Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

Distrito Federal hates Bolsonaro, so them too. And I would put Goiás in the middle of the balance as well, probably being the most toss-up one alongside Mato Grosso do Sul and (lol) Paraná although I think those two could eventually go to Bolsonaro. What you say about the right having some growth in final weeks could be true (we saw Crivella lowering his defeat from 70% to something like 65% in 2020) but we also saw Dilma gaining ground in the last minute of the 2014 elections.

What happens imo is not a politicized left-right last minute vote, but the fact that people who pay less attention to politics, generally lower levels of education, make their decisions in the last minute more often. In Rio 2020 that naturally helped Crivella because of his appeal with religious groups in lower income neighborhoods of the city. In Brazil 2014 that helped Dilma because the PT naturally has more appeal with lower education groups than with PSDB.

In Brazil 2022 it’s just hard to predict who will benefit from this because you could make an argument from both Lula or Bolsonaro because of the different sides of populism. However, with the economy weak with no prospects of getting better this year, I am guessing it’s actually Lula who will benefit from this last minute bump. I am assuming Bolsonaro could regain some ground maybe with the campaign (still not quite sold, but very possible), but Lula would get most of those last minute voters and easily win with >60% in an eventual runoff (assuming it doesn’t end in 1st round).

It’s not even merit of the left or anything. People just really hate Bolsonaro now because they see him as incompetent. The ideological discussion lost way too much ground since 2018 with the average people, very few care anymore because they’re exhausted and just want to eat at this point.

Lula areas for 2022:
Northeast region
Southeast region
Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins
Rio Grande do Sul
Distrito Federal

The most toss-up like ones:
Paraná (lol, I know but goes in line with the trend)
Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás

Bolsonaro areas for 2022:
Roraima, Acre, Rondônia
Santa Catarina
Mato Grosso

In the more optimistic Bolsonaro scenario, I think he can get these I’m listing as a toss-up but I really doubt he wins any of these “Lula” states.

Polls of early 2014 were showing the possibility of Dilma Rousseff winning in the first round
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_de_opini%C3%A3o_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2014
More recent elections: in mid 2020, polls were showing Manuela d'Ávila leading in Porto Alegre, Coser leading in Vitória, and Edmílson holding a much higher margin in Belém than he really had. The exception was Guilherme Boulos in São Paulo, who was not polling well. But he wasn't a very well known candidate.

I don’t think this is a right-left thing though, more a name recognition thing where candidates more known tend to have an advantage before the campaign properly begins.

In 2014 for example, you see that Dilma only wins in 1st round so easily not because she has big vote intention or anything, but because her opponents have much lower vote than what they ended up getting after the campaign.

Dilma had big name recognition as the president, Marina had lesser but some as a past candidate while people didn’t know who Aécio was on the national level although he benefited from being PSDB candidate (in the last year that was relevant lol). That’s what these polls reflect.

Early polls / 1st round result comparison

Dilma: ~35% - 40% / 37,6%
Marina: ~25% - 30% / 19,3%
Aécio: ~15% - 20% / 30,3%

So Dilma actually did about what was expected from her. What happened more during the campaign was that Aécio gained on name recognition while also absorbing some of the Marina vote. But that should’ve been expected considering he was the least known candidate of the three while still having a big machine like the one from PSDB that allowed him to get big exposure when the campaign actually started.

2018 is very different because both Bolsonaro and Lula are candidates with extremely high name recognition, so I don’t think either can get much benefit from campaign exposure as people already know who they are and are likely to have a formed opinion on them.

[Sir Mohamed]

How would Bolsonaro react to a defeat? Could we see events unfolding looking like a redux of the 2020 transition period in the US? I don't know enough to say how credible polling in Brazil is and there's still about 10 months left, but it appears Bolsonaro is pretty much done.

[Red Velvet]

How would Bolsonaro react to a defeat? Could we see events unfolding looking like a redux of the 2020 transition period in the US? I don't know enough to say how credible polling in Brazil is and there's still about 10 months left, but it appears Bolsonaro is pretty much done.

Pretty credible from IPEC and Datafolha, more than most US polling imo. Other institutes are mostly good too even with some small level of bias.

He’s not done because campaign doesn’t start until the second semester of the year and who knows what can happen until then? Imagine if the economy miraculously gained a boost and people started feeling the effects for example. I agree it’s highly unlikely Bolsonaro wins anything but zero elections are over 9 months before they happen.

