Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Ukrainians gradually withdrew from the city since last week, some still left. The oil refinery to the west of the city is still contested as of now/possibly under Russian control (RU sources just now).. Chechens claiming they have entered Lysychansk.

So 2 possibilities:
1) It's a lie
2) Other Russian or Separatist units already took Lysychansk (or part of it) and did the fighting, and Kadyrov's men have arrived to film TikTok and Telegram videos and claim credit.

Most likely.

[urutzizu]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3183537/us-trade-sanctions-china-attempt-frighten-firms-amid-soaring

US implements sanctions against 5 Chinese companies for technology transfer to Russia. The companies in question (Connec Electronic, King Pai Technology, Sinno Electronics, Winninc Electronic and World Jetta (HK) Logistics) are relatively minor, and these are technically not secondary sanctions as is commonly understood, but sanctions for violating existing export controls against Russia, which function extraterritorially. Nonetheless a clear signal. A number of companies from other countries such as the UK, Singapore and Vietnam but many with a presence in China were also sanctioned.

I have posted this before, but from what I have seen the vast majority of Chinese companies seem very reluctant to do anything with Russia that might make them vulnerable to sanctions. Sanctions-busting seems to be much more going on through countries like Belarus, UAE and through Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

[NYDem]

Supporting a right to conquest is a valid position to take, no one should be banned for it.

It really is impressive that you manage to take the worst position on every issue imaginable.

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3183537/us-trade-sanctions-china-attempt-frighten-firms-amid-soaring

US implements sanctions against 5 Chinese companies for technology transfer to Russia. The companies in question (Connec Electronic, King Pai Technology, Sinno Electronics, Winninc Electronic and World Jetta (HK) Logistics) are relatively minor, and these are technically not secondary sanctions as is commonly understood, but sanctions for violating existing export controls against Russia, which function extraterritorially. Nonetheless a clear signal. A number of companies from other countries such as the UK, Singapore and Vietnam but many with a presence in China were also sanctioned.

I have posted this before, but from what I have seen the vast majority of Chinese companies seem very reluctant to do anything with Russia that might make them vulnerable to sanctions. Sanctions-busting seems to be much more going on through countries like Belarus, UAE and through Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

I think it is more: The PRC ecosystem has two types of enterprises.  One type is very focused on external economic integration with the outside world including the West.  These firms for sure will do everything possible to avoid sanctions. The other type are focused on the domestic economy and has very little to do with trade with the West. These firms are being encouraged to expand their economic links with Russia to take advantage of the economic vacuum there due to the pullout of Western firms.  These firms are not as experienced in working with the Russians but they will do so and grow their economic links with Russia.

[jaichind]

There is clearly a risk of Lysychansk being cut off.  It will be interesting to see if the Ukrainian unit can manage to cut their way out given the artillery cover the Russians have in the area.  I suspect they will make their moves in the night.

[President Johnson]

This is why the West just has to stay course and increase delivery of weaponry to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1542221652917997569

[Woody]

Estimate of the frontline at the current moment for a better view of what is going on (the yellow area marked at the top, Pryvillya, northwest of Lysychansk, has been abandonded by UA now):

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1542239120797335552?cxt=HHwWgICwneWTkecqA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1542239140372160517?cxt=HHwWioCxifeUkecqA...

[Woody]

There is clearly a risk of Lysychansk being cut off.  It will be interesting to see if the Ukrainian unit can manage to cut their way out given the artillery cover the Russians have in the area.  I suspect they will make their moves in the night.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1542239153433239557

[jaichind]

This is why the West just has to stay course and increase delivery of weaponry to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1542221652917997569

If that is Putin's goal then he is a fool because he is setting up a goal that is most likely not achievable and will cost him dearly if he tries.  He is much better off going for some more limited but significant gains and then letting the Ukrainians counterattack and wear the Ukrainians down by a wall of artillery fire.

[Storr]

Have a meme:

https://twitter.com/iAmTheWarax/status/1541856072377536515?s=20&t=UH_OCMtfP8...

[Storr]

This also a factor in why the Minsk agreements weren't followed through with:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1542125574063284231?s=20&t=UH_OCMtfP8Lc...

