Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

Lula is the favorite but Bolsonaro still has chances. But he needs:

1. Economic improvement (2022 has been showing this slightly, but inflation still is very high and average person purchasing power low)
2. Make the election about cultural issues instead somehow. The talk about communism is worthless when the economy isn’t great and you’re the incumbent, but talk of the left turning kids gay? Maybe.

Lula recently voiced his support for the right of women to have an abortion which feels kinda groundbreaking and makes me happy but also really really worried.

People need to have in mind that even if the left can be stronger in LatAm because of economic reasons, it’s culturally more conservative than the west in general. And in the specific matter of abortion, I think Brazil tends to be even more conservative than some other LatAm countries…

If I had an image stereotype of Brazilians it would the fake-prudish “Do what I say, don’t do what I do” people who are actually pretty liberal but even more ashamed of it, as religion does have a significant impact. Even people who would do an abortion or let their partners do it are kinda scandalized by the notion of legalizing abortion.

Gay marriage and LGBT issues were one issue easy to advance with and I’m sure legalization of Marijuana will soon be one too. These are issues more related to individual rights only, so even people who are against can’t bring themselves to care much to the point of generalized and organized opposition.

But abortion? To many people that will sound like heresy from hell or something. I do think the scenario is better nowadays (thanks to places like Colombia, Argentina and Uruguay recently being trailblazers on the matter), but it would still cause an earthquake if it happened so that’s the kind of comment from Lula that the Bolsonaro camp could explore in order to keep and maybe get back or even gain culturally conservative voters (which is most people tbh, including many leftists).

The way you are describing people doesn't make them sound too healthy. I've tried being in various types of relationships with people like that and they end up with me hating them or them hating me.

Lol it’s not to be taken that literally. Just the better way I can paint the societal contradictions. Because I’m used with a lot of conservative in-speech only people.

For example I saw a poll saying >80% of Brazilians thinking being religious makes you a better person, one of the highest in the world, higher than the LatAm countries polled. At the same time, this is the country of Carnaval and I think people in general are more liberal than in many LatAm countries on many stuff (say, Peru for example).

So it’s a contradiction that I think exemplifies that fake-religious type of behavior. There are people that push the narrative this is a very conservative and religious country, others will say people are open-minded, welcoming and liberal. I think neither are accurate representation that tells exactly the full story, because it’s kind of a mix of both notions co-existing lol

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, April 1-3

Moro running
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 6%, Ciro 5%, Janones 3%

Moro not running
Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro 6%

Runoff: Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 34%

Bolsonaro administration's evaluation
Positive 26%, Regular 25%, Negative 47%

Quaest confirms the trends showed by other polls: Lula is stable, Bolsonaro is growing at the expense of other right-wing candidates, Lula's margin in the runoff is slightly decreasing, Bolsonaro's evaluation is slightly getting better. Lula has still the highest probability to win, but it won't be a very easy race.

[buritobr]

Datafolha April 5-6:

Governor of the state of São Paulo

Marcio França running scenario
Fernando Haddad (PT) 29%, Marcio França (PSB) 20%, Tarcísio (R) 10%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 6%

Marcio França not running scenario
Fernando Haddad (PT) 35%, Tarcisio (R) 11%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 11%


Governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Freixo (PSB) 22%, Claudio Castro (PL) 18%, Rodrigo Neves (PDT) 7%

[Sub Jero]

Lula will win easily.

[buritobr]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

[Red Velvet]

The idea that a no-energy center right VP and a “moderate” campaign will excite anyone in Brazil sounds wrong to me, as if western rules were being applied in non-western countries.

If anything, Bolsonaro showed the more energetic you are, the more people hear you. People vote with their emotions, not with their head. Most PSDB ex-voters will still vote for Bolsonaro even if Lula’s VP is Alckmin imo.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Hope the PT is prepared for President Alckmin in 2025.

[Mike88]

What's Lula and Alckmin relation like? In the past, they seem to have hated each other:

https://twitter.com/jm_jonet/status/1512597792396615680

I know there was an "approximation" between both recently, circumstances occasionally erase old grudges, but still.

