Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

New IPESPE poll:

Lula (PT) 44%
Bolsonaro (PL) 32%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 8%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%
André Janones (Avante) 2%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 1%

[buritobr]

Gregório Duvivier, the brazilian John Oliver, tried to convince potential Ciro Gomes voters that it is very important that Lula wins in the first round. This comedian gave a tatical vote for Ciro Gomes in 2018, because polls showed that he was doing better against Bolsonaro in the runoff than Fernando Haddad, and now he says that potential Ciro Gomes voters should give a tatical vote for Lula
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXsGL6uCoU4

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll May 7th-10th

Minas Gerais

Governor: Zema (incumbent, Bolsonaro's candidate) 41%, Khalil (Lula's candidate) 30%
President: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 5%
President runoff: Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 32%


Quaest Poll May 12th-15th

Rio de Janeiro
Governor: Claudio Castro (incumbent, Bolsonaro's candidate) 26%, Freixo (Lula's candidate) 19%
Senator: Romário (former soccer player, Bolsonaro's candidate) 19%, Crivela 11%, Molon (possible Lula's candidate) 10%
President: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 6%
President runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 38%

[Red Velvet]

I miss when Rio was the positive cultural trailblazer in Brazilian politics. It’s the exact opposite now. From the “leftiest” one in the Southeast/the country as a whole to the one of the Southeast more likely to go for Bolsonaro (more than São Paulo!).

And the thing is, I really get it. I get why a harsh-on-crime rhetoric (even when it also has no solutions), combined with the advance of evangelical protestant religion in the state, has strong appeal here since solutions presented by everyone else clearly only contributed to the city/state decadence. This is something that matters for the average person, not elites scared about poor people like some of the left rhetoric sometimes makes it sound.

So much that the electoral logic in Rio is opposite from São Paulo and other places and that people usually take as the standard. The “wealthier” areas in Rio usually vote for Freixo / Eduardo Paes (the leftier option compared to who they were running against) while “poorer” areas voted for Crivella.

There’s a reason why people from other states look down on Rio so much nowadays and it’s not just resentment due to Rio being the image of the country sold in the exterior. But because it’s really embarrassing to have the state being the country postcard these days. As I carioca, I don’t like it either tbh, at least not with the treatment politicians (on all levels) have given to the city.

Most of Rio belongs to police militias or traffickers these days and no politician has the guts to do anything about it. Government has only control over Zona Sul, Centro and also the Tijuca neighborhood, everywhere else they don’t even pretend to. You either live in those places or in a gated fancy community/apartment in Barra or Recreio isolated from all the rest of the world. Or else the city you live in isn’t run by the elected leaders.

I love Rio and live in a good location but even I don’t want to live my entire life here when thinking about it. I keep thinking about moving somewhere like São Paulo or Curitiba in the future one day if I have the chance. Rio is a dream but you gotta live in the “right” places and even then deal with the constant signs of violence in your door, which even if nothing ever happens, you know it’s there.

A lot of the left political rhetoric on crime is really misguided and destructive to their own interests because it’s not just rich people who care about security matters at all. Average people feel safer with big police presence and that’s something that is even stronger in Rio tbh because of the violence surround and the insecurity vibes in the air

[buritobr]

Lula got married today. Social scientist Rosângela Silva (Janja) became his 3rd wife. His 1st one, Maria de Lourdes, died in 1971 while giving birth. The baby didn't survive too. His 2nd one, Marisa Letícia, died of cancer in 2017.
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1527091423585107968

[buritobr]

Exame Ideia Poll May 14th-19th
Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 9%
runoff: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 39%

XP/Ipespe Poll May 16th-18th
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 8%
runoff: Lula 53%, Bolsonaro 34%

After a slight Lula's decline and Bolsonaro's rise from December 2021 to April 2022, the results were stable from April 2022 to May 2022.

Lula is doing much better in Ipespe poll. This poll looks like reliable. In the sample, 46% of the people voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018 and 35% voted for Haddad. These numbers are close to the actual result.
https://static.poder360.com.br/2022/05/pesquisa-xpipespe.pdf

[buritobr]

Today, Jair Bolsonaro met Elon Musk



But I don't believe this meeting will have any impact in the electoral campaign

[RodPresident]

Lula got married today. Social scientist Rosângela Silva (Janja) became his 3rd wife. His 1st one, Maria de Lourdes, died in 1971 while giving birth. The baby didn't survive too. His 2nd one, Marisa Letícia, died of cancer in 2017.
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1527091423585107968

Marisa Leticia died due to stroke, not cancer

[President Johnson]

Today, Jair Bolsonaro met Elon Musk



But I don't believe this meeting will have any impact in the electoral campaign

That movie was total flop, lmao.

