Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

There are 12 months to the election, so, I created the thread, according to the rules of this Forum.

On October 2nd 2022, there will be election in Brazil for:

President
The president and the vice president are elected in the same ticket through national popular direct vote. If no candidate reaches >50% of the valid vote in the first round, there is a runoff on October 30th, in which the 2 candidates who had the biggest number of votes in the 1st round participate. Since Jair Bolsonaro is in his first term, he can run for reelection.

House
513 representatives are elected through an open list proportional representation system. The seats are allocated to the parties according to the proportion of votes the sum of their candidates receive. Each state has a number of seats according to its population, but there is a ceiling of 70 seats and a floor of 8 seats. If there was no celiing, São Paulo, the largest populated state would have 110 seats, and Roraima, Rondônia, Amapá and Acre would have fewer than 8 seats.

Senate
Each of 26 states and the Federal District has 3 senators. The senators, unlike other offices, have an 8 year term. But there are elections for the senate in every 4 years. So, in one election 2 senators from each state are elected, in the following one 1 senator is elected, in the following 2, in the following 1 and so on. In 2018, 2 senators from each state were elected. In 2022, 1 senator from each state will be elected. The senators are elected through a simple plurality vote. There is no runoff.

State governors
The 26 states and the Federal District elect there governors. The rules are the same of the election for president: a ticket including the governor and the vice governor is elected through direct popular vote. If no candidate reaches >50% in the 1st round, there is a runoff on October 30th.

State assemblies
The state representatives are elected through the same open list proportional representation system that exists at the federal level for the House.

[buritobr]

When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?

The campaign has a 45 day duration. So, the deadline for the subscription of candidates is ~August 15th.

[buritobr]

Like any other party, when it is too early, probably União Brasil would say that they want an own candidate, in order to increase their bargaining power. But when the election gets closer, probably they will support Eduardo Leite and choose his running mate.
Eduardo Leite has now bigger support of the PSDB than João Dória.

[buritobr]

According to Brazilian law, it is mandatory to be a member of a political party in order to run for an elected office at least 6 months before the election.

Bolsonaro has no party because he is not a member of PSL anymore. Since the presidential election will take place on October 2nd, he has deadline until April 2nd in order to join a political party. Probably he will go back to Partido Progressista. Most of the time he was a representative, he was a member of this party. He had talks with leaders of Progressista.

[buritobr]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

Way too early to tell, as there’s a whole year before the election, but it’s currently looking like that yeah.

I wouldn’t underestimate his chances that much though. Presidents always get blamed for everything bad that happens but they also get praised for every minimal good thing that happens.

If the situation miraculously gets better during 2022, I could see him with some chances. If not, he’s definitely losing though.

I think so too.

It is too early and all these 4 possibilies can happen. None can be eliminated 12 months before
1) Lula win
2) Bolsonaro reelected
3) Non-Bolsonaro right (or "third way") win
4) Lula doesn't run and other leftist win

[buritobr]

Sergio Moro will join Podemos, which unlike the spanish one, is a small right-wing party in Brazil. The media told today that he will probably run for president.
The split of the non-Bolsonaro right-wing vote is good for Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll Rio de Janeiro for 2022, October 22th-26th 2021

Rio de Janeiro is Bolsonaro's home state. The left usually wins presidential elections in Rio de Janeiro, but Jair Bolsonaro won a landslide there in 2018.

President

Scenario 1
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 29%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 4%
Scenario 2
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Eduardo Leite 3%

Governor

Scenario 1
Marcelo Freixo (PSB, center-left): 25%
Claudio Castro (PL, incumbent governor, far-right, Bolsonaro's ally): 16%
Rodrigo Neves (PDT, center-left): 7%
Santa Cruz (center): 3%

Scenario 2
Marcelo Freixo (PSB, center-left): 23%
Mourão (PRTB, vice president, far-right): 17%
Claudio Castro (PL, incumbent governor, far-right, Bolsonaro's ally): 12%
Rodrigo Neves (PDT, center-left): 6%
Santa Cruz (center): 3%

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll November 2021

Scenario 1
Lula 42%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 11%, Doria 4%, Mandetta 3%, Rodrigo Pacheco 2%

Scenario 2
Lula 41%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Sergio Moro 8%, Mandetta 3%, Datena 3%, Eduardo Leite 3%, Rodrigo Pacheco 2%, Simone Tebet 1%

Runoff
Lula 50%, Jair Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 52%, Sergio Moro 34%
Lula 49%, Ciro Gomes 29%
Lula 51%, Doria 23%
Lula 50%, Leite 22%
Ciro Gomes 44%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Doria 40%, Jair Bolsonaro 35%
Leite 37%, Jair Bolsonaro 34%

[buritobr]

After majority of PDT in congress voted for the PEC of Precatórios (basically takes away Teachers money in order to finance Bolsonaro re-election dreams with a new social program), Ciro Gomes has put his presidential pre-candidature in suspension.

