Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?

PSDB primaries to pick their candidate for president in 2022 will already happen in November 21st this year (runoff is November 28th).

It will be a close call between João Doria (Governor of São Paulo) and Eduardo Leite (Governor of Rio Grande do Sul).

On one hand, whoever leads São Paulo is naturally way more powerful because it’s the state that has the largest share of PSDB electorate, while still being the most important Brazilian State economically. João Doria also did well by bringing the Chinese vaccine and anticipating vaccination in the country in a moment the federal government was intentionally inert on the matter.

On the other, João Doria is considered a divisive figure inside the party by most people from other States and Eduardo Leite is currently gaining momentum by getting support from big names in the party who are from places outside São Paulo. There’s this idea from some that João Doria is all ego and not trustworthy leader for the party, besides not even being that popular in his own State. So it will likely be a close primary.

Both Eduardo Leite and João Doria are figures to the right of older and more moderate traditional figures from the party though (such as Geraldo Alckmin, who is likely leaving the party next year).

IMO, the difference between them is mostly opposition rhetoric against Bolsonaro. Doria wants to sell himself as hard opposition against the president since the vaccination process started, while Eduardo Leite is more of a discreet opposition that doesn’t go hard against Bolsonaro.

Eduardo Leite is also probably seen in the party as someone younger and good looking who will represent a new and more positive brand for PSDB. He’s also openly gay and if they want to modernize themselves as this socially open minded economically right-wing option, could be good option to reach more liberal minds. Although it also risks maybe pushing away some of the socially conservative voters, although I hope that the candidate sexuality matters less and less even for these people as time passes.

That said, no one should underestimate the power of being the most powerful Governor of the country, which is the position João Doria holds as the leader of São Paulo. It will probably be close.

Votes of the PSDB primary will be counted like this:

Group 1 (25% weight in the vote) - People who are filiated to the party
Group 2 (25% weight in the vote) - Mayors and Mayor’s VPs from the party
Group 3 (25% weight in the vote) - State deputies (12,5%) and City Council Members (12,5%) from the party
Group 4 (25% weight in the vote) - Governors, Governor’s VPs, Former Presidents and the current PSDB president, Senators and Federal Deputies.

The other major parties don’t have primaries but it’s pretty clear who they will run. Lula running for PT and Ciro Gomes running for PDT is practically confirmed, unless a major twist happens along the way.

Bolsonaro left his party a year after winning the 2018 election so he needs to join a new one in order to run. He is in talks to join PP, which is basically just another “Centrão” dull type of party that would benefit from having him in their ticket simply because he would bring his base alongside and that would mean more votes and seats to their party in the legislative candidacies as a natural consequence. Same thing that happened with PSL in 2018 (they weren’t far-right party, they only became one after accommodating Bolsonaro, which they did in order to grow bigger).

There are other minor names from people from other multiple parties but they are basically mostly irrelevant. When they run it’s mostly to mark their position and try to help the party get more national recognition and votes for the legislative seats.

There’s rumors of maybe Sergio Moro (former judge who jailed Lula and then joined Bolsonaro government as Justice minister, only to later resign because he suddenly “discovered” the government was a mess) running for some party but I strongly doubt it, unless he has some humiliating kink because he would get crushed left and right by both Lula and Bolsonaro. Losing AGAIN to both of them.

Moro already lost to Lula after the Supreme Court released him and gave him back his political rights, after leaks from Car-Wash operation revealed the operation had bias and openly targeted Lula specifically without respecting due process.

And Moro already lost to Bolsonaro, being used as a nice accessory as his minister in order to give Bolsonaro the political benefits as the protagonist of the “Anti corruption right”, just to be later discarded as trash when he wasn’t being useful anymore.

Would be fun to see that sh**tty corrupt ex-judge in his knees again, but I doubt it. He would be hailed as a mainstream media fave though, same way they treated him as a hero in the fake inquisition process against Lula.

