Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[If my soul was made of stone]

The new analysis here is even worse than the armchair general behaviour which assumed fog of war wasn't real. The photo is weird, but Ukraine probably shouldn't worry about a relatively low-profile social media post put about by random pro-Ukrainian civvies.

"Posting cringe will decide Ukraine's international support," just doesn't make much sense when you think about it for more than five minutes. Governments aren't going to act like the NYT's idea of rust belt diner voters.

You could very well be right of course but then you have stuff like this and that UK PM Twitter account has 5.9 M followers.  Seems this one is not a low-profile media post.  Again this picture does not explicitly link the Ukraine cause with the LGBT cause but showing up at the same time certainly does not help the Ukraine cause with the vast socially conservative developing world.

"Followed by Thomas Dowling" implying that whoever this person is you follow them

https://twitter.com/thomaswdowling/status/1538086520627814403

yep that's the jaichind we know and love alright

[bilaps]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

[emailking]

West pushes Russia into its first foreign debt default since 1918

Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago.

Following reports that Moscow had failed to pay about $100 million in interest on two bonds during a 30-day grace period that expired Sunday, the White House said the default showed the power of Western sanctions imposed on Russia since it invaded Ukraine.

"This morning's news around the finding of Russia's default, for the first time in more than a century, situates just how strong the reactions are that the US, along with allies and partners, have taken, as well as how dramatic the impact has been on Russia's economy," a senior administration official said on the sidelines of a G7 summit in Germany.

Russia denied it was in default, saying the payments had been made, in dollars and euros, on May 27 and the money was stuck with Euroclear, a settlement house based in Belgium.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/27/economy/russia-debt-default-sanctions/index.html

[MasterJedi]

Russia has its first bond default coming up, guess artificially propping up the rubble for your western simps didn’t beat the sanctions.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

People in the developing world don't care about this war.

[Sir Mohamed]

The European section of the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA) ranked Ukraine 39th out of 49 European countries in terms of LGBTQ rights... better than Bulgaria (40), Romania (41), Poland (44), Belarus (45), and - obivously - Russia (46).

https://rainbow-europe.org/country-ranking

Somewhat off-topic here, though this is hardly a surprise given religion and church play a bigger role in societies of Eastern Europe compared to Central, Western and Northern Europe. Support for SSM has always been significantly lower in states of the former Warsaw Pact.

[The Dowager Mod]

They must have run out of schools and hospitals to bomb.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1541420721204772864

[Sir Mohamed]

They must have run out of schools and hospitals to bomb.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1541420721204772864

This kind of stuff really makes me angry. With the G7 summit going on, I hope they quickly manage to speed up and increase delivery of heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Take the missiles down before they do harm and start massive counter attacks against Russian facilities that fire them.

[Badger]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

Could you please not use the term "mercenaries" about international volunteers, there is an international definition of what a mercenary is and paid foreign volunteers in a regular army aren't included (if they were the Gurkhas in the British army would also be mercenaries, which would be ridiculous).

Jaichind only understands things in terms of individual pecuniary game, so the concept of anyone putting their lives on the line for things like Freedom, defending against imperialism, Etc is alien to him.

[Badger]

Azovstal is a factory named after the Sea of Azov, not the Azov Battalion.

One of the posters clearly has a picture of the symbol of the Azov Battalion before they, of course, changed it to avoid the charge of being Nazi.

I had noticed that and edited my post accordingly. It's odd seeing a rainbow flag next to that patch, to say the least.

It's also quite possible that the person is not fully informed like we political Geeks and mistakenly believes the Azov Battalion they've heard something about on the news was actually the Defenders of the steel plant.

[Badger]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

Could you please not use the term "mercenaries" about international volunteers, there is an international definition of what a mercenary is and paid foreign volunteers in a regular army aren't included (if they were the Gurkhas in the British army would also be mercenaries, which would be ridiculous).

That is fair feedback.  I do not know how these units are being paid but in the meantime, a more neutral terminology would make sense although I never viewed the word mercenary as negative.  Was is a business and there are professional warriors are getting a honest days work for pay. 

Yes, killing people for financial gain is obviously a legit line of work. That assessment is not the least bit chilling at all.

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

Watching our resident Putin apologist / cheerleader being so butthurt over the reality that Ukraine is still very much in a fight truly has made my morning.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Russia's repeated f[inks]ery in Ukraine allows Azov to pretend to be the brave and determined defenders of the nation, vastly increasing their sympathy, support, and number of recruits even among those who reject their ideology. It's particularly noteworthy that the Azov Battalion didn't even exist until 2014, when Russia siezed Crimea and pro-Russian forces partially took Donbas.