[bilaps]

Interesting how people think they know you based on a few posts online.

I don't support war of conquest, I support in principle territorial integrity of any sovereign country. Only problem is in unipolar world one county, USA, gets to decide which countries can gain independence and which don't. So when we are talking about Kosovo unilateraly gaining independence it's ok, but with let's say Catalonia in Spain or DNR in Ukraine not so much.

It's a year 2022 and some people honestly believe in morale in international politics. People really think that countries and their leaders aren't guided by pure self interest for them personally or for their countries. So when Putin decides to stop NATO expansion on their own borders, it's pure evil, yet expansion itself is democracy at work. Because coup in 2014 is democracy probably. And when some people decide they don't want to live in this US "democracy" in Ukraine, it doesn't matter because they have no right for independence.

Breaking news: Putin invaded Ukraine for Russia's and his own interests and USA is doing everything in Ukraine not for the sake of Ukrainian people but for their own interest. And yes, they will fight till the last Ukrainian, because their own wars in the last decades went so horribly wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, because this war has gone so well for the much vaunted Russian military and the general credibility of the Russian state.

[KaiserDave]

Interesting how people think they know you based on a few posts online.

I don't support war of conquest, I support in principle territorial integrity of any sovereign country. Only problem is in unipolar world one county, USA, gets to decide which countries can gain independence and which don't. So when we are talking about Kosovo unilateraly gaining independence it's ok, but with let's say Catalonia in Spain or DNR in Ukraine not so much.

It's a year 2022 and some people honestly believe in morale in international politics. People really think that countries and their leaders aren't guided by pure self interest for them personally or for their countries. So when Putin decides to stop NATO expansion on their own borders, it's pure evil, yet expansion itself is democracy at work. Because coup in 2014 is democracy probably. And when some people decide they don't want to live in this US "democracy" in Ukraine, it doesn't matter because they have no right for independence.

Breaking news: Putin invaded Ukraine for Russia's and his own interests and USA is doing everything in Ukraine not for the sake of Ukrainian people but for their own interest. And yes, they will fight till the last Ukrainian, because their own wars in the last decades went so horribly wrong.

Epic cope

[nicholas.slaydon]

Interesting how people think they know you based on a few posts online.

I don't support war of conquest, I support in principle territorial integrity of any sovereign country. Only problem is in unipolar world one county, USA, gets to decide which countries can gain independence and which don't. So when we are talking about Kosovo unilateraly gaining independence it's ok, but with let's say Catalonia in Spain or DNR in Ukraine not so much.

It's a year 2022 and some people honestly believe in morale in international politics. People really think that countries and their leaders aren't guided by pure self interest for them personally or for their countries. So when Putin decides to stop NATO expansion on their own borders, it's pure evil, yet expansion itself is democracy at work. Because coup in 2014 is democracy probably. And when some people decide they don't want to live in this US "democracy" in Ukraine, it doesn't matter because they have no right for independence.

Breaking news: Putin invaded Ukraine for Russia's and his own interests and USA is doing everything in Ukraine not for the sake of Ukrainian people but for their own interest. And yes, they will fight till the last Ukrainian, because their own wars in the last decades went so horribly wrong.

The only problem with this is that it is entirely wrong. First off, Kosovo is not relevant to the Ukraine case in any way. Kosovo needed to obtain independence due to the fact that the Serbian government was attempting ethnic cleansing and genocide in Kosovo, which prompted the need for independence to defend the Kosovar Albanians as a people against the genocidal Serbs who had already committed acts of genocide against the Bosnians. Catalonia can make no such claim to need independence in order to defend the Catalans as a people. There is absolutely no provision in the Spanish Constitution which Catalonia is subject to for any region to secede, and any attempt to secede from Spain would be just as legitimate as a state to try and secede from the United States, which is not at all.
Likewise, clearly Putin did not invade Ukraine in order to stop NATO expansion, as his invasion of Ukraine has only made NATO larger with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Likewise, Putin did not say that he invaded Ukraine in order to stop NATO expansion, but rather states that he invaded because he does not consider Ukraine to be a legitimate country with rights to independence, and made his nonsense claims of denazification of the Ukrainian government, all absurd claims, and notably all have nothing to do NATO, which Ukraine is not a member of.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting how people think they know you based on a few posts online.

