Special Election megathread (6/25: CO-4)

[Atlas Force]

Always interesting (though hardly surprising) that American voters in special congressional elections act completely differently than, say, British voters do in parliamentary by-elections.

Wdym

[ajc0918]

Mahoning is only showing a 4% shift to Dems. The worst among any county. I assume TV ads and the outspending impacted it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone remember the KS-04 special in 2017?
This is what it felt like.

And i remember all the seats that were won after it

T'was glorious.

[Ferguson97]

So, what lessons should we take from this result?

It means nothing for the presidential election, but it's further confirmation that a change in coalitions benefits the Democrats in low-turnout specials.

[Horus]

Mahoning is only showing a 4% shift to Dems. The worst among any county. I assume TV ads and the outspending impacted it.

Rulli also owns two grocery stores in the area that are extremely popular. Everyone in the Youngstown metro recognizes his last name.

[One Term Floridian]

Mahoning is only showing a 4% shift to Dems. The worst among any county. I assume TV ads and the outspending impacted it.

Mahoning really let us down here

[soundchaser]

Same here, though I was bummed out that we couldn't topple tackle Gianforte in the Montana special or generals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mahoning is only showing a 4% shift to Dems. The worst among any county. I assume TV ads and the outspending impacted it.

Rulli also owns two grocery stores in the area that are extremely popular. Everyone in the Youngstown metro recognizes his last name.

Yeah Rulli was very popular in the area that's very critical if Ds ever want to win here.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Mahoning is only showing a 4% shift to Dems. The worst among any county. I assume TV ads and the outspending impacted it.

It would be INSANE if even with Dems overperforming so much they lost Mahoning

[ProgressiveModerate]

Did the Independent candidate really get 0 votes? That’s what it says on NYT right now

[ajc0918]

I feel like this might be a bit over a 10% margin. Maybe under 12% though.

[Ferguson97]

Did the Independent candidate really get 0 votes? That’s what it says on NYT right now

That's gotta be wrong, because I'd assume he'd at least vote for himself lmao

[MaxQue]

Did the Independent candidate really get 0 votes? That’s what it says on NYT right now

He's a write-in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm thinking it's probably high single digits but for that to happen Kripchak probably can't afford to do too poorly in Youngstown.

[kyc0705]

Always interesting (though hardly surprising) that American voters in special congressional elections act completely differently than, say, British voters do in parliamentary by-elections.

Wdym

British by-elections have a far more direct relationship with the popularity of the governing party than US congressional special elections generally do. The less popular they are, the worse they will do, and after a point the bottom can really fall out: the last by-elections before the House of Commons was dissolved saw 30+ point Tory seats easily falling to Labour.

Under similar voter behavior, you would not receive a massive overperformance for the Democrats with the national and local polling situations being what they are. But of course, there are many differences, among them being that this isn't a parliamentary system.

[Oryxslayer]

The Republican Candidate, Rulli, is apparently very known in Youngstown and the rest of the Mahoning region thanks to managing a local grocery chain (bearing his families name). Coalitions may end up a bit abnormal depending on how many people turn out....

Hey look this was prescient. The nominally most Dem friendly areas were more R-tilting relatively, and the most GOP friendly areas were more favorable to Dem swings.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1800699900620836952

[Mexican Wolf]

Kripchak ended up winning Mahoning by 14 votes.

[ajc0918]

With nearly all of the results in. The GOP wins by around 9%. Massive underperformance.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Kripchak ended up winning Mahoning by 14 votes.

LOL Mahoning is so cursed

[Roll Roons]

I... really got nothing. This is a truly unbelievable result.

If there is any district in the country that epitomizes Trump country, it's this one. A Republican only winning this seat by 9 points is a contender for the single craziest election result I've seen since 2016.

[Atlas Force]

Kripchak for Governor 2026?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I... really got nothing.

If there is any district in the country that epitomizes Trump country, it's this one. A Republican only winning this seat by 9 points is a contender for the single craziest election result I've seen since 2016.

I believe it. If anything, it just really proves true the theory that Trumpers only turn out to vote when Trump is on the ballot.

And of course, any region that realigned that quickly is going to have some downballot lag.

[Nyvin]

It doesn't help Republicans that polls show Biden improving when going from Registered voters to Likely voters. 

If this is a low turnout election year and it affects races in this manner then that's probably big trouble for the GOP.

[Tekken_Guy]

It doesn't help Republicans that polls show Biden improving when going from Registered voters to Likely voters. 

If this is a low turnout election year and it affects races in this manner then that's probably big trouble for the GOP.

Long term this is a problem if after this November, these Trump-only voters never turn out again.