Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

I don't know UP very well. PSTU is trotskist. PCB is orthodox marxist-leninist.

[Red Velvet]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

All of them are basically non-existent in terms of political representation, although figures like Jones Manoel (PCB) have been giving parties like PCB more visibility to a younger audience more recently.

UP is the youngest, formed in 2016 and I think it has more of a XXI century interpretation of socialism. It doesn’t see China as a socialist country for example, although it takes inspiration on the revolutionary organization. It was formed with the mobilization of 4 different groups:

- Movimento de Lutas nos Bairros, Vilas e Favelas (MLB), which acts on the housing issues, so that it isn’t something accessible only to the rich
- Movimento Luta de Classes, focused on unionism matters
- Movimento de Mulheres Olga Benário, focused on feminist matters
- União da Juventude Rebelião (UJR), involved with young university student movements

PCB is the oldest communist party in Brazil, I think. They and PCdoB (now just a PT sidekick) used to be the same thing. It identifies itself as Marxist-Leninist as burito said. Internally they defend a “Democratic centralism” where different views are presented and after a wide debate the party adopts their positioning and the militants must embrace the party positions. It’s different from what you see in PT/PSOL where there are multiple ideological brands running on the inside.

PSTU is Trotskyist and defends a State without parties. In commercials they tell elections are a farce and what the country needs is a revolution. While UP would embrace every socialist experience through an updated modern understanding and PCB can have some Stalinist apologists on the inside, PSTU can be very critical of other left-wing movements. It was somewhat more open to Dilma’s impeachment.

I genuinely prefer UP and PCB over PSTU tbh, But I don’t count them out: If there’s someone I like in the elections, I will consider them. PSTU, like most trotskyists, aren’t very trustworthy.

A 4th far-left party is PCO, another Marxist party, but I don’t consider them as much of an option to substitute PSOL when voting. A running joke online is how PCO often aligns with Bolsonaro voters on many controversial issues, such as online restriction of speech. When Bolsonarists were banned/condemned for spreading hate or whatever else that pushed institution limits, PCO DEFENDED them with the argument these same measures can and will be used to censor the left and the workers fight.

[PSOL]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

I don't know UP very well. PSTU is trotskist. PCB is orthodox marxist-leninist.

Thank you Losurdo-impersonator for your wiki insight

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

All of them are basically non-existent in terms of political representation, although figures like Jones Manoel (PCB) have been giving parties like PCB more visibility to a younger audience more recently.

UP is the youngest, formed in 2016 and I think it has more of a XXI century interpretation of socialism. It doesn’t see China as a socialist country for example, although it takes inspiration on the revolutionary organization. It was formed with the mobilization of 4 different groups:

- Movimento de Lutas nos Bairros, Vilas e Favelas (MLB), which acts on the housing issues, so that it isn’t something accessible only to the rich
- Movimento Luta de Classes, focused on unionism matters
- Movimento de Mulheres Olga Benário, focused on feminist matters
- União da Juventude Rebelião (UJR), involved with young university student movements

PCB is the oldest communist party in Brazil, I think. They and PCdoB (now just a PT sidekick) used to be the same thing. It identifies itself as Marxist-Leninist as burito said. Internally they defend a “Democratic centralism” where different views are presented and after a wide debate the party adopts their positioning and the militants must embrace the party positions. It’s different from what you see in PT/PSOL where there are multiple ideological brands running on the inside.

PSTU is Trotskyist and defends a State without parties. In commercials they tell elections are a farce and what the country needs is a revolution. While UP would embrace every socialist experience through an updated modern understanding and PCB can have some Stalinist apologists on the inside, PSTU can be very critical of other left-wing movements. It was somewhat more open to Dilma’s impeachment.

I genuinely prefer UP and PCB over PSTU tbh, But I don’t count them out: If there’s someone I like in the elections, I will consider them. PSTU, like most trotskyists, aren’t very trustworthy.

A 4th far-left party is PCO, another Marxist party, but I don’t consider them as much of an option to substitute PSOL when voting. A running joke online is how PCO often aligns with Bolsonaro voters on many controversial issues, such as online restriction of speech. When Bolsonarists were banned/condemned for spreading hate or whatever else that pushed institution limits, PCO DEFENDED them with the argument these same measures can and will be used to censor the left and the workers fight.

