Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

There are 12 months to the election, so, I created the thread, according to the rules of this Forum.

On October 2nd 2022, there will be election in Brazil for:

President
The president and the vice president are elected in the same ticket through national popular direct vote. If no candidate reaches >50% of the valid vote in the first round, there is a runoff on October 30th, in which the 2 candidates who had the biggest number of votes in the 1st round participate. Since Jair Bolsonaro is in his first term, he can run for reelection.

House
513 representatives are elected through an open list proportional representation system. The seats are allocated to the parties according to the proportion of votes the sum of their candidates receive. Each state has a number of seats according to its population, but there is a ceiling of 70 seats and a floor of 8 seats. If there was no celiing, São Paulo, the largest populated state would have 110 seats, and Roraima, Rondônia, Amapá and Acre would have fewer than 8 seats.

Senate
Each of 26 states and the Federal District has 3 senators. The senators, unlike other offices, have an 8 year term. But there are elections for the senate in every 4 years. So, in one election 2 senators from each state are elected, in the following one 1 senator is elected, in the following 2, in the following 1 and so on. In 2018, 2 senators from each state were elected. In 2022, 1 senator from each state will be elected. The senators are elected through a simple plurality vote. There is no runoff.

State governors
The 26 states and the Federal District elect there governors. The rules are the same of the election for president: a ticket including the governor and the vice governor is elected through direct popular vote. If no candidate reaches >50% in the 1st round, there is a runoff on October 30th.

State assemblies
The state representatives are elected through the same open list proportional representation system that exists at the federal level for the House.

[Not Me, Us]

When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?

[buritobr]

When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?

The campaign has a 45 day duration. So, the deadline for the subscription of candidates is ~August 15th.

[Red Velvet]

When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?

PSDB primaries to pick their candidate for president in 2022 will already happen in November 21st this year (runoff is November 28th).

It will be a close call between João Doria (Governor of São Paulo) and Eduardo Leite (Governor of Rio Grande do Sul).

On one hand, whoever leads São Paulo is naturally way more powerful because it’s the state that has the largest share of PSDB electorate, while still being the most important Brazilian State economically. João Doria also did well by bringing the Chinese vaccine and anticipating vaccination in the country in a moment the federal government was intentionally inert on the matter.

On the other, João Doria is considered a divisive figure inside the party by most people from other States and Eduardo Leite is currently gaining momentum by getting support from big names in the party who are from places outside São Paulo. There’s this idea from some that João Doria is all ego and not trustworthy leader for the party, besides not even being that popular in his own State. So it will likely be a close primary.

Both Eduardo Leite and João Doria are figures to the right of older and more moderate traditional figures from the party though (such as Geraldo Alckmin, who is likely leaving the party next year).

IMO, the difference between them is mostly opposition rhetoric against Bolsonaro. Doria wants to sell himself as hard opposition against the president since the vaccination process started, while Eduardo Leite is more of a discreet opposition that doesn’t go hard against Bolsonaro.

Eduardo Leite is also probably seen in the party as someone younger and good looking who will represent a new and more positive brand for PSDB. He’s also openly gay and if they want to modernize themselves as this socially open minded economically right-wing option, could be good option to reach more liberal minds. Although it also risks maybe pushing away some of the socially conservative voters, although I hope that the candidate sexuality matters less and less even for these people as time passes.

That said, no one should underestimate the power of being the most powerful Governor of the country, which is the position João Doria holds as the leader of São Paulo. It will probably be close.

Votes of the PSDB primary will be counted like this:

Group 1 (25% weight in the vote) - People who are filiated to the party
Group 2 (25% weight in the vote) - Mayors and Mayor’s VPs from the party
Group 3 (25% weight in the vote) - State deputies (12,5%) and City Council Members (12,5%) from the party
Group 4 (25% weight in the vote) - Governors, Governor’s VPs, Former Presidents and the current PSDB president, Senators and Federal Deputies.

The other major parties don’t have primaries but it’s pretty clear who they will run. Lula running for PT and Ciro Gomes running for PDT is practically confirmed, unless a major twist happens along the way.