[Red Velvet]

They ran against each other in 2006. Alckmin was one of the main PSDB figures from 1988 until 2021 and PT-PSDB have been the top 2 rival parties for the past 30 years or so.

At least until Bolsonaro came along and “stole” PSDB voters, keeping with the trend of the center-right flocking to the hard right. That is the main “circumstance” behind this Lula-Alckmin alliance. With the melting of PSDB and also with the internal partes war of Doria vs most traditional and older members of the party, Alckmin has left it and joined PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party lmao) in order to be Lula’s VP and show this sign of broad unity or something.

The narrative is that Alckmin is compromising by moving left and Lula is compromising by moving right in order of greater good of defeating Bolsonaro. But polls show that isn’t necessary and it’s not like Lula will expand his reach with anti-PT voters because of this.

The reasoning is clearly governability after they get elected, not election viability imo. Same reason why they had Michel Temer as VP (someone who wasn’t known or popular with the public). Because parties in congress are so fragmented, these types of alliances are seen as necessary in order to get stuff done basically.

[buritobr]

Yes, Lula and Alckmin were not close friends in a recent past, and this fact is an aditional fuel to the narrative that different forces should join against the biggest Enemy.
Although Lula could win even in a pure left-wing ticket, he wanted a non-leftist as a running mate because he wants to have sure he will win and because he wants a broad base in the Congress.

Other non-leftist names could be opitions, but I believe Lula chose Alckmin because he was thinking in the election for the governor of São Paulo. PT has a big chance to elect a governor of the most powerful state for the first time, and Alckmin could be a strong competitor against Fernando Haddad. So, convincing Alckmin to be Lula's running mate removed him from Haddad's way. Without Alckmin and his ally Marcio França, Haddad will have easier opponents: Tarcísio Freitas, endorsed by unpopular Bolsonaro, and Rodrigo Garcia, endorsed by unpopular Joao Doria.

[Pres Mike]

Lula lost three elections before winning his 4th one in 2002. What did he do different? He appealed to moderates and the middle class.

[Pres Mike]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

There are so many parallels between the 2020 US election and 2022 Brazilian election.

You have a well known, fairly popular and universally recognized figure seeking to take out a far right incumbent. The opposition is trying to appeal to both the left, center and disgruntled center right disgusted by the incumbent.

Both Biden and Lula should have ran in the previous elections (2016/2018) and probably would have won those elections. Both did not run because of BS reasons (Hillary taking over the DNC, Lula going to jail over carwash). Both are very old.

[buritobr]

Lula lost three elections before winning his 4th one in 2002. What did he do different? He appealed to moderates and the middle class.

It is correct, but I add a further information: in 2002 and in 2006, Lula had the same 61% of the valid vote in the runoff. But the base was very different. Lula performed well in the middle class when he was elected in the 1st time in 2002. However, his main base when he was reelected in 2006 was the very poor. Lula performed worse in the middle class in 2006 when he won than he performed in 1989 when he lost.
Very poor people also prefer moderate candidates.

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll April 2022

State of São Paulo

Governor (Marcio França running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 29%, Marcio França (PSB) 19%, Tarcísio (R) 13%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 5%

Governor (Marcio França not running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 35%, Tarcísio de Freitas (R) 18%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 9%

Ronoff
Haddad 40%, Tarcísio 27%
Haddad 39%, Tarcísio 23%

President (Sergio Moro not running)
Lula 34%, Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 6%

Runoff
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 36%


In most states, Lula is much bigger than local PT candidates. In São Paulo, probably the vote for Haddad for governor and for Lula for president will be the same.

PT can win a presidential election in São Paulo for the 1st time since 2002. But Lula's margin in São Paulo is smaller than the national margin, according to the polls

[Red Velvet]

Yeah, there was definitely a realignment between 2002 and 2006, that lasts until today.

The Lula/PT voter on a national scale is similar to 2006, but very different from the 2002 coallition.