Rede Globo media is mostly economically right-wing and socially progressive, which makes them hate the guts of both the top 2 leading candidates. They always hated Lula for being economically left-wing and they currently hate Bolsonaro too for being authoritarian extremist (which is not good for business).

But media support is practically kiss of death nowadays, few still trust or respect them. And they have only themselves to blame for that. Since I don’t think Moro will run, Globo will likely just back the PSDB candidate regardless if it’s João Doria or Eduardo Leite.

In the middle of all this you also have Ciro Gomes being the anti-Lula left-wing option, defending that the Lula government just kept the neoliberalism from previous administrations while just giving the poor minor stuff in order to get their support. Ciro correctly points out that deindustrialization advanced during PT’s governments, which were supposed to work for the working class.

Ciro isn't radically left-wing though, he would be basically same thing as Lula in government (Read this as: he would also be forced to compromise with corrupt centrists in congress). But Ciro would likely give more attention to a nationalist and developmentalist project than Lula, who is running mostly based on his political celeb status than necessarily on a clear project. At least for now.

I see the election basically as a Lula vs Bolsonaro for now. With Ciro wanting to be new Lula and PSDB having to get its right-wing protagonist spot back from Bolsonaro, since they lost most of their voters to him in 2018.

1st tier (the protagonists)
Lula
Bolsonaro

2nd tier (secondary actors trying to get the protagonist spot)
Ciro Gomes
PSDB - Eduardo Leite OR João Doria

3rd tier (extras in the background, mostly irrelevant)
Sérgio Moro
Everyone else (Datena, Mandetta, etc)

[Red Velvet]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

Way too early to tell, as there’s a whole year before the election, but it’s currently looking like that yeah.

I wouldn’t underestimate his chances that much though. Presidents always get blamed for everything bad that happens but they also get praised for every minimal good thing that happens.

If the situation miraculously gets better during 2022, I could see him with some chances. If not, he’s definitely losing though.

[Red Velvet]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

Way too early to tell, as there’s a whole year before the election, but it’s currently looking like that yeah.

I wouldn’t underestimate his chances that much though. Presidents always get blamed for everything bad that happens but they also get praised for every minimal good thing that happens.

If the situation miraculously gets better during 2022, I could see him with some chances. If not, he’s definitely losing though.

I think so too.

It is too early and all these 4 possibilies can happen. None can be eliminated 12 months before
1) Lula win
2) Bolsonaro reelected
3) Non-Bolsonaro right (or "third way") win
4) Lula doesn't run and other leftist win

I want Bolsonaro to run in order for him to lose. Also to keep PSDB dead, there’s no “right-wing third way” that is possible with him being the protagonist of the right.

There’s the possibility that this MF just runs for congress though, same position he comfortably occupied for years and one that it’s easy to get elected for anyone with high name recognition. He would keep the privileged foro and the usual protections in order to escape judicial consequences, while carrying a bunch of crazy people into the congress with him because of the proportional voting.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro is going to win, because there is no justice in this world.

Unless Brazilian economy starts miraculously a quick upwards swing and people get to really feel the effects, that’s largely questionable. Sounds like you want it to happen by the way you repeat it though  

If anything, all the world is suffering with post-Covid inflation and economy problems but it is looking they will be higher here. Bolsonaro is also terrible logistic planner and did nothing to counter the energy crisis that is right there on the door. The last nail on the government coffin would be the start of blackouts in big cities, something people aren’t used to seeing frequently since the end of FHC’s 2nd term, around 2001.

Even for stuff like a coup, you need some level of support and credibility, something he doesn’t have. I don’t underestimate the destructive power of his energetic base though, even if they decrease in numbers every new day. But everyone who tries anything will just be jailed and then ignored by Bolsonaro.