[Red Velvet]

That meeting was photo op only, they barely talked about stuff lol. It was a business trip with a quick stop to meet politicians. Way too exaggerated attention by the media.

[Red Velvet]

Doria (PSDB) officially OUT of the presidential run after many internal fights in that party.

The most likely thing now that people are saying is that for the first time since redemocratization, PSDB won’t have a presidential candidate and they will get behind Simone Tebet (MDB) candidature even though she polls around 1% right now.

They have accepted the irrelevance their party became after inflating the rhetoric of national politics and shooting themselves in the foot by making their voters shift to a more radical candidate like Bolsonaro.

The run is shaping itself to be basically just Lula and Bolsonaro, with best chance of people who are not into either is going with Ciro Gomes, who is in third place around 8% in the polls.

I imagine Tebet (MDB) has some small potential of growth after Doria giving up but he was with 3%, so at most she gets to 4% in the immediate future? I don’t think anyone outside those 4 has chance of making more than 5% in the elections, but will be interesting to see how Ciro and Tebet handle being the biggest 3rd-way options, still very distant from the top 2 candidates. But the reduction of 3rd way options benefits them even if at most optimistic scenario I see only Ciro reaching 15% if everyone else in that category gives up, including André Janones who he disputes some votes with.

[buritobr]

The film "Don't Look Up" has lots of fans in Brazil because of the paralell that could be made to the Covid pandemic in Brazil.
The screenplay was written in 2019, before the pandemic. The asteroid was an analogy to the global warming. President Janie Orlean (Meryl Streep) was similar to Donald Trump: a smart person who creates a image of a dumb person in order to have politican gains. She isn't like Jair Bolsonaro because the brazilian president is really dumb.
But still, we have some paralell to the pandemic in Brazil. There was a scene in the film which is almost equal to the real life in Brazil. In the film, scientist Kate Dibiasky (Jennifer Lawrence) became angry during a TV show because many people don't care about the asteroid. In the real life in Brazil, some months before the release of the film, scientist Natalia Pasternak became angry during a TV show because many people don't wear mask. The scene was almost equal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nZFVZnolD8
And since Peter Isherwell (Mark Rylance) is almost an Elon Musk's copy, the real meeting between Bolsonaro and Musk after the film became funny.

I think "Don't Look Up" was more sucessful in Brazil than it was in other countries. I didn't see many comments on this film outside Brazil.

[buritobr]

Datafolha May 24th-25th 2022

Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Since Sergio Moro and João Doria declined to run, they were already excluded


Datafolha is conducted through interviewing people at streets. This kind of pool is better for Lula and worse for Bolsonaro than polls conducted through cell phones.

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha runoff scenarios:

Lula (PT) 55% vs Bolsonaro (PL) 33%
Lula (PT) 55% vs Ciro Gomes (PDT) 29%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 52% vs Bolsonaro (PL) 36%

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha Name ID recognition poll:

Lula: 99% of voters know him (70% a lot + 17% somewhat + 12% a little)
Bolsonaro: 98% of voters know him (58% a lot + 23% somewhat + 17% a little)
Ciro Gomes: 91% of voters know him (30% a lot + 28% somewhat + 33% a little)

Everyone else is mostly unknown to the public yet, having 40% or less of name recognition.

DataFolha Rejection poll (% who say they would NEVER vote for said candidate):

Bolsonaro - 54% of Brazilians would never vote for him
Lula - 33% of Brazilians would never vote for him
Ciro Gomes - 19% of Brazilians would never vote for him

Everyone else has either 11% rejection or less.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Bolsonaro: 98% of voters know him (58% a lot + 23% somewhat + 17% a little)

Happy people still exist!