His reaction to a loss would be leaving the country, if I had to guess? Good riddance, although it sounds too good to be true.


https://www.twitter.com/UrbanNathalia/status/1481599555108065289

[Red Velvet]

It’s also good not to dismiss the Bolsonaro hidden machine of fake news, which will only kick out during campaign. News from this week said his son Carlos wanted to buy a spy softaware used by dictatorships, in order to help in these elections.

[adma]

His reaction to a loss would be leaving the country, if I had to guess? Good riddance, although it sounds too good to be true.


https://www.twitter.com/UrbanNathalia/status/1481599555108065289

I guess like Ronnie Biggs moving to Brazil, only in reverse.

[buritobr]

How would Bolsonaro react to a defeat? Could we see events unfolding looking like a redux of the 2020 transition period in the US? I don't know enough to say how credible polling in Brazil is and there's still about 10 months left, but it appears Bolsonaro is pretty much done.

I don't think anything serious will happen. Maybe, Jair Bolsonaro and his kids would writte claims about "voter fraud" in the Twitter. Some retired generals could do it too. Maybe, some dozens of demonstrators wearing yellow shirts and waving the imperial flag could do some street protests.
And if Lula wins, probably Bolsonaro will not participate in the cerimony of the transfer of the presidential sash on the presidential innauguration on January 1st 2023. Usually the leaving president transfers the sash to the elected president in the inauguration. But I think Lula will receive the sash from the cerimony staff, like reelected presidents (who don't have a leaving president to transfer).

[CumbrianLefty]

Let's not forget that the last POTUS election was close - would even Trump have contested his defeat if he had been stomped in the same fashion that the polls currently indicate for Bolsonaro?

[Niemeyerite]

Let's not forget that the last POTUS election was close - would even Trump have contested his defeat if he had been stomped in the same fashion that the polls currently indicate for Bolsonaro?

Yes, I think Trump would have claimed fraud no matter what. But Trump will be recalled as "gracious" in defeat when we see Bolsonaro after losing in October. He and his troop of loonies will be so mad. I can't wait to start enjoying the despair of the family of milicianos and their cult followers!

[buritobr]

When, the biggest enemy of Bolsonaro, Trump and their followers is not the left, the communism, the cultural marxism, the progressive movements, ... their biggest enemy is the reality. They hate the reality and always try to eliminate it. If they contest a election in which the margin was not narrow, I would not see it as a surprise.

[buritobr]

David Miranda, who is Glenn Greenwald's husband, left PSOL and joined PDT.
He was becoming less important in PSOL and probably he wouldn't be elected federal representative in PSOL. Other PSOL candidates in Rio de Janeiro would have more votes in order to fill the seats.
Besides, very left-wing voters became less willing to vote for him, considering new Greenwald's views.

[Red Velvet]

“Very left wing voters” = very online social progressives way too obsessed with woke signaling, I’m guessing? I really doubt anyone else cares about US politics or Glenn Greenwald positions, things that aren’t really relevant to Brazil at all.

If anything, the real criticism I saw about David was his lower profile on the chamber, as if he was only a pretty face who lacked energy. Voted for David in 2018 when he was in PSOL and could maybe do it again in PDT (haven’t decided yet) since everyone is leaving PSOL to go to PT/PSB/PDT/etc.

Always voted for PSOL in legislative but it really looks the party could be disappearing due to multiple effects (internal divisions about being pro-Lula or not, rise of the % voting new requirement, members dissatisfied with lack of pragmatism, etc). Marcelo Freixo left, Jean Wylys left, David Miranda left and I think others could too.

IMO, the thing with PSOL is that it always positioned itself as the opposition to Lula/PT “from the left” and they’ve been going through an identity crisis since Bolsonaro on whether to be pro-Lula for the “better good” or maintain the old spirit from their foundation, when Heloísa Helena always brought very strong anti-PT rhetoric. And it really is looking like the pro-Lula faction is bigger, with the anti-PT ones being concentrated on the MES internal ideological line from PSOL.

Shifting to be a pro-PT party brings a question mark about PSOL future that we don’t really know what could lead to in the future, because we won’t have a strong left-wing party contesting PT, which could possibly leave PT without having to worry about competition from the left, making them unchecked. We would lose that counterbalance.

I see some of those anti-PT leftist voters like David going to PDT because of Ciro Gomes and his proposals, but the party is way too heterogenous to work as a real left-wing counterbalance. It’s not a party where I feel the confidence voting for in the legislative without having to worry about my vote helping push more “suspicious” elements. I didn’t even vote for PT because of that and PDT has way more of these people. PSOL was the only party where I could feel some level of confidence on that regard, even if they aren’t infallible either.