Like, Bolsonaro uses his supporters as expendable firing power against the institutions, but when there’s backlash he acts like they were just independent actors and that he had nothing to deal with them, as if he never stimulated their actions. It’s recurring Groundhog Day theme for the last three years where some cycle of the following happens:

- Bolsonaro feels he or his family is threatened by judiciary or legislative decisions unfavorable towards him.
- Bolsonaro uses authoritarian coup language that flirts with a constitutional break
- Paid online bots organize demonstrations in his support, in order to project strength
- Demonstrations happen with mixed results, not really big to intimidate others, not really small to assume they’re dead
- Some person or some group does something really stupid in these demonstrations though, maybe using neonazi symbols and wanting to throw bombs in the Supreme Court (Sara Winter) or more recently trying to organize a massive Truckers strike until a coup happens (Zé Trovão). I mention these two but there were lots of others, including an elected congressman from his base, who is now in jail (Daniel Silveira).
- Bolsonaro de-escalates his rhetoric in order to not face consequences and basically ignores those radical extremists loyal to him.
- These dumb supporters of him face judicial consequences and go to jail, while nothing happens to Bolsonaro himself.
- Bolsonaro stays quiet for several months after using these submissive trash supporters that he doesn’t even seem to respect, but repeats the process whenever he feels threatened again.

[Red Velvet]

After majority of PDT in congress voted for the PEC of Precatórios (basically takes away Teachers money in order to finance Bolsonaro re-election dreams with a new social program), Ciro Gomes has put his presidential pre-candidature in suspension.

Good to add pressure on the party to change their position on the second round of the vote, I guess. Obviously this is also to distance himself from the party decision and not de-energize his base, which at this point is more in the party just because of Ciro.

I wonder what would happen if Ciro stayed on PSB some few years ago… Would PDT be what PSB is now (this neutral party where some big names are going to by default), or the same thing?

[Red Velvet]

After majority of PDT in congress voted for the PEC of Precatórios (basically takes away Teachers money in order to finance Bolsonaro re-election dreams with a new social program), Ciro Gomes has put his presidential pre-candidature in suspension.

Good to add pressure on the party to change their position on the second round of the vote, I guess. Obviously this is also to distance himself from the party decision and not de-energize his base, which at this point is more in the party just because of Ciro.

I wonder what would happen if Ciro stayed on PSB some few years ago… Would PDT be what PSB is now (this neutral party where some big names are going to by default), or the same thing?

I think Ciro Gomes didn't take inteligent decisions. The probability of being elected is bigger in a major party. 1989 and 2018 were exceptions. Ciro Gomes should have stayed in the PSDB or he should have moved to the PT and tried to find an important place in one of these parties.

PSDB has moved too right-wing to fit his national developmentalist project and PT, well, there’s the Lula factor. Ciro really wants to win by himself and at the same time, I think Lula wouldn’t want him as his sucessor in the same way like Dilma (or even Haddad).

Ciro has a big ego that the only politician that matches him on that regard is Lula himself. That can be a positive, I think the best presidents tend to be the ones who really want it in a personal level in order to show they’re capable and worthy (unlike the ones who want power just for the sake of it), but also puts him in direct conflict with Lula.

In PT I don’t think he would be presidential material, they would make him run to senate because they wouldn’t even want him as VP (which is something that only really goes to someone with Centrão connections OR someone who loves Lula).

So I think Ciro is doing the only path that is possible for what he craves to achieve. PDT isn’t perfect party since some of these centrão-like people started to get in, but it’s still something you can work with well (a Cidadania or an Avante would be much much worse). Like:

PSDB or more right-wing options —> Too right-wing to welcome Ciro ideas on industrialization and national economic development. At most Ciro can get some of their support for elections and that’s already being too generous because he isn’t established name that could pull this off like Lula (who wants freaking Alckmin as his VP and because it’s Lula, it’s not even crazy to consider that possibility lol). OR Ciro would need to abandon his project which would be electoral suicide because his base is energized about his project.

CIDADANIA or AVANTE —> Would have the same problems as PDT but elevated to even more absurd degrees. They’re also too small parties that don’t have consolidated ideological base, which is a problem in order to organize AND energize a base centered on Ciro only.

