Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

NEW Datafolha poll coming right from the oven:

Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 22%
Sérgio Moro 9%
Ciro Gomes 7%
João Doria 4%
Blank/null 8%
Don’t Know 2%

Very close numbers to IPEC, showing that this is the actual scenario. Also indicates a Lula outright victory on the 1st round, if you count only the valid votes.

[buritobr]

This Sunday evening, there was a dinner in which many left/center-left/center/center-right politicians participated. Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, Geraldo Alckmin, Márcio França, Marcelo Freixo, Simone Tebet, Rodrigo Garcia, Marília Arraes, Fernando Haddad, Rui Costa, Alessandro Molon, Randolfe Rodrigues, Gleisi Hoffmann, Aloizio Mercadante, Marta, Rodrigo Maia, Omar Aziz, Arthur Virgílio, Alessandro Molon, Gilberto Kassab, Paulinho da Força were there. It's nice to see that the talks concerning an anti-far-right broad front for 2022 are advanced.

[buritobr]

It´s getting closer!
If a couple produces a baby today, this baby will born in the day of the first round

[DC Al Fine]

Her: Talk dirty to me

Him:

If a couple produces a baby today, this baby will born in the day of the first round

[buritobr]

Datafolha, December 13th-16th 2021

Partisan preference
PT 28%
PSDB 2%
MDB 2%
PDT 1%
PSOL 1%
PL 1%
No preferred party 54%

Only PT has preference. The others are tied with zero in the margin of error.
Most of the people who have no preferred party is right-wing.

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha, December 13th-16th 2021

Partisan preference
PT 28%
PSDB 2%
MDB 2%
PDT 1%
PSOL 1%
PL 1%
No preferred party 54%

Only PT has preference. The others are tied with zero in the margin of error.
Most of the people who have no preferred party is right-wing.

Highest result for PT since 2013, which is when those street protests started and their preference started to fall. In April 2012 they had 31%, nearly one third of Brazilians being declared PT supporters.

Even in their lowest, during the last 8 years, they still easily maintained the #1 position though. In March 2015 and December 2016 PT preference reached 9%, their lowest in the century and their personal lowest since 1989. But even then that was still enough to be higher than any other parties since none of them has an actual organized base lol.

People who prefer the PT in the last 10 years:

April 2012 - 31%
March 2013 - 29%
June 2013 - 19% (month of the bus fare protests and start of all of Brazil’s following political chaos)
March 2015 - 9%
December 2016 - 9%
April 2017 - 15%
October 2017 - 19%
April 2018 - 20%
August 2018 - 24%
July 2021 - 22%
September 2021 - 23%
December 2021 - 28%

PT has consistently always led those polls since 1999. The only thing it means is that the left is tied to PT, while the right is more fluid. Which we already got to see with all the PSDB presidential vote draining in 2018 and their voters flocking to Bolsonaro.

I don’t know why the right hates PT so much when they’re the biggest thing stopping a leftist movement to gain traction lol. The left would never go crazy and “adventurous” when it’s so tied to PT. Meanwhile normal right-wing voters showed they can vote for crazy evil barbecue uncle.

[Niemeyerite]

I got the chance to meet Lula (and Janja, Mercadante, etc) last month during his trip around Europe. I'm just so excited about 2022 and I'll do everything possible to help him win the Presidency! Lula Já!

[CumbrianLefty]

The right hate the PT primarily because it stops them being in power more.

Not much more to it than that I think.

[crals]

Many right-wing voters here in Portugal hate PS more than the far-left parties as well. It's mainly due to PS's history of corruption and bad management, I suppose it might be the same case in Brazil with PT.

[Red Velvet]

The right hate the PT primarily because it stops them being in power more.

Not much more to it than that I think.

Yeah, but that’s more their fault for being disorganized and anti-partisan/anti-politics? PSDB was big center-right party and led country in the 90s with satisfactory results and yet they were easily dumped and some people who used to vote for them now act like they were centrists or leftists just because they don’t behave in a crazy way like evil barbecue uncle lmao

There was way more right-wing stuff being passed in the 90s structurally than in Bolsonaro’s government, who’s mostly all far-right in style and rhetoric but in practice it’s the weakest government in ages, sucking up to Centrão (aka: the corrupt establishment) on most things in order to politically survive. And centrão will still likely dump him in the 2nd semester of this year simply because it’s more politically convenient, as they aren’t loyal to any ideological matter other than their self-interests.

