Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Aurelius]

Mexican-Americans have created huge upward mobility for themselves over the past decade, in spite of having the lowest rates of educational attainment of any major American racial or ethnic group. In other words, they're becoming kulaks, who have never been big on left-leaning politics.

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder only 30k folks voted in this special election… compared with over 200k in 2020. That’s a very small small sample. In 2022 I’d expect at least 90k votes to be cast in the new iteration.

Kinda embarrassing how on Dems part they literally did 0 funding to Sanchez and got this awful turnout

isn't that more of an indictment on Republicans? They are the ones who actually funded their candidate in this race and they still got horrific turnout. Democrats didn't try, and expectedly, didn't get much return.

But again, on that tip, the fact that this was low turnout and Ds barely spent a dime, and only lost by 5% R-to-D when Rs spent like $2M on their candidate makes their win not that amazing IMO

[Aurelius]

Just a reminder only 30k folks voted in this special election… compared with over 200k in 2020. That’s a very small small sample. In 2022 I’d expect at least 90k votes to be cast in the new iteration.

Kinda embarrassing how on Dems part they literally did 0 funding to Sanchez and got this awful turnout

isn't that more of an indictment on Republicans? They are the ones who actually funded their candidate in this race and they still got horrific turnout. Democrats didn't try, and expectedly, didn't get much return.

But again, on that tip, the fact that this was low turnout and Ds barely spent a dime, and only lost by 5% R-to-D when Rs spent like $2M on their candidate makes their win not that amazing IMO

A couple things:

1. The RGV has always been an extremely low-turnout area. This isn't an anomaly.

2. Campaigns aren't everything. If, by some freak occurrence, there was a special election in AOC's district where the Dem didn't campaign at all and the Republican outspent the Dems 20:1, the Dem would still win in a landslide.

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder only 30k folks voted in this special election… compared with over 200k in 2020. That’s a very small small sample. In 2022 I’d expect at least 90k votes to be cast in the new iteration.

Kinda embarrassing how on Dems part they literally did 0 funding to Sanchez and got this awful turnout

isn't that more of an indictment on Republicans? They are the ones who actually funded their candidate in this race and they still got horrific turnout. Democrats didn't try, and expectedly, didn't get much return.

But again, on that tip, the fact that this was low turnout and Ds barely spent a dime, and only lost by 5% R-to-D when Rs spent like $2M on their candidate makes their win not that amazing IMO

A couple things:

1. The RGV has always been an extremely low-turnout area. This isn't an anomaly.

2. Campaigns aren't everything. If, by some freak occurrence, there was a special election in AOC's district where the Dem didn't campaign at all and the Republican outspent the Dems 20:1, the Dem would still win in a landslide.

You're comparing a district where the Democrat usually wins by like 40 compared to a Biden +4 district in a Biden midterm. Bad comparison. In a close district like this, if one party is spending 20:1, it's going to matter.

[Matty]

wbrocks, just out of curiously

Gun to your head

What happens in the midterms in November?

You seem to strongly imply in a lot of your responses that you think the dems will hold their own

[lfromnj]

Just find it funny how the take is a few months ago that Trumpists in the RGV were low propensity voters.

[One Term Floridian]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

[Lief 🗽]

In case anyone thought Democratic politicians are interested in learning any lessons from this. We’re losing 80% Hispanic districts and they’re blaming white supremacy…
https://twitter.com/jamaalbowmanny/status/1537092938425061376?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

While I agree Dems need to adjust their messaging, what evidence do you have that their suburban/college educated gains aren’t “perminent”, at least any more so than GOP’s with Hispanics. Places like Gwinnett County and Collin are not going back to being R + 20 in a normal election cause they’re physically very different counties than they used to be.

Also generally speaking the National electorate is changing in a way that favored democrats. Does this mean they’ll get a permanent winning coalition? No. But as the nation gets more urban, educated, and diverse the gop HAS to gain with some of these voters to stay viable

[One Term Floridian]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

While I agree Dems need to adjust their messaging, what evidence do you have that their suburban/college educated gains aren’t “perminent”, at least any more so than GOP’s with Hispanics. Places like Gwinnett County and Collin are not going back to being R + 20 in a normal election cause they’re physically very different counties than they used to be.

Also generally speaking the National electorate is changing in a way that favored democrats. Does this mean they’ll get a permanent winning coalition? No. But as the nation gets more urban, educated, and diverse the gop HAS to gain with some of these voters to stay viable

We have been saying all of that since 2012 and look where it has gotten us. The GOP *has* been making gains with some urban voters and some Asian demographics as well. We are the ones who need to be making gains in the other party's demographics to stay viable. We can't just be relying on college educated voters all the time.

[wbrocks67]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

While I agree Dems need to adjust their messaging, what evidence do you have that their suburban/college educated gains aren’t “perminent”, at least any more so than GOP’s with Hispanics. Places like Gwinnett County and Collin are not going back to being R + 20 in a normal election cause they’re physically very different counties than they used to be.

