Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

So another Russian "goodwill gesture" then. Strange these have all tended to be retreating/giving up territory, but I'm sure that is a complete coincidence

[Hindsight was 2020]

Snip

“Interesting that people think I’m a Russian supporting douche based off of a few posts *proceeds to write a long winded Russian supporting douche paragraph*”

Seems we judged you pretty well from your prior posts

[jaichind]

So another Russian "goodwill gesture" then. Strange these have all tended to be retreating/giving up territory, but I'm sure that is a complete coincidence

Yeah, this "we let them win" line is pretty sad and counterproductive.  They should just say "we do not think the value of the island is worth the cost of investing resources that can be more productively invested elsewhere" which would be pretty close to the truth anyway.

[bilaps]

Snip

“Interesting that people think I’m a Russian supporting douche based off of a few posts *proceeds to write a long winded Russian supporting douche paragraph*”

Seems we judged you pretty well from your prior posts

To be honest I wouldn't gife a flying f as to how you judged me

[Sir Mohamed]

So another Russian "goodwill gesture" then. Strange these have all tended to be retreating/giving up territory, but I'm sure that is a complete coincidence

According to a recent statement by Putin, "everything goes according to the plan". Yup, sure.

[Person Man]

So another Russian "goodwill gesture" then. Strange these have all tended to be retreating/giving up territory, but I'm sure that is a complete coincidence

Yeah, this "we let them win" line is pretty sad and counterproductive.  They should just say "we do not think the value of the island is worth the cost of investing resources that can be more productively invested elsewhere" which would be pretty close to the truth anyway.

People like you would have felt listened to with a "sunk cost" argument. Goes for any banker.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1542220135305564160
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1542224573873152001
Sanctions work and the Russian economy is staring at the abyss. For our orc bootlickers in this thread, the source is official Russian government data, even they admit that they are ****ed :")

[The Dowager Mod]

"We didn't want your stinky little island anyway!" lol
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1542555873020522496

[Person Man]

"We didn't want your stinky little island anyway!" lol
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1542555873020522496

TFW you are trying to save face when you are a weak bitch. As explained earlier, they can’t even do that right.

[Badger]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

His usual source. That is, pulling stuff out of his ass.

How many people do you think dies from direct cruise missile strike on a shopping mall with 1000+ people inside you smartass?

WTF does this even mean?

Learn to read. If there were 1000+ people in a mall and it was hit by a direct cruise missile strike how many people should be dead? And how many it is reported? Or maybe just maybe Ukrainians lied that the mall was hit directly, not the factory behind so the fire spreaded or maybe just maybe there weren't 1000 people inside. Which one is it? And why is Ukraine spreading lies about killed civilians? Maybe they need those headlines keep going in the western media so they could get more weapons?

So basically writing the death of God knows how many people from a Russian cruise missile strike on a civilian Target as basically fake news propaganda.

This is utterly appalling even for you.

[Badger]

Supporting a right to conquest is a valid position to take, no one should be banned for it.

" no one on this form has denounced fascism more than I!"

[NOVA Green]

"We didn't want your stinky little island anyway!" lol
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1542555873020522496

On that note anybody trying to claim here or elsewhere that this was not a significant positive development for Ukraine, might consider taking a look at this thread...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1542457948944973827

[bilaps]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZipBAP_nk

This sky news report actualy shows majority of people from Lysychansk who reamined in the city are pro russian

[jaichind]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZipBAP_nk

This sky news report actualy shows majority of people from Lysychansk who reamined in the city are pro russian

This is the France 24 version from a few days ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcQJJIvakwo

[NOVA Green]

Another good read on recent developments on Snake Island courtesy of The Warzone:

Limited quotes below, but totally non-paywalled website...

...

Meanwhile, the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said that the Russian troops had departed only after bombardment from Kyiv’s troops and pointed to the effectiveness of the Ukrainian-made 2S22 Bohdana 155mm-caliber howitzer in this campaign. At the same time, Snake Island is at the very edge of the range of many extended-range 155mm shells, raising the question of what type of ammunition was being used. There have been reports that Ukraine has or is about to get Excalibur extended-range guided shells, which would have the range, but there is no indication that this would work with Bohdana...

Considering the limited numbers of Bohdana guns available (potentially only one system), it is certain that other artillery would have been used in the recent bombardment. This could include the new M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and precision-guided 227mm M30/M31 rockets supplied by the United States. We don’t know if any M142s have been in action against Snake Island already, but they would have the range necessary to strike targets there, something The War Zone has noted would be a prime use of these systems.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-forces-have-finally-been-driven-from-snake-island

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Scholz seems to have hinted he will still veto exports of certain weapons:

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1542500097404985345

[jaichind]

I am confused and disagree with the Ukrainian strategy of keeping their best-trained units in the Donetsk and Luhansk fronts and having them hold out to the point where they are taking significant losses and risks of encirclement.

It would seem to me that at some stage Ukraine should hope for the Russian offensive to exhaust themselves and then go on the counterattack themselves.  But for that to be viable Ukraine will need to recreate its armed forces with conscripts and build around a nucleus of well-trained men and more importantly officers.  If so pulling these units out when the battle is turning against them would be the wise move.   The counterargument is that the Donetsk and Luhansk fronts are very well fortified and the Ukrainian unites and maximize Russian losses by having the best Ukrainian unites in the best-foritifed defenses.    The Ukrainian reluctance to pull out of defensive positions until the last minute seems to indicate this is their motivation.  But for this to work would mean that Ukraine feels that Russian offensive power due to attrition is getting close to the breaking point.  Where Ukraine has good reasons to believe this then I think the Ukrainian approach is correct.  If not then I think they are making a mistake by trading off future benefits for short-term benefits. 