My question was more in the way of how they sell themselves. Why don’t you trust Trotskyist parties?

[Red Velvet]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

I don't know UP very well. PSTU is trotskist. PCB is orthodox marxist-leninist.

Thank you Losurdo-impersonator for your wiki insight

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

All of them are basically non-existent in terms of political representation, although figures like Jones Manoel (PCB) have been giving parties like PCB more visibility to a younger audience more recently.

UP is the youngest, formed in 2016 and I think it has more of a XXI century interpretation of socialism. It doesn’t see China as a socialist country for example, although it takes inspiration on the revolutionary organization. It was formed with the mobilization of 4 different groups:

- Movimento de Lutas nos Bairros, Vilas e Favelas (MLB), which acts on the housing issues, so that it isn’t something accessible only to the rich
- Movimento Luta de Classes, focused on unionism matters
- Movimento de Mulheres Olga Benário, focused on feminist matters
- União da Juventude Rebelião (UJR), involved with young university student movements

PCB is the oldest communist party in Brazil, I think. They and PCdoB (now just a PT sidekick) used to be the same thing. It identifies itself as Marxist-Leninist as burito said. Internally they defend a “Democratic centralism” where different views are presented and after a wide debate the party adopts their positioning and the militants must embrace the party positions. It’s different from what you see in PT/PSOL where there are multiple ideological brands running on the inside.

PSTU is Trotskyist and defends a State without parties. In commercials they tell elections are a farce and what the country needs is a revolution. While UP would embrace every socialist experience through an updated modern understanding and PCB can have some Stalinist apologists on the inside, PSTU can be very critical of other left-wing movements. It was somewhat more open to Dilma’s impeachment.

I genuinely prefer UP and PCB over PSTU tbh, But I don’t count them out: If there’s someone I like in the elections, I will consider them. PSTU, like most trotskyists, aren’t very trustworthy.

A 4th far-left party is PCO, another Marxist party, but I don’t consider them as much of an option to substitute PSOL when voting. A running joke online is how PCO often aligns with Bolsonaro voters on many controversial issues, such as online restriction of speech. When Bolsonarists were banned/condemned for spreading hate or whatever else that pushed institution limits, PCO DEFENDED them with the argument these same measures can and will be used to censor the left and the workers fight.

My question was more in the way of how they sell themselves. Why don’t you trust Trotskyist parties?

They are fringe parties with no elected representatives, no one really hears of them other than maybe in 5 sec commercials during election campaigns. So I can’t say they “sell” themselves in a broader sense. Mostly only left-wing militants know what they are.

[buritobr]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

I don't know UP very well. PSTU is trotskist. PCB is orthodox marxist-leninist.

Thank you Losurdo-impersonator for your wiki insight

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

All of them are basically non-existent in terms of political representation, although figures like Jones Manoel (PCB) have been giving parties like PCB more visibility to a younger audience more recently.

UP is the youngest, formed in 2016 and I think it has more of a XXI century interpretation of socialism. It doesn’t see China as a socialist country for example, although it takes inspiration on the revolutionary organization. It was formed with the mobilization of 4 different groups:

- Movimento de Lutas nos Bairros, Vilas e Favelas (MLB), which acts on the housing issues, so that it isn’t something accessible only to the rich
- Movimento Luta de Classes, focused on unionism matters
- Movimento de Mulheres Olga Benário, focused on feminist matters
- União da Juventude Rebelião (UJR), involved with young university student movements

PCB is the oldest communist party in Brazil, I think. They and PCdoB (now just a PT sidekick) used to be the same thing. It identifies itself as Marxist-Leninist as burito said. Internally they defend a “Democratic centralism” where different views are presented and after a wide debate the party adopts their positioning and the militants must embrace the party positions. It’s different from what you see in PT/PSOL where there are multiple ideological brands running on the inside.

