2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is not gonna win

[Unelectable Bystander]

Don’t forget: polls that red avatars like are always strong data points. Polls that they dislike are anomalies with questionable quality

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every poll has CCM ahead except Traggy and most polls  other than Emerson has Ryan lead we're not gonna win every red state race but we need enough of a wave to net the TRIFECTA and you talk about red avatars don't like certain polls, it's the same with blue avatars they discount the Blk and Brown and female vote , if it was truly a red wave Mary Peltola wouldn't have placed first I'm AK she would have been landslides Nick Begich has zero chance of becoming Rep Elect and Mary Peltola is a female native American Nations Americans are akin to Asian and Latinos

Reynolds is gonna win because she takes away the gender Gap, Rs are gonna win IA and MO, not enough Minority in both states

Act blue is solely concentrate on AZ, GA, Wzi, PA, NC and FL and TX due to minority vote and non Evangelical female white female

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don’t forget: polls that red avatars like are always strong data points. Polls that they dislike are anomalies with questionable quality

Whereas Republicans never cherry-pick polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don’t forget: polls that red avatars like are always strong data points. Polls that they dislike are anomalies with questionable quality

Whereas Republicans never cherry-pick polls

Lol all the Rs jumped on the Emerson Poll showing Vance ahead including MT Treasurer and Traggy polls that show Laxalt winning and no response from MT Treason on the DeWine Lake internal showing a dead heat fir Gov, that's cherry picking polls and still no response from MT Treasurer on the Suffolk poll showing CCM up by 7,R cherry pick  polls

Rs are supposed to be ahead in all the swing states at Biden 41 percent Approvals, Obama had 47 percent Approvals and Rs won all the close races in 2010/14 you know why Rs aren't ahead Trump has high Disapprovals in all the swing states

[MT Treasurer]

Don’t forget: polls that red avatars like are always strong data points. Polls that they dislike are anomalies with questionable quality

The funny thing is that most green avatars on this board are more partisan/hackish than most red avatars.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are 5 vul Rs and 2 vulnerable D's each now in Sen and Gov races

as follows AZ, GA D likewise Rubio, NC, OH, PA and Johnson for the Rs

Govs KS, OR D likewise AZ, FL, GA, MA, MD for Rs that's what it comes down to, 6 with TX but that is purely wave insurance

All the others are safe

There is no way Rs are gonna duplicate;2016 and McCain and Portman we're on the ballot and Scott Walker was Gov of WI, Johnson campaign with Scott Walker when he ran for Prez in 2016

He has Gov Evers and LT Barnes

[wbrocks67]

Here are some of the crosstabs from the NBC poll:

Black voters: 74% D, 15% R
Women: 52% D, 41% R
Latinos: 53% D, 39% R
18-34 year olds: 52% D, 38% R
Independents: 40% D, 39% R

Makes sense why it came out to R+2. If Republicans were actually getting 15% of the black vote, then yes, R+2 seems very likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy has Biden at 47/52 Approvals anyways, not 42%

47% of Likely voters Approve of Biden


https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_aug22?fullbrowser

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't really matter about Approvals anyways because we have the 303 map it's the fact we can keep the H where wave insurance come in because all the H seats that are vulnerable are in FL and TX not in WI, MI and PA and we will see tomorrow on NY and FL but if we lose them we can win them back in Nov

47 is close enough to 50, but since D's outnumber Rs even if the PVI is identical to 2020 we can get any wave map we didn't win 80M votes in 2018 and win Red states

We just don't know but McConnell is pessimistic about R takeover

Like OH Sen all of a sudden it's safe R just because Vance is ahead by 5 just like Ryan was ahead lol plse😆😆😆

Act blue dropped Strickland because he lost by the same margin that Nan Whaley is down, Nan W and DeJear are going the same way as Strickland  52/37

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The media is making the same mistake with Biden 41% as it did in January when QU had Biden Approvals are 33% and in Rassy in Jan he was at 41%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Pew research has the GCB at D+2.

Their last poll had it tied.



https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/23/midterm-election-preferences-voter-engagement-views-of-campaign-issues/

[Brittain33]

Did we see a continuous step by step decline in Dem performance by education in 2020, or is that new in 2022? I don’t remember when we completed our shift from U-shape (Dems best among no education, advanced degrees) to downward slope.

