Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[DaleCooper]

Let's not project too much with this result. I don't think NE-01 is representative of the nation at large. This is a district that House Republicans won by 40 points in 2016, 22 in 2020, and now less than 7 in this 2022 special election. This is a district that congressional Republicans used to outperform GOP presidential candidates in and with the death of ticket splitting, that was always going to change no matter how tough Biden's midterm will be. There are specific Republicans that should be scared of this, like ones representing suburban districts or candidates like Dr. Oz who think they're going to over-perform in the the suburbs. That's still something that can be a game-changer in the future, but it's not going to be a uniform swing.

[MT Treasurer]

If you’re a Democrat in a district which contains (a) industrial towns where Democratic strength has historically been powered by economic & class issues, (b) culturally conservative areas where Democrats have relied on local organization/branding in the past, or (c) a large share of non-college-educated voters with no high-density suburban areas or college towns to offset a collapse among the former, you should still be extremely worried because those are the types of districts that will be hardest by any GOP victory, not places like NE-01. We’re still going to see some GOP improvement over Trump's showing in many suburban districts (although more so in lower-density, whiter areas), but for people like Don Bacon (who I always thought was more vulnerable than many thought), a win in 2022 is basically the last ride.

[wbrocks67]

LOL, it's too funny to see people who dismiss these special elections when it doesn't align with how they personally think things should go.

There's a balance here - it's just one special. However, given the narrative about the environment and how horrific it is for Biden/Ds, especially with pieces about how the suburbs are 'going back to the Rs', this result provides a lot of contradictory evidence to that.

Even just getting Biden's -11 margin in this district would've been a great result, but a -6.8 loss, especially in a high turnout (surprisingly) special likely shows that Dobbs could be having a bit of an impact already, but also that specific areas, like others have said, are pissed off and not voting R anytime soon. Her margin in Lancaster specifically is pretty big, especially how much she outperformed Biden there.

[wbrocks67]

Just noting this race has 108,000 votes counted already and the TX-34 race that people are hailing as the dawn of a realignment had total turnout of 29,000 votes.

This.

[walleye26]

I also wonder if this election had been held in April when students were at school in Lincoln if that would have tightened this up quite a bit.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes counted in NE-01, margin down to +6.4 for Rs from +6.8.

Looks like Lancaster has the most votes outstanding (~3500) so could narrow down to +6.0

[2016]

wbrocks67,
You are a little bit of a Fraud. Acting all of the sudden like Democrats will gain 15 Seats and hold the House is baloney.

The Economy/Inflation are still the Top 2 Issues for Voters.

For Comparision: In 2018 41 % picked Healthcare as Top Issue according to Exit Polls and I doubt Abortion will be that high.

[wbrocks67]

wbrocks67,
You are a little bit of a Fraud. Acting all of the sudden like Democrats will gain 15 Seats and hold the House is baloney.

The Economy/Inflation are still the Top 2 Issues for Voters.

For Comparision: In 2018 41 % picked Healthcare as Top Issue according to Exit Polls and I doubt Abortion will be that high.

I quite literally said nothing of the sort and if you read my post, I showed that there's a lot of nuance to this result. Gurl bye!

[walleye26]

As of 9am central, I checked the Lancaster County election website and they said there are still 1,400 early votes and about 750 provisional ballots left. I’m guessing those lean Dem, so this margin should narrow.

[GALeftist]

What an insane result, lol. Couple thoughts:

1. I think there are probably a number of factors (Dobbs, Fortenberry's scandal continuing to haunt Rs in the district, trends accelerating just like we saw in TX-34), some of which are probably generalizable and some of which are probably district specific.
2. Whatever the case, though, this was insanely decoupled from Biden's approval. I don't think this proves that that will be the case in November, but it does prove that it could be the case in November, at least in some races. I'd advise Republicans not to take races for granted just because Biden is unpopular.
3. On that note, Bacon should be somewhat concerned, and I'd say that people in other seats that are sprinting left (Sharice Davids, Spanberger, Angie Craig, maybe David Trone too) might have cause for optimism.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Final result seems to be about Flood +6.34.

If you extrapolate that swing from the 2020 Presidential numbers you basically get 2018 results in the House. Now I'm not saying that you can extrapolate such a swing across the board obviously, but as noted above we might have proof that Biden's approvals aren't the main issue and the midterm isn't a referendum on him.

[Ferguson97]

Was Flood an atrocious, scandal-ridden candidate or something? I can't really think of any explanation for this, unless this is part of a Roe backlash.

[wbrocks67]

Was Flood an atrocious, scandal-ridden candidate or something? I can't really think of any explanation for this, unless this is part of a Roe backlash.

Turnout in Lancaster County looks to be 35%+ which is kind of extraordinary for a special election that many didn't seem to know about. Seems like blue areas were very charged up for the election, which would place Dobbs right into it.

[Ferguson97]

Was Flood an atrocious, scandal-ridden candidate or something? I can't really think of any explanation for this, unless this is part of a Roe backlash.

Turnout in Lancaster County looks to be 35%+ which is kind of extraordinary for a special election that many didn't seem to know about. Seems like blue areas were very charged up for the election, which would place Dobbs right into it.

