then? From firewood?”
“But even for firewood you will need to go to Siberia, you do not even have wood,” Putin said.

I think Putin still has a lot of firewood in Siberia he can sell to Germany.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germans-looking-firewood-energy-natural-140600963.html

"Germans are looking to firewood for energy as natural gas prices soar"

Putin saw the future in 2010

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.thelocal.de/20220616/german-energy-crisis-call-for-reduction-in-minimum-temperatures-for-tenants/

"German energy crisis: Call for reduction in minimum temperatures for tenants"

Given the large number of people that rent in Germany, this will be significant. 

Of course, Putin tried to warn them in 2010

https://www.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53174220101126

“I don’t understand; how will you heat your houses? You do not want gas, you do not want to develop nuclear energy. Where will you get your heat from then? From firewood?”
“But even for firewood you will need to go to Siberia, you do not even have wood,” Putin said.

I think Putin still has a lot of firewood in Siberia he can sell to Germany.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germans-looking-firewood-energy-natural-140600963.html

"Germans are looking to firewood for energy as natural gas prices soar"

Putin saw the future in 2010

He would know. He's president of lands that constitute the biggest collection of energy-usable materials on the globe...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In the long run, if we are able to freeze Russia out of the energy market completely, then that would be an accomplishment that would surpass the Labors of Hercules.
At the very least, Russia is bound to be able to export and make bucks doing so...something...unless we all pay a huge price, one that we likely (but not certainly) cannot afford.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is not immediately clear how bringing forward the transition away from gas by many decades is in the medium or long-term interests of a polity that is heavily dependent on the export of gas for its economic health and political stability, but of course everything that Mr Putin Who I Do Not Support does is an act of genius, including this disastrous war in which his mighty manly military has been repeatedly humiliated.

[Torie]

The idea that has the most urgency as I see it, is to end the ability of Russia to coerce Europe economically via fossil fuels. Sure, Russia will still earn export income selling it to India and China.

[jaichind]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/scholzs-spd-lawmakers-demand-an-end-to-ukraine-war-negotiations-with-russia/

"Scholz’s SPD lawmakers demand an end to Ukraine war, negotiations with Russia"

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/russian-corporate-profits-jump-25-as-sanctions-hit-muted

"Russian Corporate Profits Jump 25% as Sanctions Hit Muted"

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1563188524324573185

As a means of raising funds, you can rename equipment in Ukraine or have a message written on an outgoing shell, hence the "Superbonker 9000" complete with meme character.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/scholzs-spd-lawmakers-demand-an-end-to-ukraine-war-negotiations-with-russia/

"Scholz’s SPD lawmakers demand an end to Ukraine war, negotiations with Russia"

We can more than make up for it even if Berlin gets cold feet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is not immediately clear how bringing forward the transition away from gas by many decades is in the medium or long-term interests of a polity that is heavily dependent on the export of gas for its economic health and political stability, but of course everything that Mr Putin Who I Do Not Support does is an act of genius, including this disastrous war in which his mighty manly military has been repeatedly humiliated.

Way to miss the point. The world will always be reliant on hydrocarbons for a long time for something - especially in the energy market but also in things in plastics and others. And that is Russia's economic specialty. Putin, as long-time President of Russia, knows this territory well.
Your uncharitable and laughably inaccurate pigeonholing has not gone unnoticed.
To think I once looked up to you...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/russian-corporate-profits-jump-25-as-sanctions-hit-muted

"Russian Corporate Profits Jump 25% as Sanctions Hit Muted"

How are Russian corporations responding to this war in general, you think? In terms of long-term planning...

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/russian-corporate-profits-jump-25-as-sanctions-hit-muted

"Russian Corporate Profits Jump 25% as Sanctions Hit Muted"

How are Russian corporations responding to this war in general, you think? In terms of long-term planning...

