OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[wbrocks67]

Is Vance doing any campaigning? It feels like his presence is invisible with one month to go

[It’s so Joever]

Tim Ryan is going to win and his performance against a merely bad but not garbage tier candidate is going to be more impressive than Fetterman.

We should be talking about this race a lot more, but we aren't because people are only concerned about seat #50, when in reality, the minimum expectation should be 51-52 (GA and PA are strong D, AZ pretty strong Lean), or an outside shot at 53. It's clear 50 is not enough to matter, and it's difficult to see gains in 2024. They're going to need that cushion now - win or lose in 24.

Lol this will age poorly.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Tim Ryan is going to win and his performance against a merely bad but not garbage tier candidate is going to be more impressive than Fetterman.

We should be talking about this race a lot more, but we aren't because people are only concerned about seat #50, when in reality, the minimum expectation should be 51-52 (GA and PA are strong D, AZ pretty strong Lean), or an outside shot at 53. It's clear 50 is not enough to matter, and it's difficult to see gains in 2024. They're going to need that cushion now - win or lose in 24.

Lol this will age poorly.

Maybe it will. Polling, candidate quality, and environment/Biden approval ratings seem to indicate otherwise. I haven't followed any of the races much, but that ad definitely excited me and I'm sure it will resonate with the apathetic and distrustful.

I think the intentionally pessimistic groupthink because muh conventional wisdom about out-party midterms and not wanting to get hopes too high/not trusting the voters of this country doesn't have any logical basis if you look at the facts. But a lot of outcomes could happen.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1578824983744499712

[Brittain33]

Note Ryan’s son prominently wearing a cross. NGL, if the tables were turned I’d say they’re intentionally drawing a contrast with Vance’s South Asian wife (who may be Christian, I don’t know) who he put in ads to soften him image. I don’t remember the Vances showing this kind of affection, either.

[Brittain33]

I rewatched the Vance ad. Short clip with his full family, short clip with a little kid, but mostly it’s his wife speaking over photos from Vance’s life. I suspect that like Masters, Vance can’t do relatable like Ryan.

[windjammer]

I know this is semantic but I wouldn't consider Tim Ryan as an upset anymore: the polls are showing clearly he's leading after all.

I don't consider the polls being correct as a upset either

[MillennialModerate]

The amount of people in this thread actually convincing themselves Ryan is going to win is mind numbing. These are polarizing times where swing voters are rare and everyone just supports their tribe - blue tribe or red tribe. This is no different at all.

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

[windjammer]

The amount of people in this thread actually convincing themselves Ryan is going to win is mind numbing. These are polarizing times where swing voters are rare and everyone just supports their tribe - blue tribe or red tribe. This is no different at all. In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to win in a R+2 to R+9 state

I m not saying he's going to win. I'm saying this wouldn't be surprising if he does.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The amount of people in this thread actually convincing themselves Ryan is going to win is mind numbing. These are polarizing times where swing voters are rare and everyone just supports their tribe - blue tribe or red tribe. This is no different at all.

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

It's not an R plus 4 yr the GCB has it Ds plus 5 at any rate we won OH, MO and FL SEN races in 2012 and we were down 241 seats in the H stop declaring winners until the polls close

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to just wait till Eday not declaring winners just like same Doomers declared Bares dead after the Debate he isnt dead he is tied

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jacobfhsmith/status/1579471021467635714

[Sir Mohamed]

I know this is semantic but I wouldn't consider Tim Ryan as an upset anymore: the polls are showing clearly he's leading after all.

I don't consider the polls being correct as a upset either

I would still consider it a major upset since polls have a track record of being off in OH over recent cycles. They constantly underestimated GOP support or just barely nailed the Dem vote share. Additionally, we're talking about a Trump +8 state in a national environment that's not as blue as 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're at 52)45 WI, PA, GA, AZ, NH NV with Early vote goes D and OH, NC are Tossups and ileither FL or UT goes D I know Sir Muhammad thinks it's not that way but all those states except for AZ, PA and NH are not gonna be called even TX and fL when the polls close and the only thing that's gonna be called is the H all the Rs need is 5 net seats and they will call the control of the H not the number of seats and they won't have supermajority we know we won IH, Mzo and FL in a D plus 4 Eday in 2012 and were down Supermajority status 241 seats in the H 23 away from Majority so a 55/46 S and an R H is not unheard of

There are always upsets

2008 Jim Martin went to a Runoff with Chambliss Chambliss won the Runoff Obama Pac and Act blue didn't really get running until 2012/14
2010 Bennet was supposed to lose to Ken Buck
2012 Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson
2014 Bill Walker won AK
2018 KS GOV won by Kelly
2019 KY Gov goes D
2020 GA Warnock was supposed to win not Ossoff Rs was supposed to have a 51/49 Senate

[MT Treasurer]

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

Elections are about actual people, not numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

.we also won OH in 2018 after OH went 20 pts to Rob Portman  in 2016, if that was the case Renacci was supposed to beat Brown he didn't

[It’s so Joever]

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

Elections are about actual people, not numbers.

