Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

PT is the only party with structural support in Brazil, making them the default average leaders of the country.

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1533254389561020417
Even in their worst moment, around 2015, they were leading these polls with around 9%. They’re now polling 22%, when Brazilians are questioned if there’s a party they identify with.

All the existence of Bolsonaro and everything coming from the right in this country since the Lula government has been PT protagonism as well, as their only motivation is preventing PT to come to power. But they don’t really have any actual party support or clear vision for the country, it’s all about defeating PT.

The way PSDB collapsed so easily in exchange of a crazy barbecue uncle like Bolsonaro is evidence of how weak and fluid this support is. Meanwhile, so far it has been impossible to break the PT.

how have pt avoided this and can that last long after Lula is gone?

Popular base structural support, which gives them an loyal electoral safeguard. They successfully established the brand of being the “party of the people” or “only party that cares about the poor”.

Lula is a charismatic figure and naturally main strength behind the party, so it would always depend on WHAT the party strategy will be and more importantly: which leaders they would push for after Lula.

I would say they would still be the biggest party after Lula even if they could lose some of their appeal. I think the Haddad run was a good example of what to expect tbh.

Haddad was a bland and boring replacement to Lula in the moment PT was at their worst and most unpopular phase since ever. And he still managed to be a top 2 candidate and get 45% in a runoff (even if of course, he was running against someone with strong levels of opposition as well).

Which means, PT isn’t invincible at all, but they will still be the biggest party in the country, me thinks. To this day, they’re the only party since the redemocratization in the 80s that ALWAYS managed to finish #1 or #2 in every election and that’s something that is not changing, it’s consolidated. PSDB occupied the protagonism in the right-wing camp between 1994 and 2014 as you can see below but this is now over.

1989:
1st place: Collor (PRN)
2nd place: Lula (PT)

1994:
1st place: FHC (PSDB)
2nd place: Lula (PT)

1998:
1st place: FHC (PSDB)
2nd place: Lula (PT)

2002:
1st place: Lula (PT)
2nd place: Serra (PSDB)

2006:
1st place: Lula (PT)
2nd place: Alckmin (PSDB)

2010:
1st place: Dilma (PT)
2nd place: Serra (PSDB)

2014:
1st place: Dilma (PT)
2nd place: Aécio (PSDB)

2018:
1st place: Bolsonaro (PSL)
2nd place: Haddad (PT)

2022 (so far, according polls):
1st place: Lula (PT)
2nd place: Bolsonaro (PL)

[buritobr]

Datafolha poll May 26th 2022

How do brazilians think in economic and social issues

Abortion
In Brazil, abortion is allowed in only 3 cases: when the pregnancy threats the life of the woman, when there was rape, when the phoetus has no brain. How legal should be the abortion?
32% illegal in all cases
39% keep the current law
18% be legal in more cases
8% be legal in all cases
There was no gender gap. There was age gap: in the group of 16-24 old people, 27% support "legal in more cases" and 15% "legal in all cases"

Gun ownership for civilians
63%: should be forbidden
35%: should be allowed

Poverty
76%: poverty is consequence of lack of oportunities
22%: poverty is consequence of lazyness

Immigration of poor people
76%: good
19%: bad

Crime
56%: crime is consequence of bad people
42%: crime is consequence of lack of oportunities

Death penalty
61%: oppose
36%: support

Drugs
83%: should be forbidden
15%: should be allowed

Homossexuality
79%: should be accepted by all the society
16%: should not be accepted

Believing in god
79%: make people better
21%: doesn't matter

Labor unions
50%: do more politics than support workers
47%: are important to support workers

Criminal teenagers
65%: should be punished like adults
34%: should be reeducated

Government intervention in the economy
50%: support
44%: oppose

Taxes
48%: better to pay high taxes and receive free education and health
46%: better to pay low taxes and pay for private education and health

Government benefits
58%: less government benefits, better life
38%: more government benefits, better life

Should government support big national companies?
71%: yes
25%: no

Labor legislation
56%: protect the workers
37%: harm the business

Who should be the biggest responsible for the investments and the economic growth
72%: the government
24%: the private firms

Full report here http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2022/06/08/p33crfil82idggg024ideo-mai-22.pdf

[Red Velvet]

One more opinion polled by DATAFOLHA:

Racial quotas in college
50% support
34% oppose

53% of Black Brazilians support it, a larger share in comparison to Mixed Brazilians (52%) and White Brazilians (50%). The younger, higher income and higher education levels of the demographic, the higher the support for this tends to be.

