Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/wetzler_jessica/status/1455551950766886917

FYI Bergton is the 2nd reddest precinct in the county.

More red = less early vote = more (relative) election day vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455550501853057024

I believe Loudoun was at 118,000 turnout in 2017. 

Now sitting at 84,000.  Seems very likely to surpass 2017 turnout.  Though that's to be expected even if turnout is lower as there is such a huge growth in registered voters. 

Any chance turnout % goes up due to the focus on the county in Beltway media?

Perhaps.  It looks to me like it will be similar percent turnout to 2017 but will result in a higher number of total votes due to population growth.  That should be ok for Dems as the population growth is all in Dem leaning areas.  But we'll see.

Which county is more important for Ds in terms of winning this election? Loudoun or PWC?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/wetzler_jessica/status/1455551950766886917

FYI Bergton is the 2nd reddest precinct in the county at 83.1% Trump ,Reddest is next door at 83.5%. It is the NW corner of the county.

Not surprising as Republicans waited til today to vote.  But lets keep in perspective that blue NOVA cities are already surpassing 50% total turnout.  Turnout seems to be elevated in the bluest and reddest areas both.  Looks like it's so so in some of the more marginal areas of the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455550501853057024

I believe Loudoun was at 118,000 turnout in 2017. 

Now sitting at 84,000.  Seems very likely to surpass 2017 turnout.  Though that's to be expected even if turnout is lower as there is such a huge growth in registered voters. 

Any chance turnout % goes up due to the focus on the county in Beltway media?

Perhaps.  It looks to me like it will be similar percent turnout to 2017 but will result in a higher number of total votes due to population growth.  That should be ok for Dems as the population growth is all in Dem leaning areas.  But we'll see.

Which county is more important for Ds in terms of winning this election? Loudoun or PWC?

PWC.  Margin will probably be higher and turnout percent historically lower.  It's a more populated county, so if they can boost turnout there it's a real problem for Youngkin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455550501853057024

I believe Loudoun was at 118,000 turnout in 2017. 

Now sitting at 84,000.  Seems very likely to surpass 2017 turnout.  Though that's to be expected even if turnout is lower as there is such a huge growth in registered voters. 

Any chance turnout % goes up due to the focus on the county in Beltway media?

Perhaps.  It looks to me like it will be similar percent turnout to 2017 but will result in a higher number of total votes due to population growth.  That should be ok for Dems as the population growth is all in Dem leaning areas.  But we'll see.

Which county is more important for Ds in terms of winning this election? Loudoun or PWC?

PWC.  Margin will probably be higher and turnout percent historically lower.  It's a more populated county, so if they can boost turnout there it's a real problem for Youngkin.

Yeah, high turnout especially in SE PWC will be important as a firewall of votes that can keep T-Mac ahead.

[brucejoel99]

"The kiss of death"

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1455569874961448967?s=20

Shontel Brown agre- oh, wait…

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is turnout in the Hampton Roads area looking like?

[wbrocks67]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

This election was never about turnout in R base areas, especially given it’s an off year election. The GOP base is simply just not big enough where the GOP can win by turning them out. Youngkin’s goal has always been to peel off suburbanites in the metros that will have relatively high turnout, something that we can’t know the result of into the votes are counted.

Prognostication based on turnout is essentially useless. High turnout in the metros is more likely than not to be good for Dems, but the correlation is probably around .10 lol.

Wait, how is high turnout in metros... bad for Ds?

And yes, Youngkin needs to get those crossover votes, but those crossover votes could easily get cancelled out if turnout is not good enough in those super-R areas either.

[Matty]

Why do you guys do this to yourselves? Why do you time after time pay attention to Twitter anecdotes about turnout? It’s absurd and stupid.


Some downright scam artist is on predictit right now single handily moving the market.

That is real money and frankly, fake comments to create a pun n dump scenario should be prosecuted

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

"The kiss of death"
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1455569874961448967?s=20

I've seen enough. Youngkin wins this race.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/goparlington/status/1455571695604019204?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Why do you guys do this to yourselves? Why do you time after time pay attention to Twitter anecdotes about turnout? It’s absurd and stupid.


Some downright scam artist is on predictit right now single handily moving the market.

