How Did Division I-A College Football Cities vote by PRES in 2020?

[NOVA Green]

So, this is basically a Sister / Brother thread to that which I created for the 2016 PRES GE:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5837408#msg5837408

1.) I am not interested in speculation, only real data based upon official election sources.

2.) This is specific to only the Cities and not focused on "College Counties".

3.) Part of the goal of the project is once again to assess how the "Student Vote" went in 2020, which is perhaps an even more interesting area of exploration in the era of COVID-19, where in many parts of the Country, and sometimes dependent upon Universities / Colleges, where frequently many Freshman & Sophomore students are increasingly taking classes remotely, etc...

4.) My intention is once we start getting more detailed and finalized precinct numbers to continue part of the project which I started towards the tail end of the thread to drill down to County Level Precinct Results...

5.) So here are the latest updates I made to my spreadsheet on 12/27/17, although not sure if I had posted all of the data or upgraded my tracking sheet for newer data sets.

Regardless: Basically it is divided by Football Conference, University, and City result %.

On the far right are numbers I was crunching from Campus Dorm vs heavily Off Campus Student Precincts.

Honestly many of the City numbers missing I could probably update now, but some of them were in states not as much in my radar.  

So Here we go:  Tables of Division 1-A Football Cities in 2016 Review:

Enjoy!!! Plus a giant dump of 2016 City numbers in one easy location...  

[NOVA Green]

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[NOVA Green]

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[NOVA Green]

Mountain State East Conference:

Wyoming State Certified Results:

University of Wyoming--- Laramie Wyoming GE 2020:

Let's Start with the precinct Map of Laramie, Wyoming:

https://www.co.albany.wy.us/DocumentCenter/View/3386/City-Polling-Places-PDF



So basically there are (13) precincts in Albany County, Wyoming (Overwhelming majority of voters live within the City of Laramie)...

We have the following precincts clearly located within City Limits:

13-1
13-2
13-3
14-1
45-2
46-1
46-2

45-1 appears as a potential Split precinct:

I am temporarily excluding it from the mix to look at the City Proper:

2020 GE PRES: Laramie Wyoming:

Trump: 4,801     (37.4%)         (+19.5% Biden)
Biden:  7,302     (56.9%)
Misc:      729      ( 5.7%)
TOTAL: 12,832

So Laramie was something like 44% HRC, 40% DJT, and 17% other in 2016...

So looking roughly like a +15-16% D swing between '12 and '16?

I haven't even really reviewed the Student precincts yet, and also will need to consider if I included precinct 45-1 in my initial 2016 posting numbers before feeling totally confident on "apples to apples" swings within the City.

Still, something to drool over for any of y'all considering in going to College in one of the coolest Cities in Wyoming, but you can always cross the Mountain over Native Land and drop into the Bright Lights Big City of Cheyenne if you wanna hang out in the all hour bars, where you got 24x7 roughnecks or Refinery Workers looking for a Good Time and some Country Music Line Dancing...

Honestly not a bad part of the US, although it can get butt ass cold in the Winter time when you get those gusts coming off the Canadian Rockies..

[7,052,770]

Mountain State East Conference:

Sorry to be that guy, but it's the Mountain West Conference, which is divided into the Mountain and West Divisions for football:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_West_Conference

Also, you listed Idaho in the Sun Belt, but it joined the Big Sky (an FCS conference) a few years ago. And New Mexico State and Connecticut are Independents now, as is Liberty.

[NOVA Green]

Mountain State East Conference:

Sorry to be that guy, but it's the Mountain West Conference, which is divided into the Mountain and West Divisions for football:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_West_Conference

Also, you listed Idaho in the Sun Belt, but it joined the Big Sky (an FCS conference) a few years ago. And New Mexico State and Connecticut are Independents now, as is Liberty.

Et Tu Harry?

You have always been the man   ...   

So basically I have to upgrade my Division 1-A Table to include various updates to incorporate Conference shifts?

[mileslunn]

Be interesting to get the numbers of those available.  Also raw numbers as I would like to see county breakdown between city and rest.

[NOVA Green]

Big 12 Conference: University of Oklahoma- Norman Oklahoma:




Hoping I didn't miss a precinct in my summary, but please review just in case...

So basically, right now with Oklahoma results certified, I am showing something like the following for the 2020 GE numbers from the City of Norman:

Trump:    30,830     (48.4%)
Biden:     31,074     (48.8%)        (+0.4% Biden)    +0.5% PUB SWING
Misc:         1,798     ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:    63,702

2016 GE PRES Numbers were:

Trump: 45.5%
HRC:    46.4%         (+0.9% HRC)

Maybe I am missing a precinct for Norman City results, or maybe there were shifts in Campus populations or voting patterns with COVID etc...