81,4% say racial discrimination should be discussed in schools. 93,7% say Public schools should respect ALL religious practices (which includes Afro-Brazilian religions).

[Pres Mike]

One more opinion polled by DATAFOLHA:

Racial quotas in college
50% support
34% oppose

53% of Black Brazilians support it, a larger share in comparison to Mixed Brazilians (52%) and White Brazilians (50%). The younger, higher income and higher education levels of the demographic, the higher the support for this tends to be.

81,4% say racial discrimination should be discussed in schools. 93,7% say Public schools should respect ALL religious practices (which includes Afro-Brazilian religions).

Do you think Lula will win in the first round?

[buritobr]

One more opinion polled by DATAFOLHA:

Racial quotas in college
50% support
34% oppose

53% of Black Brazilians support it, a larger share in comparison to Mixed Brazilians (52%) and White Brazilians (50%). The younger, higher income and higher education levels of the demographic, the higher the support for this tends to be.

81,4% say racial discrimination should be discussed in schools. 93,7% say Public schools should respect ALL religious practices (which includes Afro-Brazilian religions).

Do you think Lula will win in the first round?

It's possible. Lula increased his supporting base to the right, since he has Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, and to the left, since PSOL is supporting him in the 1st round for the 1st time. The 2 far-left candidates (Sophia Manzano, Vera Lúcia) will probably have very few votes, and I believe some potential Ciro Gomes voters will switch to Lula in the eve in order to avoid the Lula vs Bolsonaro runoff.

But it's not a certainty. In 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, the right performed better than the polls predicted.

I think the most feasible event is Lula winning with between 54-56% in the runoff. But it's not impossible his victory between 50-51% in the 1st round.

[Red Velvet]

One more opinion polled by DATAFOLHA:

Racial quotas in college
50% support
34% oppose

53% of Black Brazilians support it, a larger share in comparison to Mixed Brazilians (52%) and White Brazilians (50%). The younger, higher income and higher education levels of the demographic, the higher the support for this tends to be.

81,4% say racial discrimination should be discussed in schools. 93,7% say Public schools should respect ALL religious practices (which includes Afro-Brazilian religions).

Do you think Lula will win in the first round?

No idea. Toss up at this point (regarding winning on 1st or 2nd round)

[buritobr]

Very interesting videos. The results of the presidential elections from 1989 to 2018 in the center of the city of São Paulo, where the medium/upper income districts are located
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Waprf8IQqZo&t=3s
and in the periphery, where the lower income districts are located
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-fNSCy-wp8&t=299s

We can see the high degree of class polarization in São Paulo city

[OdonTrail]

What would it take for someone other than Lula or Bolsonaro to win?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What would it take for someone other than Lula or Bolsonaro to win?

One or both of them dying before the election.

[Red Velvet]

What would it take for someone other than Lula or Bolsonaro to win?

It’s a done deal. The collapse of the center/center-right is a global and regional trend. But it’s especially stronger here because of the mistakes of this camp in the last years.

It only accelerated and maximized something that is happening in a worldwide scale. Brazilian center-right has become only about “NO” and that sends a message of emptiness / negativity. No one cares about you when you don’t have a platform and you only exist to be against something/someone.

In other places in the world, being in the “center” can mean being for something, but not in Brazil nowadays. The mistakes during the late-2010s consolidated this. All the political mobilization we saw was based on no concrete project, only on the idea of defeating something. The center-right blindly embraced that and forgot about proposing something in replacement.

They hate Lula, they (only now) hate Bolsonaro, they hate average establishment politicians like everyone else but they also hate cheap anti-establishment populism when it’s put in practice… There’s nothing they can like to form a real electoral coallition.

From a different left option, Ciro Gomes is the only 3rd candidate with supporters that you can see some actual level of passion but Ciro directly competes with Lula in terms of electoral base, which makes him not happening while Lula is still alive unless Lula were to endorse him.

Ciro has also jumped the shark in terms of campaign strategy/communication out of desperation because he knows he has no chance and is doing the mistake of getting more headlines for being against something than being FOR something different (which is the reason he even established a fanbase in the first place, for the developmentalist pro-industry project).

So no, I feel this election and future ones are bound to be defined by Lulism vs Bolsonarism. Even after they go, the left and right will make successors based on people who follow along the same lines.

[buritobr]

What would it take for someone other than Lula or Bolsonaro to win?

