Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

In case anyone thought Democratic politicians are interested in learning any lessons from this. We’re losing 80% Hispanic districts and they’re blaming white supremacy…
[-tweet-]

I mean, we all know the endgame here is for the Democratic Party to start obsessing about racial differences within the broader "Hispanic" identity. White Hispanics are destined for the same relative treatment as Italians or Poles, which will be worse in absolute terms given how the hatred of whites has risen generally.

Worst 3,348th post ever.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I think November's fate is pretty much set in stone, and Democrats are by no means in a position to get their progressive agenda through in this decade. If you're a progressive, move on to things other than election-watching. Accelerationism is the only tool at our disposal. Then maybe people will start to wake up and Second Amendment leftists will be leading the charge.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I think November's fate is pretty much set in stone, and Democrats are by no means in a position to get their progressive agenda through in this decade. If you're a progressive, move on to things other than election-watching. Accelerationism is the only tool at our disposal. Then maybe people will start to wake up and Second Amendment leftists will be leading the charge.

please don’t say things like this jfc

[Kamala's side hoe]

The swing to Trump in Houston in Mexican-American neighborhoods, while not as large as in the RGV, was very large. In my mind, Democrats have much further to fall in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. You shouldn't view us as being "safe", you shouldn't write us off and treat us like your possession. There's no special issue that Democrats can use to appeal to Hispanics these days and, frankly, the way Democrats talk about race today actively alienates Hispanics!

Goodnight and good luck! P.S. you should be scared of diverse suburbs because those are suburbs that are lower middle class and poorer - this is ultimately a class issue.

Nobody is doing that? This is quite literally a made up concept that people use against Democrats when no one is treating Latinos/Hispanics as such?

Also, to the latter point in what you said, so the "way" Democrats talk about race is alienating but the way that the GOP has talked about race and in particular Latinos over the last 5-10 years isn't alienating? Come on now.

Jamaal Bowman's tweet is kind of an example of this. While it is true that the GOP is an implicitly Caucasian identitarian party at this point, attempting to tie every R electoral victory to "white supremacy" is a bit reductive and can come across as patronizing to many POC voters (ADOS or otherwise). I wouldn't be surprised if the more doctrinaire and Buzzfeed-y Ferguson97's, GP270watch's, jimmie's, and BRTD's of the Twitterverse have contributed to the rising "hatred of whites" AMB1996 mentioned lmao

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Not every POC group in America has the exact same relationship with whiteness and with White America. Lumping Black, Latino, Asian, mixed-race, indigenous, etc. voter blocs together as if we have some inherent solidarity with each other due to not being white doesn't make sense in an area that's dominated by one particular group, or where there are barely any non-Hispanic white people.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I think November's fate is pretty much set in stone, and Democrats are by no means in a position to get their progressive agenda through in this decade. If you're a progressive, move on to things other than election-watching. Accelerationism is the only tool at our disposal. Then maybe people will start to wake up and Second Amendment leftists will be leading the charge.

please don’t say things like this jfc

Why not? Jefferson was right. The tree of liberty is very dry and will only survive on the blood of tyrants.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mexican-Americans have created huge upward mobility for themselves over the past decade, in spite of having the lowest rates of educational attainment of any major American racial or ethnic group. In other words, they're becoming kulaks, who have never been big on left-leaning politics.

Mexican-Americans have attained a great deal of social mobility over the past century. It has been disguised by the fact that there have been new waves of Mexican immigrants, who start at the bottom. The communities with exclusively "old stock" Mexican immigrants like Pueblo in Colorado voted strongly for Democrats up until 2016. This is to say that your thesis is BS: there's no support for it and it is nothing more than the wet dream of Republicans.