I haven't done a compare/contrast by precinct against 2016 GE PRES numbers to account for these variable, but still gonna throw out the raw numbers for peer review, since honestly I would have expected this to be a place which might have swung DEM in 2020...



   

[NOVA Green]

Oklahoma State University--- Stillwater Oklahoma- Big 12 Conference:

BIDEN FLIP!!!!

Certified results:

2020 GE:

Trump: 6,630    (47.3%)       +1.6% DEM     (+8.5% DEM Swing '16 to '20)
Biden:  6,825    (48.7%)
Misc:      556     ( 4.0%)
TOTAL: 14,011

2016 GE:

Trump:  6,634  (48.3%)        +6.9% R
HRC:     5,679  (41.4%)
Misc:     1,411  (10.3%)
TOTAL: 13,724

Will be following up shortly with the Campus precincts versus non-campus precinct compare & contrast numbers between '16 and '12.

[NOVA Green]

Oklahoma State University--- Stillwater Oklahoma- Big 12 Conference:

BIDEN FLIP!!!!

Certified results:

2020 GE:

Trump: 6,630    (47.3%)       +1.6% DEM     (+8.5% DEM Swing '16 to '20)
Biden:  6,825    (48.7%)
Misc:      556     ( 4.0%)
TOTAL: 14,011

2016 GE:

Trump:  6,634  (48.3%)        +6.9% R
HRC:     5,679  (41.4%)
Misc:     1,411  (10.3%)
TOTAL: 13,724

Will be following up shortly with the Campus precincts versus non-campus precinct compare & contrast numbers between '16 and '12.

As promised since Payne County precincts did not change between 2016 and 2020, here are the same breakdowns which I used in 2016 to divide the City into "Campus Precincts, off-campus student overwhelmingly student precincts, and precincts which had a significantly lower level of University Students:

2020 PRES GE:

Campus:

Trump:  472    (40.3%)              +15.0% Biden     (+8.4% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
Biden:   648    (55.3%)
Misc:      51     ( 4.4%)
Total:   1,171

Off-Campus Student:

Trump:  1,035 (40.4%)
Biden:   1,412 (55.1%)               +14.7% Biden    (+7.1% DEM Swing '16 >'20)
Misc:       117  ( 4.6%)
Total:    2,564

Non Overwhelmingly Student Precincts:

Trump:  5,123  (49.9%)
Biden:   4,765  (46.4%)          +3.5% Trump       (+9.9% DEM Swing '16>'20)
Misc:       388   ( 3.8%)
Total:    10,276

Here are the comparable 2016 GE PRES Results:

Campus:

Trump:   671     (40.8%)              +6.6% HRC
HRC  :    779     (47.4%)
MISC:     193     (11.7%)
Total:   1,643

Off-Campus Student:

Trump:  1,045 (40.4%)
HRC:     1,254 (48.0%)               +7.6% HRC
Misc:       315 ( 12.1%)
Total:    2,614

Non Overwhelmingly Student Precincts:

Trump:  4,918  (51.9%)
HRC:     3,646  (38.5%)          +13.4% Trump
Misc:       903   ( 9.5%)
Total:    9,467

Biden flips Stillwater, despite a smaller student population in 2020 compared to 2016, despite consolidating most of the 3rd party votes on Campus and Off-Campus student precincts.

Still, the major swings in non heavily campus precincts is really what flipped Stillwater in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Big 12 Conference: University of Oklahoma- Norman Oklahoma:




Hoping I didn't miss a precinct in my summary, but please review just in case...

So basically, right now with Oklahoma results certified, I am showing something like the following for the 2020 GE numbers from the City of Norman:

Trump:    30,830     (48.4%)
Biden:     31,074     (48.8%)        (+0.4% Biden)    +0.5% PUB SWING
Misc:         1,798     ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:    63,702

2016 GE PRES Numbers were:

Trump: 45.5%
HRC:    46.4%         (+0.9% HRC)

Maybe I am missing a precinct for Norman City results, or maybe there were shifts in Campus populations or voting patterns with COVID etc...

I haven't done a compare/contrast by precinct against 2016 GE PRES numbers to account for these variable, but still gonna throw out the raw numbers for peer review, since honestly I would have expected this to be a place which might have swung DEM in 2020...