PDT or PSB —> I think those are the ONLY ones where Ciro fits, although PSB is shaping itself more ideologically with these left people who are sympathetic to Lula but know they won’t have the political leverage with them if they join PT

PT, PCdoB —> Lula has too large influence there. Ciro would need to suck up and just be the bridesmaid hoping one day maybe her time will finally come. Which let’s face it, it would be never. When Lula passes out, Ciro will be too old to run.

PSOL —> Ciro is probably too politically incorrect in his rhetoric and too Anti-Lula to do anything there after they opted to be a pro-Lula party with the Boulos influence. I think old PSOL, with founding figure Heloísa Helena who was even more critical of Lula than Ciro, would be interesting ally but they aren’t that same party anymore and are becoming what PCdoB is.

Ciro best option is to stay in PDT and try to change it, while trying to establish this Anti-Lula center left in the same way there was a Lula-Brizola conflict in the old days. His chances are still very small because Lula has probably grown to be something too large in order to be taken out by a new alternative from a similar ideological field, but they would be worse elsewhere.

[Red Velvet]

Since Bolsonaro left his former party PSL in 2019, he isn't member of any party now. But it is necessary to be a member of a party in order to run for the reelection.
Today, the media showed that Jair Bolsonaro will become a member of the Partido Liberal (PL).

Why did he leave PSL?

Conflict between the liberal and conservative factions of the party. The liberal faction won the internal war, so he (and his more loyal allies) had to leave.

[Red Velvet]

Quaest Poll November 2021
Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 21%, Sergio Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, João Doria 2%, Rodrigo Pacheco 1%
Runoff: Lula 57%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%

Considering valid votes only (excluding the 14% that are null/blanks/abstentions), this is >50% for Lula which would mean an outright win on the 1st round without the need for a runoff. Same poll but considering only valid votes:

Lula 56%
Bolsonaro 24%
Moro 9%
Ciro 7%
Doria 2%
Pacheco 1%

Runoff: Lula 68% vs Bolsonaro 32%

[Red Velvet]

Now with Moro and Bolsonaro joining or about to join a party, it looks like we at least finally know which ones will probably on the run, at least the main ones.

Only thing yet to be determined is who will be the PSDB candidate.

Lula - PT (Workers Party). Number: 13
Bolsonaro - PL (Liberal Party). Number: 22
Ciro Gomes - PDT (Democratic Labour Party). Number: 12
Sérgio Moro - PODEMOS (We Can). Number: 44
Eduardo Leite or João Doria - PSDB (Brazilian Social-Democratic Party). Number: 45

More interesting to see will be the alliances. REPUBLICANOS, PP and UNIÃO (fusion between DEM + PSL) will probably form a coallition with Bolsonaro’s PL since they’re the most liberal and/or conservative parties from centrão.

Besides those, there’s also NOVO which could likely support Bolsonaro as well if they don’t run their own candidate, considering they have at this point moved from being this Liberal-Libertarian kind of party for entrepreneurs and such to more of a Bolsonarist-friendly type of party.

Meanwhile, I imagine most of the left (except PDT, maybe REDE too) will just get behind Lula since he’s the favorite to win. I can see PCdoB (as usual) but this time also PSOL and PSB forming a coalition with PT. Hell, PT could very well get the support of many centrist opportunist parties as well, like in the 00s. Maybe even MDB eventually (Michel Temer’s party) or PSD?

Everyone else will have much harder time. PODEMOS is centrão-like type of party but Sergio Moro is hated by most politicians while also being currently unpopular among society. It’s hard for me to imagine who would form coallition with them, maybe PSC like in 2018, idk.

Ciro in PDT at most will just get something like AVANTE again, maybe CIDADANIA too. Although idk what REDE would do now since I don’t think Marina would run again. REDE could get behind him too, if they don’t support Lula.

Then PSDB I have no freaking idea lol. They had large coallition in 2018 but that was mostly the right-wing parties I mentioned here likely to support Bolsonaro or that accommodated him (PL, PP, DEM) or opportunist centrist parties like PSD or SOLIDARIEDADE that could very well support Lula in 2022 since he’s the favorite. I think they will definitely get the support of some minor ones, like Ciro probably also will, but it will probably the most reduced coallition from them in a presidential election that I’ve seen in a long time.