PSTU is Trotskyist and defends a State without parties. In commercials they tell elections are a farce and what the country needs is a revolution. While UP would embrace every socialist experience through an updated modern understanding and PCB can have some Stalinist apologists on the inside, PSTU can be very critical of other left-wing movements. It was somewhat more open to Dilma’s impeachment.

I genuinely prefer UP and PCB over PSTU tbh, But I don’t count them out: If there’s someone I like in the elections, I will consider them. PSTU, like most trotskyists, aren’t very trustworthy.

A 4th far-left party is PCO, another Marxist party, but I don’t consider them as much of an option to substitute PSOL when voting. A running joke online is how PCO often aligns with Bolsonaro voters on many controversial issues, such as online restriction of speech. When Bolsonarists were banned/condemned for spreading hate or whatever else that pushed institution limits, PCO DEFENDED them with the argument these same measures can and will be used to censor the left and the workers fight.

My question was more in the way of how they sell themselves. Why don’t you trust Trotskyist parties?

What a coincidence you mentioned Losurdo. Jones Manoel, the famous PCB youtuber, is a fan of Losurdo.

[Red Velvet]

Lula appeared on the TIME magazine and gave an interview to them!

https://mobile.twitter.com/domphillips/status/1521830001280262144

Among one of his statements, he said Zelenskyy is as much to blame as Putin for the war going on. Said there was room for negotiation and refused to do it, which put fire in the conflict.

I wonder if the liberal leftists Zelenskyy lovers will vote for Bolsonazi now? Lol

[Niemeyerite]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

[Red Velvet]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

Pretty much the response I expect from the stronger liberal sectors of the left tbh

Which means, let’s overlook it and ignore because it’s Lula. But anyone who agrees with HIS words is a Putin lover since we don’t dare calling Lula that.

[buritobr]

Lula's comment about the Russia vs Ukraine War was not good, but it was only one of many topics in the interview in Time.
And I don't think a bad comment in May is an important issue for an election in October.

[DL]

Is there ANYONE in Brazil for whom the position candidates take on the war between Russia and Ukraine is a vote determining issue?

[buritobr]

Is there ANYONE in Brazil for whom the position candidates take on the war between Russia and Ukraine is a vote determining issue?

No

[buritobr]

It's official: Luke Skywalker is endorsing Lula
https://twitter.com/MarkHamill/status/1521957202323419137

[Niemeyerite]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

Pretty much the response I expect from the stronger liberal sectors of the left tbh

Which means, let’s overlook it and ignore because it’s Lula. But anyone who agrees with HIS words is a Putin lover since we don’t dare calling Lula that.

It's not a big deal. Maybe if we were talking about some European country yes, it could affect my voting decision. But Brazil should simply stay away from the conflict. And Lula words are understandable once you realize he never stops talking about how he will bring the BRICS back.

[Red Velvet]

Is there ANYONE in Brazil for whom the position candidates take on the war between Russia and Ukraine is a vote determining issue?

Very few, but yes. Although the proportion of votes he would lose from this would probably be around the same the ones he would win.

However electorally it’s not much of an issue, it’s mostly being used by liberal Anti-Lula and Anti-Bolsonaro voters as supposed evidence both sides are the same evil. That narrative certainly didn’t start with this though and these are people who would repeat the same narrative regardless of what the candidates do or say.

These people are mostly ex-Bolsonaro voters who got dissatisfied with the president they voted. Voted for him in 2018 fully based on anti-PT hype, saw the disaster his presidency was but still hate the PT even if their newfound hate for Bolsonaro makes them divide focus.

They mostly wanted to vote for Sérgio Moro, Doria or were already planning to invent an excuse to nullify their votes. NOVO voters are also part of this brand.

And the PT more liberal voters will easily shrug it off as “it’s Lula, he can say anything, I only get very mad if it’s anyone else making these exact same comments”. And the leftist ones will actually love the comment as evidence that Lula isn’t a neoliberal sellout on the service of US interests like some sectors were accusing him to be.

Bolsonaro voters actually love Putin (unlike anti-american leftists) so they cannot even use this as an attack other than “But when it’s LULA who says it there’s no outrage by people who fake outrages on Bolsonaro”.