   

So--- I decided to take a closer look at Norman Oklahoma, especially the heavily student precincts to see if there might have been a bit of an impact because of COVID-19 and fewer College Students in Town...

This is using the same precinct coding between '16 and '20....

2020 PRES GE:

Campus:

Trump:    608   (24.8%)              +47.1% Biden     (+7.9% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
Biden:  1,767   (71.9%)
Misc:        81    ( 3.3%)
Total:   2,456

Off-Campus Student:

Trump:     937  (33.7%)
Biden:   1,755  (63.2%)               +29.5% Biden    (+8.4% DEM Swing '16 >'20)
Misc:          86 ( 3.1%)
Total:    2,778


Here are the comparable 2016 GE PRES Results:

Campus:

Trump:     721     (25.3%)              +39.2% HRC
HRC  :   1,837     (64.5%)
MISC:      292     (10.2%)
Total:     2,850

Off-Campus Student:

Trump:    944  (34.7%)
HRC:     1,517 (55.8%)               +21.1% HRC
Misc:       256    (9.4%)
Total:    2,717

I can calculate the non heavily Student Precincts if anyone is interested as well... but wanted to at least look at the College student numbers in a campus which didn't shut down as much as many other parts of the Country.

[NOVA Green]

PAC-12 North: Oregon State University:

Corvallis gets tricky because there are so many college students, including Grad students within the City that "off-campus" precincts get a bit murky, but I will again attempt to mirror my '16 precinct coding for '20 GE election purposes.

Likely there would have been more voters in the City considering AVR through OR-DMV, but COVID did shift a bunch of stuff remotely so fewer college kids in town (Under-grads) = less of an increase in voters than what we experienced in most other parts of OR between '16 and '20 GE PRES.

Corvallis, Oregon:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:     4,994   (17.2%)
Biden:    22,878   (78.8%)       (+61.6% Biden)     +9.9% DEM Swing '16>'20
Misc:        1,181   ( 4.1%)   
TOTAL:   29,053

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:     5,021   (17.8%)
HRC:      19,588   (69.5%)       (+51.7% Biden)
Misc:        3,595   (12.7%)   
TOTAL:   28,204

[NOVA Green]

PAC-12 North: Oregon State University:

Corvallis gets tricky because there are so many college students, including Grad students within the City that "off-campus" precincts get a bit murky, but I will again attempt to mirror my '16 precinct coding for '20 GE election purposes.

Likely there would have been more voters in the City considering AVR through OR-DMV, but COVID did shift a bunch of stuff remotely so fewer college kids in town (Under-grads) = less of an increase in voters than what we experienced in most other parts of OR between '16 and '20 GE PRES.

Corvallis, Oregon:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:     4,994   (17.2%)
Biden:    22,878   (78.8%)       (+61.6% Biden)     +9.9% DEM Swing '16>'20
Misc:        1,181   ( 4.1%)   
TOTAL:   29,053

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:     5,021   (17.8%)
HRC:      19,588   (69.5%)       (+51.7% Biden)
Misc:        3,595   (12.7%)   
TOTAL:   28,204

The only precinct in Corvallis which I coded as an "On-Campus" precinct was Benton County Precinct #4, which contains not only the massive Tower Blocks of the Campus Dorms, but also includes some Graduate Student housing and Married student Housing South of Harrison, but also grabs some heavily student off-campus apartments South of Western Blvd.

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:        182  (13.4%)
Biden:      1,118  (82.4%)       (+69.0% Biden)     +15.0% DEM Swing '16>'20
Misc:            56   ( 4.1%)   
TOTAL:     1,356

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:       419  (16.7%)
HRC:       1,772  (70.7%)       (+54.0% Biden)   
Misc:          316  (12.6%)   
TOTAL:     2,507

I do not currently feel comfortable yet coding the "off-campus" heavily student precincts in Corvallis Oregon, since I want to ensure that I am using the same assessment when it comes to % of voters of a certain age range, etc...

Still, 1,200 less total votes between '16 and '20 in the most heavily Student Precinct in Corvallis tells a story about how COVID-19 has shifted voting patterns dramatically, even in College Precincts...

[NOVA Green]

Lubbock, Texas (Texas Tech University) BIG 12 Conference

Personal disclosure... had an extremely close relative who completed a Graduate Degree from Texas Tech, so not playing games with the City Precinct Results.