That of course, is related to PSDB losing the protagonism they had in politics until 2014. Polarization logic was between PT vs PSDB and now it looks like to be PT vs Bolsonaro with the surge of this new right. They still had big coallition in 2018 because no one expected Bolsonaro to win or have realistic chances early on and just thought PSDB would finally have their big victory over PT after four consecutive losses. It won’t be the same thing in 2022, with Bolsonaro and now also Moro occupying a big part of the space it was theirs.

[Red Velvet]

So, Moro filiation with PODEMOS (We Can) already took place.

But Bolsonaro filiation to PL, scheduled to happen in an event today, was suspended in the last minute. Apparently there are some internal disagreements. PL has a compromise to support the João Doria appointed candidate for Governor of São Paulo, Rodrigo Garcia. Doria and Bolsonaro don’t get along, so Bolsonaro was pushing for the party abandon their support of Garcia to governor of São Paulo. Which made the party temporarily suspend his filiation without a new date to happen.

Bolsonaro really has Midas touch on reverse, everything he touches turns into sh**t. Joining PSL (Social Liberal Party) led to an internal party conflict; his attempt to create his own part ApB (Alliance for Brazil) didn’t get enough signatures in time; filiation to PATRIOTAS (Patriot party) failed and now the filiation to PL (Liberal Party) could go the same way.

To run for elections in Brazil, you must be a member of a political party, there’s no such thing as running as an independent. In order for Bolsonaro to run for the 2022 elections, he is obligated to join a party, any party, until the end of March 2022 or else he won’t be able to run.

I’m sure he’ll get into one eventually even if it’s in the last minute. There are tons of minor irrelevant parties that would love to have a “big name” running for them in order to increase their name awareness and also increase their votes for congress, resulting in larger number of seats (and consequentially reserve their right to more campaign money). There were talks of Bolsonaro potentially joining the PMB (Party of the Brazilian Woman) for example. But I think if PL filiation doesn’t work out, he’s more likely to simply join his old party PP (Progressive Party) or maybe REPUBLICANOS (Republicans).

[Red Velvet]

Also, rumors say that what Moro really wants is a senate run, although the buzz is for the presidency. Makes a lot of sense, as he has way too much rejection from both the left (authoritarian who jailed Lula) and right (traitor who backstabbed Bolsonaro) for a national presidential campaign.

Senate is a much more likely win for him, has 8 year duration, 2 months vacation per year and still allows him to have a bunch of advisors at his disposal. Sounds like a no-brainer, if I were an opportunist like him.

If Moro really goes for the senate and Bolsonaro somehow doesn’t join a party (very unlikely), that would be PSDB dreams of open field in the right and would likely mean a reserved spot in a runoff against PT just like in the not so distant past. That is, IF Lula doesn’t simply win outright the election on 1st round, of course.

[Red Velvet]

Curious to see what will be the outcome of the PSDB primaries on Sunday. Earlier, Leite seemed to be closing in on Doria, but do you guys think he will make it? Or has Doria been able to stop the bleeding?

There was a story that came out saying Leite tried to attend a request from Bolsonaro to ask Doria to delay the vaccination more, so that a federal vaccination program was established before. And Leite, instead of denying this story, confirmed as if it was something he was proud of. He probably also didn’t want Doria to get the political credits of the person “who started vaccination in Brazil”.

That didn’t sit well with many people. Doria isn’t popular but his efforts to start vaccination are, considering how Bolsonaro actually tried to delay it (having ignored ELEVEN proposals from Pfizer offering a deal). Brazil has only recently passed countries like USA in fully vaccinated, we have 77% partially vaccinated and 60,9% fully vaccinated according to Reuters, but that should have happened much earlier if we had gotten early access to a big number of vaccines. Brazil has a more pro-vaccination society than many of these countries and a more efficient immunization healthcare system.