Good to add pressure on the party to change their position on the second round of the vote, I guess. Obviously this is also to distance himself from the party decision and not de-energize his base, which at this point is more in the party just because of Ciro.

I wonder what would happen if Ciro stayed on PSB some few years ago… Would PDT be what PSB is now (this neutral party where some big names are going to by default), or the same thing?

Ciro Gomes changed his party many times because he always wanted to be in a party which is PT's ally, but it is not the PT. He ran for president in 1998 and 2002 as a PPS candidate. He left PPS because its leader Roberto Freire became a strong enemy of the PT. He joined PSB, but he left PSB after its leader Eduardo Campos decided to oppose to Dilma Rousseff's administration. Than Ciro Gomes moved to PROS, and finnaly he moved to PDT. Now, Ciro Gomes doesn't want a PT's ally anymore.
I think Ciro Gomes didn't take inteligent decisions. The probability of being elected is bigger in a major party. 1989 and 2018 were exceptions. Ciro Gomes should have stayed in the PSDB or he should have moved to the PT and tried to find an important place in one of these parties.

[buritobr]

Since Bolsonaro left his former party PSL in 2019, he isn't member of any party now. But it is necessary to be a member of a party in order to run for the reelection.
Today, the media showed that Jair Bolsonaro will become a member of the Partido Liberal (PL).

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll November 2021
Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 21%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, João Doria 2%, Rodrigo Pacheco 1%
Runoff: Lula 57%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%

[buritobr]

Poll O Tempo November 3rd

Minas Gerais

Governor
Zema (Novo, incumbent governor) 45.1%, Khalil (PSD) 22.5%

President
Lula 39.7%, Bolsonaro 22.0%, Sergio Moro 5.1%, Ciro Gomes 3.6%

In Minas Gerais, the results are always close to the national results

[buritobr]

Exame Idea Poll November 11, 2021
Lula 35%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 7%, Sergio Moro 5%
Runoff: Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%

All the polls show similar results.
The polls related to Bolsonaro's job approval are similar too.
Nowadays, they usually show Good/Very Good~25%, Regular~20%, Bad/Very Bad ~55%

There are some differences in the polls related to subgroups: region, age, instruction, income

[buritobr]

We saw in the media this week that Geraldo Alckmin can be Lula's running mate in 2022. The goal of this ticket would be showing that Lula is not the candidate of the left but the candidate of a broad anti-Bolsonaro front.
Geraldo Alckmin was the opponent of Lula in the runoff in 2006.

It would be as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate against Trump in 2020.

[buritobr]

First poll after Sergio Moro became a member of the party Podemos and the media spent hours talking about him
PonteioPolítica November 16-18

Scenario 1: Lula 37%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 11%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Joao Doria 3%, others 3%, blank/nulified 10%, didn't answer 5%

Scenario 2: Lula 35%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Sergio Moro 12%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Eduardo Leite 2%, others 4%, blank/nulified 8%, didn't answer 5%

Runoff
Lula 50%, Jair Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 45%, Sergio Moro 31%

[buritobr]

Curious to see what will be the outcome of the PSDB primaries on Sunday. Earlier, Leite seemed to be closing in on Doria, but do you guys think he will make it? Or has Doria been able to stop the bleeding?

Eduardo Leite is the favorite because he has the support of almost all the PSDB leaders outside São Paulo. Even though, João Doria is endorsed by the 2 living PSDB founding fathers: Fernando Henrique Cardoso and José Serra.
Most of the PSDB prefer Eduardo Leite because João Doria criticism on Jair Bolsonaro was to harsh and the PSDB will look for right-wing voters, the voters who could choose Bolsonaro. João Doria is punished for being correct. João Doria used to be hated by the left until 2019. Now, he is more respected by the left than Eduardo Leite. But since the left won't vote for neither Doria nor Leite, most of the PSDB will probably choose the leader who is a best fit for the right.
But if Sergio Moro runs for president, probably any PSDB candidate won't go to the runoff. Probably, PSDB will try to convince Sergio Moro to run for the Senate.

[buritobr]

The PSDB primaries failed, due to problems in the app which was used to vote.

The PSDB primaries will take place next Sunday or in 2022.

[buritobr]

The PSDB primaries failed, due to problems in the app which was used to vote.

The PSDB primaries will take place next Sunday or in 2022.

Hahahaha. Like Red Velvet said, what a joke of a party. But seriously, PSDB should just merge with DEM or something. If they cannot even manage a simple primary, then I don't what can they manage.