Another way of putting this: Mexicans have achieved lots of social mobility in the US but they have always been working class or lower middle class at best as a demographic, even in more affluent areas like Downey in CA. Historically, this segment has leaned Democratic. What has changed? The class alignment of US politics isn't what it used to be, so Mexicans are shifting to the right and, on top of this, the special factor of immigration no longer benefits Democrats because immigration reform isn't on the agenda.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in McAllen, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Dallas and you can repeat that in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada."

You do realize that Mexicans do not only live in Brownsville but also in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and, basically, throughout Texas? Right now, it might appear that the "trade" is worthwhile but we are a rapidly growing demographic and Democrats have a lot to lose from writing us off - there's nothing preventing Mexican-Americans from giving Trump 60 or even 65 percent of the vote in Texas in 2024.

Not writing anyone off other than a marginal voter in the RGV who likes Trump. Is there evidence urban Hispanics are voting like RGV and other rural Hispanics? I don’t see people saying that any of those urban Hispanic districts are at risk like TX-34. And I can match Collin and Denton County with diverse suburbs all over the country if we want to extrapolate, too.

In a word: yes. The swing to Trump in Houston in Mexican-American neighborhoods, while not as large as in the RGV, was very large. In my mind, Democrats have much further to fall in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. You shouldn't view us as being "safe", you shouldn't write us off and treat us like your possession. There's no special issue that Democrats can use to appeal to Hispanics these days and, frankly, the way Democrats talk about race today actively alienates Hispanics!

Goodnight and good luck! P.S. you should be scared of diverse suburbs because those are suburbs that are lower middle class and poorer - this is ultimately a class issue.

Nobody is doing that? This is quite literally a made up concept that people use against Democrats when no one is treating Latinos/Hispanics as such?

Also, to the latter point in what you said, so the "way" Democrats talk about race is alienating but the way that the GOP has talked about race and in particular Latinos over the last 5-10 years isn't alienating? Come on now.

The liberal media hasn't covered this election, Democratic politicians aren't panicking over this election, Democrats didn't panic over massive losses sustained in 2020, they didn't prioritize immigration reform in 2021. Bluntly, in general, Democratic politicians and white liberals don't care about Hispanics. They don't care much about Asians either but there has been far more of a focus on "Asian hate" than any issue affecting Hispanics in this country.

Republicans were extremely alienating in 2016 and 2018 but they've dropped this rhetoric. Perversely, Democrats and, in particular, left-wing activists now sound much more offensive than Republicans. In the wake of Black Lives Matter, many actively scolded Latinos for being racist.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

RGV is just shifting right, no other explanations make sense. Not the end of the world. Better there than somewhere more vote rich.

What this post is actually saying: due to innumeracy, I have found a way to cope with the fact that my party is a loathed piece of excrement in every rural area where neither Blacks nor American Indians live.

Obviously it's not ideal, but parties can't really be popular everywhere in this day and age. Sometimes populations shift against you, it's just inevitable.

I don't really care if you feel this way but could you at least have the decency of changing your avatar? No socialist alive should endorse the proposition of trading support in Brownsville or Youngstown for support in Greenwich or Malibu - this is extremely perverse stuff.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in McAllen, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Dallas and you can repeat that in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada."

You do realize that Mexicans do not only live in Brownsville but also in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and, basically, throughout Texas? Right now, it might appear that the "trade" is worthwhile but we are a rapidly growing demographic and Democrats have a lot to lose from writing us off - there's nothing preventing Mexican-Americans from giving Trump 60 or even 65 percent of the vote in Texas in 2024.

Not writing anyone off other than a marginal voter in the RGV who likes Trump. Is there evidence urban Hispanics are voting like RGV and other rural Hispanics? I don’t see people saying that any of those urban Hispanic districts are at risk like TX-34. And I can match Collin and Denton County with diverse suburbs all over the country if we want to extrapolate, too.