[Red Velvet]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

Pretty much the response I expect from the stronger liberal sectors of the left tbh

Which means, let’s overlook it and ignore because it’s Lula. But anyone who agrees with HIS words is a Putin lover since we don’t dare calling Lula that.

It's not a big deal. Maybe if we were talking about some European country yes, it could affect my voting decision. But Brazil should simply stay away from the conflict. And Lula words are understandable once you realize he never stops talking about how he will bring the BRICS back.

But the correlation between the leftist “Russian defender” and BRICS supporter is pretty high. In fact that is the main reason Brazilian leftists defend Russia so I don’t get why it’s only cool when Lula says it lol

I mean, if you think sanctions and a harsh response on Russia are necessary, how can you support a bloc of emergent countries that includes Russia? This is the lack of consistency that boggles my mind from some liberal leftist sectors sometimes.

I can understand people who criticize the Anti-Russia sanctions and are BRICS enthusiasts because they want a multilateral global order that isn’t defined by submission to wealthier white countries.

I can understand people who support the Russia sanctions and are against BRICS as well even if I disagree with them and their view of savage uneducated third-world people threatening us.

But I don’t understand people who defend harsh response against Russia and still love BRICS. Those are mostly liberal sectors of the left usually trying to conciliate their disapproval for the war with their disapproval for a subjugated global south just to be able to achieve some artificial moral superiority that is just impossible to conciliate in the practical real world.

[Niemeyerite]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

Pretty much the response I expect from the stronger liberal sectors of the left tbh

Which means, let’s overlook it and ignore because it’s Lula. But anyone who agrees with HIS words is a Putin lover since we don’t dare calling Lula that.

It's not a big deal. Maybe if we were talking about some European country yes, it could affect my voting decision. But Brazil should simply stay away from the conflict. And Lula words are understandable once you realize he never stops talking about how he will bring the BRICS back.

But the correlation between the leftist “Russian defender” and BRICS supporter is pretty high. In fact that is the main reason Brazilian leftists defend Russia so I don’t get why it’s only cool when Lula says it lol

I mean, if you think sanctions and a harsh response on Russia are necessary, how can you support a bloc of emergent countries that includes Russia? This is the lack of consistency that boggles my mind from some liberal leftist sectors sometimes.

I can understand people who criticize the Anti-Russia sanctions and are BRICS enthusiasts because they want a multilateral global order that isn’t defined by submission to wealthier white countries.

I can understand people who support the Russia sanctions and are against BRICS as well even if I disagree with them and their view of savage uneducated third-world people threatening us.

But I don’t understand people who defend harsh response against Russia and still love BRICS. Those are mostly liberal sectors of the left usually trying to conciliate their disapproval for the war with their disapproval for a subjugated global south just to be able to achieve some artificial moral superiority that is just impossible to conciliate in the practical real world.

You can support a multilateral global order and the idea behind BRICS and still disapprove of Russia for invading a country, killing its people and destroying its cities. I'm not against Russia per se, I'm against Putin and his war. But I think Russia should play a role in a multipolar World. But that doesn't mean invading other countries and becoming an Empire.

[Red Velvet]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

Pretty much the response I expect from the stronger liberal sectors of the left tbh

Which means, let’s overlook it and ignore because it’s Lula. But anyone who agrees with HIS words is a Putin lover since we don’t dare calling Lula that.

It's not a big deal. Maybe if we were talking about some European country yes, it could affect my voting decision. But Brazil should simply stay away from the conflict. And Lula words are understandable once you realize he never stops talking about how he will bring the BRICS back.

But the correlation between the leftist “Russian defender” and BRICS supporter is pretty high. In fact that is the main reason Brazilian leftists defend Russia so I don’t get why it’s only cool when Lula says it lol

I mean, if you think sanctions and a harsh response on Russia are necessary, how can you support a bloc of emergent countries that includes Russia? This is the lack of consistency that boggles my mind from some liberal leftist sectors sometimes.

I can understand people who criticize the Anti-Russia sanctions and are BRICS enthusiasts because they want a multilateral global order that isn’t defined by submission to wealthier white countries.