He only became popular with poorer sectors and transformed the Northeast into a safe PT region AFTER his first term.

If you look at 2002 numbers and also from previous elections, you will notice the Northeast wasn’t more pro-PT at all. In fact, the only State Lula LOST in 2002 was Alagoas, which is in the Northeast. It has since gone for PT in all presidential elections.

The PT coallition from 2002 and before was, let’s say, a more urban type of left. Known for wanting change, the cultural progressive type. Back when PT best numbers would be in Rio de Janeiro.

From 2006 onwards, the PT coalition became more working class. They lost some of the “intelectuals” and wealthy support in big cities but in compensation that was replaced by a working class coallition. Which to be very clear, isn’t necessarily progressive. Many can be pretty culturally conservative although that isn’t a rule (ex: many city people are also conservative in that sense).

Alckmin as a VP sounds like the kind of thing that at most would appeal to a very small segment of centrist city voter who already disliked both Lula and Bolsonaro. Electorally, I don’t think it’s much of a strategy.

However, he’s not thinking about the election with Alckmin. He’s thinking about governability AFTER is possible election.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

There are so many parallels between the 2020 US election and 2022 Brazilian election.

You have a well known, fairly popular and universally recognized figure seeking to take out a far right incumbent. The opposition is trying to appeal to both the left, center and disgruntled center right disgusted by the incumbent.

Both Biden and Lula should have ran in the previous elections (2016/2018) and probably would have won those elections. Both did not run because of BS reasons (Hillary taking over the DNC, Lula going to jail over carwash). Both are very old.

Does that mean Bolsonaro could run again in 2026 if he loses?

[Sub Jero]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

There are so many parallels between the 2020 US election and 2022 Brazilian election.

You have a well known, fairly popular and universally recognized figure seeking to take out a far right incumbent. The opposition is trying to appeal to both the left, center and disgruntled center right disgusted by the incumbent.

Both Biden and Lula should have ran in the previous elections (2016/2018) and probably would have won those elections. Both did not run because of BS reasons (Hillary taking over the DNC, Lula going to jail over carwash). Both are very old.

Does that mean Bolsonaro could run again in 2026 if he loses?

I think Brazil has a two consecutive terms limit, so he could.

Lula should have convinced Dilma to step down in favor of him in 2014.

[buritobr]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

There are so many parallels between the 2020 US election and 2022 Brazilian election.

You have a well known, fairly popular and universally recognized figure seeking to take out a far right incumbent. The opposition is trying to appeal to both the left, center and disgruntled center right disgusted by the incumbent.

Both Biden and Lula should have ran in the previous elections (2016/2018) and probably would have won those elections. Both did not run because of BS reasons (Hillary taking over the DNC, Lula going to jail over carwash). Both are very old.

Does that mean Bolsonaro could run again in 2026 if he loses?

He is allowed to run. The constitution forbids only more than 2 consecutive terms. Lula had already 2 terms, but he can run now because the 3rd term won't be consecutive.

But I don't believe Bolsonaro would run in 2026. If he runs, I don't believe he will perform well. He wouldn't have the incumbency advantage like he has now.

[Red Velvet]

I really think Bolsonaro has less support than Trump in US.

However, he’s clearly the main face of the right nowadays and I don’t see that changing in 2026. Either a new “populist right” face will surge to occupy his space OR he will retain at least the support from now.

But I genuinely don’t see a return to a liberal right in the way PSDB represented in the post-redemocratization moment. This sector of the right is here to stay and what people perceive as “center-right” will keep being unpopular for quite some time.

And since politics is a pendulum thing, even if the left wins this election, the next one and also the one after that… These people will eventually return to power one day. Unless there’s another earthquake like what the 2010s represented, but empowering the liberal sectors of the right, I don’t see that really changing.

One possible side effect is that an increasing number of liberals (real ones, mostly irrelevant in Brazil) will start preferring the left over the right that they always supported since PSDB is basically history at this point. And the left could possibly become more liberal because of this.