Very hard!
The ones who could do it are Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet.
Ciro Gomes is a center-left candidate who is trying to appeal to some right-wing voters because he knows almost all the left will vote for Lula. This is a disaster: he reduced his support in the left, but he won't get support in the right.
Simone Tebet is a center-right candidate, in a MDB-PSDB alliance. She voted for Dilma Rousseff's impeachment, she endorsed Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018. Of course the left won't vote for her. She has 3 months to take votes from Bolsonaro and go to the runoff, but it's hard. Very few people know her.

[Red Velvet]

Tebet (MDB) is a non-starter, only being treated as relevant because she will get the PSDB support after Doria dropped out and as the main center-right option will be pushed by establishment forces and maybe some of the media as a “possible thing”.

In her best polls she gets only 2% though. I don’t see how she grows much more significantly in campaign. Hell, even Ciro is hopeless and he polls better, closer to 10%.

On Wikipedia the poll graphics at this points shows only 3 lines in 1st round: Lula (Red); Bolsonaro (Blue) and the Sum of all other options as “Others” (Green) lol

https://pt.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_eleitorais_para_a_eleição_presidencial_de_2022_no_Brasil

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

What would it take for someone other than Lula or Bolsonaro to win?

It’s a done deal. The collapse of the center/center-right is a global and regional trend. But it’s especially stronger here because of the mistakes of this camp in the last years.

It only accelerated and maximized something that is happening in a worldwide scale. Brazilian center-right has become only about “NO” and that sends a message of emptiness / negativity. No one cares about you when you don’t have a platform and you only exist to be against something/someone.

In other places in the world, being in the “center” can mean being for something, but not in Brazil nowadays. The mistakes during the late-2010s consolidated this. All the political mobilization we saw was based on no concrete project, only on the idea of defeating something. The center-right blindly embraced that and forgot about proposing something in replacement.

They hate Lula, they (only now) hate Bolsonaro, they hate average establishment politicians like everyone else but they also hate cheap anti-establishment populism when it’s put in practice… There’s nothing they can like to form a real electoral coallition.

From a different left option, Ciro Gomes is the only 3rd candidate with supporters that you can see some actual level of passion but Ciro directly competes with Lula in terms of electoral base, which makes him not happening while Lula is still alive unless Lula were to endorse him.

Ciro has also jumped the shark in terms of campaign strategy/communication out of desperation because he knows he has no chance and is doing the mistake of getting more headlines for being against something than being FOR something different (which is the reason he even established a fanbase in the first place, for the developmentalist pro-industry project).

So no, I feel this election and future ones are bound to be defined by Lulism vs Bolsonarism. Even after they go, the left and right will make successors based on people who follow along the same lines.

From what I can tell PSDB has fallen far from being in a position to take up the "generic right wing" mantle even if Bolsonaro collapsed or vanished from political relevance. In terms of likelihood of who would come next I'd rank it

1. One of Bolsonaro's sons
2. A Bolsonaro orbiter or a Bolsonaro-like figure
3. Someone politically in the area between Bolsonaro and PSDB, like MG Governor Zema
... [VERY LARGE DIP IN PROBABILITY]
4. Someone from one of the countless right wing micro-parties and movements outside of Bolsonaro
5. Someone completely new and unexpected, like a meta-Bolsonaro
... [ENORMOUS DIP IN PROBABILITY]
6. PSDB comeback

I have no idea what will happen to "Bolsonarism" when he loses but at the moment he just sucks up all the air on the right wing side of the room.

[Red Velvet]

I think someone else will just take on the mantle, someone who was 100% loyal to him and always kissed his ass during his term. But the Bolsonarist “brand” will definitely keep being the face of the right for good even after this election.

Maybe Bolsonaro himself will keep running in the future after losing this election. Assuming he won’t be jailed or something in this scenario.

I don’t see a return to the “moderate right” of PSDB days from the large majority of his supporters after they’ve been radicalized. Mayyyybe if the Bolsonarist brand becomes too toxic to win elections in the long term, the movement will die down out of the necessity of reinventing themselves in order to defeat the left.

But that’s a big if. Personally, I think the announcement of the 2014 elections were the big electoral turning point of this country because that was the election that the right never really accepted their defeat as they really expected to win.

That was what opened the Pandora Box that energized the right-wing movement for the second half of the 2010s, starting in 2015 with the early calls for Dilma’s impeachment. But that renovation also made them throw out what they perceived that wasn’t working for them (after PSDB 4th consecutive loss) and embrace a more populist rhetoric and campaign as an active strategy to look closer to the average people and get to finally defeat the left like they wanted.

