Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/WachsmannHD75/status/1453155695315009551

Let's see if HD-75 is the most likely GOP pick up of the night. If it is a solid pick up early in the night that bolds bad for the state Democrats as black turn out is likely very poor.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1455315176056659972?s=20

I don't understand why someone would donate to a campaign the night before the election? It seems completely useless.

Because it's legalized bribery. The goal of donating to a campaign isn't to help it win over votes, it's to bet on the winner. They can use that money to pay their consultant nephew to make a meme for all the donor cares. Who gives $10,000 because they believe in someone's platform?

[jamestroll]

As I stated on the other thread,

the jurisdictions to watch in Nova are Manassas and Manassas Park. If Trumpkin and the GOP are really regaining all the suburbanites back and Hispanics are trending heavily Republican, these would be the jurisdictions to watch.

[TML]

As I expected, there will be exit polls for this race. There was also exit polling from many other recent statewide elections here in this state (e.g. 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020), so comparing this year's exit polls relative to those in the recent past may also provide some hints as to where this race is headed.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

These tips are frankly useless. To provide some real guidance to this forum, here are GRIFF'S PATENTED 10 TIPS FOR SURVIVING ELECTION DAY

1. DO stay up all night on Election Eve. You can sleep when it's over. The more hours you're awake, the more prescient you become at discerning every morsel of Election Day information.

2. DON'T reign in expectations: after all, the Election Gods only give luck to those who dream for the sky!

3. DO overreact to every morsel of preliminary turnout data, including long/short lines, appearance of voters in line, turnout as a share of the previous election at a precinct during any portion of the day, and other observations. A good format to make you sound like an expert:

"Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]"

4. DON'T wait for the final exit polling data to drop at 7 PM: rather, latch onto reports from the preliminary exit polls at 5 PM and reassure yourself that this is definitely reflective of the final result.

5. DO let weather forecasts and reports allow you to draw big conclusions about the outcome. After all, thunderstorms mean Democrats lose by 40 points, hot weather makes old Republicans wilt in place, people used to snow and ice don't vote in snow and ice, etc.

6. DON'T wait around for an accurate representation of precincts to begin reporting votes before calling the race; instead, DO make broad proclamations about the race at 8 PM when Democrats are losing GA by 30 points and 7% of the vote has been counted.

7. DO attend Election Night watch parties and DO bring every mobile device you have, and remain glued to them rather than socializing with your peers.

8. DON'T take anything Wolf "Wow!" Blitzer has to say at face value. Seriously.

9. DO consume as many stimulants and mood-lifting substances as you can get your hands on throughout the day; especially when combined with #1, you'll be at peak performance just in time for poll closings.

10. DON'T behave rationally at the end of the night, win or lose. Close things out after hours of arguing with opposition supporters on social media by passing out in a pool of drool on your desk.

[jamestroll]

When Fairfax County releases their early vote election results tomorrow.. remember these things:


1) My vote will be among the first released with the batch yay!

2) Early voting is obviously less sensitive to momentum but let's see if Tmac is running behind Ayala and Herring in the early vote.

3) If Herring is not meeting his bench mark in Fairfax County, it will be a terrible night for the Democrats.

[Agafin]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

The early votes are already being counted as we speak.

[emailking]

Wow it's election day!

[swf541]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

[Non Swing Voter]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

[swf541]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

I BLESS THE RAINS DOWWWN IN NOOOOOOVVVVAAA

[Non Swing Voter]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

Actually the way the forecast has been changing I wouldn't be surprised if the weather is worse in SWVA / Shenandoah area.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

Actually the way the forecast has been changing I wouldn't be surprised if the weather is worse in SWVA / Shenandoah area. 

Jokes aside, is there anything to the idea that weather substantially influences turnout?

[Non Swing Voter]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

Actually the way the forecast has been changing I wouldn't be surprised if the weather is worse in SWVA / Shenandoah area. 

Jokes aside, is there anything to the idea that weather substantially influences turnout?

Not really, but given that the GOP base in VA is substantially older I wouldn't want tons of rain in rural VA if I were Youngkin.  Especially since he's banked far fewer early votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

Actually the way the forecast has been changing I wouldn't be surprised if the weather is worse in SWVA / Shenandoah area. 

Jokes aside, is there anything to the idea that weather substantially influences turnout?

Not really, but given that the GOP base in VA is substantially older I wouldn't want tons of rain in rural VA if I were Youngkin.  Especially since he's banked far fewer early votes.

I guess lots of voters are going to be carrying umbrellas. Especially in Northern Virginia and in the areas west of the Fall Line.

[Agafin]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

The early votes are already being counted as we speak.

Ok this is cool, so it'll be more like Florida where results are known extremely fast (less than 2 hours)?

And will there be a counting bias?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

The early votes are already being counted as we speak.

Ok this is cool, so it'll be more like Florida where results are known extremely fast (less than 2 hours)?

And will there be a counting bias?

A bunch of votes will appear counted at the very start after polls close, and those will be (at least part of) the early vote.  It will lean Dem because a lot of them will come from Fairfax and neighboring deep blue counties.

[jamestroll]

I am concerned with the disturbing number of Kevin McGrath for delegate signs in my HD.

That guy is psycho. Look at this website! mcgrath4va.com/

Granted the signs are in front of big houses or medians. Most people who live on big houses are Republicans in this area. Condos, apartments, townhouses etc are naturally going to have a lot more democrats.

But the fact that this guy has ground game support is disturbing

[LimoLiberal]

Rain in the forecast for NoVA...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1455315176056659972?s=20

I don't understand why someone would donate to a campaign the night before the election? It seems completely useless.

Because it's legalized bribery. The goal of donating to a campaign isn't to help it win over votes, it's to bet on the winner. They can use that money to pay their consultant nephew to make a meme for all the donor cares. Who gives $10,000 because they believe in someone's platform?

Yes and No.... basically a way of paying off campaign debts so there is more CiH for the next go around.

Not a PUB nor DEM scene, but small cash $ don't matter nearly as much in "Big Boy Elections".

Us small donors with $5-10 week or month deductions don't have the same pay to play as the big money donors....

We did awesome in the DEM Prims of '16 and '20, but reality is that both DEM and PUB parties are owned by big $$$$ when it comes to campaign contributions overall.

Unfortunately the whole idea of campaign finance reform got shot down with McCain-Feingold, and somehow the Supreme Court says this is "Freedom of Speech".

Mark my words, this is when American Democracy started to collapse to the point where internationally we are looking like a Banana Republic after the events of 1/6/21.

[Skye]

My God tweets need to be banned from this thread.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1455252222762176516

Diversity is a good thing. White people of course shouldn't be punished, but clearly something is going wrong there-as in many other areas-and more needs to be done to include minorities.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

My God tweets need to be banned from this thread.

Nah that’s half the fun watching the storm brew