PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol even Stephen Colbert did a skit dissing on Oz’s comments about Fetterman attire

[America Needs R'hllor]

I see Atlas Democrats are not getting Overconfident again

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I see Atlas Democrats are not getting Overconfident again

Well it's pretty clear Oz has the momentum from an objective view. He is running more ads in better spots on issues that work, and is reaching more people. At the very least, it's partially narrowed the gap, according to trustworthy polls. That's something I believe is real.

I'm here to call out blatant copes like "Well actually Oz is running an above average campaign" or "Fetterman's stroke makes him an unfit candidate".

[cb584968]

How does Fetterman do in rural PA? That’ll be interesting to watch.

[wbrocks67]

I see Atlas Democrats are not getting Overconfident again

Well it's pretty clear Oz has the momentum from an objective view. He is running more ads in better spots on issues that work, and is reaching more people. At the very least, it's partially narrowed the gap, according to trustworthy polls. That's something I believe is real.

I'm here to call out blatant copes like "Well actually Oz is running an above average campaign" or "Fetterman's stroke makes him an unfit candidate".

Depends how you define momentum, though. If starting out at 36% and getting to 41-44% is "momentum", then sure. But Oz is still not able to get past 44-45% in almost all of these polls with a favorability that has not gotten better (and likewise, Fetterman's image has not gotten worse, despite all the ads, which makes me believe this 'momentum' is just the race going to where it was always likely to go - Fetterman up 3-5%)

Also, Fetterman is likely getting a bigger bang for his buck at least with ads - Oz's campaign is being insanely supplemented by outside spending.

[Sestak]

For the last two weeks now literally every poll (with the exception of the one Marist one) has been showing between Fetterman +2 and Fetterman +5; and there have been a *lot* of them. Don't necessarily know what this would indicate if anything but I suspect a few of the more recent ones are herding at least a little bit to the range.

[wbrocks67]

For the last two weeks now literally every poll (with the exception of the one Marist one) has been showing between Fetterman +2 and Fetterman +5; and there have been a *lot* of them. Don't necessarily know what this would indicate if anything but I suspect a few of the more recent ones are herding at least a little bit to the range.

And that Marist one wasn't too far off, their LV model had Fetterman +7, so not too far from the +4/5's

That one had Fetterman topping 50 though, and Oz still stuck around 44%, which appears to be around his ceiling lately.

[Sir Mohamed]

For the last two weeks now literally every poll (with the exception of the one Marist one) has been showing between Fetterman +2 and Fetterman +5; and there have been a *lot* of them. Don't necessarily know what this would indicate if anything but I suspect a few of the more recent ones are herding at least a little bit to the range.

And that Marist one wasn't too far off, their LV model had Fetterman +7, so not too far from the +4/5's

That one had Fetterman topping 50 though, and Oz still stuck around 44%, which appears to be around his ceiling lately.

If there aren't 3rd party candidates on the ballot, Oz will for sure get more than 44% of the vote. I think he'll get at least ~46.5%, possibly as much as 48-49%. Meanwhile, I see Fetterman anywhere between 48% and 52%.

[wbrocks67]

For the last two weeks now literally every poll (with the exception of the one Marist one) has been showing between Fetterman +2 and Fetterman +5; and there have been a *lot* of them. Don't necessarily know what this would indicate if anything but I suspect a few of the more recent ones are herding at least a little bit to the range.

And that Marist one wasn't too far off, their LV model had Fetterman +7, so not too far from the +4/5's

That one had Fetterman topping 50 though, and Oz still stuck around 44%, which appears to be around his ceiling lately.

If there aren't 3rd party candidates on the ballot, Oz will for sure get more than 44% of the vote. I think he'll get at least ~46.5%, possibly as much as 48-49%. Meanwhile, I see Fetterman anywhere between 48% and 52%.

Agreed, the CBS 52-47 poll seemed most close to the likely actual result at this time

[Person Man]

Oz is just so bad at this.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1574784047993290753

Sticking it to The Man.

[BenjiG98]

Former Gov. Tom Ridge endorsed Oz.

[Senator Incitatus]

Former Gov. Tom Ridge endorsed Oz.

Unimportant and irrelevant in the face of the juggernaut Fetterman campaign:

https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/1575517810352078849

[ProgressiveModerate]

One dynamic of this race that I think is interesting is that Oz and Fetterman both feel like caricatures of a generic R and D Senate candidate from 10 years ago, even though they much more align with the modern day policies of their party.

Oz is the stereotypical rich out of touch Republican who wants less regulation whereas Fetterman is sort of a stereotypical working-class populist, who some may find somewhat immature.

