Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

New IPESPE poll:

Lula (PT): 45%
Bolsonaro (PL): 31%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 8%
João Doria (PSDB): 3%

[Red Velvet]

Runoff scenarios from IPESPE:

Lula 54% - Bolsonaro 34%
Lula 52% - Ciro 24%
Lula 55% - Doria 19%
Ciro 46% - Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 39% - Doria 38%

Considering valid votes only (excluding nulls/blanks/abstentions) that translates to:

Lula 61% - Bolsonaro 39%
Lula 68% - Ciro 32%
Lula 74% - Doria 26%
Ciro 55%% - Bolsonaro 45%
Bolsonaro 51% - Doria 49%

[Red Velvet]

More important than those polls is the Vote probability that IPESPE also measures and is better to see how many are open to voting for a specific candidate. This image shows the results:

https://www.twitter.com/joaoclaudiobonf/status/1517609266575781888

Dark Blue - Would for sure vote for the candidate
Light Blue - Could vote for the candidate (Is open to the possibility)
Red - Wouldn’t vote for the candidate
Yellow - Doesn’t know enough about the candidate

Combined Blue bars indicates the vote ceiling each candidate has and confirmes the Lula > Ciro > Bolsonaro > Doria potential that the runoff polls show.

Vote Ceiling (Dark + Light Blue bars):

Lula 56%
Ciro 51%
Bolsonaro 37%
Doria 34%

Notice how most of the Bolsonaro bar s Dark Blue, indicating he’s already too close to his ceiling and can’t grow too much unless his rejection were to suddenly diminish.

Rejection (Red bar):

Bolsonaro 61%
Doria 55%
Ciro 44%
Lula 42%

All the other candidates outside the top 4 are still too unknown for people to have a clear opinion of them, so I left them out as their Yellow Bars occupy most of their graphics.

[buritobr]

New EXAME/IDEIA poll shows Bolsonaro closing the gap on the 1st round.

Scenario with Doria:

Lula (PT) 42%
Bolsonaro (PL) 33%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%

Scenario with Leite (yup internal fighting even after primaries):

Lula (PT) 43%
Bolsonaro (PL) 34%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 4%

Everyone else has either 1% or less than that. Now with Sergio Moro out of the race, it’s natural to Bolsonaro to go up as he is the closest option to inherit his voters.

Last poll from this institute from 1 month ago included all of Moro (dropped out) and Leite and Doria (still a bit uncertain who will be PSDB candidate even if most likely it’s Doria). It was:

Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 29%
Sérgio Moro 9%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Eduardo Leite 2%
João Doria 1%

This same Exame/Ideia poll

Abortion
55%: should remain a crime
38%: should not be considered a crime anymore

Good news. Some time ago, the margin against the legalization of the abortion was much higher. Now, I believe the left-wing candidates can be safe in supporting pro-choice views. 55% are against, but we can imagine that the number of people who consider this a very important issue in order to vote is much smaller. People who only vote for candidates against legal abortion will already vote for the right anyway.

[Red Velvet]

Holy s***

38% Brazilians being pro-choice is a victory. I’m sure a mainstream popular figure like Lula being in support of those policies make them less of a taboo. Which it was good for him to support it a while back, even if I was scared as hell for being an election year.

I think Brazil is ready for this to be talked about more openly (which doesn’t mean opposition won’t make a loud scandal about it). In the next few years this will be a done thing just like Argentina and Colombia recently did it. Happy that policy favoring abortion rights is advancing so much in the world.

[buritobr]

Ibovespa fell more than 2% on Friday April 22nd, after Bolsonaro had conceeded pardon to the representative Daniel Silveira. It means that the financial markets considered that the probability of Bolsonaro's reelection decreased.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm happy for Brazil for probably getting legal abortion, but it's hugely depressing that this happens as the US is about to criminalize it nationwide.

[Red Velvet]

Ibovespa fell more than 2% on Friday April 22nd, after Bolsonaro had conceeded pardon to the representative Daniel Silveira. It means that the financial markets considered that the probability of Bolsonaro's reelection decreased.

Bolsonaro isn’t winning, his rejection levels have been extremely stable. I think this year is unusual in the sense most people have made up their minds already in their opinions of the candidates.

The vote probability poll shows his ceiling is at max 37% and he’s currently at 31%. Not much room for the growth he needs.

It would take a big new development to change people’s perceptions. The more interesting question is how Bolsonaro would react to a loss. I doubt he would just accept it.

[buritobr]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

Brazilian left-wingers implying that Macron beating Le Pen -> Lula beating Bolsonaro is top-tier Atlas posting.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

Brazilian left-wingers implying that Macron beating Le Pen -> Lula beating Bolsonaro is top-tier Atlas posting.

Let us know what you think when Bolsonaro wins.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

Brazilian left-wingers implying that Macron beating Le Pen -> Lula beating Bolsonaro is top-tier Atlas posting.

Let us know what you think when Bolsonaro wins.

I don't think Bolsonaro will win. I also don't think that Macron beating Le Pen is proof he will lose.

[brucejoel99]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

Brazilian left-wingers implying that Macron beating Le Pen -> Lula beating Bolsonaro is top-tier Atlas posting.