I don't support war of conquest, I support in principle territorial integrity of any sovereign country. Only problem is in unipolar world one county, USA, gets to decide which countries can gain independence and which don't. So when we are talking about Kosovo unilateraly gaining independence it's ok, but with let's say Catalonia in Spain or DNR in Ukraine not so much.

It's a year 2022 and some people honestly believe in morale in international politics. People really think that countries and their leaders aren't guided by pure self interest for them personally or for their countries. So when Putin decides to stop NATO expansion on their own borders, it's pure evil, yet expansion itself is democracy at work. Because coup in 2014 is democracy probably. And when some people decide they don't want to live in this US "democracy" in Ukraine, it doesn't matter because they have no right for independence.

Breaking news: Putin invaded Ukraine for Russia's and his own interests and USA is doing everything in Ukraine not for the sake of Ukrainian people but for their own interest. And yes, they will fight till the last Ukrainian, because their own wars in the last decades went so horribly wrong.

The only problem with this is that it is entirely wrong. First off, Kosovo is not relevant to the Ukraine case in any way. Kosovo needed to obtain independence due to the fact that the Serbian government was attempting ethnic cleansing and genocide in Kosovo, which prompted the need for independence to defend the Kosovar Albanians as a people against the genocidal Serbs who had already committed acts of genocide against the Bosnians. Catalonia can make no such claim to need independence in order to defend the Catalans as a people. There is absolutely no provision in the Spanish Constitution which Catalonia is subject to for any region to secede, and any attempt to secede from Spain would be just as legitimate as a state to try and secede from the United States, which is not at all.
Likewise, clearly Putin did not invade Ukraine in order to stop NATO expansion, as his invasion of Ukraine has only made NATO larger with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Likewise, Putin did not say that he invaded Ukraine in order to stop NATO expansion, but rather states that he invaded because he does not consider Ukraine to be a legitimate country with rights to independence, and made his nonsense claims of denazification of the Ukrainian government, all absurd claims, and notably all have nothing to do NATO, which Ukraine is not a member of.

It does not really matter whether or not if the Kosovo situation is, objectively, comparable to Ukraine. Objectivity does not hold any decisive importance in geopolitics 95% of the time, and it's delusional to see otherwise. It's cutthroat, and driven by what can be claimed rather than what is true. What matters most is being able to oblige people into doing things with what you have, and that is a potent tool for those with good intentions. For instance, we obliged the Serbs to stop genociding the Bosniaks.

[bilaps]

Yes, because this war has gone so well for the much vaunted Russian military and the general credibility of the Russian state.

Classic whataboutism. Arguing with the point I never made

[bilaps]

Interesting how people think they know you based on a few posts online.

I don't support war of conquest, I support in principle territorial integrity of any sovereign country. Only problem is in unipolar world one county, USA, gets to decide which countries can gain independence and which don't. So when we are talking about Kosovo unilateraly gaining independence it's ok, but with let's say Catalonia in Spain or DNR in Ukraine not so much.

It's a year 2022 and some people honestly believe in morale in international politics. People really think that countries and their leaders aren't guided by pure self interest for them personally or for their countries. So when Putin decides to stop NATO expansion on their own borders, it's pure evil, yet expansion itself is democracy at work. Because coup in 2014 is democracy probably. And when some people decide they don't want to live in this US "democracy" in Ukraine, it doesn't matter because they have no right for independence.

Breaking news: Putin invaded Ukraine for Russia's and his own interests and USA is doing everything in Ukraine not for the sake of Ukrainian people but for their own interest. And yes, they will fight till the last Ukrainian, because their own wars in the last decades went so horribly wrong.