Bolsonaro left his party a year after winning the 2018 election so he needs to join a new one in order to run. He is in talks to join PP, which is basically just another “Centrão” dull type of party that would benefit from having him in their ticket simply because he would bring his base alongside and that would mean more votes and seats to their party in the legislative candidacies as a natural consequence. Same thing that happened with PSL in 2018 (they weren’t far-right party, they only became one after accommodating Bolsonaro, which they did in order to grow bigger).

There are other minor names from people from other multiple parties but they are basically mostly irrelevant. When they run it’s mostly to mark their position and try to help the party get more national recognition and votes for the legislative seats.

There’s rumors of maybe Sergio Moro (former judge who jailed Lula and then joined Bolsonaro government as Justice minister, only to later resign because he suddenly “discovered” the government was a mess) running for some party but I strongly doubt it, unless he has some humiliating kink because he would get crushed left and right by both Lula and Bolsonaro. Losing AGAIN to both of them.

Moro already lost to Lula after the Supreme Court released him and gave him back his political rights, after leaks from Car-Wash operation revealed the operation had bias and openly targeted Lula specifically without respecting due process.

And Moro already lost to Bolsonaro, being used as a nice accessory as his minister in order to give Bolsonaro the political benefits as the protagonist of the “Anti corruption right”, just to be later discarded as trash when he wasn’t being useful anymore.

Would be fun to see that sh**tty corrupt ex-judge in his knees again, but I doubt it. He would be hailed as a mainstream media fave though, same way they treated him as a hero in the fake inquisition process against Lula.

Rede Globo media is mostly economically right-wing and socially progressive, which makes them hate the guts of both the top 2 leading candidates. They always hated Lula for being economically left-wing and they currently hate Bolsonaro too for being authoritarian extremist (which is not good for business).

But media support is practically kiss of death nowadays, few still trust or respect them. And they have only themselves to blame for that. Since I don’t think Moro will run, Globo will likely just back the PSDB candidate regardless if it’s João Doria or Eduardo Leite.

In the middle of all this you also have Ciro Gomes being the anti-Lula left-wing option, defending that the Lula government just kept the neoliberalism from previous administrations while just giving the poor minor stuff in order to get their support. Ciro correctly points out that deindustrialization advanced during PT’s governments, which were supposed to work for the working class.

Ciro isn't radically left-wing though, he would be basically same thing as Lula in government (Read this as: he would also be forced to compromise with corrupt centrists in congress). But Ciro would likely give more attention to a nationalist and developmentalist project than Lula, who is running mostly based on his political celeb status than necessarily on a clear project. At least for now.

I see the election basically as a Lula vs Bolsonaro for now. With Ciro wanting to be new Lula and PSDB having to get its right-wing protagonist spot back from Bolsonaro, since they lost most of their voters to him in 2018.

1st tier (the protagonists)
Lula
Bolsonaro

2nd tier (secondary actors trying to get the protagonist spot)
Ciro Gomes
PSDB - Eduardo Leite OR João Doria

3rd tier (extras in the background, mostly irrelevant)
Sérgio Moro
Everyone else (Datena, Mandetta, etc)

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1445775592486408198

Wasn't aware of this. Interesting. Who would they support in the elections, the PSDB candidate, Doria or Leite? Or present their own?

[buritobr]

Like any other party, when it is too early, probably União Brasil would say that they want an own candidate, in order to increase their bargaining power. But when the election gets closer, probably they will support Eduardo Leite and choose his running mate.
Eduardo Leite has now bigger support of the PSDB than João Dória.

[buritobr]

According to Brazilian law, it is mandatory to be a member of a political party in order to run for an elected office at least 6 months before the election.

Bolsonaro has no party because he is not a member of PSL anymore. Since the presidential election will take place on October 2nd, he has deadline until April 2nd in order to join a political party. Probably he will go back to Partido Progressista. Most of the time he was a representative, he was a member of this party. He had talks with leaders of Progressista.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

[Red Velvet]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

Way too early to tell, as there’s a whole year before the election, but it’s currently looking like that yeah.

I wouldn’t underestimate his chances that much though. Presidents always get blamed for everything bad that happens but they also get praised for every minimal good thing that happens.

If the situation miraculously gets better during 2022, I could see him with some chances. If not, he’s definitely losing though.

[buritobr]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

Way too early to tell, as there’s a whole year before the election, but it’s currently looking like that yeah.

