Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know the same users that are Rs got 2K stimulus checks and maybe getting 300 a week more than everyone on UBI benefits called Unemployment, are the very ones trying to get Rs back in office

Mcconnell and Johnson already objected to Extended Stimulus benefits in the last session and Trump was for it.

They will work their hardest to keep Corporate taxes low and no Entitlements

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs will never be able to get total control the Senate maps, 2022/2024/26 with Ernst and Collins gonna lose, will prevent any more tax cuts for the rich

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 3-6, 1500 adults including 1243 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

RV:

Approve 52 (+2)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-1)

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 3-6, 1500 adults including 1243 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

RV:

Approve 52 (+2)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-1)

COVID-19 approval also up to +20. It was like 16-18 before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not 59 percent but what do you expect in a Covid Environment

[President Johnson]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 3-6, 1500 adults including 1243 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

RV:

Approve 52 (+2)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-1)

Seems like a bit of an outlier.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see it as an outlier, the voters are greatful of the 2K stimulus checks, but are concerned about the Covid cases growing. D's can win next yr but the Covid needs to zero in order for D's to succeed, hopefully it is but we have a homeless crisis that are super spreaders and they aren't mandated to get the vaccine.

On Skid Row they say they won't get vaccine, just like when we had TB, they won't get the chest x-ray when they test positive

Ordinary people aren't super spreaders, homeless are, but the Ds are ahead on Generic ballot it's gonna be a 2.5 or better Environment, I don't see the Rs ever being ahead on PVI. The last time they won was 2016, plus 1

[pbrower2a]

I recognize those stimulus checks as compensation for a miserable time of loneliness, hardship, and boredom -- and accepting such as necessary for dodging COVID-19. I have no idea how much I saved the system by avoiding a ventilator.

My brother lost his job, so I am giving about half of this one to him; he will probably have a job long before I do... $600 means that I will deny myself some much needed  travel to get the cobwebs out of my life, but so what? I have car repairs to get done, but those will have to wait.

Having what were supposed to be peak earning years in a time in which the economic mantra was "overwork and underpay them, load them with debt and gouge them, but remind them at all times that if those who own the gold make the rules or everything falls apart' in return for promises of a solution of all scarcity will solve all problems... well, our wonderful elites can certainly mess that up, can they not?

Maybe I can write that novel about a 'libertarian' dystopia in which the leaders believe Ayn Rand for themselves but offer the rest of Humanity nothing more than pie in the sky when you die.

   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's the problem with Biden and his infrastructure plan they are gonna spend 2T on a infrastructure, and D's need more stimulus money due to fact Covid is not over

The 1.9 T plan was solely based on the improvement of Covid cases, it's the same as last yr when Trump passed the 1200 it doesn't last

Infrastructure spending should be allowed but it should be scaled back until there is no more Covid, to spend on stimulus

Also, where are the Green Jobs, we surely expected more job growth than this. Most of the jobs that came back were Flight Attendant jobs for the Airlines, and the Insurrectionists Commission need to be restarted, the Ds are ceding this issue to Rs, they had them, back in Feb, but now that there isn't any Commission, Rs Approvals are going back up

[pbrower2a]

The recent spikes indicate that COVID-19 is not over. For me it is because I got my second shot three weeks ago, so the only reason for me to even wear a mask is to avoid being an @$$hole.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna be over, it's a virus spread by continued contacts with homeless in stores, buses trains, not based on going to Homeless community, they are all over, that's why there is TB

[pbrower2a]

We all play a game of prediction, trying to see whether some big election (and the 2024 Presidential election will be a big one) will play. From material adapted to Preliminaries for the 2024 Presidential election I have analysis based on the sensitivity of political advantages to time remaining.

I'm three years early for this to be relevant, but it will be the defining factor in the end:

As a rule I do not predict polling results except to expect more of the same. I am at least as much concerned with disapproval as with approval.

Now how important are leads with time? Close to Election Day, electoral leads of even 1% can give the leader nearly 2/3 of a chance of winning the state. Leads that may not look 'that bad' for the nominee behind in polling can go from troubling to ominous to politically lethal over a year even if the lead remains the same.

...  (from) Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)It relates probability well, and as I have suggested, being up 5% in a binary election a year before means little, being up 5% a month before the election is huge. It is from 2012, and it relates much other than elections (like sports, poker, and even chess). What it says of electoral leads as a campaign approaches its conclusion is telling.