The only problem with this is that it is entirely wrong. First off, Kosovo is not relevant to the Ukraine case in any way. Kosovo needed to obtain independence due to the fact that the Serbian government was attempting ethnic cleansing and genocide in Kosovo, which prompted the need for independence to defend the Kosovar Albanians as a people against the genocidal Serbs who had already committed acts of genocide against the Bosnians. Catalonia can make no such claim to need independence in order to defend the Catalans as a people. There is absolutely no provision in the Spanish Constitution which Catalonia is subject to for any region to secede, and any attempt to secede from Spain would be just as legitimate as a state to try and secede from the United States, which is not at all.
Likewise, clearly Putin did not invade Ukraine in order to stop NATO expansion, as his invasion of Ukraine has only made NATO larger with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Likewise, Putin did not say that he invaded Ukraine in order to stop NATO expansion, but rather states that he invaded because he does not consider Ukraine to be a legitimate country with rights to independence, and made his nonsense claims of denazification of the Ukrainian government, all absurd claims, and notably all have nothing to do NATO, which Ukraine is not a member of.

This post proves my point. When US decides it can be done, it can be done and some stupid reason will be given. When US says it can't be done then it's international law at stake. So now Putin decided to say f you and your world order and you are all coping.

[Lord Halifax]

Interesting how people think they know you based on a few posts online.

I don't support war of conquest, I support in principle territorial integrity of any sovereign country. Only problem is in unipolar world one county, USA, gets to decide which countries can gain independence and which don't. So when we are talking about Kosovo unilaterally gaining independence it's ok, but with let's say Catalonia in Spain or DNR in Ukraine not so much.

It's a year 2022 and some people honestly believe in morale in international politics. People really think that countries and their leaders aren't guided by pure self interest for them personally or for their countries. So when Putin decides to stop NATO expansion on their own borders, it's pure evil, yet expansion itself is democracy at work. Because coup in 2014 is democracy probably. And when some people decide they don't want to live in this US "democracy" in Ukraine, it doesn't matter because they have no right for independence.

Breaking news: Putin invaded Ukraine for Russia's and his own interests and USA is doing everything in Ukraine not for the sake of Ukrainian people but for their own interest. And yes, they will fight till the last Ukrainian, because their own wars in the last decades went so horribly wrong.

Upholding the principle that a state can't gain territory by conquest is in the self-interest of most states in the world because it would cause chaos (incl. massive refugee waves) and be incredible destructive to the heavily globalized world economy if we allowed wars of conquest. Even setting aside the moral aspect we're to interdependent and interconnected, and modern weaponry is too destructive.

It's a principle that has mostly held up post-WW2, especially if you exclude the decolonization process which was a one-off and polities that weren't fully sovereign like Tibet and Sikkim, then you're down to a small number of exceptions like Israel gaining territory by winning a defensive war and Turkey invading Cyprus in a situation where the excuse of protecting co-nationals against ethnic cleansing was far more credible than in the Donbass. And of course neither of these border changes are recognized by the vast majority of other states.

It's a myth that Euromaidan was a coup and that it was orchestrated by the US, it was a popular uprising and regardless of how you view it didn't change the legitimacy or independence of the Ukrainian state. All this nonsense about Ukraine being an American "puppet" and that it's a "proxy war" because the Ukrainians get weapons from the West is just BS. Ukraine is a sovereign country fighting for itself. The US is the single most powerful country in the world, but it's not in control of its allies and partners (many things would be different in international politics if the US actually had full control of places like Israel, Saudi-Arabia or the EU countries).

The Donbass secession was not the result of a popular uprising in the region, but instigated and controlled by Russia and with brutal repression of any pro-Ukrainian dissent, it's a tactic Russia has used repeatedly and it completely undermines the legitimacy of the breakaway statelets. Russia has never proposed a referendum based on the pre-2014 population and with the two oblasts controlled by UN troops, if they had they might have a point.

It's problematic that the Spanish and American constitutions offer no legitimate way to secede, but at least those countries have democratic ways to offer a referendum on secession and a free public debate. We don't really know what would happen if e.g. American Samoa wanted to reunite with Samoa (they currently have no appetite for that), but it's not like the US would start killing or force out Samoan nationalists, and they'd have some sympathy among the general public. States wouldn't be allowed to secede since they aren't ethnically or nationally defined (Hawaii is a special case, but the Native Hawaiians are a small minority) and the native nations are all enclaves and too poor to manage on their own, but I don't think it's out of the question for territories to secede if a clear majority wanted to.