Shapiro and Mastriano both seem to embody much more the current vibes of both parties with Mastriano being a far-right Trump loyalist and Shapiro being a relatively lowkey well-to-do Democrat.

I'm not too suprised we've seen quite a bit of splitting of endorsements and wouldn't be suprised to see it actually carry out in terms of votes in November.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1575508812269748231

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1575508812269748231

Since Fetterman is relatively left-wing and belongs to the progressive faction, not a huge surprise here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1575508812269748231

Since Fetterman is relatively left-wing and belongs to the progressive faction, not a huge surprise here.

Also Oz is not really that right wing despite being endorsed by Trump . The reason Trump endorsed him is cause of Melania was apparently a huge fan of Oz

[It’s so Joever]

It will be lovely when the same suburban educated moderates who thought voting Oz was a good idea get arrested for dissenting against the GOP regime even slightly in the future (or if they are lucky are intimidated into silence and constant fear)

This is NOT an endorsement of what is to come, but a bit of that sweet sweet schadenfreude.
(And no this isn’t hyperbole, unless you believe reality is hyperbole)

[Calthrina950]

One dynamic of this race that I think is interesting is that Oz and Fetterman both feel like caricatures of a generic R and D Senate candidate from 10 years ago, even though they much more align with the modern day policies of their party.

Oz is the stereotypical rich out of touch Republican who wants less regulation whereas Fetterman is sort of a stereotypical working-class populist, who some may find somewhat immature.

Shapiro and Mastriano both seem to embody much more the current vibes of both parties with Mastriano being a far-right Trump loyalist and Shapiro being a relatively lowkey well-to-do Democrat.

I'm not too suprised we've seen quite a bit of splitting of endorsements and wouldn't be suprised to see it actually carry out in terms of votes in November.

This is a very good analogy, and certainly represents the realignment in coalitions we've seen. However, the county maps between the two races, reflecting this realignment, will largely resemble each other, with Fetterman perhaps performing slightly better than Shapiro in the rural and blue collar areas, and Shapiro outrunning him in the Philadelphia suburbs and in more educated metropolitan areas like Centre County and Dauphin County.

[kwabbit]

One dynamic of this race that I think is interesting is that Oz and Fetterman both feel like caricatures of a generic R and D Senate candidate from 10 years ago, even though they much more align with the modern day policies of their party.

Oz is the stereotypical rich out of touch Republican who wants less regulation whereas Fetterman is sort of a stereotypical working-class populist, who some may find somewhat immature.

Shapiro and Mastriano both seem to embody much more the current vibes of both parties with Mastriano being a far-right Trump loyalist and Shapiro being a relatively lowkey well-to-do Democrat.

I'm not too suprised we've seen quite a bit of splitting of endorsements and wouldn't be suprised to see it actually carry out in terms of votes in November.

This is a very good analogy, and certainly represents the realignment in coalitions we've seen. However, the county maps between the two races, reflecting this realignment, will largely resemble each other, with Fetterman perhaps performing slightly better than Shapiro in the rural and blue collar areas, and Shapiro outrunning him in the Philadelphia suburbs and in more educated metropolitan areas like Centre County and Dauphin County.

If there's actually a 10 point difference in margin between Fetterman and Shapiro, Shapiro will probably out perform in every county. Rural counties have swing voters too and Shapiro has done quite well in rurals for a Democrat in his career.

[wbrocks67]

None of these endorsements are really shocking; the Republican in this race was always going to get most of them unless they were Mastriano-type bad.

[Calthrina950]

One dynamic of this race that I think is interesting is that Oz and Fetterman both feel like caricatures of a generic R and D Senate candidate from 10 years ago, even though they much more align with the modern day policies of their party.

Oz is the stereotypical rich out of touch Republican who wants less regulation whereas Fetterman is sort of a stereotypical working-class populist, who some may find somewhat immature.

Shapiro and Mastriano both seem to embody much more the current vibes of both parties with Mastriano being a far-right Trump loyalist and Shapiro being a relatively lowkey well-to-do Democrat.

I'm not too suprised we've seen quite a bit of splitting of endorsements and wouldn't be suprised to see it actually carry out in terms of votes in November.

This is a very good analogy, and certainly represents the realignment in coalitions we've seen. However, the county maps between the two races, reflecting this realignment, will largely resemble each other, with Fetterman perhaps performing slightly better than Shapiro in the rural and blue collar areas, and Shapiro outrunning him in the Philadelphia suburbs and in more educated metropolitan areas like Centre County and Dauphin County.