It’s interesting because we’re all used to a populist left vs liberal right dynamics but that could maybe change to a liberal left vs populist right now.

[buritobr]

PoderData poll, April 10-12

Moro not running

First round
Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 5%

Runoff
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 38%

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/frente-de-lula-sobre-bolsonaro-cai-a-5-pontos-diz-poderdata/

After the pandemic became not the most important topic anymore, Bolsonaro is closing the gap

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Sensus IstoÉ poll, April 8th - 11th

https://www.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2022/04/13/sensus-pesquisa-abril-lula-bolsonaro-eleicoes-2022.htm

Scenario 1st round  stimulated

Lula (Worker's Party) 43,3%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 28,8%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 6,3%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 2,6%
André Janones (Forward) 2%
Vera Lúcia (Unified Worker's Socialist Party) 1,1%
Simone Tebet (Democratic Brazilian Movement) 0,8%
Felipe D'Ávila (New Party) 0,1%
José Maria Eymael (Christian Democracy) 0,1%
Leonardo Péricles (Popular Unity) 0,1%
Sofia Manzano (Communist Brazilian Party) 0,1%

Blank/null 7,8%
Don't know/don´t answer 7,1%

Runoff

Lula 53,4% vs. Bolsonaro 34,1%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 34,4%
Ciro 41,9% vs. Bolsonaro 37,2%
Bolsonaro 40,4% vs. Tebet 30,5%
Lula 55% vs. Doria 17,5%
Lula 56% vs. Tebet 15,9%

[Sub Jero]

Some recent developments:https://mobile.twitter.com/BrazilianReport/status/1514282011749400576
https://mobile.twitter.com/worldnewsdotcom/status/1514563121226170370
Also, unrelated but funny.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BrazilianReport/status/1513540221958340625?cxt=HHwWoo...

[Red Velvet]

The Lula-Alckmin alliance is so cartoonish that it’s a mix of cringe and funny.

Alckmin, who was associated with fascists by PT supporters in the past, now making speeches to unions about Lula being the greatest popular leader Brazil ever had. And people are supposed to buy him being a leftist now.

He’s trying with the pro-worker rhetoric but it sounds so desperate and out of his box that people either don’t buy it or pretend to do it.

Lula is pretty much the standard of liberal left domestically, so I will never understand the image of hard left that some liberals have of him. I guess Brazilian “liberals” are so strongly conservative that any minimal crumble given to lower classes looks like extremism.

It’s funny how this alliance has been attacked by right, left and center for different reasons. The left isn’t comfortable with having to stan Alckmin, only harsh PT supporters who are willing to buy everything Lula does. The “center” (aka liberals) absolutely HATES the idea of this partnership making Lula look like the actual centrist and moderate. And the right (populist Bolsonaro sector) sees is as two different establishment sectors uniting to take out their “anti-establishment” guy Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Projection of the newspaper "O Estado de São Paulo" of the performance of the candidates to president in the states based on polls
https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1515683762172047361

Lula: Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo

Bolsonaro: Acre, Roraima, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Distrito Federal, Paraná, Santa Catarina

undefined: Goiás, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul


I think only the 9 states in the Northeast are safe Lula, and Acre, Roraima, Rondônia, Santa Catarina are safe Bolsonaro. All the others are undefined.

[Red Velvet]

New EXAME/IDEIA poll shows Bolsonaro closing the gap on the 1st round.

Scenario with Doria:

Lula (PT) 42%
Bolsonaro (PL) 33%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%

Scenario with Leite (yup internal fighting even after primaries):

Lula (PT) 43%
Bolsonaro (PL) 34%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 4%

Everyone else has either 1% or less than that. Now with Sergio Moro out of the race, it’s natural to Bolsonaro to go up as he is the closest option to inherit his voters.

Last poll from this institute from 1 month ago included all of Moro (dropped out) and Leite and Doria (still a bit uncertain who will be PSDB candidate even if most likely it’s Doria). It was:

Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 29%
Sérgio Moro 9%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Eduardo Leite 2%
João Doria 1%