Catalonia is deeply divided on secession, if the separatists had a solid 60% majority public opposition to Catalan independence in Spain would likely start to soften and a break would be seen as inevitable. Democracies simply process these things differently. You don't really have any cases in the Western world where the vast majority of the population in a region or minority nation want out of a nation state, but are suppressed by force.

[bilaps]

Interesting how people think they know you based on a few posts online.

I don't support war of conquest, I support in principle territorial integrity of any sovereign country. Only problem is in unipolar world one county, USA, gets to decide which countries can gain independence and which don't. So when we are talking about Kosovo unilaterally gaining independence it's ok, but with let's say Catalonia in Spain or DNR in Ukraine not so much.

It's a year 2022 and some people honestly believe in morale in international politics. People really think that countries and their leaders aren't guided by pure self interest for them personally or for their countries. So when Putin decides to stop NATO expansion on their own borders, it's pure evil, yet expansion itself is democracy at work. Because coup in 2014 is democracy probably. And when some people decide they don't want to live in this US "democracy" in Ukraine, it doesn't matter because they have no right for independence.

Breaking news: Putin invaded Ukraine for Russia's and his own interests and USA is doing everything in Ukraine not for the sake of Ukrainian people but for their own interest. And yes, they will fight till the last Ukrainian, because their own wars in the last decades went so horribly wrong.

It's a myth that Euromaidan was a coup and that it was orchestrated by the US, it was a popular uprising and regardless of how you view it didn't change the legitimacy or independence of the Ukrainian state. All this nonsense about Ukraine being an American "puppet" and that it's a "proxy war" because the Ukrainians get weapons from the West is just BS. Ukraine is a sovereign country fighting for itself. The US is the single most powerful country in the world, but it's not in control of its allies and partners (many things would be different in international politics if the US actually had full control of places like Israel, Saudi-Arabia or the EU countries).

The Donbass secession was not the result of a popular uprising in the region, but instigated and controlled by Russia and with brutal repression of any pro-Ukrainian dissent, it's a tactic Russia has used repeatedly and it completely undermines the legitimacy of the breakaway statelets. Russia has never proposed a referendum based on the pre-2014 and with the two oblasts controlled by UN troops, if they had they might have a point.

It's problematic that the Spanish and American constitutions offer no legitimate way to secede, but at least those countries have democratic ways to offer a referendum on secession and a free public debate. We don't really know what would happen if e.g. West Samoa wanted to reunite with Samoa (they currently have no appetite for that), but it's not like the US would start killing or force out Samoan nationalists, and they'd have some sympathy among the general public. States wouldn't be allowed to secede since they aren't ethnically or nationally defined (Hawaii is a special case, but the Native Hawaiians are a small minority) and the native nations are all enclaves and too poor to manage on their own, but I don't think it's out of the question for territories to secede if a clear majority wanted to.

Catalonia is deeply divided on secession, if the separatist had a solid 60% majority public opposition to Catalan independence in Spain would likely start to soften and a break would be seen as inevitable. Democracies simply process these things differently. You don't really have any cases in the Western world where the vast majority of the population in a region or minority nation want out of a nation state, but are suppressed by force.

Hm... So, the coup was a myth and Donbas wasn't secession because of Russia's role, yet in a coup American support was mythic. Suuuure. But the biggest thing is that the coup didn't change legitimacy of Ukraine. That's interesting opinion. How did the people in the East and Crimea felt about the coup?

Of course it's a proxy war, it's not only support in weapons, it's inteliigence in real time, using of satelites etc.

Last time I checked ELECTED parliament of Catalonia has voted for independence. Before it was brutally supressed of course.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

After several days of attacks on Snake Island and the probable destruction of at least one Pantsir AA system deployed there via floating crane, RuMOD admits its soldiers have finally left Snake Island.
 
They claim to have done this "as a gesture of goodwill" and to ensure that Ukraine could not blame them for the food/blockade crisis. Here's to more "gestures!"

[bilaps]

After several days of attacks on Snake Island and the probable destruction of at least one Pantsir AA system deployed there via floating crane, RuMOD admits its soldiers have finally left Snake Island.
 
They claim to have done this "as a gesture of goodwill" and to ensure that Ukraine could not blame them for the food/blockade crisis. Here's to more "gestures!"