I can understand people who support the Russia sanctions and are against BRICS as well even if I disagree with them and their view of savage uneducated third-world people threatening us.

But I don’t understand people who defend harsh response against Russia and still love BRICS. Those are mostly liberal sectors of the left usually trying to conciliate their disapproval for the war with their disapproval for a subjugated global south just to be able to achieve some artificial moral superiority that is just impossible to conciliate in the practical real world.

You can support a multilateral global order and the idea behind BRICS and still disapprove of Russia for invading a country, killing its people and destroying its cities. I'm not against Russia per se, I'm against Putin and his war. But I think Russia should play a role in a multipolar World. But that doesn't mean invading other countries and becoming an Empire.

Okay then my question to you, since you say you support a multipolar world where Russia has an active participation, is how do you think it’s possible to have that with an economic global war being stimulated?

Do you think they will work to take Putin out and Russia will just behave like a liberal country and it will be okay for them to be big players? Because even if Russia “loses”, Putin is going nowhere until his death. And whoever replaces him will follow a similar brand.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

2022 presidential poll Ipespe/XP Investimentos

1st round - Stimulated scenario

Lula (Worker's Party) 44%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 31%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party)  8%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
Janones (Forward) 2%
Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 1%
Vera (Socialist Unified Worker's Party) 0%
Eymael (Christian Democracy) 0%
Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union) 0%

Runoff:

Lula 54% vs. Bolsonaro 34%
Lula 52% vs. Ciro 25%
Lula 55% vs. Doria 19%
Ciro 45% vs. Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 37%

[Red Velvet]

Some of the initial music we hear from the candidates helps us understand the campaign vibes and ALSO some of their strategy.

Bolsonaro jingle:
- The Northeastern music tone and the lyrics themselves constantly mentioning the Northeast evidences that the President knows he needs to lower his rejection levels hard in that region in order to get re-elected.
- Sounds kinda desperate to create a strong relation with the Northeast with stuff like the financial aid given during the pandemic (R$600) and Transnordestina railway (which is not ready yet). Knows doesn’t have much to show but has to go try to associate himself with something, I guess.
- I don’t see myself listening to this song again, much less ever dancing to it. It’s kinda bland and while jingles have to suck up for the candidate they’re campaigning for, they need to have a special energy and rhythm to convince you of what is being said. I think Bolsonaro campaign would do better if they focused on more convincing allignments he has created (defense of family, Christian values) instead of forcing a type of appeal that doesn’t exist. The newest song I’ve seen from him didn’t change things that much, it STILL is very focused on the Northeast:

Ciro jingle:
- It’s the most fun imo and I love the Carnaval energy it gives but I wish it talked more about Ciro himself. It only mentions him in the end, as alternative to other two when I wish it would talk more on why Ciro is the best option.
- Focus more on pointing Ciro as a possible alternative to Lula and Bolsonaro polarization, so the song tries more to convince on reasons why it’s not good to support Lula or Bolsonaro and also brings some lines about wanting to “work again”. Labourism is a natural talking point por PDT, the party that directly inherits Vargas and Brizola legacies.
- I can see myself listening to the music again once or twice but it’s not something particularly exciting, much less a bop. It’s okay for a pre-campaign music but improvements need to be made and Ciro should focus more on himself. The newest music released by Ciro campaign didn’t really change much things for me:

Leite and Doria jingles:
- Not much to talk about. Leite one (who isn’t even a candidate) focus more on his Southern origins to give national audiences a better understanding of who that person is. Typical strategy when your candidate isn’t that much known from outside his State and wants to built a more nationwide recognition.
- Doria one goes full hard on the vaccine appeal since he was the one who brought the first COVID vaccine to the country from China, due to his dialogue with people there in a moment Bolsonaro was fully on the Trump boat (2020) and adopted an antagonistic tone in regards them. The jingle repeats a lot of the same lines because it knows it doesn’t have much else to say though lol.
- Both are bland although Doria is a bit better. Feels too repetitive though and lacks a more populist rhythm. I wouldn’t hear any of these songs again…

