Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

Feijóo has said he has talked with the leaders of UPN, CC, PNV, and Vox. UPN will support him, while CC "left the door open", according to him. PNV supporting a Feijóo government would be something... well...let's say weird. Not sure how would Vox even support this, they are agaist regional parties, but, who knows, power can make people do inconcebible things.

But, I just don't know what will happen. It's very messy and confusing. Never has the Portuguese saying been so true: "De Espanha, nem bom vento, nem bom casamento." ("From Spain, neither good wind, nor good marriage.")

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Damn, this place must be funny taking into consideration proximity of Marinaleda.

[mileslunn]

Feijóo has said he has talked with the leaders of UPN, CC, PNV, and Vox. UPN will support him, while CC "left the door open", according to him. PNV supporting a Feijóo government would be something... well...let's say weird. Not sure how would Vox even support this, they are agaist regional parties, but, who knows, power can make people do inconcebible things.

But, I just don't know what will happen. It's very messy and confusing. Never has the Portuguese saying been so true: "De Espanha, nem bom vento, nem bom casamento." ("From Spain, neither good wind, nor good marriage.")

Only way he gets CC let alone PNV would be to govern alone but get those to vote for him on investiture.  Vox probably would only agree to that if he agrees to incorporate some of their policies.

[Mike88]

Feijóo has said he has talked with the leaders of UPN, CC, PNV, and Vox. UPN will support him, while CC "left the door open", according to him. PNV supporting a Feijóo government would be something... well...let's say weird. Not sure how would Vox even support this, they are agaist regional parties, but, who knows, power can make people do inconcebible things.

But, I just don't know what will happen. It's very messy and confusing. Never has the Portuguese saying been so true: "De Espanha, nem bom vento, nem bom casamento." ("From Spain, neither good wind, nor good marriage.")

Only way he gets CC let alone PNV would be to govern alone but get those to vote for him on investiture.  Vox probably would only agree to that if he agrees to incorporate some of their policies.

That would be the equivalent of doing the pirouette, the somersault and the handstand all at the same time.

[mileslunn]

Feijóo has said he has talked with the leaders of UPN, CC, PNV, and Vox. UPN will support him, while CC "left the door open", according to him. PNV supporting a Feijóo government would be something... well...let's say weird. Not sure how would Vox even support this, they are agaist regional parties, but, who knows, power can make people do inconcebible things.

But, I just don't know what will happen. It's very messy and confusing. Never has the Portuguese saying been so true: "De Espanha, nem bom vento, nem bom casamento." ("From Spain, neither good wind, nor good marriage.")

Only way he gets CC let alone PNV would be to govern alone but get those to vote for him on investiture.  Vox probably would only agree to that if he agrees to incorporate some of their policies.

That would be the equivalent of doing the pirouette, the somersault and the handstand all at the same time.

So I am guessing in end new elections are a strong likelihood?  While PP + Vox close to majority I don't see them getting over line unless can get some abstentions.  With PSOE + Sumar even more daunting.  Yes regionalist allies get them a lot closer but not sure enough to get over line either.

[Mike88]

Feijóo has said he has talked with the leaders of UPN, CC, PNV, and Vox. UPN will support him, while CC "left the door open", according to him. PNV supporting a Feijóo government would be something... well...let's say weird. Not sure how would Vox even support this, they are agaist regional parties, but, who knows, power can make people do inconcebible things.

But, I just don't know what will happen. It's very messy and confusing. Never has the Portuguese saying been so true: "De Espanha, nem bom vento, nem bom casamento." ("From Spain, neither good wind, nor good marriage.")

Only way he gets CC let alone PNV would be to govern alone but get those to vote for him on investiture.  Vox probably would only agree to that if he agrees to incorporate some of their policies.

That would be the equivalent of doing the pirouette, the somersault and the handstand all at the same time.

So I am guessing in end new elections are a strong likelihood?  While PP + Vox close to majority I don't see them getting over line unless can get some abstentions.  With PSOE + Sumar even more daunting.  Yes regionalist allies get them a lot closer but not sure enough to get over line either.

All options are on the table, although with different degrees of probability: A Feijóo government is on the border of impossibility, but who knows; Sanchéz is dependent on Junts and the question is will he accept paying that price? And also, what kind of price?; And a snap election, well, the dates talked about can only make you laugh. If the first investiture vote fails and no one is able to put forward an alternative one, the likely election dates are 17, 24 or 31 December 2023. And we all thought that a July election was the worst mistake ever.

[BigSerg]

The separatists go from 42.6% to 27.2% of the votes and lose 9 seats.