Lol at gesture of good will. Position there is unsustainable for Russians and Ukrainians, I would be surprised if Ukrainians would take the island, it's just not that important and the island is small without much cover.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

After several days of attacks on Snake Island and the probable destruction of at least one Pantsir AA system deployed there via floating crane, RuMOD admits its soldiers have finally left Snake Island.
 
They claim to have done this "as a gesture of goodwill" and to ensure that Ukraine could not blame them for the food/blockade crisis. Here's to more "gestures!"

Lol at gesture of good will. Position there is unsustainable for Russians and Ukrainians, I would be surprised if Ukrainians would take the island, it's just not that important and the island is small without much cover.

The truth is that both sides would benefit from the Snake Island battle not happening. It's a sink of men and resources, an utter sideshow. It's nice to have, but not worth the cost of continuing to fight over it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

After several days of attacks on Snake Island and the probable destruction of at least one Pantsir AA system deployed there via floating crane, RuMOD admits its soldiers have finally left Snake Island.
 
They claim to have done this "as a gesture of goodwill" and to ensure that Ukraine could not blame them for the food/blockade crisis. Here's to more "gestures!"

Lol at gesture of good will. Position there is unsustainable for Russians and Ukrainians, I would be surprised if Ukrainians would take the island, it's just not that important and the island is small without much cover.

I'm also skeptical that Ukraine will try to take it immediately, but the island was presumably somewhat important to Russian command given the resources poured into its defence. Prior to the most recent rounds of attacks, they'd expanded their air defences and installed a longer-range air search radar for surveillance; had their positions been deemed defensible, the garrison would probably have used floating cranes to install heavier, longer-range air defences, as we saw with the first Pantsir system.

Recall that Russia doubled down on Snake Island after the sinking of the Moskva. Because they could not get any more cruisers or destroyers into the Black Sea, Snake Island seemed to offer the best options for surveillance capabilities in Western Ukraine and near Romania, in addition to a platform for long-range air defences inhibiting the Ukrainian Air Force around Odessa. It also made the naval blockade of Ukraine a fair bit tighter, although we should assume the distant maritime blockade of Ukrainian merchant ships remains intact (for now).

After the Moskva was sunk, there were reports of an uptick in UkrAF activity around Odessa (likely a result of Russia no longer having S-300s so close to the local air bases, although it could also be due to the Ukrainian Air Force focusing more on Snake Island).

[bilaps]

After several days of attacks on Snake Island and the probable destruction of at least one Pantsir AA system deployed there via floating crane, RuMOD admits its soldiers have finally left Snake Island.
 
They claim to have done this "as a gesture of goodwill" and to ensure that Ukraine could not blame them for the food/blockade crisis. Here's to more "gestures!"

Lol at gesture of good will. Position there is unsustainable for Russians and Ukrainians, I would be surprised if Ukrainians would take the island, it's just not that important and the island is small without much cover.

I'm also skeptical that Ukraine will try to take it immediately, but the island was presumably somewhat important to Russian command given the resources poured into its defence. Prior to the most recent rounds of attacks, they'd expanded their air defences and installed a longer-range air search radar for surveillance; had their positions been deemed defensible, the garrison would probably have used floating cranes to install heavier, longer-range air defences, as we saw with the first Pantsir system.

Recall that Russia doubled down on Snake Island after the sinking of the Moskva. Because they could not get any more cruisers or destroyers into the Black Sea, Snake Island seemed to offer the best options for surveillance capabilities in Western Ukraine and near Romania, in addition to a platform for long-range air defences inhibiting the Ukrainian Air Force around Odessa. It also made the naval blockade of Ukraine a fair bit tighter, although we should assume the distant maritime blockade of Ukrainian merchant ships remains intact (for now).

After the Moskva was sunk, there were reports of an uptick in UkrAF activity around Odessa (likely a result of Russia no longer having S-300s so close to the local air bases, although it could also be due to the Ukrainian Air Force focusing more on Snake Island).

I think Russians couldn't withstand just another propaganda fiasco so they decided to stick to it. Now, when things are going better in the East and with longer range artillery coming from the West, position on Snake Island becomes more and more difficult. It really isn't worth it. We'll see if it changes something with Odessa grain export.