Lula jingle:
- Appeals to nostalgia of better times and on the idea of Lula as a “man of the people” when they suggest Lula in power means the people in power. It’s also a common PT strategy to associate the idea of PT being in power with a general vague  idea of “Happiness”, which is lazy but very effective especially if done right. They used this theme in 2018 (“Brazil Happy Again”), before and naturally will continue doing it forever.
- While the music style isn’t my favorite (Personally, I prefer uplifting and fun* jingles), the suffering rhythm style is something that I think it connects with the average Brazilian. It basically implies to people that they are being seen and someone is connected with their sentiment. Add to that the whole narrative Lula has to paint himself as a victim and this could be even more powered up this year IF played right.
- Like I said, I personally prefer music with a rhythm tone along the lines from Ciro, but it’s clear that the Lula one is the best of all in terms of passing it’s message across successfully. It’s average, but pretty good for a pre-campaign music and there are better ones to complement it as well, such as this remix revival from Lula’s iconic 1989 campaign music to a more updated version:

* When I mean FUN jingles, I mean something along the lines of PT’s candidate for the São Paulo Mayor position in 2020. I am not even from São Paulo but I always love listening it and I feel like I want to become a PT supporter by just listening to that catchy song:

It’s perfect to me. It mixes the suffering style and message from PT in the beginning and later it becomes so fun and uplifting. I really hope some campaign is able to come up something along these lines until October!

[buritobr]

2022 presidential poll Ipespe/XP Investimentos

1st round - Stimulated scenario

Lula (Worker's Party) 44%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 31%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party)  8%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
Janones (Forward) 2%
Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 1%
Vera (Socialist Unified Worker's Party) 0%
Eymael (Christian Democracy) 0%
Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union) 0%

Runoff:

Lula 54% vs. Bolsonaro 34%
Lula 52% vs. Ciro 25%
Lula 55% vs. Doria 19%
Ciro 45% vs. Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 37%

The race is stable now.
Ipespe is the poll made by cell phone which shows results more favorable to Lula. But there is no suspiction of bias. Ipespe's owner is XP, a company which works in the stock market, and we are sure that XP is not pro-PT.
Other polls made by cell phone show Lula's lead, even though by smaller margin. But the race is stable according the other polls too.

[buritobr]

Today, there was the event to launch the Lula/Alckmin ticket. This event is similar to the national conventions of the major parties in the US. The difference is that there was no internal election in the PT, no primary. Lula was a consensus.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/brazils-lula-courts-centrists-unofficial-campaign-launch-84565040

[buritobr]

Most recent polls

MDA May 4th-7th 2022
1st round: Lula 40.6%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 7.1%
runoff: Lula 50.8%, Bolsonaro 36.8%

Quaest May 5th-8th 2022
1st round: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 29%, Ciro Gomes 7%
runoff: Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 34%

PoderData May 8th-10th 2022
1st round: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 5%
runoff: Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 38%

PoderData and MDA are made by cell phone. Quaest interviews people at their homes.

Full Data of Quaest Poll here
https://media-blog.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/10224027/genial-nas-eleicoes_pesquisa-para-presidente-2022_resultado-maio-1.pdf

[Horus]

Lula's views on Ukraine are unfortunate but also completely expected if you have even the slightest grasp of Brazilian politics. He still has my full support.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll - State of São Paulo - May 2022

Governor
1st round (Marcio França running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 30%, Marcio França (PSB) 17%, Tarcísio de Freitas (Bolsonaro's candidate) 10%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 5%
1st round (Marcio França not running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 37%, Tarcísio de Freitas 12%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 8%
runoff
Fernando Haddad 38%, Marcio França 32%
Fernando Haddad 45%, Tarcísio de Freitas 23%
Fernando Haddad 44%, Rodrigo Garcia 21%

Senator
Datena 28%, Sergio Moro 16%, Marcio França 11%, Marina Silva 10%, Paulo Skaf 10%, Janaína Paschoal 5%

President
1st round: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 4%
runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 34%

full data here https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6930485628786601984

[buritobr]

Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa said that between Bolsonaro and Lula, he considers that Bolsonaro is the best one. No surprise. He had already endorsed Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of the dictator, and José Kast, the son of the nazi.