[buritobr]

Forecast of the red and blue states according to the most recent polls. The gray states are the undefined ones


São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul are gray only because a not very reliable poll showed Bolsonaro leading in these states. Otherwise, they would be red.

https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1531732089070141447

[Mike88]

A bit of comic relief: Not a bad candidate this new one, IMO:

https://twitter.com/inimigo/status/1532752741205958656

[buritobr]

A bit of comic relief: Not a bad candidate this new one, IMO:

https://twitter.com/inimigo/status/1532752741205958656

Doesn't need to be a third party. The monarchists are pro-Bolsonaro. One member of the Orleans e Bragança family is a congressman in his party.

[Mike88]

Doesn't need to be a third party. The monarchists are pro-Bolsonaro. One member of the Orleans e Bragança family is a congressman in his party.

Didn't the heir, or something, died in the Air France crash in 2009? I remember something like that being reported. Anyway, the joke is that D Pedro's heart would beat both Lula and Bolsonaro easily, probably. The heart thing is being news here because Brazil asked the heart to be translated due to the 200th anniversary of Brazil's independence, but the organization that preserves the heart, Lapa Church in Porto city, isn't too fond of the idea.

Also, that congressman is from the PSL or PL? Or was he PSL, but because "Mr Messias" changed parties, he also changed?

[buritobr]

Congressman Luiz Philippe de Orléans e Bragança is in PL now
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Philippe_de_Orl%C3%A9ans_e_Bragan%C3%A7a

Yes, I saw it, brazilian government is asking Pedro's heart in order to celebrate the 200 years of the independence

[Red Velvet]

This is isn’t a story here, probably more of a Bolsonaro government thing since the small monarchist fringe that exists support him. But I wouldn’t trust any historical thing on his hands at all. We all know how right-wingers, especially Bolsonaro, treat with care historical stuff lol

First the Museu Nacional, then the Cinemateca Brasileira… All due to lack of government care and investment. If it was any other government here I would trust to lend this stuff, but not the Bolsonaro one lol

Fun fact: in 1993 Brazil had a referendum to decide with type of government we would have after the military dictatorship ended in 1985, since a common narrative from the monarchists is that the proclamation of the republic in 1889 was a coup and that Brazil Empire days (1822-1889, the period after the independence and before the proclamation of republic) were much better lmao

Results were:
Republic 86,6% vs Monarchy 13,4%
Presidentialism 69,2% vs Parliamentarism 30,8%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Brazilian_constitutional_referendum

This is cute video with a brief resume of the country history (Brazil Empire days are between 7:51 and 11:25):

[Red Velvet]

PT is the only party with structural support in Brazil, making them the default average leaders of the country.

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1533254389561020417
Even in their worst moment, around 2015, they were leading these polls with around 9%. They’re now polling 22%, when Brazilians are questioned if there’s a party they identify with.

All the existence of Bolsonaro and everything coming from the right in this country since the Lula government has been PT protagonism as well, as their only motivation is preventing PT to come to power. But they don’t really have any actual party support or clear vision for the country, it’s all about defeating PT.

The way PSDB collapsed so easily in exchange of a crazy barbecue uncle like Bolsonaro is evidence of how weak and fluid this support is. Meanwhile, so far it has been impossible to break the PT.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, June 2nd-5th 2022

Bolsonaro's administration rating
Positive 25%, Neutral 26%, Negative 47%

First round
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 32%

full data of the poll here https://media-blog.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/07233729/genial-nas-eleicoes_pesquisa-para-presidente-2022_resultado-junho.pdf

In June 1994, Lula was leading the polls, but Fernando Henrique Cardoso won in October. He was minister of Finance, and his Real Plan was sucessful in curbing the double digit monthly inflation.
In all other presidential elections since 1989, the candidate who was leading the polls in June won the election. People decide earlier for president.
In the elections for governor and senator sudden shifts in the last weak are usual. But not in presidential elections.

[Flyersfan232]

PT is the only party with structural support in Brazil, making them the default average leaders of the country.

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1533254389561020417
Even in their worst moment, around 2015, they were leading these polls with around 9%. They’re now polling 22%, when Brazilians are questioned if there’s a party they identify with.

All the existence of Bolsonaro and everything coming from the right in this country since the Lula government has been PT protagonism as well, as their only motivation is preventing PT to come to power. But they don’t really have any actual party support or clear vision for the country, it’s all about defeating PT.

The way PSDB collapsed so easily in exchange of a crazy barbecue uncle like Bolsonaro is evidence of how weak and fluid this support is. Meanwhile, so far it has been impossible to break the PT.

how have pt avoided this and can that last long after Lula is gone?