I guess people care way too much about “identity” than actual policies, because Bolsonaro did no major significant change, especially economically. Whoever sells the idea of a ~right-wing club~ that people can belong to (almost an attempt of mimicking the popular support PT had/has and what they represent to the left) gets so easily embraced.

I honestly don’t feel like the left in Brazil is super-competent or strong or anything, but they largely benefit from the right being a mess and having no real message to sell other than being against the left.

I don’t even feel there was an actual “conservative wave” in 2010s in the sense people started supporting these radical right-wing policies, it was more backlash and resentment against PT. Conservatism is more tied to being “anti-PT” than actually supporting conservative stuff, which is why the right cannot properly organize itself more structurally. They only win nowadays if population mood wants to punish the PT.

Which frankly, I am not a fan of. I hate that if you have any criticism of PT (and there are very valid ones in the middle of the bullsh**t ones) you’re seen as a right-winger lol. Even PSOL is having to suck up to them, it just kills any alternative of a more incisive left-wing option.

I am one who is not that much of a fan of PT being so powerful and yet I blame the right-wingers for that, for being so incompetent and desperate in their hate against PT that they ALWAYS make this party the protagonist of everything in the country. The exaggerated insurrection against them since 2018, which impeached Dilma, jailed Lula and later elected Bolsonaro is all stuff that made the party stronger in the long term after a time that some level of backlash was called for.

PT is in a weird sense, lucky to have the enemies they have. Authoritarian, dumb and who are only able to think in short-term goals.

[buritobr]

Yeah,
PT almost recovered its popularity of the time before the big protests, Lava Jato Operation and the economic downturn of 2014-2016.
The biggest change of the Brazilian politics from early 2013 to early 2022 is that former center-right voters became far-right voters.

[buritobr]

First Bolsonaro's job approval poll of 2022

PoderData, January 2nd-4th:

Good/Very good: 24%
Regular: 14%
Bad/Very bad: 57%

I don't remember any president, governor, mayor who had similar approval rate on January of the election year and was reelected in October.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, January 6th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 45%, Jair Bolsonaro 23%, Sergio Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 5%, João Doria 3%
Blank/null 8%, undecided 4%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%, blank/null 13%, undecided 3%
Lula 50%, Sergio Moro 30%, blank/null 16%, undecided 3%

[buritobr]

Following Pedro Sanchez's example, Lula considered the possibility to change the labor reform implemented by Temer's administration 2017. This reform weakened labor protection and increased the possibility of temporary employment. Unemployment is still at 13%, and it is becoming clear the growth is more important than "flexible" labor market in order to create more jobs.
Until some few days ago, Lula seemed to don't look for a left-wing economic agenda. It looked like that he was looking for the non leftist generic anti-Bolsonaro vote.
But he made a move to the left this weak.

Lula sometimes move to the left, sometimes to the center, sometimes to the left... since he is in politics, in 1978

[President Johnson]

Quaest Poll, January 6th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 45%, Jair Bolsonaro 23%, Sergio Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 5%, João Doria 3%
Blank/null 8%, undecided 4%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%, blank/null 13%, undecided 3%
Lula 50%, Sergio Moro 30%, blank/null 16%, undecided 3%

I really wonder whether the polls will change over the year when the campaign gains steam. As for now, it seems like Bolsonaro is completely DOA (for good).

[Red Velvet]

IPESPE (pro-market, ordered by XP investments) poll:

Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 24%
Moro 9%
Ciro 7%
Doria 2%
Tebet/Pacheco/Dávila, each one has 1%
Blank/Null 6%
Don’t Know 7%


Runoff scenarios (valid votes):

Lula 64% vs Bolsonaro 36%
Lula 61% vs Sérgio Moro 39%
Lula 67% vs Ciro Gomes 33%
Lula 73% vs João Doria 27%
Ciro Gomes 56% vs Bolsonaro 44%
João Doria 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%
Sérgio Moro 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%

[Red Velvet]

Following Pedro Sanchez's example, Lula considered the possibility to change the labor reform implemented by Temer's administration 2017. This reform weakened labor protection and increased the possibility of temporary employment. Unemployment is still at 13%, and it is becoming clear the growth is more important than "flexible" labor market in order to create more jobs.
Until some few days ago, Lula seemed to don't look for a left-wing economic agenda. It looked like that he was looking for the non leftist generic anti-Bolsonaro vote.
But he made a move to the left this weak.