I would read this as part of the post-sanction import substitution boom plus outsized energy sector profits.  Iran went through the same thing at least with respect to the import substitution boom.  It does not mean that all the long-term negative impacts on Russia's economy will not take place.  If I were Russia I would focus on smuggling of needed resources.  I would focus on India.  India has a large cash-based informal economy and could be a conduit to help Russia get the necessary imports that it would need with a large markup of course.  Still, corporate Russia being shut out of the collective West for sure is not good for its long-term development even if they can mitigate it somewhat by replacing these links with PRC India and the global South.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-expand-mandatory-evacuations-front-lines-2022-08-26/

"Ukraine to expand mandatory evacuations on front lines"

It seems this will include parts of the Nikolaev and Kharkov regions.  I guess the Russians are getting too close for comfort in those areas.  Of course Ukraine claims that these evacuations are needed due to "heating problems" 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/russian-corporate-profits-jump-25-as-sanctions-hit-muted

"Russian Corporate Profits Jump 25% as Sanctions Hit Muted"

How are Russian corporations responding to this war in general, you think? In terms of long-term planning...

I would read this as part of the post-sanction import substitution boom plus outsized energy sector profits.  Iran went through the same thing at least with respect to the import substitution boom.  It does not mean that all the long-term negative impacts on Russia's economy will not take place.  If I were Russia I would focus on smuggling of needed resources.  I would focus on India.  India has a large cash-based informal economy and could be a conduit to help Russia get the necessary imports that it would need with a large markup of course.  Still, corporate Russia being shut out of the collective West for sure is not good for its long-term development even if they can mitigate it somewhat by replacing these links with PRC India and the global South.

Seems to me that, long-term, things should get worse for Russia over time, while for the collective West, things should be at their very worst this winter and slightly improve over time.
But I'm not too sure...we shall see...

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25/torrent-of-cash-for-ukraine-arms-puts-pentagon-watchdog-on-alert

"Torrent of Cash for Ukraine Arms Puts Pentagon Watchdog on Alert"

O’Donnell said the system had to be tested because Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.” Once equipment gets to Ukraine “I don’t think they have much fidelity” as to where it ends up, he said.

To be fair the Pentagon has no proof that weapons are being sold to the black market but they feel they need to put in a system to track everything given the paper receipt system used in Ukraine.

[jaichind]

This is a lesson for all on believing anything you might sign with Kamala Harris

May 2022
https://seenews.com/news/bulgaria-to-start-receiving-us-lng-deliveries-from-june-govt-784119
"Bulgaria to start receiving US LNG deliveries from June - govt"

In a meeting with Kamala Harris

Bulgaria's government said on Wednesday that it has reached agreement on deliveries on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US at prices lower than the prices for natural gas offered so far by Russia's Gazprom, which halted supplies in late April.

Fast forward to August 2022
https://www.novinite.com/articles/216452/Bulgaria%E2%80%99s+Government+has+Asked+Gazprom+for+Negotiations+and+is+Waiting+for+an+Answer
"Bulgaria’s Government has Asked Gazprom for Negotiations and is Waiting for an Answer"

[jaichind]

Seems to me that, long-term, things should get worse for Russia over time, while for the collective West, things should be at their very worst this winter and slightly improve over time.
But I'm not too sure...we shall see...

I think that is basically correct.  In relative terms, Russia will for sure take a much bigger hit than the collective West.  In absolute terms, Russia is and will continue to inflict larger economic losses on the collective West than it is suffering.  That is scant compensation for the Russian citizen that will for sure have to operate in a non-optimal economic environment.  On the flip side, Russia will for sure survive and this becomes a question of how "core" the Ukraine issue for the Russian state and population is to make all this worthwhile.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems to me that, long-term, things should get worse for Russia over time, while for the collective West, things should be at their very worst this winter and slightly improve over time.
But I'm not too sure...we shall see...

I think that is basically correct.  In relative terms, Russia will for sure take a much bigger hit than the collective West.  In absolute terms, Russia is and will continue to inflict larger economic losses on the collective West than it is suffering.  That is scant compensation for the Russian citizen that will for sure have to operate in a non-optimal economic environment.  On the flip side, Russia will for sure survive and this becomes a question of how "core" the Ukraine issue for the Russian state and population is to make all this worthwhile.

We've already seen Putin boost Russian pensions.
In the long-run, more steps might be needed to keep the people's support.
The Putin playbook, going forward, is obvious...
The collective West will very likely fail to achieve complete success. Precisely how successful they actually are is the million ruble question.