That culminated in the elevation of a fringe figure into the mainstream, as replacement for PSDB. And since Bolsonaro actually won an election, I feel like most people see him as their only viable chance of winning as well after getting tired of losing with PSDB and moderate “boring” options.

That’s why I think Bolsonarism will only disappear in the long term if it consistently loses elections in the long term (not just one or two, closer to four just like what happened with PSDB). The right eventually would feel pressured to change in order to defeat the left, since in this country that is what drives them the most.

I feel like Lula was successful in establishing the left as the “de-facto” main leadership of the country, the force that tries to do new stuff. And that made the right be more of a reactive force, as it’s always more moved by reversing what the left does or do the opposite of what their agenda is. So if the perception becomes that Bolsonarism is bad/incompetent strategy to winning against the left, I think they would be forced to change route eventually. But it would take some time and also depend on Bolsonarist consistent defeats.

The best thing for the right in the long-term, IMO, would be having a FHC figure that is perceived as both competent and propositive. By that I mean someone who is not only defined by being too reactive against the left, someone who is more defined by their own proposals and ideas. But that is definitely not happening in the short-term future at all.

[Red Velvet]

Thought it would be interesting to rank the 2018 presidential results from both the States and the capital of each State, to see if there is a trend there.

STATES + DF (by % of valid votes on Bolsonaro in the runoff against Haddad):

1. Acre (North Region) - 77,22%
2. Santa Catarina (South Region) - 75,92%
-
3. Rondônia (North Region) - 72,18%
4. Roraima (North Region) - 71,55%
-
5. Distrito Federal (Midwest) - 69,99%
6. Paraná (South Region) - 68,43%
7. São Paulo (Southeast Region) - 67,97%
8. Rio de Janeiro (Southeast Region) - 67,95%
9. Mato Grosso (Midwest Region) - 66,42%
10. Goiás (Midwest Region) - 65,52%
11. Mato Grosso do Sul (Midwest Region) - 65,22%
-
12. Rio Grande do Sul (South Region) - 63,24%
13. Espírito Santo (Southeast Region) - 63,06%
-
14. Minas Gerais (Southeast Region) - 58,19%
-
15. Amazonas (North Region) - 50,27%
16. Amapá (North Region) - 50,21%
-
17. Tocantins (North Region) - 48,98%
18. Pará (North Region) - 45,19%
-
19. Alagoas (Northeast Region) - 40,08%
-
20. Rio Grande do Norte (Northeast Region) - 36,59%
21. Paraíba (Northeast Region) - 35,04%
-
22. Pernambuco (Northeast Region) - 33,50%
23. Sergipe (Northeast Region) - 32,46%
-
24. Ceará (Northeast Region) - 28,89%
25. Bahia (Northeast Region) - 27,31%
26. Maranhão (Northeast Region) - 26,74%
-
21. Piauí (Northeast Region) - 22,95%

CAPITALS (by % of valid votes on Bolsonaro in the runoff against Haddad):

1. Rio Branco (Acre) - 82,77%
-
2. Boa Vista (Roraima) - 78,61%
3. Curitiba (Paraná) - 76,54%
-
4. Goiânia (Goiás) - 74,20%
5. Campo Grande (Mato Grosso do Sul) - 71,27%
-
6. Distrito Federal (DF is not a state, therefore no capital) - 69,99%
7. Porto Velho (Rondônia) - 68,94%
8. Cuiabá (Mato Grosso) - 66,94%
9. Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro) - 66,35%
10. Manaus (Amazonas) - 65,72%
11. Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) - 65,59%
-
12. Palmas (Tocantins) - 64,88%
13. Florianópolis (Santa Catarina) - 64,86%
14. Vitória (Espírito Santo) - 63,19%
15. Maceió (Alagoas) - 61,63%
16. São Paulo (São Paulo) - 60,38%
-
17. Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul) - 56,85%
18. Macapá (Amapá) - 55,15%
-
19. Belém (Pará) - 54,93%
20. João Pessoa (Paraíba) - 54,80%
21. Natal (Rio Grande do Norte) - 52,98%
-
22. Recife (Pernambuco) - 47,50%
23. Aracajú (Sergipe) - 47,24%
-
24. Fortaleza (Ceará) - 44,39%
25. São Luís (Maranhão) - 42,22%
-
26. Teresina (Piauí) - 37,27%
-
27. Salvador (Bahia) - 31,41%

Bolsonaro performance in 2018 clearly shows he did better in the capitals than in overall states:
- WON 16 states, LOST 11
- WON 21 state capitals, LOST 6

Which shows that the interior vote helps Lula as a general rule overall. However, there are interesting exceptions for this. I wanted to map the States in which the capital pushed the vote to the left, which is an opposing trend to most of the country, as I’ve already shown.