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:    58,316  (61.4%)       +24.4% Trump     (+7.6% DEM SWING)
Biden:     35,120  (37.0%)
Misc:        1,598  (  1.7%)
TOTAL:    95,034

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:    50,556  (63.1%)       +32.0% Trump
HRC:       24,900  (31.1%)
Misc:        4,656  (  5.8%)
TOTAL:    80,112

Texas Tech Dorm Vote:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:     710  (45.3%)       +8.2% Biden    (+19.8% DEM SWING)
Biden:      839  (53.5%)
Misc:         20    (1.3%)
TOTAL:    1,569

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:    712 (50.9%)       +10.6% Trump
HRC:       564 (40.3%)
Misc:       124 (8.9%)
TOTAL:    1,400

Texas Tech Off-Campus Vote:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:    1,620  (38.9%)       +20.1% Biden    (+17.7% DEM SWING)
Biden:     2,457  (59.0%)
Misc:           86   (2.1%)
TOTAL:    4,163

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:    1,332 (44.2%)       +2.4% HRC
HRC:       1,402 (46.6%)
Misc:          277 (9.2%)
TOTAL:    3,011


Here is the current precinct map of the City of Lubbock:

I double checked against my 2016 precinct coding numbers, so unless I am missing something???

[NOVA Green]

Waco, Texas (Baylor University) BIG 12 Conference:

City Precincts only:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:    16,588  (46.0%)       +8.0% TBiden     (+4.9% DEM SWING)
Biden:     18,743  (52.0%)
Misc:           730   (2.0%)
TOTAL:     36,061

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:    13,319  (45,1%)       +3.1% HRC
HRC:       14,251  (48.2%)
Misc:        1,984  (  5.8%)
TOTAL:    29,554

Baylor Dorm Vote:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:      637   (37.1%)       +22.4% Biden    (+2.7% DEM SWING)
Biden:     1,021  (59.5%)
Misc:           58    (3.4%)
TOTAL:    1,716

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:    421 (32.0%)       +19.7% HRC
HRC:       681 (51.7%)
Misc:       214 (16.3%)
TOTAL:    1,316

Baylor Off-Campus Vote:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:      342   (33.0%)       +30.9% Biden    (+5.3% DEM SWING)
Biden:       661   (63.9%)
Misc:           32   (3.1%)
TOTAL:    1,035

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:    259 (31.1%)           +25.6% HRC
HRC:       473 (56.7%)
Misc:       102 (12.2%)
TOTAL:    834

Waco Texas is much more than just Baylor University, so I happened to have coded a few precincts in Waco back in '16 as heavily African-American and heavily Latino...

Waco, Texas African-American Precincts:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:        196   (8.2%)       +81.9% Biden    (+2.3% PUB SWING)
Biden:      2,157   (90.1%)
Misc:            40    (1.7%)
TOTAL:     2,393

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:       154 (6.9%)           +84.2% HRC
HRC:       2,028 (91.1%)
Misc:           43 (1.9%)
TOTAL:     2,225

Waco, Texas Latino-American Precincts:

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:        733   (31.6%)       +35.1% Biden    (+2.9% PUB SWING)
Biden:      1,548   (66.7%)
Misc:            40    (1.7%)
TOTAL:     2,321

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:       515 (27.9%)           +38.0% HRC
HRC:       1,216 (65.9%)
Misc:           113 (6.1%)
TOTAL:     1,844

[Crumpets]

So if I'm reading that right, my alma mater (UW) is tied for third lowest Trump voteshare with Amherst, behind only Berkeley and Northwestern? Nice.

[NOVA Green]

Salt Lake City: University of Utah- PAC-12 South

City Precincts only:

2020 GE PRES:

Biden:    72,923  (76.3%)       +56.6% Biden     (+6.8% DEM SWING)
Trump:   18,783  (19.7%)
Misc:        3,825  (4.0%)
TOTAL:    95,531


2016 GE PRES:

HRC:      50,852    (66.2%)       +49.8% HRC
Trump:   12,567    (16.4%)
Misc:      13,375    (17.4%)
TOTAL:   76,794

I will need to follow up a bit later with University and Off-Campus precinct numbers to match my 2016 data sets....

Stay Tuned...

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12 (South) Conference: University of Arizona- Tucson, Arizona:

Tucson, Arizona 2020:



Tucson, Arizona 2016:



City Precinct Swings:           '16 > '20:     +4.6% D
Split-City Precinct Swings     '16 > '20:     +4.2% D

Now, let's look at student precincts around the University of Arizona, using the same coding that I did in 2016 (Since precinct lines have not changed).