This dynamic is very similar to how Western military interventions to defeat Islamist insurgencies and militant groups often do succeed in killing a lot of their members and weakening them for a time, but in the long term just end up making those groups more popular and entrenched.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

Watching our resident Putin apologist / cheerleader being so butthurt over the reality that Ukraine is still very much in a fight truly has made my morning.

Lol. If you say so.

[jaichind]

People in the developing world don't care about this war.

They do and they don't.  Reading and watching Indian media (both English and Hindi) they do cover the the war especially when the collective West asks India help them with sanctioning of Russia.  The media and social media response has been getting more and more pro-Russia mostly due to perceived hypocrisy of the West.  A lot of things they say can be summed up by (without mentioning parties but instead ideologies of the USA establishment or using this picture which is a purely USA domestic social media image)  

[jaichind]

It's also quite possible that the person is not fully informed like we political Geeks and mistakenly believes the Azov Battalion they've heard something about on the news was actually the Defenders of the steel plant.

That is fair and most likely certainly to be true.  In fact that is my point.  The protesters do not know that much about the situation including knowing the background and views of the Azov Brigade but are only protesting because Ukraine is the current "thing."  In a few months they will move on to the next "thing"

[jaichind]

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/ukraine-update-from-june-20-to-june-24

Another NOTO country "demilitarized" by Russia

Czechia has practically exhausted its supplies of weapons with which it could help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala told a press conference in Brussels. He added that more weapons will need to be acquired.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

Watching our resident Putin apologist / cheerleader being so butthurt over the reality that Ukraine is still very much in a fight truly has made my morning.

Lol. If you say so.

It's not a question of anybody "saying so". Russia has had to completely abandon its original war aim (regime change in Kyiv, probably with some sort of endgame of bringing a puppet Ukraine into the Union State and CSTO). The fact that it's having more success at its current, significantly more modest war aims than most people on this forum would like doesn't come even remotely close to mutual exclusivity with the fact that Kyiv and points west are safe from ground assaults to a degree that looked very unlikely to say the least in late February.

[KaiserDave]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

What I'm saying is literally incontrovertibly true.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

People in the developing world don't care about this war.

They do and they don't.  Reading and watching Indian media (both English and Hindi) they do cover the the war especially when the collective West asks India help them with sanctioning of Russia.  The media and social media response has been getting more and more pro-Russia mostly due to perceived hypocrisy of the West.  A lot of things they say can be summed up by (without mentioning parties but instead ideologies of the USA establishment or using this picture which is a purely USA domestic social media image) 

Hypocrites accusing other hypocrites of being hypocrites. Tale as old as time.

Of course it's hypocritical of countries like America and Britain to gevalt about Russian imperialism given our own track records. It is also hypocritical of people in countries like India and Brazil to tacitly support Russian imperialism just because Russia is geopolitically opposed to the countries whose imperialism they personally have suffered from. There's precious little actual, consistent, principled support for antiimperialism, self-determination, or democracy to go around these days.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It's also quite possible that the person is not fully informed like we political Geeks and mistakenly believes the Azov Battalion they've heard something about on the news was actually the Defenders of the steel plant.

That is fair and most likely certainly to be true.  In fact that is my point.  The protesters do not know that much about the situation including knowing the background and views of the Azov Brigade but are only protesting because Ukraine is the current "thing."  In a few months they will move on to the next "thing"

I don't think you need to have a deep and complete understanding of the Ukraine conflict to know that Russia is the aggressor and be against its actions.

It's also possible that a pro-Russian troll or provocateur gave them an Azov sticker telling them that it was the "Ukrainian army emblem" or something like that, and then proceeded to take a picture and post it on social media to reinforce the "Ukrainians are Nazis" narrative.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

Watching our resident Putin apologist / cheerleader being so butthurt over the reality that Ukraine is still very much in a fight truly has made my morning.

Lol. If you say so.

It's not a question of anybody "saying so". Russia has had to completely abandon its original war aim (regime change in Kyiv, probably with some sort of endgame of bringing a puppet Ukraine into the Union State and CSTO). The fact that it's having more success at its current, significantly more modest war aims than most people on this forum would like doesn't come even remotely close to mutual exclusivity with the fact that Kyiv and points west are safe from ground assaults to a degree that looked very unlikely to say the least in late February.

Well, you are responding to an argument I never made. If you look at the tweet I was responding to, it's pretty clear that I am talking about Severodonetsk at generaly this 2nd phase of operation. I'm not arguing against initial phase being a failure even though there were some success east and south.

[bilaps]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

It's not. Only in Mariupol there were at least 1000 Azov fighters. And their influence on government is far greater than it's admitted numbers of personel.

What I'm saying is literally incontrovertibly true.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's not. Only in Mariupol there were at least 1000 Azov fighters. And their influence on government is far greater than it's admitted numbers of personel.

*its

*personnel