These were the only 5 exceptions where the capital pushed the vote to the left:

1. Santa Catarina - + 11,06% (difference between capital vote and overall state vote)
2. São Paulo - + 7,59%
3. Rio Grande do Sul - + 6,39%
4. Rondônia - + 3,24%
5. Rio de Janeiro - + 1,60%



Which, since we’re not counting DF as a state that has a capital, is a 4/5 match with the top 5 states with highest HDI (excluding DF):

-. DF: 0,850
1. São Paulo: 0,826
2. Santa Catarina: 0,808
3. Rio de Janeiro: 0,796
4. Paraná: 0,792
5. Rio Grande do Sul: 0,787 (tied with Minas Gerais but it’s well above it in the Income + Education indexes, which is more telling than the Longevity one).

I think it’s interesting because it’s somewhat of a logic we see in foreign elections as well. In high developed countries, usually the capital and big cities tends to be “more progressive” than the rest of the country, with interior areas increasingly moving to the right. But that’s not what happens in elections of in development countries, where a lot of the interior vote is more leftist than the one in big cities because of inequality disparities favoring the left in less developed areas.

There are two opposite exceptions to this logic of “the higher development, more likely that the capital pushes the vote to the left” though. Rondônia and Paraná. I cannot explain why Porto Velho city was more left than Rondônia. Even if the 3% difference is small, it’s significant because everywhere around in the North/Northeast/Midwest, the vote usually shifted in capitals shifted a lot in favor of Bolsonaro. So it’s a weird exception in my view, that I’m curious about a theory that explains it

Meanwhile, Curitiba city being even more right-wing than Paraná comes off less surprising personally to me, even if it goes against the trend I proposed. But that’s mostly because you don’t think of strong distinctions between capital/interior in Paraná like you usually do with the other two Southern states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul tbh. There’s also the fact that Curitiba was Lava Jato’s headquarter, I guess?

[buritobr]

Datafolha June 21-22 2022

First round
Lula 47%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Janones 2%, Simone Tebet 1%, Marçal 1%, Vera Lúcia 1%

Runoff
Lula 57%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%

Very stable result. Lula went 1 point down in the 1st round and runoff, and Bolsonaro went 1 point up in the 1st round and in the runoff in comparison to May. These movements are inside the margin of error.

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha June 21-22 2022

First round
Lula 47%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Janones 2%, Simone Tebet 1%, Marçal 1%, Vera Lúcia 1%

Runoff
Lula 57%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%

Very stable result. Lula went 1 point down in the 1st round and runoff, and Bolsonaro went 1 point up in the 1st round and in the runoff in comparison to May. These movements are inside the margin of error.

These are the numbers counting nulls/blanks. With valid votes only, Lula is >50%, which would mean an outright win in the 1st round, without a runoff happening.

DataFolha poll (Valid Votes only):

Lula (PT) 53%
Bolsonaro (PL) 32%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
André Janones (Avante) 2%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 1%
Pablo Marçal (PROS) 1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) 1%

Top 2 represent 85% of the candidates vote. Or, Top 3 represent 95% of the candidates vote.

The runoff (which wouldn’t even happen with these numbers), would be Lula 63% vs Bolsonaro 37% in valid votes only.

[Red Velvet]

Also, funny how that runoff scenario of Lula 63% vs Bolsonaro 37% is basically this sum of the 1st round poll:

Lula 53% + Ciro 10% vs Bolsonaro 32% + All Others 5%

I know it’s not an exact transition (The Janones voter may not be that different from the Ciro one, some of the Tebet voter wouldn’t vote for Bolsonaro and definitely not all Ciro voters are going to get behind Lula in a runoff at all lol), but it’s still fun how it lines up.

[buritobr]

Poll conducted in the Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender Parade in São Paulo showed the preference of the people who attended the event
Lula 86%
Ciro Gomes 2,5%
Jair Bolsonaro 1,6%
It doesn't mean that this is the share of the total LGBT vote. Of course, the LGBT community is much more left-wing than the average population, but not on that level. The people who go to the parade are very political active and very left-wing. There are many heterosexual people in the LGBT parade too, in order to support the issues, and almost all of than are left-wing.