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5890266#msg5890266

1.) University of Arizona- Dorm Vote:

2020:

Biden:   1,442    (78.2%)             (+58.9% D)      +0.7% D Swing ('16>'20)
Trump:    355     (19.3%)
Total:    1,844


2016:

HRC:      896     (74.2%)             (+58.2% D)
Trump:   193     (16.0%)
Total:     1,207

1.) University of Arizona- Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

2020:

Biden:   4,277    (82.3%)             (+66.6% D)      +6.6% D Swing ('16>'20)
Trump:    815     (15.7%)
Total:    5,199


2016:

HRC:     2,867     (75.5%)            (+60.0% D)
Trump:     589     (15.5%)
Total:    3,796

So--- The Dorms and the overwhelmingly Undergrad Student Precincts at the University of Arizona appear to have increased their total votes to 7,043 in 2020 from 5,003 in 2016.

DEMs appear to have added a net +1,568 Total Votes over Trump between '16 and '20 just from the Dorm and two Campus "Ghetto" precincts alone in AZ (Which is actually something like 12% of Biden's Statewide margin in AZ alone).

(Although the % swings might appear to be disappointing for some).

As I have previously Stated elsewhere, just like in business I would frequently exchange lower margins, in exchange for higher Total Net profits (Raw Votes).

[NOVA Green]

SEC- West--- Texas A & M----

College Station, Texas:

2020:

Biden:   18,098   (44.8%)       (+7.5% Trump)      +12.0% Biden Swing
Trump:  21,142   (52.3%)
Misc:      1,169    ( 2.9%)
Total:    40,409                      + 27.8% increase in Turnout 2016 > 2020.

2016:

HRC:     11,233   (35.5%)       (+19.5% Trump)
Trump:  17,384   (55.0%)
Misc:       3,004   (9.5%)
Total:    31,621

Precinct #74 Appears to be a 100% Dorm Precinct at Texas A&M:

2020:

Biden:       128   (65.7%)       (+34.4% Biden)      +5.4% Biden Swing
Trump:        61   (31.3%)
Misc:            6    (3.1%)
Total:         195                     + 10.8% increase in Turnout 2016 > 2020.

2016:

HRC:        108   (61.4%)       (+29.0% Biden)
Trump:       57   (32.4%)
Misc:          11   (6.3%)
Total:        176

Precinct #49 looks like a Dorm Precinct at Texas A&M:

2020:

Biden:        146  (73.0%)       (+48.5% Biden)      +33.0% Biden Swing
Trump:        49   (24.5%)
Misc:            5    (2.5%)
Total:         200                     + 40.8.8% increase in Turnout 2016 > 2020.

2016:

HRC:          76  (53.5%)       (+15.5% Biden)
Trump:       54   (38.0%)
Misc:          12   (8.5%)
Total:        142

I will follow up shortly with "Off-Campus" Student precincts at College Station, and potentially even dipping into Bryan, Texas....

[Sailor Haumea]

Nicolas Joyner calculated the presidential results for Johnson City, TN:

Trump: 16288 (56.74%)
Biden: 11781 (41.04%)
Other: 638 (2.22%)

[Sailor Haumea]

I talked with a resident of Oxford, MS on Twitter and the county precincts are such a mess that it's impossible to get precise numbers. The precincts primarily in the city voted 2,499 to 2,300 for Biden, but that excludes the precinct that includes the historical district...but also a lot of rural territory. Including that brings you up to 4,895 to 4,832 in favor of Biden. The precincts are so badly drawn that I think it's best to just say that Biden DID win the city, but it's impossible to get exact numbers.

[NOVA Green]

SEC-West- Tuscaloosa, Alabama

This was a bit of a challenge for several reasons:

1.) I did not have a current precinct map to work off of.

2.) Some of the precinct voting locations changed between 2016 and 2020.

3.) There are possibly some split- precincts at work.

4.) Once again in Alabama we see Absentee & Provisional ballots not redistributed to the voting precincts, but instead thrown into a lump county basket.

That being said, I did not want to neglect the home of the Crimson Tide, and plus as I was already doing some work on Alabama, it seemed logical to continue, regardless of the inherent frustrations involved.

Let's start with a precinct map of Tuscaloosa County, which I had to "reverse engineer" from 2016.



Now let's look at a map of where the City Limits are located:



Here are the precincts which I coded as either City or Split Precincts. After trying to review these against City Boundaries, I have excluded precinct #24 from the City numbers as the majority of the population appears to be in unincorporated areas around Holt. The other split-precincts appear to have a significant majority of the POP within City Limits.