Also generally speaking the National electorate is changing in a way that favored democrats. Does this mean they’ll get a permanent winning coalition? No. But as the nation gets more urban, educated, and diverse the gop HAS to gain with some of these voters to stay viable

We have been saying all of that since 2012 and look where it has gotten us. The GOP *has* been making gains with some urban voters and some Asian demographics as well. We are the ones who need to be making gains in the other party's demographics to stay viable. We can't just be relying on college educated voters all the time.

The GOP's gains with urban voters are dubious at best, and a lot of the Hispanic strength in 2020 had to do with Trump being an incumbent as well.

Remember when NM-01 was supposed to show the collapse of Dems with Hispanics last year and nothing happened? Yes, the Dems have work to do with Latinos, but I think the data is extremely muddy overall, given we've also seen numerous polling now that shows Dems still have strength with that group.

[One Term Floridian]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

While I agree Dems need to adjust their messaging, what evidence do you have that their suburban/college educated gains aren’t “perminent”, at least any more so than GOP’s with Hispanics. Places like Gwinnett County and Collin are not going back to being R + 20 in a normal election cause they’re physically very different counties than they used to be.

Also generally speaking the National electorate is changing in a way that favored democrats. Does this mean they’ll get a permanent winning coalition? No. But as the nation gets more urban, educated, and diverse the gop HAS to gain with some of these voters to stay viable

We have been saying all of that since 2012 and look where it has gotten us. The GOP *has* been making gains with some urban voters and some Asian demographics as well. We are the ones who need to be making gains in the other party's demographics to stay viable. We can't just be relying on college educated voters all the time.

The GOP's gains with urban voters are dubious at best, and a lot of the Hispanic strength in 2020 had to do with Trump being an incumbent as well.

Remember when NM-01 was supposed to show the collapse of Dems with Hispanics last year and nothing happened? Yes, the Dems have work to do with Latinos, but I think the data is extremely muddy overall, given we've also seen numerous polling now that shows Dems still have strength with that group.

I think the data in November will be pretty clear that we're losing a ton of ground with them. Let's just wait and see I guess

[ProgressiveModerate]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

While I agree Dems need to adjust their messaging, what evidence do you have that their suburban/college educated gains aren’t “perminent”, at least any more so than GOP’s with Hispanics. Places like Gwinnett County and Collin are not going back to being R + 20 in a normal election cause they’re physically very different counties than they used to be.

Also generally speaking the National electorate is changing in a way that favored democrats. Does this mean they’ll get a permanent winning coalition? No. But as the nation gets more urban, educated, and diverse the gop HAS to gain with some of these voters to stay viable

We have been saying all of that since 2012 and look where it has gotten us. The GOP *has* been making gains with some urban voters and some Asian demographics as well. We are the ones who need to be making gains in the other party's demographics to stay viable. We can't just be relying on college educated voters all the time.

Because the gop has made gains to offset it, not because it isn’t true. If Dems were getting Obama’s numbers with minorities today for instance, they’d be in a very strong place but because Rs made gains that cut into those margins, it cancels out.

However, this shows how by default Republicans need to gain with these voters

[bilaps]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

While I agree Dems need to adjust their messaging, what evidence do you have that their suburban/college educated gains aren’t “perminent”, at least any more so than GOP’s with Hispanics. Places like Gwinnett County and Collin are not going back to being R + 20 in a normal election cause they’re physically very different counties than they used to be.

Also generally speaking the National electorate is changing in a way that favored democrats. Does this mean they’ll get a permanent winning coalition? No. But as the nation gets more urban, educated, and diverse the gop HAS to gain with some of these voters to stay viable

We have been saying all of that since 2012 and look where it has gotten us. The GOP *has* been making gains with some urban voters and some Asian demographics as well. We are the ones who need to be making gains in the other party's demographics to stay viable. We can't just be relying on college educated voters all the time.

The GOP's gains with urban voters are dubious at best, and a lot of the Hispanic strength in 2020 had to do with Trump being an incumbent as well.

Remember when NM-01 was supposed to show the collapse of Dems with Hispanics last year and nothing happened? Yes, the Dems have work to do with Latinos, but I think the data is extremely muddy overall, given we've also seen numerous polling now that shows Dems still have strength with that group.

I think the data in November will be pretty clear that we're losing a ton of ground with them. Let's just wait and see I guess

He'll say that it's because of Biden or environment nationally just like he said it's because Trump's incumbency. Heard that one before and never made any sense to me.

[GALeftist]

RGV is just shifting right, no other explanations make sense. Not the end of the world. Better there than somewhere more vote rich.

[Brittain33]

Just find it funny how the take is a few months ago that Trumpists in the RGV were low propensity voters.

They are. The problem is, so are the Democrats. Turnout was abysmal.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in McAllen, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Dallas and you can repeat that in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada."

