OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Orwell]

Pick your own adventure spin

Wait he’s blaming Ryan for a child’s rape? Wow I feel like that’s pretty dirty even for the current polarized environment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't watch these debates really they don't talk about Affordable Housing

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't know if this race is actually going to be competitive or not, given what we all know about the awful quality of Ohio polling in recent cycles, but I am at least glad that Ryan is the Democratic candidate here and that he is putting in the kind of effort we can be proud of.

[Yoda]

"If you had done your job she would never have been raped in the first place"

wtf did I just read? Is Vance saying once he's a senator and - one would assume - starts "doing his job", that all rapes in the state of Ohio are going to end?

[7,052,770]

So Republicans are still all in on the myth that all undocumented immigrants walk across the border and a wall would stop them?

[Calthrina950]

There have been diametrically opposed responses to this debate. Predictably, Democrats are singing Ryan's praises and denouncing Vance, and Republicans are singing Vance's praises and denouncing Ryan. That's why this debate won't have much of an effect upon the race.

[Bismarck]

There have been diametrically opposed responses to this debate. Predictably, Democrats are singing Ryan's praises and denouncing Vance, and Republicans are singing Vance's praises and denouncing Ryan. That's why this debate won't have much of an effect upon the race.

Both of them actually performed pretty well I thought.

[Calthrina950]

There have been diametrically opposed responses to this debate. Predictably, Democrats are singing Ryan's praises and denouncing Vance, and Republicans are singing Vance's praises and denouncing Ryan. That's why this debate won't have much of an effect upon the race.

Both of them actually performed pretty well I thought.

That was largely my impression as well, although I would give Vance the edge in terms of who won the debate.

[Bismarck]

There have been diametrically opposed responses to this debate. Predictably, Democrats are singing Ryan's praises and denouncing Vance, and Republicans are singing Vance's praises and denouncing Ryan. That's why this debate won't have much of an effect upon the race.

Both of them actually performed pretty well I thought.

That was largely my impression as well, although I would give Vance the edge in terms of who won the debate.

Yeah I would agree. I don’t think it will change the race substantially.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If there's one thing that restrains any optimism I may have for this race, it is the relative competence of the Ohio Republican Party. They know how to win as much as the Florida Democratic Party knows how to lose.

I mean, they lost to Sherrod Brown in 2018. They're likely to beat him in 2024, admittedly. But I think a better analogy is the Florida Republicans, who organize like there's an election every week.

Back to this race, while Vance's responses are horrific, they're not going to cost him politically. Nobody who supported abortion rights or gay marriage was ever going to vote for Vance. He'll still win comfortably because it's Ohio and we can't have nice things.

Most Ohioans support both, possibly over 60%. So you're saying Ryan is going to win a landslide?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These Debates don't talk about Affordable Housing thats why I don't watch these and if Vance gets in he's not gonna help poor people people are gonna see that cutting spending has nothing to do with 8 percent inflation, it's still gonna be 8 percent inflation if Rs takeover that's why I never watch these debates as it looks now it's an RH and we net WI and PA 52/48 solidify the blue wall Barnes and Fetterman win but DEMINGS, Ryan and Beasley loses but Beasley has the best chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a note plus 1 or 2 pts in a D state like Johnson and Drazen are doesn't mean it's Lean R Evers is tied with Rs Evers and Barnes beat Kleefisch and Walker last time, Sara Goldwitz would have been leading but it's only 1 pt and that is MOE, just like OH is 2 pts

[politicallefty]

If there's one thing that restrains any optimism I may have for this race, it is the relative competence of the Ohio Republican Party. They know how to win as much as the Florida Democratic Party knows how to lose.

Not really.  That used to be true from like 1994-2004, but they’re basically just a generic Trumpy state party at this point.  OTOH, the Ohio Democratic Party has been a dumpster fire for decades.

I would generally say the Ohio Democratic Party is more competent than the Florida Democratic Party. Ted Strickland almost pulled off reelection in a hideous environment with bad approvals. I suppose the Ohio Republican Party is essentially running off the institution that is Mike DeWine. He definitely appears more moderate than he lets on. On the other hand, I think he was like the first or second governor to close schools in spring of 2020.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1579622218388344832

He needs to make that into an ad ASAP.

[LostInOhio]

If Trump had won in 2020 I would definitely be pretty bullish on Ryan’s chances here

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah if this was a Trump midterm I think Ryan would win this.