In a word: yes. The swing to Trump in Houston in Mexican-American neighborhoods, while not as large as in the RGV, was very large. In my mind, Democrats have much further to fall in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. You shouldn't view us as being "safe", you shouldn't write us off and treat us like your possession. There's no special issue that Democrats can use to appeal to Hispanics these days and, frankly, the way Democrats talk about race today actively alienates Hispanics!

Goodnight and good luck! P.S. you should be scared of diverse suburbs because those are suburbs that are lower middle class and poorer - this is ultimately a class issue.

Nobody is doing that? This is quite literally a made up concept that people use against Democrats when no one is treating Latinos/Hispanics as such?

Also, to the latter point in what you said, so the "way" Democrats talk about race is alienating but the way that the GOP has talked about race and in particular Latinos over the last 5-10 years isn't alienating? Come on now.

The liberal media hasn't covered this election, Democratic politicians aren't panicking over this election, Democrats didn't panic over massive losses sustained in 2020, they didn't prioritize immigration reform in 2021. Bluntly, in general, Democratic politicians and white liberals don't care about Hispanics. They don't care much about Asians either but there has been far more of a focus on "Asian hate" than any issue affecting Hispanics in this country.

Republicans were extremely alienating in 2016 and 2018 but they've dropped this rhetoric. Perversely, Democrats and, in particular, left-wing activists now sound much more offensive than Republicans. In the wake of Black Lives Matter, many actively scolded Latinos for being racist.

You're right about the activists. Not sure if that relates to normal Democrats and politicians though.

Whatever the case I think Democrats don't care much because this seat is going to flip back anyway with redistricting and the low turnout (they lost an RGV State Senate seat in 2018 also with rock bottom turnout) and I don't trust the GOP to not return to 2016-type rhetoric...but I've been saying Democrats need to fix their messaging to Latinos and the easiest start is by dropping a certain word. I think that is happening but slowly, it should pick up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RGV is just shifting right, no other explanations make sense. Not the end of the world. Better there than somewhere more vote rich.

That is not an explanation. There must be a reason for it - what is that reason? And what might that reason (or reasons) portend for the rest of the country? It isn't as if large numbers of people in the Rio Grande Valley went to bed one evening as loyal Democrats, had a dream that swung them wildly to the right and woke up the next as loyal Republicans, is it? That is not how things work. I will remind you (and everyone) that increasingly poor Democratic performances in the (overwhelmingly former) coalfields in central Appalachia were similarly dismissed as being of no consequence as, after all, the region is dying and depopulating, so why worry? Similar patterns would surely not be seen in other postindustrial regions (even though some had already shown indicators in that direction), ones never as culturally distinct and alien to the American mainstream, would they? The end result of being unable to see the wood for trees there was the Presidency of Donald Trump and a fundamental shift in the balance of your sovereign Supreme Court. Take this seriously.

[ProgressiveModerate]

RGV is just shifting right, no other explanations make sense. Not the end of the world. Better there than somewhere more vote rich.

That is not an explanation. There must be a reason for it - what is that reason? And what might that reason (or reasons) portend for the rest of the country? It isn't as if large numbers of people in the Rio Grande Valley went to bed one evening as loyal Democrats, had a dream that swung them wildly to the right and woke up the next as loyal Republicans, is it? That is not how things work. I will remind you (and everyone) that increasingly poor Democratic performances in the (overwhelmingly former) coalfields in central Appalachia were similarly dismissed as being of no consequence as, after all, the region is dying and depopulating, so why worry? Similar patterns would surely not be seen in other postindustrial regions (even though some had already shown indicators in that direction), ones never as culturally distinct and alien to the American mainstream, would they? The end result of being unable to see the wood for trees there was the Presidency of Donald Trump and a fundamental shift in the balance of your sovereign Supreme Court. Take this seriously.