ERC: 13.2% and -6
Junts X Cat: 11.2% and -1
CUP: 2.8% -2

Part of the ERC vote was for the Psoe, but most of the debâcle was due to the abstention of 11 points. I insist, maybe ERC wants to commit suicide by supporting Sanchez again but Junts, I don't think so. Either a referendum or new elections

[BigSerg]

How powerful is the senate? If the right controls that body does it screw over Sanchez?

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1683371591902674944

This is partially true. For autonomous community matters, the Senate has some power.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The separatists go from 42.6% to 27.2% of the votes and lose 9 seats.

ERC: 13.2% and -6
Junts X Cat: 11.2% and -1
CUP: 2.8% -2

Part of the ERC vote was for the Psoe, but most of the debâcle was due to the abstention of 11 points. I insist, maybe ERC wants to commit suicide by supporting Sanchez again but Junts, I don't think so. Either a referendum or new elections

Now that we have the most detailed election results possible, we know that abstentions played only a limited role in the beating experienced by Catalonian nationalists. There was a large increase in abstentions throughout Catalonia, including in neighborhoods where nationalist parties receive nil support. It's true that the abstention rate increased to a great extent in nationalist strongholds but it was still substantial in Baix Llobregat and Barcelona. There's no reason to believe that it was only nationalists staying home in these areas because in apartment complexes where maybe 10% support nationalist parties, the same rise in abstention occurred.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Secretary General of Podemos, Ione Belarra, is tackling Yolanda Diaz hard :

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230724/9130580/belarra-culpa-diaz-perdida-votos-renuncia-feminismo-e-invisibilizar.html

I was also perplexed as to why Sumar were so happy with losing seats, but in a context where the "left of PSOE" parties were on a road to a cliff and being wiped out fully, it is understandable. Still, I find Diaz's campaigning a bit too much like the "Everything is Awesome" Lego Movie song. Hugs and smiles won't solve crippled political systems.

Here's why Sumar failed to improve upon Podemos performance: they didn't emphasize gender neutral pronouns enough and they didn't emphasize their association with political figures who are despised by 80% of Spaniards enough.

[BigSerg]

How powerful is the senate? If the right controls that body does it screw over Sanchez?

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1683371591902674944

This is partially true. For autonomous community matters, the Senate has some power.

For example, as far as I know, Congress cannot intervene in the distribution of funds to the autonomous communities, which corresponds to the Senate. And that can really screw Sánchez if he starts promising to give away money to the separatists.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Damn, this place must be funny taking into consideration proximity of Marinaleda.

Can any Spaniards explain the situation here? How did this place go from anarchist commune to suburban Miami?

[kaoras]

Damn, this place must be funny taking into consideration proximity of Marinaleda.

The boring reality, much like that random town won by PACMA in the middle of Castilla, is that is a transcription error.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Sánchez descarta la repetición de elecciones: “La democracia encontrará la fórmula de la gobernabilidad”
El líder socialista niega la posibilidad de un bloqueo en la reunión de la ejecutiva del PSOE, en la que ha celebrado que “11 millones de personas han votado avance”

Sanchez discounts a repeat election: "Democracy will find the formula to govern"
The Socialist leader denies the possibility of an obstruction in a reunion of the PSOE executive, in which he celebrated that "11 million people voted to move forward"

Spaniards let me know if this no-professional-Spanish-knowledge Latino mistranslated the headline. Thanks

[FrancoAgo]

Casariche actual result
Sumar 1105
PSOE 951
PP 421
FE de las Jons 278
Vox 209
FO 152
PACMA 30
PCTE 7

[kaoras]

Casariche actual result
Sumar 1105
PSOE 951
PP 421
FE de las Jons 278
Vox 209
FO 152
PACMA 30
PCTE 7

That still has the transcription error from that precinct. In fact, is even more obvious because FE de las JONS supposedly got 278 votes in that specific section which means it got 0 in the rest of the municipality.

Frente Obrero also "got" 149 in that precinct and 3 votes in the rest of Casariche.

[Logical]

This is the actual result from the local government.
https://twitter.com/aytocasariche/status/1683436976509206530

[DL]

How do you pronounce "Feijóo"? - seems like a strange name

[Logical]

How do you pronounce "Feijóo"? - seems like a strange name

Fake hoe. No I'm not joking.
Alright, it's actually Fay-hoe.

[somerandomth]

What do we reckon the likelihood of an election before 2024 is then?

[palandio]

Sorry if this has already been asked, but maybe some more knowledgeable posters can answer this:

Why has right-of-center moderate Catalanism become electorally unviable? It seems that a part of former CiU voters embraced Puigdemont's radicalization on the Catalan question and his tentatives to swallow the rest of the pro-independence spectrum; while the rest of CiU's once formidable 30-40% completely jumped ship. Uniò running alone, PDeCAT running alone, PNC, etc. all failed miserably. Superficially one might expect a big void at that place in the Catalan political landscape, but there seem to be no voters in that place.