PSDB was one of the 2 major parties between 1994 and 2014. Now, its relevance is declining because there are other forces in the right-wing of the political spectrum: Podemos, União Brasil, Partido Liberal, Progressistas. Even if Bolsonaro doesn't run, Sergio Moro, in the Podemos, can be the major candidate of the right, instead of the PSDB.
However, the failure of the app in the primary is not an important issue. Nobody will remember this event in October 2022. In February 2020, the democratic primary in Iowa was a mess. We discussed in this Forum if Trump would be benefited. In October 2020, I posted in this Forum a question about if anyone remebered Iowa.
The PSDB primary for the mayor of São Paulo in 2016 was a mess. Even though, João Doria was elected in the first round.

[buritobr]

It looks like that Sergio Moro is more willing to receive the support of the $ and the corporate media than the PSDB candidate

[buritobr]

Considering that Lula has a safe place in the runoff and Bolsonaro doesn't, the "neither Lula nor Bolsonaro" candidate needs to have votes from the right in order to go to the runoff. Sergio Moro is at a good position.
For João Doria to go to the runoff, he would need to convince Sergio Moro to run for the senate and not for president.

[buritobr]

Details of the Atlas Poll, November 23-26th 2021, about Bolsonaro's administration

Group: approve, disapprove

Gender
Male: 38, 57
Female: 21, 73

Education
Elementary: 38, 56
High School: 27, 68
College: 23, 72

Region
Center-West: 38, 59
Northeast: 21, 75
North: 31, 66
Southeast (excluding São Paulo): 33, 63
South: 31, 61
São Paulo: 31, 63

Age
16-24: 16, 77
25-34: 27, 67
35-44: 37, 58
45-59: 34, 61
60-100: 31, 65

Monthly Income (US$1=R$5.50)
<R$2000: 24, 71
R$2000-R$3000: 35, 60
R$3000-R$5000: 34, 60
R$5000-R$10000: 33, 64
>R$10000: 25, 68

Religion
Catholic: 27, 68
Evangelic: 43, 51
Other: 22, 72
Atheist, Agnostic: 12, 85

Vote 2018
Bolsonaro: 61, 31
Haddad: 1, 98
Blank or nulified: 5, 90
Didn't vote: 13, 78

https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1465298637953675268

[buritobr]

Atlas Poll, November 27-29th 2021

1st round
Lula 42.8%, Jair Bolsonaro 31.5%, Sergio Moro 13.7%, Ciro Gomes 6.1%, João Doria 1.7%

Runoff
Lula 50.5%, Jair Bolsonaro 36%
Lula 46.4%, Sergio Moro 29.2%

You can find the full results, according to gender, age, region, education, income, religion, vote 2018, here. I think even those who don't speak Portuguese could understand the tables and the charts https://atlasintel.org/poll/brazil-national-2021-11-30

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll in state of São Paulo
December 2021

1st round
Lula 35%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 12%, Ciro Gomes 5%, João Dória 5%
Runoff
Lula 47%, Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Lula 47%, Sergio Moro 34%

Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 22%
Regular: 21%
Bad/very bad: 55%

São Paulo is usually a very conservative state. The left won there only in 2002

1989
1st round: Collor 24.4%, Maluf 23.5%, Covas 22.7%, Lula 17.5%, Afif 4.8%, Ulisses 2.0%
Runoff: Collor 57.9%, Lula 42.1%

1994
1st round: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 55.7%, Lula 27.0%, Enéias 8.9%

1998
1st round: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 59.9%, Lula 28.8%, Ciro Gomes 7.4%

2002
1st round: Lula 46.1%, Serra 28.5%, Garotinho 14.1%, Ciro Gomes 10.6%
Runoff: Lula 55.4%, Serra 44.6%

2006
1st round: Alckmin 54.2%, Lula 36.8%, Heloísa Helena 7.1%, Cristóvam 1.8%
Runoff: Alckmin 52.3%, Lula 47.7%

2010
1st round: Serra 40.7%, Dilma 37.3%, Marina Silva 20.8%, Plinio 1.0%
Runoff: Serra 54.1%, Dilma 45.9%

2014
1st round: Aécio 44.2%, Dilma 25.8%, Marina Silva 25.1%, Luciana 2.4%
Runoff: Aécio 64.3%, Dilma 35.7%

2018
1st round: Bolsonaro 53.0%, Haddad 16.4%, Ciro Gomes 11.4%, Alckmin 9.5%, Amoedo 4.6%
Runoff: Bolsonaro 68.0%, Haddad 32.0%

[buritobr]

Would be interesting if Lula won without a runoff. Certainly highly embarrassing for Bolsonaro

The probability is low but it is not impossible. Lula can have >50% in the first round if Ciro Gomes doesn't run and if PSOL doesn't have its own candidate.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, December 2-5th, 2021

1st round, scenario with all candidates
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 10%, Ciro 5%, Doria 2%, Pacheco 1%, Avila 1%

Runoff
Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 31%
Lula 53%, Moro 29%

Rating Bolsonaro administration
Positive: 21%
Regular: 26%
Negative: 50%