I wouldn’t underestimate his chances that much though. Presidents always get blamed for everything bad that happens but they also get praised for every minimal good thing that happens.

If the situation miraculously gets better during 2022, I could see him with some chances. If not, he’s definitely losing though.

I think so too.

It is too early and all these 4 possibilies can happen. None can be eliminated 12 months before
1) Lula win
2) Bolsonaro reelected
3) Non-Bolsonaro right (or "third way") win
4) Lula doesn't run and other leftist win

[Red Velvet]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

Way too early to tell, as there’s a whole year before the election, but it’s currently looking like that yeah.

I wouldn’t underestimate his chances that much though. Presidents always get blamed for everything bad that happens but they also get praised for every minimal good thing that happens.

If the situation miraculously gets better during 2022, I could see him with some chances. If not, he’s definitely losing though.

I think so too.

It is too early and all these 4 possibilies can happen. None can be eliminated 12 months before
1) Lula win
2) Bolsonaro reelected
3) Non-Bolsonaro right (or "third way") win
4) Lula doesn't run and other leftist win

I want Bolsonaro to run in order for him to lose. Also to keep PSDB dead, there’s no “right-wing third way” that is possible with him being the protagonist of the right.

There’s the possibility that this MF just runs for congress though, same position he comfortably occupied for years and one that it’s easy to get elected for anyone with high name recognition. He would keep the privileged foro and the usual protections in order to escape judicial consequences, while carrying a bunch of crazy people into the congress with him because of the proportional voting.

[SnowLabrador]

Bolsonaro is going to win, because there is no justice in this world.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro is going to win, because there is no justice in this world.

Unless Brazilian economy starts miraculously a quick upwards swing and people get to really feel the effects, that’s largely questionable. Sounds like you want it to happen by the way you repeat it though  

If anything, all the world is suffering with post-Covid inflation and economy problems but it is looking they will be higher here. Bolsonaro is also terrible logistic planner and did nothing to counter the energy crisis that is right there on the door. The last nail on the government coffin would be the start of blackouts in big cities, something people aren’t used to seeing frequently since the end of FHC’s 2nd term, around 2001.

Even for stuff like a coup, you need some level of support and credibility, something he doesn’t have. I don’t underestimate the destructive power of his energetic base though, even if they decrease in numbers every new day. But everyone who tries anything will just be jailed and then ignored by Bolsonaro.

Like, Bolsonaro uses his supporters as expendable firing power against the institutions, but when there’s backlash he acts like they were just independent actors and that he had nothing to deal with them, as if he never stimulated their actions. It’s recurring Groundhog Day theme for the last three years where some cycle of the following happens:

- Bolsonaro feels he or his family is threatened by judiciary or legislative decisions unfavorable towards him.
- Bolsonaro uses authoritarian coup language that flirts with a constitutional break
- Paid online bots organize demonstrations in his support, in order to project strength
- Demonstrations happen with mixed results, not really big to intimidate others, not really small to assume they’re dead
- Some person or some group does something really stupid in these demonstrations though, maybe using neonazi symbols and wanting to throw bombs in the Supreme Court (Sara Winter) or more recently trying to organize a massive Truckers strike until a coup happens (Zé Trovão). I mention these two but there were lots of others, including an elected congressman from his base, who is now in jail (Daniel Silveira).
- Bolsonaro de-escalates his rhetoric in order to not face consequences and basically ignores those radical extremists loyal to him.
- These dumb supporters of him face judicial consequences and go to jail, while nothing happens to Bolsonaro himself.
- Bolsonaro stays quiet for several months after using these submissive trash supporters that he doesn’t even seem to respect, but repeats the process whenever he feels threatened again.

[buritobr]

Sergio Moro will join Podemos, which unlike the spanish one, is a small right-wing party in Brazil. The media told today that he will probably run for president.
The split of the non-Bolsonaro right-wing vote is good for Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll Rio de Janeiro for 2022, October 22th-26th 2021

Rio de Janeiro is Bolsonaro's home state. The left usually wins presidential elections in Rio de Janeiro, but Jair Bolsonaro won a landslide there in 2018.