On page 63, Figure 2-4 shows the probability of a Senate candidate winning (1998 to 2008) with a certain lead (1, 5, 10, and 20 points) at one year, six months, three months, one month, one week, and one day. Because statewide races for President are much like statewide races for the Senate -- with the qualification that Presidential nominees do not usually make appearances where they see themselves losing -- unless they really are losing nationwide.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

So what conclusions can I draw? You might be surprised that a five-point lead one month before Election Day is no less significant than a twenty-point lead one year before the election. Thus one hears things like Democrats saying "We have a chance of winning West Virginia if everything goes right" and Republicans say that they have a chance of winning Massachusetts... yadda, yadda, yadda. Or is it "Yabba, dabba, doo!" Likewise, being one point ahead on the day before the election is worth almost as much as being five points ahead six months before the election or even ten points ahead  a year before the election.

Polling can be surprisingly stable. But a 5% lead that doesn't mean much in November 2023 (59%, which is insignificant in difference between winning and losing, as there is plenty of time to catch up and plenty of time for events to unfold) is decisive (95% chance of winning) on Election Day in 2020. Electoral results are not so random as they might seem.  

Even a seeming 20% lead a year before the election is far from definitive. In 2009 I remember seeing predictions that Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was beyond the possibility of a meaningful challenge. She got a meaningful challenge, and a wave election that defeated a large number of incumbent Senators and flipped the House from majority D to majority R. A well-funded, well-organized campaign can flip majorities in both Houses in a midterm election -- especially then.
 
OK. Politicians cannot change direction on a dime. A leader who loses does acts of unpredictable incompetence or gets tripped up in a scandal. Senators may not be as likely to get the blame for military debacles and blunders of foreign policy -- but the President does. Positive events such as military victories and improvements in economic statistics are less swift to change perceptions than are bad events.

Besides, any early voting can muck up the probabilities -- most likely to the detriment of the eventual loser.

I'm applying at approval ratings and not at likely match-ups. You can imagine how many assumptions that involves, some of them actuarial. I remember seeing a prediction of the 2010 Senate race in Arkansas from 2009 in which Senator Blanche Lincoln seemed to have re-election locked up. Everything that could go wrong for her 2010 bid for re-election that could go wrong went wrong. 60-40 advantages can dissipate and disappear if the opposition surprises with a well-funded, well-organized campaign . This reminds us to not depend upon assessments based on our liking or a politician. I thought that Russ Feingold was a fine Senator and I think that Ron Johnson is execrable.  But even if Ron Johnson is a dreadful hack, he well pleases people who believe that profit and executive compensation are the only measures of economic virtue. People who believe that, if they aren't simply snobs, often have the money to support a political heel. Remember: Ron Johnson is the senior US Senator from Wisconsin and Russ Feingold isn't.

Money makes 'm three years early for this to be relevant, but it will be the defining factor in the end:

As a rule I do not predict polling results except to expect more of the same. I am at least as much concerned with disapproval as with approval.

Now how important are leads with time? Close to Election Day, electoral leads of even 1% can give the leader nearly 2/3 of a chance of winning the state. Leads that may not look 'that bad' for the nominee behind in polling can go from troubling to ominous to politically lethal over a year even if the lead remains the same.

  I just got my hands on Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)It relates probability well, and as I have suggested, being up 5% in a binary election a year before means little, being up 5% a month before the election is huge. It is from 2012, and it relates much other than elections (like sports, poker, and even chess). What it says of electoral leads as a campaign approaches its conclusion is telling.

On page 63, Figure 2-4 shows the probability of a Senate candidate winning (1998 to 2008) with a certain lead (1, 5, 10, and 20 points) at one year, six months, three months, one month, one week, and one day. Because statewide races for President are much like statewide races for the Senate -- with the qualification that Presidential nominees do not usually make appearances where they see themselves losing -- unless they really are losing nationwide.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

So what conclusions can I draw? You might be surprised that a five-point lead one month before Election Day is no less significant than a twenty-point lead one year before the election. Thus one hears things like Democrats saying "We have a chance of winning West Virginia if everything goes right" and Republicans say that they have a chance of winning Massachusetts... yadda, yadda, yadda. Or is it "Yabba, dabba, doo!" Likewise, being one point ahead on the day before the election is worth almost as much as being five points ahead six months before the election or even ten points ahead  a year before the election.

