Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Tekken_Guy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1336158608371773441

It would appear Frank Jackson, the mayor of Cleveland, may run for the seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

State Sen. Stephanie Kunze would be a good candidate here. She won re-election by about 100 votes as Trump was losing her district by double digits.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm fairly sure she holds Stivers' old State Senate seat.

Assuming she gets nominated, she will likely put OH-15 completely out of play, but her Senate seat is more likely than not to flip.

Well Ohio doesn’t have do special elections for the state legislature. They just nominate replacements. And the seat won’t be up until 2024 anyway. And it’s a redistricting cycle.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

Yes, and I am waiting for the January race to make more firm predictions.

I have a hard time deciding between 50, 51, and 52 Dem.. 53 D and 49 D are possible but very unlikely.

The HOD may be disproportionally awful for the GOP if 2025, 2027, or 2029 or Dem waves.

The State Senate is at least Lean D.  The scenario where it would flip would involve a Dem collapse in Hampton Roads/Richmond.  They are likely losing a seat in the mountains that was formerly gerrymandered to pick up college towns, but there is a new double digit Biden district in the Richmond suburbs for them. 

The HOD comes down to several outer NOVA Biden->Youngkin districts that were either narrowly won by Spanberger or narrowly lost by Wexton this year.  Getting to 50/50 looks fairly easy, but Dems need at least one downballot Republican NOVA seat for control.

Yea.. despite Luria's loss (which was to be expected to be honest).. I do not see a dem collapse occurring in Hampton Roads or Richmond area.

Democrats are holding up in those two regions better than you would have expected considering everything that has happened since the 2020 election. Every jurisdiction in Hampton Roads swung Dem in 2022 from 2021 even.

This. And Kiggans has a very tough fight ahead of her in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

Amo's probably the frontrunner for the Senate now, if Jack Reed decides to retire in 2026 in my opinion.

Magaziner?

[Tekken_Guy]

Amo's probably the frontrunner for the Senate now, if Jack Reed decides to retire in 2026 in my opinion.

I think Magaziner is aiming for that, but I could also seem them both running.

Feels like Raimondo or McKee both have higher profiles than either man.

Impressive performance for Amo, though; really came out of nowhere. I thought Regunberg had this one.

It's rare for cabinet secretaries to drop down to the Senate so I don't see Raimondo, and McKee may run again in 2026 and even if he didn't probably just retires given his age.

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Washington County is going to drop any minute now.

If Edwards isn't getting 30-35% there, and if Maloy is more than 2:1 over Hough, it's callable for Maloy.

How much would Maloy need to win on that batch alone?

[Tekken_Guy]

Maloy is definitely favored, as only 45% of the remaining vote is expected from Salt Lake and Davis Counties. And conservative candidates tend to overperform in late mail ballots.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/SchottHappens/status/1699497360559333662

Salt Lake County has approximately 8,000 ballots, while Davis County has around 2,500.

It’s not clear how many of those are Republican ballots in the CD2 race #utpol”

I expect nearly all of them are for the GOP congressional primary; because Riebe was uncontested the D primary wasn’t on the ballot. But by the looks of it, Washington County has nearly 6,000 more ballots left to count than previously thought, compared to 4,000 more ballots than expected in Salt Lake and around 1,500 FEWER in Davis. By my calculations, if that verifies, Salt Lake and Davis will make up less than 40% of the remaining vote, rather than around 45% like my estimation from the NY Times % estimates.

According to my calculations, Maloy would win by nearly 4 points if all ballots break the same way they currently do in each county. And that’s not taking into account late ballots typically trending more conservative or other rural counties also having more out than previously thought.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1699542331555520767

Maloy wins.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1699542331555520767

Maloy wins.

Wait so does SLC not have 8,000 left?

Not in UT-02.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1699555155782340630

Maloy will be a fairly generic R. It's not like we're talking about a Boebert clone.

Maloy is someone in the vein of Chris Stewart. Definitely to the right of Moore and Curtis but nowhere near as far-right as Owens.

[Tekken_Guy]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

[Tekken_Guy]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

Special elections don't really mean anything for Presidential races. Mike Garcia flipped CA-25 in 2020 but its not like that was a good indicator of what would happen between Trump and Biden.

It certainly previewed that 2020 Pres wasn't going to be a landslide, which was true. It also previewed the GOP's strong performance in the House of Representatives results and arguably their decent results in the Senate.

Also was a warning that the CA freshmen (Cox, Rouda, Cisneros) were in big trouble that November, and that Garcia himself would not be easy to beat in the rematch.

[Tekken_Guy]

Celeste Maloy has now beaten expectations three times in a row.

-Everyone said Hughes was going to win the convention. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Edwards was going to win the primary. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Riebe was going to overperform in the general. Maloy was the one who overperformed.