If there's actually a 10 point difference in margin between Fetterman and Shapiro, Shapiro will probably out perform in every county. Rural counties have swing voters too and Shapiro has done quite well in rurals for a Democrat in his career.

True, but even then, we're not going to see radically different county maps. Shapiro might carry a handful of counties (i.e. Cumberland, Northampton, etc.) that Fetterman loses, but not large numbers of Oz counties as might have been the case in an election 20 or 30 years ago. And I suspect Mastriano will probably outperform Oz in his state senate district and the counties immediately adjacent to it.

[kwabbit]

One dynamic of this race that I think is interesting is that Oz and Fetterman both feel like caricatures of a generic R and D Senate candidate from 10 years ago, even though they much more align with the modern day policies of their party.

Oz is the stereotypical rich out of touch Republican who wants less regulation whereas Fetterman is sort of a stereotypical working-class populist, who some may find somewhat immature.

Shapiro and Mastriano both seem to embody much more the current vibes of both parties with Mastriano being a far-right Trump loyalist and Shapiro being a relatively lowkey well-to-do Democrat.

I'm not too suprised we've seen quite a bit of splitting of endorsements and wouldn't be suprised to see it actually carry out in terms of votes in November.

This is a very good analogy, and certainly represents the realignment in coalitions we've seen. However, the county maps between the two races, reflecting this realignment, will largely resemble each other, with Fetterman perhaps performing slightly better than Shapiro in the rural and blue collar areas, and Shapiro outrunning him in the Philadelphia suburbs and in more educated metropolitan areas like Centre County and Dauphin County.

If there's actually a 10 point difference in margin between Fetterman and Shapiro, Shapiro will probably out perform in every county. Rural counties have swing voters too and Shapiro has done quite well in rurals for a Democrat in his career.

True, but even then, we're not going to see radically different county maps. Shapiro might carry a handful of counties (i.e. Cumberland, Northampton, etc.) that Fetterman loses, but not large numbers of Oz counties as might have been the case in an election 20 or 30 years ago. And I suspect Mastriano will probably outperform Oz in his state senate district and the counties immediately adjacent to it.

He's gonna win Northampton. Probably Luzerne. Idk about Cumberland, that's still a big lift for the Dems, and it's about the same level of Berks, which he could also carry.

[Calthrina950]

One dynamic of this race that I think is interesting is that Oz and Fetterman both feel like caricatures of a generic R and D Senate candidate from 10 years ago, even though they much more align with the modern day policies of their party.

Oz is the stereotypical rich out of touch Republican who wants less regulation whereas Fetterman is sort of a stereotypical working-class populist, who some may find somewhat immature.

Shapiro and Mastriano both seem to embody much more the current vibes of both parties with Mastriano being a far-right Trump loyalist and Shapiro being a relatively lowkey well-to-do Democrat.

I'm not too suprised we've seen quite a bit of splitting of endorsements and wouldn't be suprised to see it actually carry out in terms of votes in November.

This is a very good analogy, and certainly represents the realignment in coalitions we've seen. However, the county maps between the two races, reflecting this realignment, will largely resemble each other, with Fetterman perhaps performing slightly better than Shapiro in the rural and blue collar areas, and Shapiro outrunning him in the Philadelphia suburbs and in more educated metropolitan areas like Centre County and Dauphin County.

If there's actually a 10 point difference in margin between Fetterman and Shapiro, Shapiro will probably out perform in every county. Rural counties have swing voters too and Shapiro has done quite well in rurals for a Democrat in his career.

True, but even then, we're not going to see radically different county maps. Shapiro might carry a handful of counties (i.e. Cumberland, Northampton, etc.) that Fetterman loses, but not large numbers of Oz counties as might have been the case in an election 20 or 30 years ago. And I suspect Mastriano will probably outperform Oz in his state senate district and the counties immediately adjacent to it.

He's gonna win Northampton. Probably Luzerne. Idk about Cumberland, that's still a big lift for the Dems, and it's about the same level of Berks, which he could also carry.

Wolf carried Cumberland County in 2018, and Shapiro could if the bottom falls out for Mastriano. Luzerne County will probably split its ticket between Shapiro and Oz, and Berks County may also do so.

[Saint Milei]

Scrubbing blm from bio. Lmao

[wbrocks67]

Senate Majority PAC dumping another $2.6M for Fetterman.

While Fetterman leads Oz in fundraising, GOP is more than closing the gap with outside spending.

As of today, outside GOP orgs/PACs have dumped $36M into the race, as opposed to $26M for Dems. So if there is any "tightening" in this race, it's also likely actually do to that.