Also if Ukraine is counting on Western weapons to compensate for losses of trained men and officers I suspect the benefits of such weapons are going to be more limited than they think.  This is not a knock on these Western weapons but more about the logical implications of these new weapons systems.  In WWII, due to German successes before and in the early part of the war the Germans had a bonanza of solid Czech and French (and in some cases Polish) military equipment.  On paper, this looked really good for Germany.  But in practice having such a diversity of weapons it had to support created a logistical nightmare for Germany from 1941-1943 given the different types of ammunicton and spare parts they had to support.  And in addition that the military doctrines these weapons were based on were different than German military doctrine which made it hard for the German units to use these foreign pieces of equipment.  Just like most things in life, for military hardware, diversity is not a strength and for sure a weakness as the Germans discovered in WWII.

[Woody]

River crossing to the north of Lysychansk after Ukrainians abandoned Pryvillya, clashes in Kherson oblast.
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1542659408173449216

[jaichind]

https://www.rappler.com/business/russia-nord-stream-pipeline-repair-europe-worried-running-short-gas/

"Running short of gas: Russia’s pipeline repair has Europe worried"

It seems Nord Steam will be completely shut down from July 11 to July 21 for repairs.  It seems Putin is now trolling the EU.  If only Nord Stream II was up and running then perhaps Germany can avoid another gas crisis.

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-pull-off-humongous-prisoner-swap-fierce-battles-continue-1720446

"Russia, Ukraine Pull Off Humongous Prisoner Swap as Fierce Battles Continue"

Russia and Ukraine did a 144-person 1-for-1 prison swap.  47 out of the 144 Ukraine got back are from the Azov Brigade.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As far as I know, these are only in active service with Russian reservists behind the frontlines and LDPR militia:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1542871757719232512
Edit: these tanks are generally much more vulnerable to being destroyed than any others we've seen Russia deploy, but they don't keep ammo in the turret, which apparently makes 'tank decapitation' less likely. This might mean crew have a better chance of surviving in the event their tank is destroyed, although this could be offset by T-62s requiring an extra operator. In this instance, at least three of the four survive.

Edit 2: Oryx and some others have said this was a T-80 tank, not a T-62.

[jaichind]

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-wests-self-defeating-sanctions/

Just to be clear.  The sanctions have hurt Russia's economy badly and the bite will get worse 3-5 years down the line.  But in the medium run and on a marginal basis Russia's hurt is less than the collective West.  Namely, even if the war ends today and the collective West ends the sanctions on Russia the economic blow Russia took will not be undone.  And going forward the marginal impact on Russia is in absolute terms less than the blowback on the collective West is taking.  So for a period of time, time will be on Russia's side from an economic war point of view. 

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/ecb-to-activate-first-line-of-defense-in-bond-market-on-friday

"ECB to Activate First Line of Defense in Bond Market on Friday"

Sigh.  So ECB which was supposed to end its current QE and raise rates to stop the inflation crisis is going to start another QE before even the current QE is wound up.  The sanctions blowback continues. I am not sure how long this can hold back the crisis.

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3183732/indonesian-president-joko-widodo-says-he-gave-vladimir

"Indonesian President Joko Widodo says he gave Vladimir Putin message from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky"

[Virginiá]

Also if Ukraine is counting on Western weapons to compensate for losses of trained men and officers I suspect the benefits of such weapons are going to be more limited than they think.  This is not a knock on these Western weapons but more about the logical implications of these new weapons systems.  In WWII, due to German successes before and in the early part of the war the Germans had a bonanza of solid Czech and French (and in some cases Polish) military equipment.  On paper, this looked really good for Germany.  But in practice having such a diversity of weapons it had to support created a logistical nightmare for Germany from 1941-1943 given the different types of ammunicton and spare parts they had to support.  And in addition that the military doctrines these weapons were based on were different than German military doctrine which made it hard for the German units to use these foreign pieces of equipment.  Just like most things in life, for military hardware, diversity is not a strength and for sure a weakness as the Germans discovered in WWII.

I've been thinking about that myself for a while now. They have a veritable smorgasbord of weapon systems in use right now. However, in terms of artillery and MLRS (rocket launch systems), the diversity isn't too bad. From a link another poster here shared a while ago:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

There's been a lot of systems delivered but definitely a concentration of certain systems:

Of the 200 towed artillery, roughly 67% are M777 howitzers. (Some countries didn't specify how many units were sent for other models, and Czech didn't specify at all what it was sending. So there is some ambiguity here obviously).

I think the self-propelled artillery is probably one of the worst. Over 203+ units donated or purchased and 7 different models. 8 if you consider the M109 has two different variants being donated. No model makes up a dominant share save for maybe the Krab, except that the bulk of those Ukraine is receiving probably won't happen for a while since it was a purchase order that needs to be built (afaik).

The MLRS weapons are basically all either older Soviet models Ukraine has supplies for or are American-made M270 / HIMARS, of which they currently only have a handful although they are getting more and probably more still once enough operators are trained.

Even as far as vehicles go, there definitely seems to be an abundance of American-made Humvees and M113 APCs. Those dominate the stock they've received so far for their respective categories (or are slated to receive).

So some of this diversity is marginal only and the Ukrainian effort wouldn't be harmed too much if, for instance, they lost the ability to continue fielding Zuzana self-propelled howitzer due to maintenance issues. They have a large & growing number of other units to rely on.

Overall I think it could be worse, and a lot of the smaller donations from many western countries are probably maxed out due to their small available stocks, so future deliveries will probably consist of a smaller number of more readily available weapon systems.