Polling can be surprisingly stable. But a 5% lead that doesn't mean much in November 2023 (59%, which is insignificant in difference between winning and losing, as there is plenty of time to catch up and plenty of time for events to unfold) is decisive (95% chance of winning) on Election Day in 2020. Electoral results are not so random as they might seem.  

Even a seeming 20% lead a year before the election is far from definitive. In 2009 I remember seeing predictions that Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was beyond the possibility of a meaningful challenge. She got a meaningful challenge, and a wave election that defeated a large number of incumbent Senators and flipped the House from majority D to majority R. A well-funded, well-organized campaign can flip majorities in both Houses in a midterm election -- especially then.
 
OK. Politicians cannot change direction on a dime. A leader who loses does acts of unpredictable incompetence or gets tripped up in a scandal. Senators may not be as likely to get the blame for military debacles and blunders of foreign policy -- but the President does. Positive events such as military victories and improvements in economic statistics are less swift to change perceptions than are bad events.

Besides, any early voting can muck up the probabilities -- most likely to the detriment of the eventual loser.[/quote]

20% edges can diminish and disintegrate over one year (although such a lead has an 81% chance of holding up well enough for a win). So imagine what three years can do. I recall seeing assessments from the spring and summer of 1929 that suggested that Herbert Hoover would be remembered as one of the greatest Presidents of all time, the 1928 landslide (in which Hoover won such then-unlikely states as Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas:



Who could have foreseen this sequel?



Well, the economy did go into the tank -- deeper and deeper, with no obvious end to the misery.

Gallup has polling for (sort-of) analogous times for Presidents newly-electedto  their first terms, starting with Truman and continuing to Biden.

Joe Biden's Presidential Job Approval Ratings -- Historical Comparisons
President   % Approve   Polling dates
Average for U.S. presidents      53   1938-2021
Average for elected presidents' first quarter      61   various
Other elected presidents in March of first year
Donald Trump   40   Mar 2017
Barack Obama   62   Mar 2009
George W. Bush   58   Mar 2001
Bill Clinton   53   Mar 1993
George H.W. Bush   59   Mar 1989
Ronald Reagan   60   Mar 1981
Jimmy Carter   72   Mar 1977
Richard Nixon   64   Mar 1969
John Kennedy   73   Mar 1961
Dwight Eisenhower   74   Mar 1953

Joe3 Biden is actually behind all other Presidents other than Trump at the same analogous time (early March)  at 54%. Of course ideological polarization is now severe. All of these Presidents except Kenndy  (nothing to do with his political acumen), Carter, and Trump got re-elected. Trump's 40% approval rating sticks out as a sign of inadequacy, but he came close to getting re-elected. despite so much scandal.

Even the early 72% approval rating that Carter had in March 1977 did not prevent him from losing in a landslide. But we know that story. Plenty of Republicans expect much the same with Joe Biden because in according with their values, he is absolutely awful.

Now here is why we rely upon approval ratings for any predictions at all. We can't predict events, but we get away from deciding that liberal hero Russ Feingold would win re-election in 2010 and 2016 against the hideous hack Ron Johnson. But know well: Ron Johnson is the senior US Senator from Wisconsin and Russ Feingold isn't. Ron Johnson has richly well rewarded  those who funded his campaign as their reliable stooge on regulation, taxes, and spending. If nothing matters but high profits, high executive compensation, bloated rents, low taxes, and lax regulation, then Senator Ron Johnson is a dream. Sometimes those who own the gold make the rules.

Events will happen. There will be wars and rumors of war. Stock market valuations are often on a wild rollercoaster ride. Maybe there will be a peaceful settlement of the Korean conflict that leads to a free-enterprise, democratic, non-aligned Korea with the consent of its neighbors.  On the other hand, maybe the Emperor-in-all-but-Name of North Korea will fire nuclear-armed missiles at Seoul, Tokyo, and Los Angeles where they will detonate. Maybe one of our shaky allies will undergo a revolution such as the one in Iran that toppled the Shah.

If nothing remarkable happens, then Joe Biden wins re-election handily against any Republican nominee that you can imagine.         
   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 7-8, 1005 adults

Approve 56 (+2)
Disapprove 37 (-4)

Note: this poll has been quite bouncy in recent weeks.

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 7-8, 1005 adults

Approve 56 (+2)
Disapprove 37 (-4)

Note: this poll has been quite bouncy in recent weeks.