Tuscaloosa City 2020 GE PRES
26.8% of County Vote Share:       -7.2% 2016 > 2020

Biden:    14,988      (62.1%)        +26.0% Biden        (+1.4% Trump Swing)
Trump:     8,718      (36.1%)
Misc:          429       ( 1.8%)
Total:     24,135                          -14.1% Decrease 2016 > 2020

Tuscaloosa County (Non City) 2020 GE PRES
58.7% of County Vote Share:     -3.8% 2016 to 2020

Biden:   13,572       (25.6%)           +47.4% Trump     (+2.6% Trump Swing)
Trump:  38,649       (73.0%)
Misc:         720        ( 1.4%) 
Total:    52,941                              +2.3% 2016 > 2020

Absentee / Provisional 2020 GE PRES
14.5% of County Vote Share:        +11.0% 2016 > 2020

Biden:         9,205     (70.3%)          +41.7% Biden     (+59.3% Biden Swing '16>'20)
Trump:        3,750     (28.6%)
Misc:             141      (1.1%)
Total:        13,096                             +357.1% Increase 2016 to 2020                         


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Tuscaloosa City 2016 GE PRES
34.0% of County Vote Share:

HRC:       17,224     (61.3%)        +27.4% HRC
Trump:     9,527      (33.9%)
Misc:        1,357      ( 4.8%)
Total:      28,108   

Tuscaloosa County (Non City) 2016 GE PRES
62.5% of County Vote Share:

HRC:     13,419      (25.9%)           +44.8% Trump
Trump:  36,572      (70.7%)
Misc:      1,736       ( 3.4%) 
Total:    51,727

Absentee / Provisional 2016 GE PRES
3.5% of County Vote Share:

HRC:          1,119     (39.1%)          +17.6% Trump
Trump:       1,624     (56.7%)
Misc:             122      (4.3%)
Total:         2,865

How to attempt to break down the Absentee / Provisional Vote in 2020?

If we assign the 2020 Absentee / Provisional votes by the 2016 City / County / Other distribution:

Tuscaloosa would have 34.0% of County Votes in 2020= 30,658 TVs

This would add an further 2,550 votes to the City of Tuscaloosa...

If we were to uniformly assign % breakdown by City / County:

Tuscaloosa City:

Biden: + 1,793         (16,781)-   62.9%        +27.5% Biden    (+0.1% Biden Swing). 
Trump: +  729          ( 9,447)-    35.4%
Misc:    +    28          (   457)
 
Naturally it is extremely improbable that Tuscaloosa City vs Rest of County % Votes broke down uniformly and DEM % were likely much higher in the City than in the rest of County, which is pretty overwhelmingly Republican, outside of a couple small DEM precincts in Northport, plus Tuscaloosa split-precinct #24 by Holt Uninc Areas.

The frustrating part of the Unknown is that between 2016 and 2020, there were an additional 7,472 Voters (+9.0% increase from 2016 TVs), but we simultaneously had roughly a +10k increase in Absentee / Provisional Ballots not coded by precinct!

Where did these votes come from?

Still, we do have at least a few data points.

Now let's look at the 2016 and 2020 GE PRES Results with Swings, and also throw in the % Vote Change '16 to '20 to account for the dramatic increase in votes not assigned by precinct:

 

What does this all mean?

1.) It is patently clear that undergrad students at the University of Alabama swung hard Biden in 2020. Dorm Vote= Precinct #27

+18.0% DEM Swing '16 > '20.

2.) It also appears that "off-campus" student voters also swung hard Biden, looking at precincts # 28, 39, & 40.

3.) It starts to get questionable regarding Alabama African-American Swings towards Trump looking at Precincts # 36 & 37, which are part of the historical "Black Neighborhoods of Tuscaloosa"...

Miniscule swings of "same day votes", while meanwhile unknown % numbers of Absentee & Provo Ballots.

4.) Precinct # 15 stands out a bit, as it is not only the most Republican precinct in the City, but also overwhelmingly Anglo with an MHI of something like $128k/Yr, where there appears to have been a swing towards Trump, and also a significant increase in "same day" precinct votes between '16 and '20.

Went to a family wedding in that precinct way back in the mid 2010s, so it's possible that the "posh part of town" had some increase in pop '16 > '20, which might explain those variables, or could possibly be something more like Montgomery County TX, where the wealthy white Pub's liked Trump and their tax cuts too...

IDK.... especially with such a huge % of votes not assigned by precinct in 2020.


   

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to expand it to all Division I cities to match the Division II cities thread?