Let us know what you think when Bolsonaro wins.

I don't think Bolsonaro will win. I also don't think that Macron beating Le Pen is proof he will lose.

I also think that buritobr was doing nothing more than pointing out mere coincidences, so if you actually think that he legitimately argued - as a Brazilian leftist - that Macron beating Le Pen is proof that he'll lose, then Idk what to tell you.

[Red Velvet]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

Brazilian left-wingers implying that Macron beating Le Pen -> Lula beating Bolsonaro is top-tier Atlas posting.

It’s cool how there could be parallels between Brazilian and French elections in 2002 and 2022, if Lula wins. More like a fun fact of “history repeats itself” than a serious prediction of cause-consequence.

I mean, 20 years passed and we still have a Le Pen losing elections after the French unite to defeat them and Lula potentially winning elections in Brazil. Not much has changed lol.

It’s also what brings people optimism these days here, to think 2022 is the new 2002 and once Lula assumes, everything will be as great as it was in the 00s. Clear “savior” coming to put order in the house hopes going on.

Which is more optimism than something based on concrete stuff. No one knows what a new Lula government would be like in the new national and international contexts. This is good now because all kinds of different people are just projecting on him what they wish lmao

Like, the idea of what Lula represents can vary between a far-leftist who will do all sorts of pro-worker reforms to a neoliberal hack who will keep with the Temer-Bolsonaro agendas. Same thing with international positions. And the campaign is deliberately non-specific / cloudy in order to facilitate this kind of broad projection from many segments of the electorate.

The projection is also due to a lot of anti-Bolsonaro exhaustion. People just want to get rid of him quick so the guy defeating him on polls becomes this non-specific abstract idea of everything they want.

One thing that worries me is that he’s about to get to 77 years old, I think. If we’re talking about 8 more years, he would leave office in his mid-80s. So it’s likely that it is last decade the “left” can be lazy and just rely on Lula.

From 2030 onwards, there will need to exist serious renovation, be it with PT or without PT. Don’t force successors, let them emerge naturally and focus on strengthening parties and their agenda connection with their base.

Doesn’t have to be a specific party as long as they have clear messaging. Be it PSOL conforming towards a more liberal social issues focused agenda; PDT embracing a more clear left-nationalist defense agenda that dialogues with the center, REDE being a more environmentalist focused option; PT keeping the class conciliation project social welfare project that attempts to have broad class appeal… Hopefully PCB and PSTU can grow as well to occupy a more revolutionary unapologetic position that has been missing as well.

Doesn’t matter which party emerges after Lula, important is for all of them to keep strong ID and base connection. I’m okay with PSB being the confusing big tent dump that embraces all type of left/center/liberal candidates as long as the others focus on a specific niche and message clearly to the left.

[Red Velvet]

New BTG/FSB poll measures the different uncertainties regarding PSDB (will they even run a candidate? If so, will it really be Doria?)

Main Scenario:
Lula (PT) 41%
Bolsonaro (PL) 32%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%
André Janones (Avante) 3%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 1%

Scenario 2 (without Doria):
Lula 39%
Bolsonaro 31%
Ciro Gomes 13%
André Janones 4%
Simone Tebet 2%

Scenario 3 (with Leite, no Tebet)
Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Eduardo Leite 3%
André Janones 3%


Runoff scenarios:

Lula 52% vs Bolsonaro 37% (Lula +15)
Lula 48% vs Ciro Gomes 27% (Lula +21)
Lula 52% vs Doria 19% (Lula + 33)
Lula 52% vs Leite 22% (Lula +30)
Lula 51% vs Tebet 22% (Lula +29)
Ciro Gomes 46% vs Bolsonaro 39% (Ciro +7)
Bolsonaro 40% vs Doria 39% (Bolsonaro +1)
Bolsonaro 41% vs Leite 37% (Bolsonaro +4)
Bolsonaro 41% vs Tebet 37% (Bolsonaro +4)

Both Lula and Bozo with fixed variant of 4% in the runoff. Lula between 48%-52% with all candidates and Bolsonaro with 37%-41%

[buritobr]

I was talking about coincidences between 2002 and 2022, and not about equivalence between the 2022 french presidential election and the 2022 brazilian presidential election. As I wrote in a thread in International General Discussion, Jair Bolsonaro is not Marine Le Pen. And Lula is not Emmanuel Macron. If you want to make a paralell between Lula and a french candidate in 2022, I think he is like Anne Hidalgo on domestic policy and Mélenchon on foreign policy.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1519466911775563777

[buritobr]

Leonardo di Caprio tweeted in order to give an incentive for 16-17 year old Brazilians to register to vote. For this age group, voting is allowed, but not mandatory.
https://twitter.com/LeoDiCaprio/status/1519767667363790848

[Red Velvet]

Leonardo di Caprio tweeted in order to give an incentive for 16-17 year old Brazilians to register to vote. For this age group, voting is allowed, but not mandatory.
https://twitter.com/LeoDiCaprio/status/1519767667363790848

Not just him, Anitta, Mark Ruffalo and Burguer King (company owned by Brazilians) also entered the same campaign asking for youth participation.

