Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Useful thread here:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1541806128874803200

A bit of wishful thinking from Kofman and a bit of just spread out propaganda. He talks about Ukrainian gains as basicaly equal to Russians and his proof is once again fake twitter Kherson offensive which stalled even on twitter. He hopes that Russians would not be able to go after Slavyansk and Kramatorsk and his basing that on Russian losses so far in the war, yet Ukrainian losses, well... This kind of analysis any observer of a conflict could do.

You could well be right.
We shall see. The war's outcome is not yet set.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1541749627283701760

This is being widely reported as a Kh-22 missile strike. A couple of weeks ago, Russia released a video showing use of the Kh-22 in Ukraine for the first time. It is though to be the oldest cruise missile still in Russian service, with production beginning in the '60s and ending in the '80s. It is an anti-ship missile with no dedicated land-attack capability - which means it's likely to be quite inaccurate if it's not used against a ship - but a very large warhead which partially compensates.

The inaccuracy is important here. There is a vehicle repair plant nearby, part of which was hit by some missiles around the same time. This site hadn't repaired military vehicles since the '80s, but I would be completely unsurprised if that changed with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It is entirely possible the shopping mall casualties are not the result of a deliberate terror attack but of an incredibly inaccurate attempt to destroy nearby infrastructure - and this would make the most sense given Russia's depleting missile inventory.

Attacks like this one could become more likely if Russia leans more heavily upon its remaining stock of Kh-22s. Kofman pointed out in a recent podcast that there have been a number of missile strikes around a particular plant in Kyiv which can manufacture components for guided munitions. For a couple of weeks, none have actually hit this plant, but they have hit the civilian infrastructure around it; it arguably suits both Russia and Ukraine to pretend that the targets were civilian infrastructure all along ("our missiles are accurate and the civilians were all Nazis"/"this was a terror attack").

America spent billions on navigation systems for Tomahawks to ensure that such things do not happen. Russia does not care.

As long as it hits within a mile radius they'll call it mission accomplished. The Kh-22 is so old that it's unable to use satellite navigation and is powered by the same type of toxic fuel as German WWII rockets. It's not even designed to be used on land unless it is carrying a nuclear warhead! To utilize highly imprecise weapons like that on civilian areas is a war crime.

The primary reason for investing in PGMs has historically been efficacy, not humanitarianism. Russia would prefer their weaponry to be effective. I agree they launched this attack with almost or zero regard for civilian casualties, but they were probably hoping to do more damage to the plant rather than the mall.

Their tactics have not always been smart and this attack may constitute a war crime, but it should be considered a result of weakness and disregard for human life rather than moustache-twirling villainy. It is important to understand these things as they are, rather than assuming Russian missile attacks are primarily meant to inflict terror; terror is inflicted anyway if the local factory gets blown up. If the wrong people made that incorrect assumption, they might leave valuable targets vulnerable to future missile attacks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/AllDigitsbiz/status/1541754513769504769?t=lAZBjC90WgIimIM7-W...

[urutzizu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

And, as predicted, Turkey approves NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. And even in time for Madrid summit. Despite the media narrative at end of the day there is a fundamental difference between a regime like Hungary which is a genuine admirer and collaborator of the Russian regime, and Turkey which has legitimate national interest, but fundamentally no sympathy for Russia.

According to Turkish media these are the concession Turkey recieved:
- Sweden/Finland will lift its arms embargo
- Both will support Turkey on PKK, stop support to YPG
- They will amend their laws on terrorism
- They will share Intel with each other
- They will extradite terror suspects
- Finland and Sweden will support Turkey’s participation to EU’s Pesko
- Turkey, Finland and Sweden will establish a permanent joint mechanism to consult on justice, security and intelligence

(of course this is likely to be a bit exaggerated)

Nothing about US F-16 sale, but likely discussed behind the scenes in the Biden phone call with Erdogan this morning.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313
And, as predicted, Turkey approves NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. And even in time for Madrid summit. Despite the media narrative at end of the day there is a fundamental difference between a regime like Hungary which is a genuine admirer and collaborator of the Russian regime, and Turkey which has legitimate national interest, but fundamentally no sympathy for Russia.

According to Turkish media these are the concession Turkey recieved:
- Sweden/Finland will lift its arms embargo
- Both will support Turkey on PKK, stop support to YPG
- They will amend their laws on terrorism
- They will share Intel with each other
- They will extradite terror suspects
- Finland and Sweden will support Turkey’s participation to EU’s Pesko
- Turkey, Finland and Sweden will establish a permanent joint mechanism to consult on justice, security and intelligence

(of course this is likely to be a bit exaggerated)

Nothing about US F-16 sale, but likely discussed behind the scenes in the Biden phone call with Erdogan this morning.

Here is the joint memorandum:

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1541856195257966592
The bolded part, which would have been the most significant concession, looks to have been overstated. It seems to boil down to "We'll try to extradite them in accordance with the preexisting rules," but the rules will probably prevent these extraditions on human rights grounds.

The rest marries up to reality.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1541840956902735873?s=20&t=4uJ4TRdJw...

[bilaps]

It's not a shadow mobilization if it's in Donetsk. General mobilization is already declared there

[KaiserDave]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

It's not. Only in Mariupol there were at least 1000 Azov fighters. And their influence on government is far greater than it's admitted numbers of personel.

What I'm saying is literally incontrovertibly true.

You are entirely wrong. Just spreading a complete fiction.

Prove me wrong then.

I don't go around proving scientifically that dragons don't exist or that the moon isn't made of cheese. I try not to waste my time, but I am clearly failing that by even responding to someone as foolish as you.