So what's the explanation for the D-shift here and the R-shift in Texas happen simultaneously?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have to say, both Flood and Brooks are like the epitome of "Generic R" and "Generic D" on basically everything. Obviously I didn't witness the campaign first hand but everything about them makes it seem like they were grown in a lab.

[wbrocks67]

Was Flood an atrocious, scandal-ridden candidate or something? I can't really think of any explanation for this, unless this is part of a Roe backlash.

Turnout in Lancaster County looks to be 35%+ which is kind of extraordinary for a special election that many didn't seem to know about. Seems like blue areas were very charged up for the election, which would place Dobbs right into it.

So what's the explanation for the D-shift here and the R-shift in Texas happen simultaneously?

Well TX was super low turnout. Not even 30K people, versus 110K+ here.

Interestingly enough though you had the R spending 10-1 over the D in both races. TX was also pre-Roe of course, and a jungle primary is also always iffy compared to a direct one on one.

[Brittain33]

Was Flood an atrocious, scandal-ridden candidate or something? I can't really think of any explanation for this, unless this is part of a Roe backlash.

Turnout in Lancaster County looks to be 35%+ which is kind of extraordinary for a special election that many didn't seem to know about. Seems like blue areas were very charged up for the election, which would place Dobbs right into it.

So what's the explanation for the D-shift here and the R-shift in Texas happen simultaneously?

1. Texas was before Dobbs. The leak had happened but it really seems this is where people sat up and took notice.
2. That said, this is a suburban/educated voter shift, it may be the RGV would have shifted R anyway because it’s more rural and lower educational attainment. I don’t know that it would have voted much differently yesterday because I know nothing about abortion rights sentiment in the RGV.

[Brittain33]

Does Cuellar lose if his race came after Dobbs? Given the closeness, I think so.

[walleye26]

Looking at Sarpy County’s precinct results, the La Vista and Papillon areas went from red to blue (2020 results there were slightly Trump, last night slightly Brooks). Bellevue had a few precincts that moved left, but a few precincts in the northeastern part right on the river/Douglas county line moved right a bit.

[Progressive Pessimist]

LOL, it's too funny to see people who dismiss these special elections when it doesn't align with how they personally think things should go.

There's a balance here - it's just one special. However, given the narrative about the environment and how horrific it is for Biden/Ds, especially with pieces about how the suburbs are 'going back to the Rs', this result provides a lot of contradictory evidence to that.

Even just getting Biden's -11 margin in this district would've been a great result, but a -6.8 loss, especially in a high turnout (surprisingly) special likely shows that Dobbs could be having a bit of an impact already, but also that specific areas, like others have said, are pissed off and not voting R anytime soon. Her margin in Lancaster specifically is pretty big, especially how much she outperformed Biden there.

Agreed. I don't want to read too much into this either. But I think it can, unequivocally, be considered good news for Democrats. It at the minimum suggests that the Democrats are maintaining at least some of the suburban support attained through the Trump era and that a midterm with Dobbs as a consideration is absolutely going to be different from one without, likely to Democrats' benefit. I don't know if either of those things will be enough to yield what can be called a positive environment for Democrats, but the fact that this is a possibility at all, is significant. I suppose we'll see if similar fundamentals occur in the MN-1 special, the NY-19 special, and especially the Kansas referendum.

But for me, this was a very pleasant surprise to come upon today, especially after a very depressing few days.

Also, quick side-note: I am very disappointed that this thread hasn't been flooded with flood puns.

[Politician]

Democrats who dismissed TX-34 as meaningless creaming themselves over losing by less than expected, how utterly pathetic

The reason this race was surprisingly close was because the election was inexplicably held under the new lines, which caused the portion of Sarpy added to the new district to have really low turnout. This was a complete outlier, and Democrats thinking there will be a blue wave are going to look like idiots come November.

[libertpaulian]

To those who say special elections don't matter...

Mike Garcia won the spring 2020 special by 10% in CA-25. That was a harbinger of the GOP's gains in the House that following November, where they were 5 seats away from taking Pelosi's gavel away.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats who dismissed TX-34 as meaningless creaming themselves over losing by less than expected, how utterly pathetic

The reason this race was surprisingly close was because the election was inexplicably held under the new lines, which caused the portion of Sarpy added to the new district to have really low turnout. This was a complete outlier, and Democrats thinking there will be a blue wave are going to look like idiots come November.

Lancaster County has always been fully in the district and swung four points.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Democrats who dismissed TX-34 as meaningless creaming themselves over losing by less than expected, how utterly pathetic

The reason this race was surprisingly close was because the election was inexplicably held under the new lines, which caused the portion of Sarpy added to the new district to have really low turnout. This was a complete outlier, and Democrats thinking there will be a blue wave are going to look like idiots come November.

The part of Sarpy County added to the new lines isn't that Republican, and doesn't contain that many people. It is primarily marginal Trump 2020 suburbs. I doubt it would have made much of a difference in the final result. If anything, this slice of Sarpy is exactly the kind of place where Brooks would have overperformed Biden.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I have to say, both Flood and Brooks are like the epitome of "Generic R" and "Generic D" on basically everything. Obviously I didn't witness the campaign first hand but everything about them makes it seem like they were grown in a lab.

They were nominated by the parties instead of elected via primaries, which is generally a breeding ground for generic candidates.