[Red Velvet]

Mark Ruffalo has an interesting for Brazil in particular or just global politics in general?

In 2014 I remember he endorsed Marina Silva during the campaign because she’s the face of environmentalism in this country, only to drop his endorsement later after PT/Dilma supporters  portrayed Marina as homophobic-friendly because of her evangelical religion.

Man, PT people are masters of victimizing their candidates as hell whenever people like Ciro adopt aggressive rhetoric against them, but nothing will come close to the utter image destruction that happened with Marina in the 2014 campaign. It was the last presidential campaign she was relevant:

2010 - 19,33%
2014 - 21,32% (She was once over 30% during the campaign, before the image deconstruction she went through by PT supporters)
2018 - 1,00%
2022 - not running

Internationally, you notice that she’s one of the more respected politicians we have because of her green stances. It’s sad and bad for the country that she feels like something of the past when just after her surprise 2010 results everyone saw her as the future of politics in the country.

That being said, everyone is focus of slander campaign after they get on the spotlight and it doesn’t necessarily sticks. Only reason it worked with her is that she lacked a strong rhetoric that rebuffed the stuff being said, she always talked with a calm conciliatory tone even when being dragged and that actually collaborated to the image PT supporters were creating of undecided no-ideology woman who wants to satisfy all sides.

They try to pull same thing with Ciro for example but the reason why it doesn’t really stick is that he attacks way more than gets put in this defensive position. Which is why the most common attack from them is “Ciro is too aggressive/unstable to be president” or “Ciro abstained in the 2018 runoff and went to Paris”.

After what happened to Marina, it’s clear that the more confrontational position is only possible path for dissident left / center-left sectors in order to gain visibility. Embrace the aggressive / angry / non-conformed label. Otherwise you’re perceived as not sure of your positions, like the campaign against Marina sold.

This is something I wish sectors to PT’s left were doing it to gain more ideological backbone. Would be cool to see PSOL being replaced with more people from PSTU / PCB / UP. With that millennial Juliano Medeiros leading the party and calling older people who actually fought against a dictatorship in our country as “left fascists” for not being as woke as them, I would rather have PSOL lose relevance in the left tbh.

Being a militant against the dictatorship in the 70s when people could get tortured for it, member of a clandestine Communist party that wasn’t allowed to exist = Left-wing fascist

Being an arrogant prick on Twitter adopting anticommunist rhetoric not to push for their agenda, but to weaken other left-wing ones = Left-wing fighter

I need the communist and nationalist sectors of the left to organize to get more relevance asap because I refuse to keep voting for these woke revolutionaries that the right loves only because they’re useful to them. There’s only one side I trust to actually fight against fascism if situation ever gets dire and that’s not the politically correct and “respectable” clean left from Twitter at all.

I’m seriously considering looking for PCB and PSTU options for the first time ever simply because I don’t want to vote for PSOL anymore. At least not with the path they chosen since 2018 and the Juliano Medeiros leadership.

If PCB/PSTU/UP could get at least ONE, hopefully TWO seats in congress it would be already a massive victory considering how fringe they have been so far. Closer to the campaign I will give preferential treatment to those parties and if there’s no one I want to vote for, I will still vote for PDT/PT/PSB over PSOL again in the legislative.

President: Ciro (PDT) if Lula has up to 45% (not in valid votes, overall votes); Lula (PT) if he has more than 45% just before the 1st round
Governor: Marcelo Freixo (PSB)
Senate: Whoever from PDT/PT/PSB is more viable there
Federal Congress: Someone from PCB/PSTU/UP
State Congress: Someone from PCB/PSTU/UP

Regarding the polling I am using as a parameter for my president vote decision, it will be DATAFOLHA and IPEC polls only, not considering others.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro responds to the Leonardo DiCaprio tweet:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1520154376374874113

[Red Velvet]

Lula defends an unified Latin American currency.

I like the idea but it’s something that should happen gradually. Maybe start first with Mercosur countries only (Brazil-Argentina-Uruguay-Paraguay) and then later I can see it being eventually viable to expand it to Bolivia and Venezuela but only once (or if) the political/economical situation in the latter stabilizes.

And then one day mayyyybe we could form some integration with the pacific countries (Colombia-Ecuador-Peru-Chile) as well in a more distant future if things work out. So that this works for all South American continent, kinda like the Euro works in Europe. And then in an even more distant future we can start thinking of a currency integration with Mexico and the Central American and Caribbean countries.

[Senator Incitatus]

Leonardo di Caprio tweeted in order to give an incentive for 16-17 year old Brazilians to register to vote. For this age group, voting is allowed, but not mandatory.
https://twitter.com/LeoDiCaprio/status/1519767667363790848

Why did he tweet this instead of just telling his girlfriends himself?

[buritobr]

Lula and Alckmin listening to the anthem "The International" in the opening of the PSB congress https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_UzyczyaJA

It would be weird to think 2 years ago about Alckmin listening to the International. And I don't know why did PSB decide to use this anthem. PSB is a center-left party closer to the center than to the left.

[PSOL]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.