PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

If there is a decent amount of crossover with the moderate suburbanites Oz should be okay. The effect is probably muted in Pittsburgh but Philadelphia is much bigger. The big question is how many people in Philly metro area will Shapiro/Oz voters? The biggest worry for Oz is how many people in Western PA go Mastriano/Fetterman. Oz doesn't need to exceed Trumps margin in those counties but he needs to be able to match them at least.

There may be some slight crossover because Oz isn't as toxic as Mastriano in terms of how extreme he is, but a lot of this whole "Oz will do well in the suburbs" seems like wishcasting more than anything, especially with his position on abortion.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

It's not a bad campaign strategy, but is Oz really preaching to any swing voters on Fox?

I think you'd probably be surprised by the diversity of thought among cable news viewers of any channel. Sure, Fox viewers are disproportionately Republican and MSNBC's are disproportionately Democratic, but there is a fair amount of crossover. Fox in particular doesn't draw its large viewership from nowhere and is broadcast in a lot of places (restaurants, barbershops, etc.) as background ambience.

Plus, it's always a good idea to put your face in front of people who already agree with you to remind them to turn out.

Fair enough. The base probably isn't as excited to get out for Oz and I suppose getting out and talking to them would motivate them.

I think it's pretty clearly Lean D but Oz seems to be getting his sh*t together. The concern trolling about stroke might not move the needle but this will.

[The Dowager Mod]

Oz has to be trying to lose. 
https://twitter.com/farronbalanced/status/1574564630638186497

[prag_prog]

People keep saying Oz has momentum and is running a good campaign but whenever I look at any poll, Oz's favorables are horrible. They are the worst among any Republican Senate candidate that's running in competitive races this cycle. Even Mastriano seems to have better favorables than Oz. Masters, Walker, Johnson all have much better favorables than Oz. Personally, Oz comes across as more moderate than Mastriano but due to some reason Oz's favorables are awful among PA electorate

[bagelman]

Oz appeals to the worst instincts of the American electorate and the American people as a whole. His constant appearances on Fox News is a decent strategy, as he knows that people need to see and know him so he can turnout from the knuckle draggers.

He is a scam artist with decades of experience, a modern John R. Brinkley if not worse.

A victory for Oz would be worse for our nation than Trump 2016 was. Fetterman +2 polls are not enough here. Any sort of momentum for him, even if his favorables are underwater, is very dangerous. Trump had pretty low favorables in 2016 and he still won.

Thankfully there's still time to restore Fetterman's momentum going into October. Oz's momentum is real but neither massive nor unstoppable.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Oz has to be trying to lose. 
https://twitter.com/farronbalanced/status/1574564630638186497

I suppose it's possible that he is completely out of touch. But yeah, I just saw this and I did a double-take. I assumed it was some sort of deepfake pro-Fetterman thing. But nope, it's just Oz, de facto campaigning for his opponent.

[wbrocks67]

Oz appeals to the worst instincts of the American electorate and the American people as a whole. His constant appearances on Fox News is a decent strategy, as he knows that people need to see and know him so he can turnout from the knuckle draggers.

He is a scam artist with decades of experience, a modern John R. Brinkley if not worse.

A victory for Oz would be worse for our nation than Trump 2016 was. Fetterman +2 polls are not enough here. Any sort of momentum for him, even if his favorables are underwater, is very dangerous. Trump had pretty low favorables in 2016 and he still won.

Thankfully there's still time to restore Fetterman's momentum going into October. Oz's momentum is real but neither massive nor unstoppable.

There really doesn't seem to be a difference in momentum though? The race is still the same as it was. Oz's favorables at like -20 an Fettermans at +5. We've now had multiple polls through different weeks with this.

I will say that Oz/GOP are still doing a great job at running ads nonstop though. If there is any "momentum shift", it likely came from that.

[wbrocks67]

DSCC finally jumping in

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1574766747940519940

[The Dowager Mod]

There it is. lol 
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1574784047993290753

[Ferguson97]

I feel like I'm being gaslighted about Oz's supposed "momentum" here, I have frankly not seen any evidence of that but it seems like everyone has just accepted it as fact.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I feel like I'm being gaslighted about Oz's supposed "momentum" here, I have frankly not seen any evidence of that but it seems like everyone has just accepted it as fact.

Because PA is a swing state and it seems impossible to believe this race could be more than a 2 point margin in either direction. It is not tied to reality in any sense, it is merely a guess based on the fact that it should be closer.

[Aurelius]

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

I strongly recommend to you what another user on here recommended to me via PM — a more liberal use of the 'hard ignore' option (not 'soft ignore') for posters who aren’t interested in actual discussion and view this space as their personal echo chamber, place for name-calling, etc. I was hesitant to make use of this at first, but it’s pretty clear that it’s by far the best way to deal with the most 'vocal' posters in particular. It really enhances your forum experience, and you really don’t miss out on anything.

I can see the option in my settings to more thoroughly hide posts from those on my ignore list. But how do I "hard ignore" some users while soft-ignoring others? I'd like to hard-ignore spammers and dunces while soft-ignoring those who I merely find annoying.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

I strongly recommend to you what another user on here recommended to me via PM — a more liberal use of the 'hard ignore' option (not 'soft ignore') for posters who aren’t interested in actual discussion and view this space as their personal echo chamber, place for name-calling, etc. I was hesitant to make use of this at first, but it’s pretty clear that it’s by far the best way to deal with the most 'vocal' posters in particular. It really enhances your forum experience, and you really don’t miss out on anything.