So let’s wait and see. I will wait for the campaign to start to see the names running from PSOL in Rio to see if there’s someone I really like but I’m not really excited to vote for the party anymore with all the internal confusion and divide, since Freixo left. I could see myself maybe voting for PDT with David inside because before it’s not like they previously had any big name to rally behind. Like most Ciro voters, I think the sympathy for PDT comes more because of Ciro himself being the current face of the party than anything to do with the members of the party, which is why it’s cool to have some new fresh names to consider now joining it.

I’m already trying to come up with a voting strategy here in Rio…

President: Ciro Gomes (PDT) if Lula is <45% in the final polling; Lula (PT) if he is >45% in the final polling

Governor: Marcelo Freixo (PSB), the easiest one to have no doubts about

Senate: Whoever from PDT/PSB/PT/PSOL/REDE that has better numbers in the polls. I hope one of these parties puts a high profile figure who has competitive chances. Senate is the election which envolves the most pragmatism because a divide is extremely prejudicial as there isn’t a runoff, so I will likely go with the flow.

Federal Congress: Someone from PDT or PSOL

State Congress: Someone from PSOL or PT. Maybe REDE too, if there’s a cool option.

[Red Velvet]

Election Calendar (Debates + Election Days)

Band debate: August 4th
CNN debate: August 6th
Jovem Pan debate: August 9th
RedeTV debate: September 2nd
SBT debate: To be scheduled, usually just before or after RedeTV one
Record debate: To be scheduled, usually after SBT or RedeTV one
Rede Globo debate: To be scheduled, usually after Record one

Election Day: October 2nd

CNN debate: October 3rd
Runoff debates from other networks: To be scheduled

Runoff Election Day (if there is one): October 30th

[DanPrazeres]

David will have a very tough election in PDT/RJ. It is one of the only States that the party has a real tradition. But undoubtably his chances are higher than in PSOL/RJ (that I believe will have to rebuild itself or will implode and lose importance in relation to other PSOL in other states).

[Red Velvet]

David will have a very tough election in PDT/RJ. It is one of the only States that the party has a real tradition. But undoubtably his chances are higher than in PSOL/RJ (that I believe will have to rebuild itself or will implode and lose importance in relation to other PSOL in other states).

Not sure. On one hand, PSOL in Rio is actually best party for someone in the left to get elected but they lost Freixo and it’s not like I expect their number of seats to rise up. In Rio, PDT is the second best electoral option although with Lula in 2022 I expect them to get a bump not only in Rio but the whole country. In 2018 we elected in Rio for Federal congress:

- 4 from PSOL (#4 got 24k votes)
- 2 from PDT (#2 got 25k votes)
- 1 from PSB (#1 got 227k votes)
- 1 from PT (#1 got 44k votes)
- 1 from PCdoB (#1 got 71k votes)

David was #5 from PSOL (getting 17k votes), replacing PSOL’s #4 after he left the country due to intimidations from Bolsonaro supporters. That was a strong election for PSOL, getting record number of seats in Rio because of Freixo huge amount of votes helping push more people. I expect PSOL to decrease in seats as PT and PDT steal the “polarization in the left” and PSOL loses key figures to other parties.

Meanwhile, PSB, PT and PCdoB elected only 1 person with had huge amount of votes (Molon, Benedita and Jandira). This shows these people concentrate the votes in their parties, showing that it’s the candidate that is strong in Rio, not the party. PSB and PCdoB are especially weak for not pushing anyone else with those huge amount of votes for their top candidates. PT too but to a lesser degree, clearly not as bad as the other two.

While PDT elected 2 people with low amount of votes (#1 had 26k and #2 had 25k). This shows that the non-elected PDT candidates had a decent showing which elevated the party number of votes, assuring them to get more seats. Unlike the others, the party is stronger than the individual candidates in Rio particularly.

So considering PSOL melting (although it will still probably elect more people, internal competition in PSOL is also bigger) and the fact PDT is a strong option where you can get elected with lesser votes because of the party strength, I don’t think it’s impossible at all.

It will be hard though. I think some people who voted for him in 2018 won’t now because he’s out of PSOL and the Rio average type of PSOL voter likes to vote for PSOL. On the other hand, David is definitely way more known today than he was in 2018 (before Vaza-Jato and before having a national profile), which tends to propel you. He’s kinda perfect default option for that Rio type of Ciro left-wing supporter who votes for PSOL and doesn’t like the legislative options on PDT.