Alas it isn’t and he won’t. Ryan might keep it respectable (between 3-6)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Ryan is funny, at the very least he's not the boring grey democratic centrist. In a different universe, he would be as popular as Al Franken was before he got metood.

Vance however - objectively - seems - contrary to what one would expect - one of the better recruits of this cycle (which arguably isn't saying much, because a lot of recruits are terrible). It's just Ryan probably is the best candidate the Democrats recruited.

I don't think Vance's campaign is bad, but what I do think might possibly be the case, is that even he is too extreme for Ohio. Sure, it isn't a purple state anymore but it ain't Arkansas or North Dakota you're running in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah if this was a Trump midterm I think Ryan would win this.

Alas it isn’t and he won’t. Ryan might keep it respectable (between 3-6)

Lol it's 2 pts stop Dooming, the Ds are heavily invested in WI, PA, OH and NC still upsets do happen you said GA was gonna stay red it turned blue just wait you said Johnson is gonna win along with Snow Labrador, lol it's a 303 Map with wave insurance what does wave insurance mean in case we win not a sure bet, you keep saying the same thing in a Trump midterm it would be a pickup because in 2020 with Trump on ballots it was still a 303 map with TRUMP

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1579861924803923969

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1579861924803923969

Schrödinger's abortion

[kwabbit]

Both candidates did pretty well in the debate IMO. Vance is a better speaker than Ryan, but Ryan is better aligned with the electorate. Vance didn’t come across as that extreme. Even on abortion, his position wasn’t extreme enough to be easily turned into a soundbite.

[wbrocks67]

There have been diametrically opposed responses to this debate. Predictably, Democrats are singing Ryan's praises and denouncing Vance, and Republicans are singing Vance's praises and denouncing Ryan. That's why this debate won't have much of an effect upon the race.

Both of them actually performed pretty well I thought.

That was largely my impression as well, although I would give Vance the edge in terms of who won the debate.

Yeah I would agree. I don’t think it will change the race substantially.

Vance last night:
-came out against marriage equality act
-said the situation in Ukraine is not a security issue to us
-came out in favor of a national abortion ban
-insinuated women being raped is somehow Tim Ryan's fault

among other things. Not sure how he won it.

If you're going off of who was more "polished" then I don't think you're reading the OH electorate correctly. Not just that, but it's easy to be "polished" when you just sit and lie. Vance is essentially a coastal elite, it's not surprised he's a more "polished" public speaker than Vance. But that type of stuff is the least likely thing to matter in an "Ohio" debate. Maybe if this was Massachusetts or something...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

There have been diametrically opposed responses to this debate. Predictably, Democrats are singing Ryan's praises and denouncing Vance, and Republicans are singing Vance's praises and denouncing Ryan. That's why this debate won't have much of an effect upon the race.

Both of them actually performed pretty well I thought.

That was largely my impression as well, although I would give Vance the edge in terms of who won the debate.

Yeah I would agree. I don’t think it will change the race substantially.

Vance last night:
-came out against marriage equality act
-said the situation in Ukraine is not a security issue to us
-came out in favor of a national abortion ban
-insinuated women being raped is somehow Tim Ryan's fault

among other things. Not sure how he won it.

If you're going off of who was more "polished" then I don't think you're reading the OH electorate correctly. Not just that, but it's easy to be "polished" when you just sit and lie. Vance is essentially a coastal elite, it's not surprised he's a more "polished" public speaker than Vance. But that type of stuff is the least likely thing to matter in an "Ohio" debate. Maybe if this was Massachusetts or something...

The  Populism starter pack.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On the day that a jury socked Alex Jones for nearly $1 Billion in damages to the Sandy Hook families, a reminder:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1580292045742436352

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

JD Vance is a man who only ever displays the foremost political judgement. That's why when I put my pet frog in the Ohio River it suddenly started talking English and said Ryan wanted to ship jobs "from Youngstown to Yunnan" and changed its gender.

[Aurelius]

Honestly, if you look at Vance on paper he seems like a really solid + tier candidate:

- Veteran
- Successful in Business
- Great Biography
- Above Average Name Recognition

But when you put all this into practice... Vance is pretty terrible because he's just not likeable. No one wants to have a beer with JD Vance.

He's the particular type of later-in-life Catholic trad convert who reads First Things, dislikes fun, and probably thinks Americanism is a heresy. The kind of Catholicism that rubs a lot of Protestants and Nones the wrong way, and even some normie cradle Catholics. That's the core of his problem.