If  this is so in 2024, then President Biden wins in a landslide if he wants to run again.

[It’s so Joever]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 7-8, 1005 adults

Approve 56 (+2)
Disapprove 37 (-4)

Note: this poll has been quite bouncy in recent weeks.

If  this is so in 2024, then President Biden wins in a landslide if he wants to run again.

It’s a f**king ipsos poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 7-8, 1005 adults

Approve 56 (+2)
Disapprove 37 (-4)

Note: this poll has been quite bouncy in recent weeks.

If  this is so in 2024, then President Biden wins in a landslide if he wants to run again.

It’s a f**king ipsos poll.

Don't you realize females are tunimg out again on Rs due to the Gaetz, Floyd and Voter suppression laws, we are reverting right back to where Rs were right after Jan 6th, males aren't the only ones that voted.

Also, there are alot of Arabs that voted R in 2020 prior to Insurrectionists

Floyd trial and Gaetz story is hurting the brand R name

If Biden is at 56 Approvals Hassan or WARNOCK aren't losing

[It’s so Joever]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 7-8, 1005 adults

Approve 56 (+2)
Disapprove 37 (-4)

Note: this poll has been quite bouncy in recent weeks.

If  this is so in 2024, then President Biden wins in a landslide if he wants to run again.

It’s a f**king ipsos poll.

Don't you realize females are tunimg out again on Rs due to the Gaetz, Floyd and Voter suppression laws, we are reverting right back to where Rs were right after Jan 6th, males aren't the only ones that voted.

Also, there are alot of Arabs that voted R in 2020 prior to Insurrectionists

Floyd trial and Gaetz story is hurting the brand R name

If Biden is at 56 Approvals Hassan or WARNOCK aren't losing

😍 OC noticed me!

[pbrower2a]

The news has been very bad for the GOP. The shame of the January 6 Putsch isn't going away. Much of what the Georgia GOP has done through the state legislature will not pass Constitutional muster if it is ever tried. A state legislature nullifying an electoral result in the absence of overt fraud? There had better be overt fraud or technical failure that invalidates an election altogether, and if there is any question in such an event, the solution in the Electoral College is to invalidate the State's participation in the vote in the Electoral College. Matt Gaetz has a stench attached to his reputation that cannot be eliminated as can skunk spray.

The only good thing going for the GOP is that it still has the money machine for supporting reactionary pols willing to do the political cut-throat work on behalf of the heels who pay them. The bad news for the GOP is that people are getting wiser to the old trick.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah their chances of capturing the House is null at this point, you haven't seen much of Mccarthy since the Gaetz story


Boehner already said that Trump Insurrectionists spoiled Rs chances in the Midterms

[Senator Spark]

Biden has a higher disapproval than Obama, Bush, and Clinton so far. Not a great sign for re-election as of now. But the country is more polarized now more than ever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course he does, he along with Harris said, they alone can, not just get people vaccinated, but END COVID

But, the Senate maps are against the Rs, unless they do like they did in 2016, force D's to lose seats in 2022, 2024 Senate map gives Biden the 291 EC map, with Casey securing the critical battleground state of all PA, just like Fetterman does in 2022, he has WC Females appeal due to being tall

But buyers remorse is starting to set in and he needs to stop cases from rising and do something about

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden has a higher disapproval than Obama, Bush, and Clinton so far. Not a great sign for re-election as of now. But the country is more polarized now more than ever.

40% of the country is in the MAGA death cult, so Biden is going to suffer from early polarization.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not over, we have to wait til next yr before we know the Vaccines worked, but Homeless people whom spread the virus aren't gonna get vaccinated If they aren't mandated.

[pbrower2a]

The relevant metric for establishing the absolute floor for the GOP nominee for President is the percentage of the electorate that endorses the January Putsch. Such is a measure of the totalitarian Right in America.  People who can justify that insurrection do not recognize the legitimacy of Presidential elections that their side does not lose, at least if their nominee is on the Right side of the spectrum.

Only two living Republican nominees for President have lost a Presidential election without staging a call for reversing the electoral results. Bob Dole has been silent about this, as one could reasonably expect from someone so extremely old, and Mitt Romney heartily condemned the stunt.    

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Covid isn't gone by next Summer, the South is gonna vote Red and that can hurt Ds in TX, FL, we know that's where the House is gonna be decided in Red TX and FL, they are gaining 6 seats

That's why I criticized your TX map