That is real money and frankly, fake comments to create a pun n dump scenario should be prosecuted

funny enough, I came here to say that betting markets are moving towards T-Mac. Betting markets are typically a whole mess though

but FWIW, it was Youngkin 55/T-Mac 45 earlier, and now it's approaching Youngkin 51/T-Mac 49

[kwabbit]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

This election was never about turnout in R base areas, especially given it’s an off year election. The GOP base is simply just not big enough where the GOP can win by turning them out. Youngkin’s goal has always been to peel off suburbanites in the metros that will have relatively high turnout, something that we can’t know the result of into the votes are counted.

Prognostication based on turnout is essentially useless. High turnout in the metros is more likely than not to be good for Dems, but the correlation is probably around .10 lol.

Wait, how is high turnout in metros... bad for Ds?

And yes, Youngkin needs to get those crossover votes, but those crossover votes could easily get cancelled out if turnout is not good enough in those super-R areas either.

High turnout in NOVA is good for Democrats, that’s not what I’m saying. It’s just that turnout figures have essentially zero predictive power. As election as election has shown, predicting from e-day turnout reports is a fool’s errand. You might be right 55 or 60% of the time, but that’s not much better than flipping a coin.

[Matty]

For no hard reason though. That is what is so dumb

We have zero data and the market is moving. Just don’t get it

I blame that early voting and democrat hack UMichvoter on Twitter, who election after election posts cherry picked stats

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/goparlington/status/1455571695604019204?s=20

BASED

[lfromnj]

For no hard reason though. That is what is so dumb

We have zero data and the market is moving. Just don’t get it

I blame that early voting and democrat hack UMichvoter on Twitter, who election after election posts cherry picked stats

Then buy Youngkin on predict it.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/goparlington/status/1455571695604019204?s=20

Finally, some voter suppression we can get behind. A deal could be cut here, the Republicans get their voter ID requirements while Democrats can require masks. It's utterly nonsensical that a mask mandate would prevent anyone from voting, but here we are.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

This election was never about turnout in R base areas, especially given it’s an off year election. The GOP base is simply just not big enough where the GOP can win by turning them out. Youngkin’s goal has always been to peel off suburbanites in the metros that will have relatively high turnout, something that we can’t know the result of into the votes are counted.

Prognostication based on turnout is essentially useless. High turnout in the metros is more likely than not to be good for Dems, but the correlation is probably around .10 lol.

Wait, how is high turnout in metros... bad for Ds?

And yes, Youngkin needs to get those crossover votes, but those crossover votes could easily get cancelled out if turnout is not good enough in those super-R areas either.

High turnout in NOVA is good for Democrats, that’s not what I’m saying. It’s just that turnout figures have essentially zero predictive power. As election as election has shown, predicting from e-day turnout reports is a fool’s errand. You might be right 55 or 60% of the time, but that’s not much better than flipping a coin.

I'd agree with you if we were looking at turnout in Virginia Beach or Chesterfield but looking at turnout in rural VA and NOVA does have a level of predictive power here.  It's not like VA is a 50/50 state.  Part of Youngkin's calculus is to get much better turnout in rural VA than in NOVA relative to 2017.  By monitoring what's going on in Arlington and PWC we know if that part of his equation is coming to fruition.  

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/goparlington/status/1455571695604019204?s=20

BASED

It’s literally illegal to do it, but whatever

I bet you call yourself a democracy fan

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/goparlington/status/1455571695604019204?s=20

BASED

It’s literally illegal to do it, but whatever

I bet you call yourself a democracy fan

I mean he's pretty honest.

Democracy is whenever Democrats and the more Democrats that win the more Democratic the process is

[Non Swing Voter]

You know, I'm starting to see a lot of complaints from the GOP on twitter and some expectation setting from GOP politicians today that we weren't seeing a few days ago.  Just saying...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455573465717743622?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/goparlington/status/1455571695604019204?s=20

BASED

It’s literally illegal to do it, but whatever

I bet you call yourself a democracy fan

Sometimes you have to do things you don't like to protect this country.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455573465717743622?s=20

Thats literally still the rich white areas that are pretty Dem anyways LMAO

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455573465717743622?s=20

Okay, I also enjoy to have fun with anecdotal reports, but now we're bordering on ridiculous with "GOP likes to vote in the afternoon!!!"