Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455573465717743622?s=20

Okay, I also enjoy to have fun with anecdotal reports, but now we're bordering on ridiculous with "GOP likes to vote in the afternoon!!!"

I thought the talking point was that its the other way around. Nonetheless its silly because there probably is no difference.

[Xing]

The real question that has me at the edge of my seat... is when this thread will hit 200 pages.

[roxas11]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

This election was never about turnout in R base areas, especially given it’s an off year election. The GOP base is simply just not big enough where the GOP can win by turning them out. Youngkin’s goal has always been to peel off suburbanites in the metros that will have relatively high turnout, something that we can’t know the result of into the votes are counted.

Prognostication based on turnout is essentially useless. High turnout in the metros is more likely than not to be good for Dems, but the correlation is probably around .10 lol.

I think the larger problem for the GOP is that the underwhelming turnout so far does show that maybe Republicans were simply not as excited about this election as the media thought they would be. I remember the 2010 Virginia race and how fired up the Republicans were at the time and so far this current race is nothing like that at all.

The turnout is so far telling is us that there is very little enthusiasm for this race and if terry mcauliffe does win that would be a big warning sign for the GOP going forward

Now, as I said before, Glenn Youngkin can still win this election if things pick-up for the GOP throughout the day, but at some point the Republican turnout is going to have to get a lot better than it currently is otherwise terry mcauliffe is going to win this

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455573465717743622?s=20

Okay, I also enjoy to have fun with anecdotal reports, but now we're bordering on ridiculous with "GOP likes to vote in the afternoon!!!"

Just now? 

[wbrocks67]

Terry McAulife has now surpassed Youngkin in the Betting Odds lmao.

ANYWAY - it's also quite possible that if Dem areas DO have high turnout, it was a classic case of bed-wetting Dems thinking they had it in the bag or ones that didn't really care about the race until they saw Youngkin taking the lead in polls and realizing this sh**t could actually happen.

[Not Me, Us]

The real question that has me at the edge of my seat... is when this thread will hit 200 pages.

I'm gonna be bold and predict before polls close tonight.

[Non Swing Voter]

Terry McAulife has now surpassed Youngkin in the Betting Odds lmao.

ANYWAY - it's also quite possible that if Dem areas DO have high turnout, it was a classic case of bed-wetting Dems thinking they had it in the bag or ones that didn't really care about the race until they saw Youngkin taking the lead in polls and realizing this sh**t could actually happen.

That site appears to be designed to bilk low info voters out of money.  I wonder how many posters fell for it despite NOT being low info voters.

[LimoLiberal]

For fun

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/goparlington/status/1455571695604019204?s=20

Finally, some voter suppression we can get behind. A deal could be cut here, the Republicans get their voter ID requirements while Democrats can require masks. It's utterly nonsensical that a mask mandate would prevent anyone from voting, but here we are.

Permanent masks at poll sites? No thanks. Voter suppression of any kind is not ok.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The real question that has me at the edge of my seat... is when this thread will hit 200 pages.

It'll likely surpass the GA runoffs thread at some point and earn a spot in the "Top 10 Topics (by Replies)" list.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

For fun

Interesting, but the voting patterns are different.  Lots more early votes + people working from home so there's probably not going to be that last minute surge before polls close like 2017.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

My uncle who works at Nintendo told me Rayman was going to be in Smash.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

His previous 8 tweets are about PredictIt, lol.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

My uncle who works at Nintendo told me Rayman was going to be in Smash.

LMAO exactly. These are just getting ridiculous now

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Calling Roanoke suburban needs a bit of context. It's in a region where trends just aren't really strongly Dem at all, and it's heavily influenced by the GOP nature of the vast bulk of rural VA west of the Fall Line - an area where even the cities have a more Republican baseline.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

My uncle who works at Nintendo told me Rayman was going to be in Smash.

LMAO exactly. These are just getting ridiculous now

Notice the Dem tweets are all actual vote totals, evidence, analysis.  The GOP hacks are "My uncle knows someone who said Youngkin WIN!"

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

His previous 8 tweets are about PredictIt, lol.

speaking of predictit

Glenn Youngkin is currently sinking like a stone and terry mcauliffe has retaken the lead

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1455569230707974169

[LimoLiberal]

Wow, great news for Youngkin in Stafford

https://twitter.com/DRexrode/status/1455572108432527362

[fluffypanther19]

With all this confusion, i think i'm just going to wait until tonight for the results

Saying that knowing full well i'll be refreshing this page every 20-30 minutes

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow, great news for Youngkin in Stafford

https://twitter.com/DRexrode/status/1455572108432527362

I'm not sure super high turnout in Stafford is great for Youngkin.  It's a marginal county that tends to be more Dem if turnout is high (remember, Biden won it).  But it is an interesting data point. 

[Spectator]

Why is anyone giving Ben Tribbett any credibility at all? He lost it all on Election Day in 2017. When he was saying things alluding to all signs pointing to Gillespie.

[It’s so Joever]

Wow, great news for Youngkin in Stafford

https://twitter.com/DRexrode/status/1455572108432527362

I'm not sure super high turnout in Stafford is great for Youngkin.  It's a marginal county that tends to be more Dem if turnout is high (remember, Biden won it).  But it is an interesting data point. 

Ugh f**k, this is why we can’t have nice things.

[Non Swing Voter]

*Apparently there will be an update from Arlington's twitter account around 1:30pm EST*