President

Scenario 1
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 29%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 4%
Scenario 2
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Eduardo Leite 3%

Governor

Scenario 1
Marcelo Freixo (PSB, center-left): 25%
Claudio Castro (PL, incumbent governor, far-right, Bolsonaro's ally): 16%
Rodrigo Neves (PDT, center-left): 7%
Santa Cruz (center): 3%

Scenario 2
Marcelo Freixo (PSB, center-left): 23%
Mourão (PRTB, vice president, far-right): 17%
Claudio Castro (PL, incumbent governor, far-right, Bolsonaro's ally): 12%
Rodrigo Neves (PDT, center-left): 6%
Santa Cruz (center): 3%

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll November 2021

Scenario 1
Lula 42%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 11%, Doria 4%, Mandetta 3%, Rodrigo Pacheco 2%

Scenario 2
Lula 41%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Sergio Moro 8%, Mandetta 3%, Datena 3%, Eduardo Leite 3%, Rodrigo Pacheco 2%, Simone Tebet 1%

Runoff
Lula 50%, Jair Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 52%, Sergio Moro 34%
Lula 49%, Ciro Gomes 29%
Lula 51%, Doria 23%
Lula 50%, Leite 22%
Ciro Gomes 44%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Doria 40%, Jair Bolsonaro 35%
Leite 37%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%

[Red Velvet]

After majority of PDT in congress voted for the PEC of Precatórios (basically takes away Teachers money in order to finance Bolsonaro re-election dreams with a new social program), Ciro Gomes has put his presidential pre-candidature in suspension.

Good to add pressure on the party to change their position on the second round of the vote, I guess. Obviously this is also to distance himself from the party decision and not de-energize his base, which at this point is more in the party just because of Ciro.

I wonder what would happen if Ciro stayed on PSB some few years ago… Would PDT be what PSB is now (this neutral party where some big names are going to by default), or the same thing?

[buritobr]

After majority of PDT in congress voted for the PEC of Precatórios (basically takes away Teachers money in order to finance Bolsonaro re-election dreams with a new social program), Ciro Gomes has put his presidential pre-candidature in suspension.

Good to add pressure on the party to change their position on the second round of the vote, I guess. Obviously this is also to distance himself from the party decision and not de-energize his base, which at this point is more in the party just because of Ciro.

I wonder what would happen if Ciro stayed on PSB some few years ago… Would PDT be what PSB is now (this neutral party where some big names are going to by default), or the same thing?

Ciro Gomes changed his party many times because he always wanted to be in a party which is PT's ally, but it is not the PT. He ran for president in 1998 and 2002 as a PPS candidate. He left PPS because its leader Roberto Freire became a strong enemy of the PT. He joined PSB, but he left PSB after its leader Eduardo Campos decided to oppose to Dilma Rousseff's administration. Than Ciro Gomes moved to PROS, and finnaly he moved to PDT. Now, Ciro Gomes doesn't want a PT's ally anymore.
I think Ciro Gomes didn't take inteligent decisions. The probability of being elected is bigger in a major party. 1989 and 2018 were exceptions. Ciro Gomes should have stayed in the PSDB or he should have moved to the PT and tried to find an important place in one of these parties.

[buritobr]

Since Bolsonaro left his former party PSL in 2019, he isn't member of any party now. But it is necessary to be a member of a party in order to run for the reelection.
Today, the media showed that Jair Bolsonaro will become a member of the Partido Liberal (PL).

[Continential]

Since Bolsonaro left his former party PSL in 2019, he isn't member of any party now. But it is necessary to be a member of a party in order to run for the reelection.
Today, the media showed that Jair Bolsonaro will become a member of the Partido Liberal (PL).

Why did he leave PSL?

[Red Velvet]

After majority of PDT in congress voted for the PEC of Precatórios (basically takes away Teachers money in order to finance Bolsonaro re-election dreams with a new social program), Ciro Gomes has put his presidential pre-candidature in suspension.

Good to add pressure on the party to change their position on the second round of the vote, I guess. Obviously this is also to distance himself from the party decision and not de-energize his base, which at this point is more in the party just because of Ciro.

I wonder what would happen if Ciro stayed on PSB some few years ago… Would PDT be what PSB is now (this neutral party where some big names are going to by default), or the same thing?