I think it's for a variety of reasons:

-RGVs tendencies to back incumbents or the incumbent party federally
-Dems truly becoming the party of the "elite". I think in Texas as the state party becomes much more Austin and Urban based, this really affects greater messaging. Religious Hispanics in South Texas don't care that much about most cultural and social issues and infact it may hurt their relationship with those voters
-Trump's appeal to a lot of men in particular; much of this community has strong gender roles and expectations
-Non-Voters tending to break heavily for the GOP in an already low turnout region
-Immigration and the shift from Republicans as the racist party to the party of secure borders whereas Dems have done a poor job with the border
-Climate change becoming a bigger issue since this area relies on things like the oil industry

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Peltola takes the final spot in Alaska!

Also, Al Gross withdrew. Presumably this means the fifth-place candidate (Sweeney) will advance instead.

[2016]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

A bit ironic how literally 90% of the folks behind her are old white men with a few white women scattered in.

The main issue I have with the GOP is whenever a minority gets elected on the GOP, they often get pushed to the forefront to try and make the GOP seem more diverse than it actually is, even if they won on mostly or almost entirely white support. I'm not a fan of when Dems do it either, but at least their caucus is genuinely pretty diverse throughout and they tend to win over minority voters.

I will give credit to Flores though in that she both is a woman of colour and won off Hispanic voters which shows an expanding tent on the GOP's part.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

Tweet is incorrect. Blake Farenthold (yes that creepy sex pest guy who resigned and had to pay a settlement.) won in 2010 and represented an RGV-based district until redistricting.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

A bit ironic how literally 90% of the folks behind her are old white men with a few white women scattered in.

The main issue I have with the GOP is whenever a minority gets elected on the GOP, they often get pushed to the forefront to try and make the GOP seem more diverse than it actually is, even if they won on mostly or almost entirely white support. I'm not a fan of when Dems do it either, but at least their caucus is genuinely pretty diverse throughout and they tend to win over minority voters.

I will give credit to Flores though in that she both is a woman of colour and won off Hispanic voters which shows an expanding tent on the GOP's part.

The district is like 80% Hispanic. She didn’t win on mostly white support.

[2016]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

A bit ironic how literally 90% of the folks behind her are old white men with a few white women scattered in.

The main issue I have with the GOP is whenever a minority gets elected on the GOP, they often get pushed to the forefront to try and make the GOP seem more diverse than it actually is, even if they won on mostly or almost entirely white support. I'm not a fan of when Dems do it either, but at least their caucus is genuinely pretty diverse throughout and they tend to win over minority voters.

I will give credit to Flores though in that she both is a woman of colour and won off Hispanic voters which shows an expanding tent on the GOP's part.

The district is like 80% Hispanic. She didn’t win on mostly white support.

No, that's not what ProgressiveModerate meant. There are mostly White Men & White Women standing behind her when she speaks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

A bit ironic how literally 90% of the folks behind her are old white men with a few white women scattered in.

The main issue I have with the GOP is whenever a minority gets elected on the GOP, they often get pushed to the forefront to try and make the GOP seem more diverse than it actually is, even if they won on mostly or almost entirely white support. I'm not a fan of when Dems do it either, but at least their caucus is genuinely pretty diverse throughout and they tend to win over minority voters.

I will give credit to Flores though in that she both is a woman of colour and won off Hispanic voters which shows an expanding tent on the GOP's part.

The district is like 80% Hispanic. She didn’t win on mostly white support.

No, that's not what ProgressiveModerate meant. There are mostly White Men & White Women standing behind her when she speaks.

Ye thanks for the clarification.

Also in my original post I do say to Flores credit she did win with Hispanic support, just that on the GOP's part there is very few cases of them actually winning a significant share of the minority vote even if the Republican themself is a person of colour.

RGV and the border is prolly the only part of the country where the GOP could win an 80% or frankly 70% Hispanic district under current coalitions. The only other areas where we've seen them sort of breakthrough in recent history would be the central valley and Asians in Orange County, and ofc Miami.