You do realize that Mexicans do not only live in Brownsville but also in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and, basically, throughout Texas? Right now, it might appear that the "trade" is worthwhile but we are a rapidly growing demographic and Democrats have a lot to lose from writing us off - there's nothing preventing Mexican-Americans from giving Trump 60 or even 65 percent of the vote in Texas in 2024.

Not writing anyone off other than a marginal voter in the RGV who likes Trump. Is there evidence urban Hispanics are voting like RGV and other rural Hispanics? I don’t see people saying that any of those urban Hispanic districts are at risk like TX-34. And I can match Collin and Denton County with diverse suburbs all over the country if we want to extrapolate, too.

In a word: yes. The swing to Trump in Houston in Mexican-American neighborhoods, while not as large as in the RGV, was very large. In my mind, Democrats have much further to fall in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. You shouldn't view us as being "safe", you shouldn't write us off and treat us like your possession. There's no special issue that Democrats can use to appeal to Hispanics these days and, frankly, the way Democrats talk about race today actively alienates Hispanics!

Goodnight and good luck! P.S. you should be scared of diverse suburbs because those are suburbs that are lower middle class and poorer - this is ultimately a class issue.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

RGV is just shifting right, no other explanations make sense. Not the end of the world. Better there than somewhere more vote rich.

What this post is actually saying: due to innumeracy, I have found a way to cope with the fact that my party is a loathed piece of excrement in every rural area where neither Blacks nor American Indians live.

[E-Dawg]

Is Kenedy county destined to always vote for the losing candidate lmao

[wbrocks67]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in McAllen, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Dallas and you can repeat that in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada."

You do realize that Mexicans do not only live in Brownsville but also in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and, basically, throughout Texas? Right now, it might appear that the "trade" is worthwhile but we are a rapidly growing demographic and Democrats have a lot to lose from writing us off - there's nothing preventing Mexican-Americans from giving Trump 60 or even 65 percent of the vote in Texas in 2024.

Not writing anyone off other than a marginal voter in the RGV who likes Trump. Is there evidence urban Hispanics are voting like RGV and other rural Hispanics? I don’t see people saying that any of those urban Hispanic districts are at risk like TX-34. And I can match Collin and Denton County with diverse suburbs all over the country if we want to extrapolate, too.

In a word: yes. The swing to Trump in Houston in Mexican-American neighborhoods, while not as large as in the RGV, was very large. In my mind, Democrats have much further to fall in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. You shouldn't view us as being "safe", you shouldn't write us off and treat us like your possession. There's no special issue that Democrats can use to appeal to Hispanics these days and, frankly, the way Democrats talk about race today actively alienates Hispanics!

Goodnight and good luck! P.S. you should be scared of diverse suburbs because those are suburbs that are lower middle class and poorer - this is ultimately a class issue.

Nobody is doing that? This is quite literally a made up concept that people use against Democrats when no one is treating Latinos/Hispanics as such?

Also, to the latter point in what you said, so the "way" Democrats talk about race is alienating but the way that the GOP has talked about race and in particular Latinos over the last 5-10 years isn't alienating? Come on now.

[Politician]

RGV is just shifting right, no other explanations make sense. Not the end of the world. Better there than somewhere more vote rich.

What this post is actually saying: due to innumeracy, I have found a way to cope with the fact that my party is a loathed piece of excrement in every rural area where neither Blacks nor American Indians live.

Even Black/Native American rural areas are trending Republican, there are a lot of Obama 12-Trump 16-Trump 20 counties with large Black/Native American populations.

[GALeftist]

RGV is just shifting right, no other explanations make sense. Not the end of the world. Better there than somewhere more vote rich.

What this post is actually saying: due to innumeracy, I have found a way to cope with the fact that my party is a loathed piece of excrement in every rural area where neither Blacks nor American Indians live.

Obviously it's not ideal, but parties can't really be popular everywhere in this day and age. Sometimes populations shift against you, it's just inevitable.

[It’s so Joever]

Is Kenedy county destined to always vote for the losing candidate lmao

Based as f**k.

[Senator Incitatus]

In case anyone thought Democratic politicians are interested in learning any lessons from this. We’re losing 80% Hispanic districts and they’re blaming white supremacy…
[-tweet-]

I mean, we all know the endgame here is for the Democratic Party to start obsessing about racial differences within the broader "Hispanic" identity. White Hispanics are destined for the same relative treatment as Italians or Poles, which will be worse in absolute terms given how the hatred of whites has risen generally.

[GALeftist]

In case anyone thought Democratic politicians are interested in learning any lessons from this. We’re losing 80% Hispanic districts and they’re blaming white supremacy…
[-tweet-]

I mean, we all know the endgame here is for the Democratic Party to start obsessing about racial differences within the broader "Hispanic" identity. White Hispanics are destined for the same relative treatment as Italians or Poles, which will be worse in absolute terms given how the hatred of whites has risen generally.

Spit out my drink lmfao