[buritobr]

Datafolha Poll June 21-22 2022 according to the groups

After each group, you can see the percentages of the candidates in the following order: Lula, Jair Bolsonaro, Ciro Gomes, Janones, Simone Tebet

All: 47, 28, 8, 2, 1

Gender
Male: 44, 36, 8, 1, 1
Female: 49, 21, 9, 3, 1

Age
16-24: 54, 24, 10, 2, 0
25-34: 51, 27, 8, 2, 1
35-44: 44, 29, 9, 3, 1
45-59: 44, 31, 7, 2, 2
60-: 45, 28, 9, 0, 2

Instruction
Elementary: 56, 22, 5, 1, 1
High School: 44, 30, 9, 3, 1
College: 37, 32, 14, 1, 3

Income in minimum wages
< 2 MW: 56, 20, 7, 3, 1
2-5 MW: 39, 35, 10, 1, 2
5-10 MW: 29, 44, 12, 0, 4
> 10 MW: 35, 47, 7, 1, 3

Region
Southeast: 43, 29, 9, 2, 2
South: 41, 34, 8, 1, 1
Northeast: 58, 19, 8, 3, 0
Center-West: 38, 40, 7, 1, 2
North: 47, 33, 8, 3, 2

Location
Metro area: 44, 29, 10, 1, 2
Countryside: 49, 28, 7, 2, 1

Color
White: 41, 34, 9, 1, 1
Black: 54, 22, 7, 3, 1
Mixed: 46, 28, 9, 2, 1

Religion (only Lula and Bolsonaro)
Catholic: 50, 24
Evangelic: 35, 40

http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2022/06/24/intencaoxe390nf8enow85ndvoo-junsrwv222.pdf

[buritobr]

Some news

General Braga Netto will be Jair Bolsonaro's running mate in the 2022 presidential election. Most of the army has far-right views, but Braga Netto is the closest general to Bolsonaro, even closer than General Hamilton Mourão, the present vice president.

Marina Silva will run for federal representative in the state of São Paulo, and not in her birth state Acre

Probably in the next days, Simone Tebet's running mate will be announced. She is the most important center-right candidate (and she polls between 1 and 2% now)

Former president Fernando Collor will run for governor of his home state Alagoas. He will probably loose, but his intent is no more than supporting Bolsonaro's presidential campaign. Presidential candidates need strong candidates for state governors, since many voters don't split the ticket. Collor will try to avoid a huge Lula's margin in Alagoas.

[Red Velvet]

DATAFOLHA Rio de Janeiro Governor poll

Cláudio Castro (Liberal Party, incumbent) - 23%
Marcelo Freixo (Brazilian Socialist Party) - 22%
Rodrigo Neves (Democratic Labour Party) - 7%
Eduardo Serra (Brazilian Communist Party) - 6%
Cyro Garcia (United Socialists Workers Party) - 5%
Colonel Emir Larangeira (Brazilian Woman Party) - 2%
Felipe Santa Cruz (Social Democratic Party) - 2%
Paulo Ganime (New Party) - 2%

Blank / Null / None - 22%
Undecided - 10%

[buritobr]

Datafolha Polls

Governor São Paulo
Marcio França running
Fernando Haddad (PT) 28%, Marcio França (PSB) 16%, Tarcísio (REP) 12%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 10%
Marcio França not running
Fernando Haddad (PT) 34%, Tarcísio (REP) 13%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 13%

Governor Minas Gerais
Zema (NOVO) 48%, Khalil (PSD) 21%


President

São Paulo (22% of the Brazilian population)
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 3%

Minas Gerais (10% of the Brazilian population)
Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Janones 3%, Simone Tebet 2%

Rio de Janeiro (8% of the Brazilian population)
Lula 41%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 2%

[buritobr]

This Datafolha poll showed also results for the capitals of the 3 most populous states

São Paulo-SP
Lula 50%, Jair Bolsonaro 22%, Ciro Gomes 11%, Simone Tebet 3%

Rio de Janeiro-RJ
Lula 44%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 3%

Belo Horizonte-MG
Lula 47%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 2%

If these results become real, São Paulo-SP will vote on the left of the country for the first time

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, July 2022

Bolsonaro's administration rating
positive 26%, regular 25%, negative 47%

1st round
Lula 45%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro Gomes 6%, Janones 2%, Simone Tebet 2%
runoff
Lula 53%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%

The results are stable. On July 2021 (one year ago), Bolsonaro's rating was positive 26%, regular 27%, negative 45%

full data here https://media-blog.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/05190133/genial-nas-eleicoes_pesquisa-para-presidente-2022_resultado-julho.pdf