[KaiserDave]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

[2952-0-0]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

Could you please not use the term "mercenaries" about international volunteers, there is an international definition of what a mercenary is and paid foreign volunteers in a regular army aren't included (if they were the Gurkhas in the British army would also be mercenaries, which would be ridiculous).

That is fair feedback.  I do not know how these units are being paid but in the meantime, a more neutral terminology would make sense although I never viewed the word mercenary as negative.  Was is a business and there are professional warriors are getting a honest days work for pay. 

Of course, you would have gladly served Wang Jingwei's regime back in the day, since its forces enjoyed somewhat better pay and supplies than those of the Chongqing government.

[bilaps]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1541603554581954560

This another act of Russian is terrorism by killing dozens of Ukrainian civilians intentionally. Russia is no different from ISIS or Al Qaeda.

No no no no no! Ukraine and Russia are totally moral equivalents! Bilups said so and he's totally not apologist hack for Putin.

Jaichind of course was deeply personally moved and hurt by this tragedy. He had financial holdings in that mall. Stay strong my Mammonesque friend.

You are quoting  fake news

Imagine being such a low energy low effort poster to use the term fake news unironically.

[Badger]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

His usual source. That is, pulling stuff out of his ass.

[bilaps]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

His usual source. That is, pulling stuff out of his ass.

How many people do you think dies from direct cruise missile strike on a shopping mall with 1000+ people inside you smartass?

[bilaps]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

Because those numbers are outdated. And of course Ukraine will try to minimize them. Number of Azov fighters only in Mariupol was in that range. And on what is based assumption that they are insignificant with few hundred fighters? Because that was the original claim. Also, Azov is not only far right formation in Ukraine

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

Because those numbers are outdated. And of course Ukraine will try to minimize them. Number of Azov fighters only in Mariupol was in that range. And on what is based assumption that they are insignificant with few hundred fighters? Because that was the original claim. Also, Azov is not only far right formation in Ukraine

So, in other words, vibes.

Ukraine and Russia both have plenty of far-right people and groups fighting for them, as does every other country under the sun. Military life attracts right-wing authoritarian personalities due to its controlled, hierarchical nature and emphasis on passing responsibility up the chain of command. Why in the world is this news?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And in a situation where there's a 'nation under arms to preserve the nation's existence' phenomenon going on - as there absolutely is in Ukraine at present - then, obviously, the bulk of the political spectrum is going to be represented in the armed forces in one way or another. It's really quite dishonest to pretend otherwise.

[Badger]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

His usual source. That is, pulling stuff out of his ass.

How many people do you think dies from direct cruise missile strike on a shopping mall with 1000+ people inside you smartass?

WTF does this even mean?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, well, I see that it was entirely reasonable and justified to stay away from this thread recently.


But do you know what the most commonly used argument by Putin trolls in Germany is right now? "Ukraine is a country with massive corruption problems !" Yeah sure, that totally justifies violating international law, invading another country, and use raping their women as a tactic of war, aside from the fact that Ukraine's rank on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index was never really brought up by Putin as a casus belli in the first place (probably because Russia's rank on the Corruption Perceptions Index is, of course, worse).

[The Dowager Mod]

Ah, well, I see that it was entirely reasonable and justified to stay away from this thread recently.


But do you know what the most commonly used argument by Putin trolls in Germany is right now? "Ukraine is a country with massive corruption problems !" Yeah sure, that totally justifies violating international law, invading another country, and use raping their women as a tactic of war, aside from the fact that Ukraine's rank on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index was never really brought up by Putin as a casus belli in the first place (probably because Russia's rank on the Corruption Perceptions Index is, of course, worse).

The reason Russia's military is so laughably inept is because of corruption and cronyism.

[bilaps]

Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

Even wikipedia says Azov has between 900 and 2500 members and it's probably vastly undercounting them. Not to mention their influence which if wasn't clear before to the neutral observer, it was in plain sight during Mariupol siege. Insignificant militia with such airtime, literaly defending one of the biggest cities in the country.

What are you basing this on?

His usual source. That is, pulling stuff out of his ass.

How many people do you think dies from direct cruise missile strike on a shopping mall with 1000+ people inside you smartass?

WTF does this even mean?

Learn to read. If there were 1000+ people in a mall and it was hit by a direct cruise missile strike how many people should be dead? And how many it is reported? Or maybe just maybe Ukrainians lied that the mall was hit directly, not the factory behind so the fire spreaded or maybe just maybe there weren't 1000 people inside. Which one is it? And why is Ukraine spreading lies about killed civilians? Maybe they need those headlines keep going in the western media so they could get more weapons?

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/175ef927-efa2-439e-8ede-1dfc7edd23a6

"UK plans to cut pipelines to EU if Russia gas crisis intensifies"

Such great NATO and anti-Russia united front solidarity.  In the end, it is and always be everyone for themselves and their own self-interests as it should be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Haughtyness is not something anyone in this thread ought to display, and we shall keep our eyes open to various possibilities and keep in mind that fog of war is real and the need for narrative control for both sides in this war might make it hard to figure out what is actually going on. I for one welcome bilaps bringing his perspective here. If our perspective is vigorous enough, it should withstand it.
This thread ought to be a place where we ponder and look at things from the outside as observers of the biggest hot conflict on European soil in the 21st century to date.

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-putin-woman-war-ukraine-wouldnt-invade-2022-6?amp

"Boris Johnson said Putin wouldn't have started the war in Ukraine if he were a woman"

Amm ... Novorossiya which is pretty much the territory where the fighting is taking place right now was conquered and annexed into Tsarist Russia during the reign of Catherine the Great as was Crimea.