You of all people are saying this? Wow maybe Ryan will win!

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/jacobfhsmith/status/1579471021467635714

2020 NBC exit polls (this poll):

46% under age 50 (48%). Note this is even less realistic when considering it’s a midterm

39% R / 31%D / 30%I (37% R / 33%D / 26% I / 4.5% not sure). Why would the share of republicans drop in a midterm?

40% conservative / 21% liberal / 39% moderate (37% conservative / 21% liberal / 37% moderate / 5% not sure)

32% white evangelical Christians (26%)

34% under 50k income (36% under 40k income)

Not to mention that the issues don’t track with the recent student debt polls in the state or that NBC had 44% saying abortion should generally be illegal in 2020. Also, conducted by college students?

[Pollster]

2020 NBC exit polls (this poll):

46% under age 50 (48%). Note this is even less realistic when considering it’s a midterm

39% R / 31%D / 30%I (37% R / 33%D / 26% I / 4.5% not sure). Why would the share of republicans drop in a midterm?

40% conservative / 21% liberal / 39% moderate (37% conservative / 21% liberal / 37% moderate / 5% not sure)

32% white evangelical Christians (26%)

34% under 50k income (36% under 40k income)

Not to mention that the issues don’t track with the recent student debt polls in the state or that NBC had 44% saying abortion should generally be illegal in 2020. Also, conducted by college students?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

[wbrocks67]

Also, given DeWine's +17 and Whaley's (surprising) -11 here, this isn't some super Dem poll lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeWine is up 6 not up 20 pts the last Civitas poll had it 45/39 and that's the same as Whitmer being up 53/47 that's why Ryan is gonna win DeWine is gonna underpoll and win by 6 not 20

Wolf and Casey and Whitmer won by 6/9 pts there is no way none of these rust belt states are gonna be more than 10 even Young and Grassley are only gonna win by 9 and so is Reynolds she isn't gonna win by 18

[Brittain33]

Share of Republicans could drop in a midterm because a) educated voters, who are high propensity, are moving parties and b) Trump was an extraordinary draw in 2016 and 2020. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s possible. And I haven’t mentioned Dobbs.

[Unelectable Bystander]

2020 NBC exit polls (this poll):

46% under age 50 (48%). Note this is even less realistic when considering it’s a midterm

39% R / 31%D / 30%I (37% R / 33%D / 26% I / 4.5% not sure). Why would the share of republicans drop in a midterm?

40% conservative / 21% liberal / 39% moderate (37% conservative / 21% liberal / 37% moderate / 5% not sure)

32% white evangelical Christians (26%)

34% under 50k income (36% under 40k income)

Not to mention that the issues don’t track with the recent student debt polls in the state or that NBC had 44% saying abortion should generally be illegal in 2020. Also, conducted by college students?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

I am aware of the CLT definition but can you explain it’s applicability here? I’m assuming you mean that certain traits of a sample can be biased while the sample is fine as a whole. But isn’t the whole point of weighting a sample to account for the fact that you think your original sample is inaccurate? I’m not sure that you can look at those numbers from the weighted sample and say they will resemble the Ohio electorate with a straight face.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Share of Republicans could drop in a midterm because a) educated voters, who are high propensity, are moving parties and b) Trump was an extraordinary draw in 2016 and 2020. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s possible. And I haven’t mentioned Dobbs.

I would buy that but the college educated share isn’t any higher, the white share isn’t any higher, and the electorate is supposedly much poorer.

[Pollster]

2020 NBC exit polls (this poll):

46% under age 50 (48%). Note this is even less realistic when considering it’s a midterm

39% R / 31%D / 30%I (37% R / 33%D / 26% I / 4.5% not sure). Why would the share of republicans drop in a midterm?

40% conservative / 21% liberal / 39% moderate (37% conservative / 21% liberal / 37% moderate / 5% not sure)

32% white evangelical Christians (26%)

34% under 50k income (36% under 40k income)

Not to mention that the issues don’t track with the recent student debt polls in the state or that NBC had 44% saying abortion should generally be illegal in 2020. Also, conducted by college students?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

I am aware of the CLT definition but can you explain it’s applicability here? I’m assuming you mean that certain traits of a sample can be biased while the sample is fine as a whole. But isn’t the whole point of weighting a sample to account for the fact that you think your original sample is inaccurate? I’m not sure that you can look at those numbers from the weighted sample and say they will resemble the Ohio electorate with a straight face.

Weighting is about representation, not measurement. The central limit theorem applies to both. To take party ID as an example, you could credibly argue self-ID Republicans are underrepresented here based on the 2020 exit poll. The central limit theorem would posit that, assuming the sample is not structurally biased, this underrepresentation would be corrected by, potentially, the self-ID independent subsample leaning more Republican than it possibly should. This is a very clean example, and doesn't take into account intersection with other demographics that could also have a measurement error that potentially corrects a representation error, or vice versa. And of course the margin of error complicates all of this as well. This is why "unskewing" polls is a fool's exercise and generally discouraged and why most internal pollsters use subsamples only directionally.