Lula sometimes move to the left, sometimes to the center, sometimes to the left... since he is in politics, in 1978

I hope the anti-PT leftists keep trashing him as centrist neoliberal (I agree it’s kind of a reach, but there is some little truth to it as well) in order to assure he really has a more left platform lol. That’s why it’s important to have internal competition, otherwise the candidate gets lazy and assumes they have the automatic support of a sector no matter what and naturally they will try to get the support of the other side through a bunch of compromises.

I really liked Lula’s government but he and zero other politicians get me to be grateful for doing their jobs, as some PT more radical fans act like everyone should be lol.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

IPESPE (pro-market, ordered by XP investments) poll:

Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 24%
Moro 9%
Ciro 7%
Doria 2%
Tebet/Pacheco/Dávila, each one has 1%
Blank/Null 6%
Don’t Know 7%


Runoff scenarios (valid votes):

Lula 64% vs Bolsonaro 36%
Lula 61% vs Sérgio Moro 39%
Lula 67% vs Ciro Gomes 33%
Lula 73% vs João Doria 27%
Ciro Gomes 56% vs Bolsonaro 44%
João Doria 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%
Sérgio Moro 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%

Damn with results like that the Bolsonaro precincts that do exist would have to be REALLY awful.

[Red Velvet]

IPESPE (pro-market, ordered by XP investments) poll:

Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 24%
Moro 9%
Ciro 7%
Doria 2%
Tebet/Pacheco/Dávila, each one has 1%
Blank/Null 6%
Don’t Know 7%


Runoff scenarios (valid votes):

Lula 64% vs Bolsonaro 36%
Lula 61% vs Sérgio Moro 39%
Lula 67% vs Ciro Gomes 33%
Lula 73% vs João Doria 27%
Ciro Gomes 56% vs Bolsonaro 44%
João Doria 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%
Sérgio Moro 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%

Damn with results like that the Bolsonaro precincts that do exist would have to be REALLY awful.

2022 will be a landslide, Lula could maybe win almost all states like he did in 2002 (when he only lost in Alagoas to PSDB). Funny because after his election the Northeast, where Alagoas is located, became a reliable PT stronghold, with all the states from the region always voting for PT, including Alagoas.

I think the states where Bolsonaro should probably be in his strongest for 2022 are Roraima, Acre, Rondônia (all in the North region, with some of the lowest population numbers of the country meaning they don’t make much of a difference in the end result) and Santa Catarina (in the South region). And even then it’s not completely “safe” he wins in all of them at all. But assuming his campaign helps revive him to some smaller degree, which is very possible I guess, I would predict something like this atm:



And that still feels like a more optimistic scenario for Bolsonaro tbh. In a more optimistic scenario for Lula, it could easily become all red like I mentioned, mirroring 2002.

These were 2018 results for comparison btw:

[buritobr]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

[Red Velvet]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

Distrito Federal hates Bolsonaro, so them too. And I would put Goiás in the middle of the balance as well, probably being the most toss-up one alongside Mato Grosso do Sul and (lol) Paraná although I think those two could eventually go to Bolsonaro. What you say about the right having some growth in final weeks could be true (we saw Crivella lowering his defeat from 70% to something like 65% in 2020) but we also saw Dilma gaining ground in the last minute of the 2014 elections.

What happens imo is not a politicized left-right last minute vote, but the fact that people who pay less attention to politics, generally lower levels of education, make their decisions in the last minute more often. In Rio 2020 that naturally helped Crivella because of his appeal with religious groups in lower income neighborhoods of the city. In Brazil 2014 that helped Dilma because the PT naturally has more appeal with lower education groups than with PSDB.

In Brazil 2022 it’s just hard to predict who will benefit from this because you could make an argument from both Lula or Bolsonaro because of the different sides of populism. However, with the economy weak with no prospects of getting better this year, I am guessing it’s actually Lula who will benefit from this last minute bump. I am assuming Bolsonaro could regain some ground maybe with the campaign (still not quite sold, but very possible), but Lula would get most of those last minute voters and easily win with >60% in an eventual runoff (assuming it doesn’t end in 1st round).

It’s not even merit of the left or anything. People just really hate Bolsonaro now because they see him as incompetent. The ideological discussion lost way too much ground since 2018 with the average people, very few care anymore because they’re exhausted and just want to eat at this point.

Lula areas for 2022:
Northeast region
Southeast region
Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins
Rio Grande do Sul
Distrito Federal

The most toss-up like ones:
Paraná (lol, I know but goes in line with the trend)
Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás

Bolsonaro areas for 2022:
Roraima, Acre, Rondônia
Santa Catarina
Mato Grosso

In the more optimistic Bolsonaro scenario, I think he can get these I’m listing as a toss-up but I really doubt he wins any of these “Lula” states.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't really see Lula taking Paraná or Mató Grosso do Sul. And in my mind, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro are toss-ups, with SP being only slightly leaning towards Lula. I hope I'm wrong but what I see is a huge territorial polarization but Bolsonaro still retaining some of his strongholds, even in Rio.