Vaccination started in January thanks to Doria efforts of bringing SinoVac to Brazil. But even then, the numbers of vaccines arriving here was limited, so the vaccination process started slow in comparison of what should have been. Only after May or June a larger amount of vaccines started arriving and the vaccination process fastened really quick. If Bolsonaro bought the vaccines early in 2020 instead of actively ignoring offers, we would have started vaccinating in a larger scale in January already and the 2nd wave of deaths that happened in 2021 wouldn’t be as severe.

So it’s not a good look for Eduardo Leite at all, that he tried to help Bolsonaro delay vaccination even more. Idk what will happen, I think PSDB has strong anti-Doria factions (the existence of this primary is probably to make his nomination more complicated) and Leite more political support overall with Party leaderships in a national scale but these news were terrible for Leite. Will be easier for the left to push a narrative he’s just “gay Bolsonaro” if he’s the PSDB nominee. Doria allied himself with Bolsonaro in 2018 (everyone in the right did tbh) through the BolsoDoria campaign but his very public fights against Bolsonaro in regards COVID measures and vaccination were able to disassociate his image from his in the public imaginary.

[Red Velvet]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

[Red Velvet]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

Brazil (or Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran or even China) is not US or UK in their international economic stand, so yeah. Extremely cray cray to think Brazil is like those countries.

Even in a rich country like France, the liberalization process is something that happened with extremely ACTIVE State participation in order to protect national sovereignty on the oil production. Not that this discussion is something conservatives care much about, as they’re completely incompetent in dealing with the economy other than in a simple cash flow way that only thinks about a short term period strategy (or even none at all, as Mike pointed out).

[Red Velvet]

Well, Moro, from what I've read, is definitely going to run, so like buritobr said, the PSDB is toasted. However, correct if I'm wrong, but what's the possibility of some kind of a unity candidacy in the anti-Bolsonaro center-right area? A PSDB-União Brasil-PSD alliance, maybe with Moro even in it, and with the possiblity of Leite or Doria as VP?

Not going to happen. What could happen is maybe Moro deciding he wants to go for senate in the last minute, leaving PSDB be the “center-right protagonists”.

But I wouldn’t put much hope into PSDB tbh. They’re kind of done. Moro would have more success than them. PSDB completely destroyed their identity as a party continuously since Aécio’s run in 2014. Populists like Bolsonaro / Moro are the new face of the right and are here to stay over them.

Even if Moro doesn’t run, it’s hard for me to picture PSDB getting double digits in the vote. Polls WITH Moro show PSDB getting around 2%-3% in the presidential vote, while polls WITHOUT Moro show PSDB getting around 5%-6% of the vote. Not really much of a bump, even if means they double their little vote intention.

PSDB OR Moro are only going to have a chance if the Bolsonaro base melts significantly and goes back to them. Otherwise, they don’t stand a chance, even if they were to “unite”.

[Red Velvet]

Right, and every one of those countries has dealt with major problems from state owned companies (PEMEX oil spills, PEMEX losses, Aramco profits falling, Gazprom corruption, Iran inefficiency, France slow growth + stagnation), and 2/5 of China's top oil companies are private. Having a private oil or banking supply by no means means that national security is at stake: Norway, Canada, the US, and more have all balanced the two, nor does it mean one is only thinking of short term interests (the US has never had a state run banking system, and neither has the UK).

There are multiple private banks here and Banco do Brasil is mixed-economy. Each company has their own different and complementing purpose that coexist with each other. Each has their own niche. Only ideologues tend to defend stuff like “nationalize/privatize everything”.

The private banks like Bradesco, Santander and Itaú Unibanco attend and dispute the richest segments of the population, who are very well attended by these banks.

Then you have a mixed-economy bank like Banco do Brasil and also a State bank like Caixa that can attend better the national interests of the population. Private banks aren’t interested in doing housing financing for those who are in the lowest income brackets for obvious reasons just to give one very simple example. There are other multiple interests in not having ONLY private banks available.