The risk is that he ties himself way too much to Ciro. If Ciro has weak showing (like single digits) in the presidential election, I would say David doesn’t get elected but if Ciro at least repeats 2018 then David has pretty good chances as the main candidate with “leftist” credentials inside PDT-Rio. Same way Duda Salabert performed uncommonly huge in Minas in PDT as an ex-PSOL member. And David doesn’t need to gain that much by staying in PDT considering they elected people with only 25k votes in 2018.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Who would Gisele Bunchden, Pele, and Neymar endorse in the 2022 Brazilian election?

[DanPrazeres]

Who would Gisele Bunchden, Pele, and Neymar endorse in the 2022 Brazilian election?

Look, Pelé is a entity above all (but don't expect politically too much from him), but he is very sick, if he stays alive it will be a blessing.

Gisele and Neymar (and every other athlete or artist with fiscal domicile abroad) probably will vote in the ones who their account manager says to.

She is not so influent nowadays (we in fact in the last years only talk about her in the time we try to explain who Tom Brady is), so I believe that she will say something about saving Amazonia and maybe support Lula because that is what is expected an important woman in Brazil do (considering that is against Bolsonaro and his misogyny).

Neymar is a little more complicated because of his actual lack of charisma, that probably only will be reverted if he wins World Cup (that will be after the election). So I think it is not impossible he supports Lula, Bolsonaro, Ciro, Moro, Dória, or anyone, or even don't say anything. But considering his and his father problems with taxes, I believe that he will say nothing.

[buritobr]

Pelé has cancer in the liver, in the intestine and in the lunger. Probably he will not survive until October. Very sad. He usually doesnt't speak about politics very often, but when he is asked, he shows he is more to the right than to the left. He was the Minister of Sports of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-1998), the centrist president who was endorsed by the right. Even being a black superstar in a country in which the racial inequality is very high, he was never a strong activist in the black movement (and it is not his obligation, he does what he wants). No matter Pelé's political views, he is a legend.

Gisele Bundchen has already endorsed Marina Silva because, as it was mentioned, she cares about the environment. But Marina Silva will not run in 2022, and the model didn't speak yet which candidate she is endorsing.

Neymar made a public endorsement for Aécio Neves in 2014, his father openly supports Bolsonaro, but Neymar didn't make public endorsement in 2018. He plays in Europe and maybe the Europeans would not have a positive view if the player made a public endorsement for Bolsonaro.

Most of the Brazilian soccer is right-wing. Rivaldo and Ronaldinho Gaúcho are open Bolsonaro supporters. Ronaldo (Fenomeno) didn't make a public endorsement for Bolsonaro but he has already endorsed other right-wing candidates. Romário is a senator of the state of Rio de Janeiro, he has already supported leftists in the past, but he considers himself a Bolsonaro's ally.

One of the few exceptions is Sócrates, player of the national team of 1982 and 1986, and famous for his left-wing activism. Some team mates of him in Corinthians in the early 1980s were also left-wing.

[Red Velvet]

I doubt any of these cares much about politics, for them it makes no difference lol

But generally, football people are generally more right-wing (in Brazil that doesn’t necessarily mean they wouldn’t vote for someone in the left though). Pelé and Neymar included. But I doubt they’re very ideological or anything. Neymar for example gives me vibes he would support anyone who wins or is more popular at the moment because the important it’s being friendly to whoever is in power.

Meanwhile Gisele Bundchen gives me anti-Bolsonaro centrist vibes, maybe leaning a bit to the left these days because of how awful Bolsonaro is.

I guess the stereotype is:

Athletes from Football and to a lesser extent Volley, especially if they’re men —> Right

Artists from TV, theater or involved on other cultural sector, especially if they’re women —> Left

All with exceptions of course.

[DanPrazeres]

Today I was thinking that with Olavo's death, the possibility of another far right wing movement breaks from Bolsonaro (as Weintreub, if not in jail) got lower, at least in the moment. In States, it can make difference.

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll second half January 2022

First round
Lula 44%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 2%, others 3%
None 8%, undecided 4%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%
Lula 50%, Sergio Moro 31%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 23%
Regular: 21%
Bad/very bad: 55%

[buritobr]

Today I was thinking that with Olavo's death, the possibility of another far right wing movement breaks from Bolsonaro (as Weintreub, if not in jail) got lower, at least in the moment. In States, it can make difference.

Olavo de Carvalho has already created his cattle. His dead now won't make difference. His followers will keep his "work".