I think Ciro Gomes didn't take inteligent decisions. The probability of being elected is bigger in a major party. 1989 and 2018 were exceptions. Ciro Gomes should have stayed in the PSDB or he should have moved to the PT and tried to find an important place in one of these parties.

PSDB has moved too right-wing to fit his national developmentalist project and PT, well, there’s the Lula factor. Ciro really wants to win by himself and at the same time, I think Lula wouldn’t want him as his sucessor in the same way like Dilma (or even Haddad).

Ciro has a big ego that the only politician that matches him on that regard is Lula himself. That can be a positive, I think the best presidents tend to be the ones who really want it in a personal level in order to show they’re capable and worthy (unlike the ones who want power just for the sake of it), but also puts him in direct conflict with Lula.

In PT I don’t think he would be presidential material, they would make him run to senate because they wouldn’t even want him as VP (which is something that only really goes to someone with Centrão connections OR someone who loves Lula).

So I think Ciro is doing the only path that is possible for what he craves to achieve. PDT isn’t perfect party since some of these centrão-like people started to get in, but it’s still something you can work with well (a Cidadania or an Avante would be much much worse). Like:

PSDB or more right-wing options —> Too right-wing to welcome Ciro ideas on industrialization and national economic development. At most Ciro can get some of their support for elections and that’s already being too generous because he isn’t established name that could pull this off like Lula (who wants freaking Alckmin as his VP and because it’s Lula, it’s not even crazy to consider that possibility lol). OR Ciro would need to abandon his project which would be electoral suicide because his base is energized about his project.

CIDADANIA or AVANTE —> Would have the same problems as PDT but elevated to even more absurd degrees. They’re also too small parties that don’t have consolidated ideological base, which is a problem in order to organize AND energize a base centered on Ciro only.

PDT or PSB —> I think those are the ONLY ones where Ciro fits, although PSB is shaping itself more ideologically with these left people who are sympathetic to Lula but know they won’t have the political leverage with them if they join PT

PT, PCdoB —> Lula has too large influence there. Ciro would need to suck up and just be the bridesmaid hoping one day maybe her time will finally come. Which let’s face it, it would be never. When Lula passes out, Ciro will be too old to run.

PSOL —> Ciro is probably too politically incorrect in his rhetoric and too Anti-Lula to do anything there after they opted to be a pro-Lula party with the Boulos influence. I think old PSOL, with founding figure Heloísa Helena who was even more critical of Lula than Ciro, would be interesting ally but they aren’t that same party anymore and are becoming what PCdoB is.

Ciro best option is to stay in PDT and try to change it, while trying to establish this Anti-Lula center left in the same way there was a Lula-Brizola conflict in the old days. His chances are still very small because Lula has probably grown to be something too large in order to be taken out by a new alternative from a similar ideological field, but they would be worse elsewhere.

[Red Velvet]

Since Bolsonaro left his former party PSL in 2019, he isn't member of any party now. But it is necessary to be a member of a party in order to run for the reelection.
Today, the media showed that Jair Bolsonaro will become a member of the Partido Liberal (PL).

Why did he leave PSL?

Conflict between the liberal and conservative factions of the party. The liberal faction won the internal war, so he (and his more loyal allies) had to leave.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll November 2021
Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 21%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, João Doria 2%, Rodrigo Pacheco 1%
Runoff: Lula 57%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%

[buritobr]

Poll O Tempo November 3rd

Minas Gerais

Governor
Zema (Novo, incumbent governor) 45.1%, Khalil (PSD) 22.5%

President
Lula 39.7%, Bolsonaro 22.0%, Sergio Moro 5.1%, Ciro Gomes 3.6%

In Minas Gerais, the results are always close to the national results

[Red Velvet]

Quaest Poll November 2021
Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 21%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, João Doria 2%, Rodrigo Pacheco 1%
Runoff: Lula 57%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%

Considering valid votes only (excluding the 14% that are null/blanks/abstentions), this is >50% for Lula which would mean an outright win on the 1st round without the need for a runoff. Same poll but considering only valid votes:

Lula 56%
Bolsonaro 24%
Moro 9%
Ciro 7%
Doria 2%
Pacheco 1%

Runoff: Lula 68% vs Bolsonaro 32%