The five biggest banks in Brazil (three private, one mixed-economy and one fully state-owned) coexist and attend the different needs of the population and the country pretty well. There’s no vision of future (of combined economic AND social relevance) that justifies any change.

[Red Velvet]

PSDB is a joke lmaaao

They wanted to save money in the development of the app, even HERE they can’t help themselves but be a bunch of lousy cheapskates.

[Red Velvet]

Recent polls have shown Sergio Moro consolidating that third position, surpassing Ciro Gomes. I think he has the most room to grow.

High rejection rate, but media is desperate to make him happen. He’s not a real politician either, not a good speaker so the campaign will be a problem.

[Red Velvet]

New IPESPE poll:

Lula 42% (+1)
Bolsonaro 25% (-3)
Sérgio Moro 11% (+3)
Ciro Gomes 9%
João Doria 2%

The scenario with Leite instead of Doria are exactly the same numbers but only Bolsonaro changing to 24% for some reason.

[Red Velvet]

João Doria has won the PSDB primaries and will be the party candidate in the next year election.

Results:

João Doria 53,99%
Eduardo Leite 44,66%
Arthur Virgílio 1,35%

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro government approval hits all time low, first time lower than 20%!!!

Atlas poll (23/11 - 26/11) asked Brazilians about their opinion about the Bolsonaro government. Results are:

Bad or Awful - 60% (-1)
Regular - 20% (+6)
Good or Great - 19% (-5)
Doesn’t yet know - 1%

Evolution alongside all of Bolsonaro mandate:



Media buzz and between some entrepreneurship groups is that they could maybe jump ship and that Moro/PSDB would become their candidate. There’s the (slight) possibility that Bolsonaro could miss the runoff if he keeps this freefall. But even if he melts, a 3rd option needs to concentrate a good amount of votes and I’m not really sure Moro (golden boy of the establishment media) will actually deliver in the campaign like lots of powerful people are hoping. He’s just an empty “picture” who still need to prove his political skills, only representing nothing more than the anti-PT angst.

[Red Velvet]

Lmao at the gender gap. A -52 net approval with women is so funny. Thank heavens for women always being more rational and “pragmatic” than men, who are extremely emotional driven. Female voters are more center than anything, in the 00s men happened to lean more to PT while women kinda preferred PSDB back then but radicalization of the right shifted this.

But even between Brazilian men Bolsonaro has a -19 net approval, he’s so done. He also melted his favorability in the South region. Center-West being the more favorable region (not by much though) is likely influence of parts of the agro support he still retains.

Regarding income class divide, it’s weird but it also makes totally sense that the poorest and the richest brackets are the ones with his worst numbers. Shows how much he’s hated for both the economic austerity (low approval with the poorest) and the cultural uneducated conservative insanity that shames upper classes (low approval with the richest).

The fact that 43% of evangelicals still somehow approve this government shows how this groups tends to be more identitary than other religious groups, all of which have very low approval ratings for the president (all less than 30%)

And the final thing, we clearly are about to have tons and tons of Bolsonaro 2018 - Lula 2022 voters since 1/3 of the people who voted for this president jumped ship and disapprove him. But the Haddad 2018 - Bolsonaro 2022 voter won’t exist.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro finally officially joined PL (Liberal Party).

[Red Velvet]

Sensus poll

Lula (PT) 50,6%
Bolsonaro (PL) 28,7%
Sérgio Moro (PODEMOS) 8,9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 6,3%
João Doria (PSDB) 2,1%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 1,4%
Henrique Mandetta (UNIÃO) 1,2%

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro finally officially joined PL (Liberal Party).

Impressive.

Neither of these are left-wing parties. Progressistas (Progressives) are a right-wing party currently part of Bolsonaro’s base.

Basically the words “conservative” or more right-wing terms were too strongly associated with the military regime after the end of the dictatorship which is why parties wouldn’t adopt names that were too unpopular. That’s why almost all Brazilian party names sound very left-wing or at least in the center but you would be doing a mistake to assume their position by their names.