[wbrocks67]

The way that there are never any articles about the GOP's total collapse with 18-29 year olds/Zoomers/Millennials is stunning. It's almost like they completely get away with not even bothering to try to appeal to that age group.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The way that there are never any articles about the GOP's total collapse with 18-29 year olds/Zoomers/Millennials is stunning. It's almost like they completely get away with not even bothering to try to appeal to that age group.

It's not just that they don't try to appeal to young people, a fair number of Republican candidates actively campaign on their disdain for younger Americans.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The way that there are never any articles about the GOP's total collapse with 18-29 year olds/Zoomers/Millennials is stunning. It's almost like they completely get away with not even bothering to try to appeal to that age group.

That's because Zoomers don't read articles.  I imagine there are plenty of TikTok dances on this topic.

[wbrocks67]

Also Pew having D+2 while having Bidens approval at -23 sure is something lmao.

[Gracile]

Did we see a continuous step by step decline in Dem performance by education in 2020, or is that new in 2022? I don’t remember when we completed our shift from U-shape (Dems best among no education, advanced degrees) to downward slope.

Yes, both of the major exit polls found that higher education correlated with higher support for Democrats (at the national level) in 2020.

New York Times/Associated Press:

Trump 53%, Biden 46% - High school or less (27%)
Trump 50%, Biden 48% - Some college, or associate degree (34%)
Trump 42%, Biden 56% - College graduate (25%)
Trump 40%, Biden 58% - Postgraduate study (15%)

CNN/Edison Research (if you combine Some college and Associate's degree groups like NYT did, Biden would have won that cohort by about 49-48):

Trump 54%, Biden 46% - Never attended college (19%)
Trump 47%, Biden 51% - Some college (23%)
Trump 50%, Biden 47% - Associate's degree (16%)
Trump 47%, Biden 51% - Bachelor's degree (27%)
Trump 37%, Biden 62% - Advanced degree (15%)

You might be thinking of income, which didn't have a linear pattern in either poll, or possibly a specific state where the non-college population is heavily non-white and thus was more Democratic.

[Devils30]

Also Pew having D+2 while having Bidens approval at -23 sure is something lmao.

Undecideds are very Dem friendly in this one too.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The way that there are never any articles about the GOP's total collapse with 18-29 year olds/Zoomers/Millennials is stunning. It's almost like they completely get away with not even bothering to try to appeal to that age group.

As things are today, 18-29 are still a relatively low turnout group. Plus, I imagine those who do vote are more likely predisposed to being more liberal (college students). In the future, the GOP will almost certainly do better with Zoomers and Millennials as more join the electorate and some become more conservative with age. Also once they become more dominant the GOP will literally be forced to appeal to them or not be able to win elections.

It'll probably be soon that the GOP will really start to find difficulty winning elections without closing the gap at least a bit with this group since everyear more Millenials and Zoomers will join the active electorate (as more Boomers die too).

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting Stat from the Pew Research poll is the lower education folks are a lot more likely to be "undecided" than college educated folks.

Firstly, I think this could explain a huge part of why polling tends to underestimate the GOP in this day and age. And secondly, it disproves the idea that most swing voters are these well to do high education people who think very critically about the pros and cons of each canidate before casting their ballot.

[Brittain33]

One interesting Stat from the Pew Research poll is the lower education folks are a lot more likely to be "undecided" than college educated folks.

Firstly, I think this could explain a huge part of why polling tends to underestimate the GOP in this day and age. And secondly, it disproves the idea that most swing voters are these well to do high education people who think very critically about the pros and cons of each canidate before casting their ballot.

True, and Dems need to hope they resolve their uncertainty by staying home rather than showing up to vote R like they did in 2020.

[Adam Griffin]

Groups with >15% undecided in Pew poll:

26% Moderate/Liberal Rs   
24% Black
24% 18-29         
19% HS or Less      
18% Conservative/Mod Ds   
18% Hispanic      
17% Asian         
16% 30-49   

These combined groups (weighted by share of electorate and overall group lean) would have been a 57-43 Democratic bloc in 2020. The remaining undecideds would tilt GOP, but just barely.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/POLITICO has GCB at D+5, 47-42. Up 1 from last week (46-42)

I believe D+5 is the highest it's been in quite some time.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/23145441/2208119_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_08-24-22_SH.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280