By and large they still lose minorities by massive margins throughout the country

Having a racially diverse caucus doesn't mean much if most of those folks were put there by almost entirely white support.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

A bit ironic how literally 90% of the folks behind her are old white men with a few white women scattered in.

The main issue I have with the GOP is whenever a minority gets elected on the GOP, they often get pushed to the forefront to try and make the GOP seem more diverse than it actually is, even if they won on mostly or almost entirely white support. I'm not a fan of when Dems do it either, but at least their caucus is genuinely pretty diverse throughout and they tend to win over minority voters.

I will give credit to Flores though in that she both is a woman of colour and won off Hispanic voters which shows an expanding tent on the GOP's part.

The district is like 80% Hispanic. She didn’t win on mostly white support.

No, that's not what ProgressiveModerate meant. There are mostly White Men & White Women standing behind her when she speaks.

Ye thanks for the clarification.

Also in my original post I do say to Flores credit she did win with Hispanic support, just that on the GOP's part there is very few cases of them actually winning a significant share of the minority vote even if the Republican themself is a person of colour.

RGV and the border is prolly the only part of the country where the GOP could win an 80% or frankly 70% Hispanic district under current coalitions. The only other areas where we've seen them sort of breakthrough in recent history would be the central valley and Asians in Orange County, and ofc Miami.

By and large they still lose minorities by massive margins throughout the country

Having a racially diverse caucus doesn't mean much if most of those folks were put there by almost entirely white support.

Why not?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

A bit ironic how literally 90% of the folks behind her are old white men with a few white women scattered in.

The main issue I have with the GOP is whenever a minority gets elected on the GOP, they often get pushed to the forefront to try and make the GOP seem more diverse than it actually is, even if they won on mostly or almost entirely white support. I'm not a fan of when Dems do it either, but at least their caucus is genuinely pretty diverse throughout and they tend to win over minority voters.

I will give credit to Flores though in that she both is a woman of colour and won off Hispanic voters which shows an expanding tent on the GOP's part.

The district is like 80% Hispanic. She didn’t win on mostly white support.

No, that's not what ProgressiveModerate meant. There are mostly White Men & White Women standing behind her when she speaks.

Ye thanks for the clarification.

Also in my original post I do say to Flores credit she did win with Hispanic support, just that on the GOP's part there is very few cases of them actually winning a significant share of the minority vote even if the Republican themself is a person of colour.

RGV and the border is prolly the only part of the country where the GOP could win an 80% or frankly 70% Hispanic district under current coalitions. The only other areas where we've seen them sort of breakthrough in recent history would be the central valley and Asians in Orange County, and ofc Miami.

By and large they still lose minorities by massive margins throughout the country

Having a racially diverse caucus doesn't mean much if most of those folks were put there by almost entirely white support.

Why not?

It means something in it's own sense, but whether or not you're actually winning over minroity voters in teh ultimately test

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close at 8 ET for the Oklahoma Special Senate Primary and at 9 ET for the NE-01 Special General Election.

Oklahoma: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/28/us/elections/results-oklahoma-us-senate-special-primary.html

Nebraska: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/28/us/elections/results-nebraska-us-house-district-1.html

[Mexican Wolf]

With 7% of the vote in according to CNN, Mullin has a significant lead over Shannon, 44% to 18.7%. Mullin's leading in every county that has results so far except for Comanche and Cotton in the southwest.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updated 1m ago
33% REPORTED
Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.   
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat   22,372   +57.0%57.0%   
Mike Flood
Republican   16,894   +43.0%43.0   
Total reported
39,266   

WOW!!!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Updated 1m ago
33% REPORTED
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat 22,372 +57.0%57.0%
Mike Flood
Republican 16,894 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
39,266

WOW!!!

Is this upset level results ?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Updated 1m ago
33% REPORTED
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat 22,372 +57.0%57.0%
Mike Flood
Republican 16,894 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
39,266

WOW!!!

Is this upset level results ?

I'm going to guess these are almost all from Lancaster County.