I can see the option in my settings to more thoroughly hide posts from those on my ignore list. But how do I "hard ignore" some users while soft-ignoring others? I'd like to hard-ignore spammers and dunces while soft-ignoring those who I merely find annoying.

I don't think you can differentiate between users to that level.  I interpreted MT's post as meaning he went to the hard ignore option because it was worth it to weed out the worst offenders; if I'm wrong and he knows how to do it specifically, hopefully he'll say so.

And I would echo the recommendation to use the hard ignore.  I had it set but cleared out my ignore list when I became a mod so I wouldn't miss anything on my boards, and I definitely miss it in some cases.

[GALeftist]

Gonna start just saying Stacey Abrams has gained momentum with zero data because I want it to be right

[wbrocks67]

I feel like I'm being gaslighted about Oz's supposed "momentum" here, I have frankly not seen any evidence of that but it seems like everyone has just accepted it as fact.

Because PA is a swing state and it seems impossible to believe this race could be more than a 2 point margin in either direction. It is not tied to reality in any sense, it is merely a guess based on the fact that it should be closer.

Why is it impossible though? I wouldn't say it's something super likely, but we've seen consistently that Oz's favorables are horrible, even after more weeks of "momentum", and Fetterman has not been hurt by any of the attacks over the last month that were supposed to hurt him.

I'm not even trying to be hopium about it, just literally going off the data we have. Fetterman and Oz's favorables have both been consistent for months now.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I feel like I'm being gaslighted about Oz's supposed "momentum" here, I have frankly not seen any evidence of that but it seems like everyone has just accepted it as fact.

Because PA is a swing state and it seems impossible to believe this race could be more than a 2 point margin in either direction. It is not tied to reality in any sense, it is merely a guess based on the fact that it should be closer.

Why is it impossible though? I wouldn't say it's something super likely, but we've seen consistently that Oz's favorables are horrible, even after more weeks of "momentum", and Fetterman has not been hurt by any of the attacks over the last month that were supposed to hurt him.

I'm not even trying to be hopium about it, just literally going off the data we have. Fetterman and Oz's favorables have both been consistent for months now.

I'm saying it more in a general sense that this race should not be favoring Fetterman so much, given the environment. If we're talking just Generic D vs. Generic R in a Biden midterm, this race should be a tossup, if not tilt R. So people are trying to course correct by saying Oz is gaining momentum instead of accepting that Fetterman is actually ahead.

[wbrocks67]

Oz is just so bad at this.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1574784047993290753

[soundchaser]

Even if the momentum is (theoretically) shifting because of the environment, I don’t know how you can objectively call the Oz campaign anything but an unmitigated disaster.

[wbrocks67]

Even if the momentum is (theoretically) shifting because of the environment, I don’t know how you can objectively call the Oz campaign anything but an unmitigated disaster.

Objectively, yes

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1574903759712526341

[Senator Incitatus]

That poll of Illinois got me thinking about how differently Mark Kirk's stroke was handled from Fetterman's. Possibly partly because Kirk's was so much earlier (2012), giving him more time to say some truly ridiculous things.

Even if the momentum is (theoretically) shifting because of the environment, I don’t know how you can objectively call the Oz campaign anything but an unmitigated disaster.

Oz himself is the disaster; his campaign has been well above par except releasing the crudité video, which was extremely overblown by very desperate opposing campaign.

[wbrocks67]

That poll of Illinois got me thinking about how differently Mark Kirk's stroke was handled from Fetterman's. Possibly partly because Kirk's was so much earlier (2012), giving him more time to say some truly ridiculous things.

Even if the momentum is (theoretically) shifting because of the environment, I don’t know how you can objectively call the Oz campaign anything but an unmitigated disaster.

Oz himself is the disaster; his campaign has been well above par except releasing the crudité video, which was extremely overblown by very desperate opposing campaign.

This is so incredibly tone deaf. Almost moreso than the crudite video, and that's saying something. Also, the video took off even before Fetterman started pushing it.

[GALeftist]

Even if the momentum is (theoretically) shifting because of the environment, I don’t know how you can objectively call the Oz campaign anything but an unmitigated disaster.

Oz himself is the disaster; his campaign has been well above par except releasing the crudité video, which was extremely overblown by very desperate opposing campaign.

Steps to run an above par campaign:

- Mock your opponent for having parental financial assistance to compensate for the low pay of public service while your candidate is worth hundreds of millions
- Mock your opponent's stroke recovery in your debate proposals
- Tie your opponent to Bernie Sanders rather than Joe Biden
- Allow your candidate to step on the abortion landmine
- Generic crime messaging which literally every Republican trots out

Seriously, I can't think of much else about the Oz campaign. What exactly have they done that's so masterful or even meaningfully different in a positive way from any other Senate campaign?

[kyc0705]

If you can't understand why the crudité video was so spectacularly and organically damaging to a candidate combatting the specific image that Oz is, I don't know what to tell you. The Fetterman campaign had a giftwrapped present handed to them by their opponent and they reacted in turn. That's not being "desperate," that's just competent campaigning.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

That poll of Illinois got me thinking about how differently Mark Kirk's stroke was handled from Fetterman's. Possibly partly because Kirk's was so much earlier (2012), giving him more time to say some truly ridiculous things.

Even if the momentum is (theoretically) shifting because of the environment, I don’t know how you can objectively call the Oz campaign anything but an unmitigated disaster.

Oz himself is the disaster; his campaign has been well above par except releasing the crudité video, which was extremely overblown by very desperate opposing campaign.

Cope

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1575234691245826048