[buritobr]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

Distrito Federal hates Bolsonaro, so them too. And I would put Goiás in the middle of the balance as well, probably being the most toss-up one alongside Mato Grosso do Sul and (lol) Paraná although I think those two could eventually go to Bolsonaro. What you say about the right having some growth in final weeks could be true (we saw Crivella lowering his defeat from 70% to something like 65% in 2020) but we also saw Dilma gaining ground in the last minute of the 2014 elections.

What happens imo is not a politicized left-right last minute vote, but the fact that people who pay less attention to politics, generally lower levels of education, make their decisions in the last minute more often. In Rio 2020 that naturally helped Crivella because of his appeal with religious groups in lower income neighborhoods of the city. In Brazil 2014 that helped Dilma because the PT naturally has more appeal with lower education groups than with PSDB.

In Brazil 2022 it’s just hard to predict who will benefit from this because you could make an argument from both Lula or Bolsonaro because of the different sides of populism. However, with the economy weak with no prospects of getting better this year, I am guessing it’s actually Lula who will benefit from this last minute bump. I am assuming Bolsonaro could regain some ground maybe with the campaign (still not quite sold, but very possible), but Lula would get most of those last minute voters and easily win with >60% in an eventual runoff (assuming it doesn’t end in 1st round).

It’s not even merit of the left or anything. People just really hate Bolsonaro now because they see him as incompetent. The ideological discussion lost way too much ground since 2018 with the average people, very few care anymore because they’re exhausted and just want to eat at this point.

Lula areas for 2022:
Northeast region
Southeast region
Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins
Rio Grande do Sul
Distrito Federal

The most toss-up like ones:
Paraná (lol, I know but goes in line with the trend)
Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás

Bolsonaro areas for 2022:
Roraima, Acre, Rondônia
Santa Catarina
Mato Grosso

In the more optimistic Bolsonaro scenario, I think he can get these I’m listing as a toss-up but I really doubt he wins any of these “Lula” states.

Polls of early 2014 were showing the possibility of Dilma Rousseff winning in the first round
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_de_opini%C3%A3o_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2014
More recent elections: in mid 2020, polls were showing Manuela d'Ávila leading in Porto Alegre, Coser leading in Vitória, and Edmílson holding a much higher margin in Belém than he really had. The exception was Guilherme Boulos in São Paulo, who was not polling well. But he wasn't a very well known candidate.

[buritobr]

I don't really see Lula taking Paraná or Mató Grosso do Sul. And in my mind, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro are toss-ups, with SP being only slightly leaning towards Lula. I hope I'm wrong but what I see is a huge territorial polarization but Bolsonaro still retaining some of his strongholds, even in Rio.

Polls conducted in 2021 showed Lula leading in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul. In Distrito Federal, Bolsonaro had a small lead, but he and Lula had a tie considering the margin of error.

[buritobr]

Real Time Big Data Poll January 17th

State of Rio Grande do Sul

Governor scenario 1

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 25%
Ivo Sartori (MDB) 16%
Onyx Lorenzoni (UB) 13%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL) 4%
Edegar Pretto (PT) 4%

Governor scenario 6, no Leite no Sartori (the one which has the biggest probability)

Onyx Lorenzoni (UB) 20%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL) 6%
Beto Albuquerque (PSB) 5%
Edegar Pretto (PT) 4%
Heinze (PP) 4%

Senator

Manuela d'Ávila 17%
Hamilton Mourão 14%
Ana Amélia Lemos 13%
Ivo Sartori 11%
Lasier Martins 10%
Paulo Pimenta 4%

https://www.correiodopovo.com.br/not%C3%ADcias/pol%C3%ADtica/leite-e-sartori-lideram-inten%C3%A7%C3%B5es-de-voto-no-rs-aponta-pesquisa-1.756744
https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1483193677623222275

It's an worrying issue that in Rio Grande do Sul, the most progressive state of the South Region, the sum of far right candidates Onyx Lorenzoni and Heinze is 24%

However, we have to observe that the client of Real Time Big Data is the pro Bolsonaro TV Record. In this poll, the interviewed people were not informed about the parties of the candidates. In Atlas poll, in which the parties of the candidates were informed, PT candidate Pretto had 20%.