[buritobr]

Some state level polls

Bahia, January 19-22nd, Opnus
President: Lula 59%, Bolsonaro 21%, Moro 5%, Ciro 4%
Governor: ACM Neto 52%, Jaques Wagner 29%

Goiás, January 21-24th, Serpes/Acieg
President: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 27,8%, Moro 8,1%, Ciro 2,5%
Governor: Caiado 37,1%, Perillo 14,1%, Medanha 13%

In Bahia, the poll showed a result similar to 2018. Maybe, in the Northeast, PT has already achieved its peak in 2006/2010/2014/2018. Maybe, there is no room to swing even more to the left.
In Goiás, the polls is showing a big swing. Goiás is a very conservative state and Bolsonaro won a landslide there in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

Some state level polls

Bahia, January 19-22nd, Opnus
President: Lula 59%, Bolsonaro 21%, Moro 5%, Ciro 4%
Governor: ACM Neto 52%, Jaques Wagner 29%

Goiás, January 21-24th, Serpes/Acieg
President: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 27,8%, Moro 8,1%, Ciro 2,5%
Governor: Caiado 37,1%, Perillo 14,1%, Medanha 13%

In Bahia, the poll showed a result similar to 2018. Maybe, in the Northeast, PT has already achieved its peak in 2006/2010/2014/2018. Maybe, there is no room to swing even more to the left.
In Goiás, the polls is showing a big swing. Goiás is a very conservative state and Bolsonaro won a landslide there in 2018.

From the Center-West it’s the one I expected to go for Lula first, so I wouldn’t say it’s that conservative. This idea probably comes from their stereotype of “country” people who aren’t educated on social issues/ Sertanejo culture. Goiás (GO) is the most likely to go for Lula, then MS and then MT. The only thing in the Center-West/Goiás that may push it to Bolsonaro is the Agro influence but even that is more limited than say, in Rondônia and Mato Grosso

The ones I think are really conservative nowadays are Rondônia, Acre and Roraima, on the North tbh. Alongside with maybe Santa Catarina in the South. These are the ones in which Bolsonaro had >70% in 2018 and theoretically should be the favorite, although for different reasons.

Roraima is the lowest populated state in the country, with very few people living there while also the one state which borders Venezuela, basically making it be the only place in the country where people feel the effects of immigration since the majority of immigrants stay there near their country.

Rondônia stereotype is basically logging and forest fires at this point and a lot of that has to do with a true strong Agro influence in that state. Even if all the country shifts to vote for Lula, I bet Rondônia would be the last to shift although it would be a close competition with Roraima.

PT has had successes in Acre before but they appear to have shifted to be very anti-PT after internal issues in the state after PT governing the state it seems? Not sure exactly but it looks like it will take some time before PT gains trust there, although Lula is a completely different thing so you never know. The advance of evangelical religion could maybe have an influence too.

And Santa Catarina is basically white people who are economically right-wing. But considering those hate incompetence, it’s easier to see them maybe shifting before the other three. That said, they definetely would be the last in the South/Southeast regions, PT would shift in car-wash heaven that was Paraná before they would in Santa Catarina.

Paraná in some ways gives me São Paulo interior vibes, so if São Paulo gets a significant PT victory (instead of a narrow PT victory), I could see them shift though.

[buritobr]

Except Distrito Federal, which used to vote on the left of the country until 2002, the other 3 states in the Center-West voted on the right of the country in every presidential election since 1989.
But you are correct: usually they don't vote too much on the right, like Acre, Roraima, Rondônia and Santa Catarina. Since 2002, São Paulo votes on the right of the Center-West.

[Red Velvet]

Except Distrito Federal, which used to vote on the left of the country until 2002, the other 3 states in the Center-West voted on the right of the country in every presidential election since 1989.
But you are correct: usually they don't vote too much on the right, like Acre, Roraima, Rondônia and Santa Catarina. Since 2002, São Paulo votes on the right of the Center-West.

Goiás is way more urbanized than Mato Grosso and Rondônia, two states that have parts of the Amazon inside then and where there’s more pressure to expand agricultural areas. And Mato Grosso do Sul has some similarities with the interior of São Paulo/Paraná in terms of sharing developed areas, besides the regular “countryside and rural” idea we tend to have of the center-west as a whole.

Goiás is the easiest one in center-west to go for Lula and there are polls per region pointing that the center-west is already mostly for Lula… That’s why I predicted Goiás (most populated one in the region) to go for Lula, when it’s harder for me to see that coming from MS and especially MT.

Center-West is the lowest populated region in the country (although the North is the least densely populated), with only 16,7 M people. But most of these people are in Goiás. So the center-west going for PT in the polls was always an indication coming from Goiás. It wouldn’t be from Mato Grosso.

Center-West region:
43,1% live in Goiás
21,4% live in Mato Grosso
18,5% live in Distrito Federal (Federal District)
17,0% live in Mato Grosso do Sul

Which means GO + DF is what decides what goes on there, as they have over 60% of the vote.