[Bacon King]

For example, as far as I know, Congress cannot intervene in the distribution of funds to the autonomous communities, which corresponds to the Senate. And that can really screw Sánchez if he starts promising to give away money to the separatists.

I'm fairly certain this is not true

afaik there's only one situation where the Senate has any sort of exclusive jurisdiction over autonomous communities: authorizing the dissolution/suspension of elected governments that blatantly violate Spanish law (e.g. Catalonia in 2017) per Section 155 of the Spanish Constitution. Even here the Senate can't act independently: the Prime Minister's government must itself seek the intervention, the Senate just decides whether to authorize it.

1. If a Self-governing Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of the Self-governing Community and failed to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the above-mentioned general interest.

2. With a view to implementing the measures provided for in the foregoing paragraph, the Government may issue instructions to all the authorities of the Self-governing Communities.

(English translation c/o the Spanish government's own official website)

[Vosem]

So Sanchez didn't lose, but he also didn't win. And Feijoo won, but he also lost. Don't you just love multi-party provincial D'Hondt?

Feijóo definitely lost in the sense that there's no way on these numbers that he can form a government (although he made large gains, which is a win of sorts in a multi-party system), while Sánchez sort of won in the sense that a path seems to exist, though it's unlikely and new elections are probably likelier than not.

(Although Feijóo came very, very close; I think the question of just how left-wing the CERA vote is pretty critical. If PP can gain just 2 seats, then a Sánchez government is probably totally foreclosed; at that point Sánchez would need Junts to explicitly vote for him, and not just strategically abstain.)

If Junts votes for PP, then Vox is voting against them. Why would Vox allow an independentista party to prop up any government? They ran on banning them.

At that point, PP/Vox/UPN are at 172, and then all of the parties which are not right or not Junts are at 171-172; thus even Junts abstaining wouldn't be enough to elect Sánchez, because he wouldn't have a plurality without Junts voting for him explicitly. At the moment the question is whether Sánchez can get Junts to strategically abstain.

Of course Junts would not vote for PP. "Voting against every option and forcing a new election" is to some extent the null hypothesis, but "abstaining if it seats Sánchez" is also possible. But explicitly voting for Sánchez seems like a higher ask to me.

(There isn't a risk that voting against Sánchez might seat Feijóo; they could just vote against both. Of course if you force a new election then anything at all might happen in that second election, OTOH.)

[Lumine]

PNV announces that it will not hold talks with Feijoo nor support any attempt of his to an investiture process. Inevitable of course, but it closes for good that implausible door.

Junts is also upping the ante on its prospective demands towards Sánchez.

Oh, and C's might considering running this time if there's a second election. Wonder if they can break 1% if they do so.

[Zinneke]

Sorry if this has already been asked, but maybe some more knowledgeable posters can answer this:

Why has right-of-center moderate Catalanism become electorally unviable? It seems that a part of former CiU voters embraced Puigdemont's radicalization on the Catalan question and his tentatives to swallow the rest of the pro-independence spectrum; while the rest of CiU's once formidable 30-40% completely jumped ship. Uniò running alone, PDeCAT running alone, PNC, etc. all failed miserably. Superficially one might expect a big void at that place in the Catalan political landscape, but there seem to be no voters in that place.

My theory is that their electorate had 2 constituencies:

The first are people who were die hard Convergents, who basically voted for it (and now JxC) almost out of family habit since the Transition, they always had at the very least constitutional reform and eventual autonomy as an end goal. They got disillusioned with the Spanish state and any suggestion of accomodation with it when the Spanish Supreme Court [which is politicised due to its nomination by the Senate, itself a barely democratic institution designed to favour PPSOE], struck down the articles of the new Catalan Constitution in 2010. From then on a period of polarisation of the Catalan national issue was inevitable. And the "moderate Catalanist" stance, which was essentially represented by that constitution as a compromise, became a fantasy. Add to that that Convergents were facing corruption scandals (Pujol, Artur Mas) that required sometimes confusing rebranding and an end to their whole schtick about being a clean centrist soft nationalist entity and you can see why they decided to go on the road to secession. They always had also some pressure from the civil society actors like ANC, and now JxC essentially is dependent on the latter now. Unio went with PSC to incarnate the soft nationalist stance, and even figures in the PSC like Iceta were saying that if 65% of Catalans voted for independence the PSC would back it (a brave statement to make as a PSC figure). So there was a home for those types of people who refused polarisation but were traditionally "Catalanist" in their voting pattern.

Then there are the ones who voted Convergencia for a lower tax bracket. They probably are voting either PP if they literally only care about money and tax brackets, or PSC if they think "The Proces" was a danger to their assets. A lot of bourgeois areas like Sarria-San Gervasi, San Cugat etc have seen gains this election for PSC and PP. Could be those types of people.