OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sure Racism this open has gotta hurt him.
https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/1433786223596871685

People are correct, open racism probably only helps him in a Republican primary in Ohio. At least he got ratioed and lol: https://twitter.com/CleverTitleTK/status/1433838194215297127?s=20

That's among the worst ratios I have ever seen. 10-to-1. Ouch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh Josh.....
https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1439782773963857921?s=20

Dumb nonsense like this deserves mockery for all it is worth, even if it's likely quite effective.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is so dumb

I really dislike Vance's campaign (at this point, I'm probably Gibbons > Dolan > Timken > Mandel > Ryan > Vance), but he has a point here. Certain states really are bizarrely slow in counting the votes, even compared to many quite poor countries.

California and New York are by far the worst offenders.

It would be good for America, as a democracy, if we counted mail-in ballots before all others.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok now I kind of miss having a candidate going on lunatic screeds about Bitcoin.

"A candidate going on lunatic screeds about Bitcoin"
you couldn't come up with a better epitomizing of 2022 if you tried.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ryan had a narrow but real path before.
Now it's becoming wider. Vance isn't helping himself with things like this...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

Data from 2009 says there are 49,000 Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio (fifth largest such tally in the country). While that could decide a close election, I doubt that it is as singularly important that Ukraine could swing the result. The majority of voters who would care about it probably have little to no Ukrainian blood to speak of, given how few Ukrainian-Americans there are. This isn't even getting into Russian-Americans...though the same disclaimers you put out with Ukrainians also apply to Russians. I don't think there's much polling or research about what Russian-Americans think of the "special military operation", actually, but there are almost certainly more Russian-Americans than Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

Data from 2009 says there are 49,000 Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio (fifth largest such tally in the country) ... This isn't even getting into Russian-Americans...

Well, I linked much better data from 2022 showing that Ohio is clearly not in the top five and the original absurd claim was that it was #1.

As far as Russian ethnics go, I would actually guess they feel far less intensely about this since: (a) many more identify with the opposition in Russia for various reasons, (b) they are far more assimilated given historical immigration patterns, (c) Russia is the invading country, which almost always stokes less intense feelings in war.

The people this will actually rally are American nationalists, i.e., Vance's base.

Perhaps the original claim was in percentage terms, not pure numbers. And Ohio does seem to be more Ukrainian than the country as a whole, though that's not saying too much. In any case, I agree that it would rally Vance-style American nationalists, a key segment of his base, insofar as it has impact on the race at all (it could still influence other demos, of course).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

JD Vance is a man who only ever displays the foremost political judgement. That's why when I put my pet frog in the Ohio River it suddenly started talking English and said Ryan wanted to ship jobs "from Youngstown to Yunnan" and changed its gender.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ironic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/abughazalehkat/status/1588324471399624705

This is the "ISIS fighters crossing the border from Mexico to harm Americans" of 2022.
(Cotton used that in an ad in 2014)